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Accurate and reliable wind direction prediction is important for improving wind power conversion efficiency and operation safety. In this paper, a two-phase deep learning model is proposed and constructed for high-performance short-term wind direction forecasting. In the first phase, a hybrid data processing strategy, including data reconstruction, outlier deletion, dimension reduction, and sequence decomposition, is proposed to extract the most meaningful information from practical data. Then, in the second phase, a robust echo state network is developed for wind direction forecasting. In addition, its hyper-parameters are optimized using an improved flower pollination algorithm (IFPA) to achieve high efficiency. Experiments conducted on data from real wind farms validate the proposed hybrid data processing method. Finally, comparisons with benchmark prediction models show that the proposed network achieves superior performance. • A two-phase short-term wind direction prediction model is proposed. • Hybrid data processing method is used to extract data's most meaningful information. • Improved echo state network (ESN) is developed in prediction modeling. • An improved flower pollination algorithm is proposed to optimize ESN's parameters. • The proposed model is validated efficient and effective in wind direction prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To schedule wind power efficiently and to mitigate the adverse effects caused by wind's intermittency and variability, an advanced wind power prediction model is proposed in this paper. This model is a combined model via switching different data-driven chaotic time series models. First, inputs of this model come from the reconstructed data based on the chaotic characteristics of wind power time series. Second, three different data mining algorithms are used to construct wind power prediction models individually. To obtain a regime for switching optimal models, a Markov chain is trained. Then, weights of different data-driven modes are calculated by the Markov chain switching regime, and used in the final combined model for wind power prediction. The industrial data from actual wind farms is studied. Results of the proposed model are compared with that of non-reconstructed input data, traditional data-driven models and two typical combined models. These results validate the superiority of proposed model on improving wind power prediction accuracy. • Wind power prediction is realized by chaotic time series and switching regime. • Chaotic wind power time series is analyzed and reconstructed as model inputs. • Different data-driven models are trained as prediction modes. • A regime constructed by Markov chain is proposed for modes switching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]