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Global monsoon over land (GM_L) have significant variations in their dominated area (GMA_L). The quantitative assessment of changes in GMA_L is essential for understanding spatial environment impacts and the underlying driving mechanism of GM_L evolution. Simulation results of a suite of transient climate evolution simulation over the last 21,000 years (TraCE21ka) and five-model ensemble outputs of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project in their latest phase (fourth, PMIP4-CMIP6) are analyzed to study the changes in global, hemispheric and six sub-monsoon areas over the past 21 ka over land. Both datasets can reproduce large-scale characteristics of GMA_L variability, although there are differences in the magnitudes of their changes. Compared to 0 ka, TraCE21ka simulations reveal that GMA_L reduced by about 4.89 × 106 km2 (decreased by 10.89%) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21–18 ka), and reached a maximum of 46.61 × 106 km2 (increased by 3.83%) during the middle Holocene (MH, 9–6 ka). In comparison, the results of PMIP4-CMIP6 yield a smaller change of GMA_L during the LGM (decreased by 3.72%) and a larger magnitude of GMA_L during the MH (increased by 4.73%). The analysis of GMA_L over the past 21 ka reveals the varying influences of external forcing, with insolation playing a dominant role. Rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG) and ice sheet melting have induced a stepwise expansion in GMA_L during the last deglaciation, superimposed with several abrupt millennial-scale weakened monsoon events under meltwater fluxes (MWF) forcing. After that, insolation caused a gradually declining trend in GMA_L during the Holocene. The position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) under orbital forcing, leading to an anti-phase reaction between Northern Hemisphere monsoon areas (NHMA_L) and Southern Hemisphere monsoon areas (SHMA_L), particularly after 9 ka. Among the six sub-monsoons, they show diverse variations and regional characteristics under different forcings. Although regional monsoons like Indonesia-Australia monsoon (IAM) exhibit nonlinear behavior due to internal variabilities, the overall response of global monsoons to external forcing is predominantly linear. In addition, changes in the hydrological processes can indicate the formation and expansion of monsoon domains. Moisture budget shows that thermodynamic effect has always dominated monsoon hydrological cycles over the past 21 ka. The differences in regional monsoon hydrological processes arise from the dynamic effect. Moreover, δ18O records have been used to test these numerical simulation results. Which, together with diverse thermodynamic and dynamic component configurations of terrestrial paleo-monsoon variations, would help to better understand the underlying mechanism of global monsoon and its influences in the future. • Quantitative reconstruction of global terrestrial monsoon areas at orbital-millennial timescales over past 21 ka. • Varying differences of global, hemispheric and six sub-monsoon areas between TraCE21ka and PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble results. • Quantifying the contribution of each single-forcing experiment relative to the all-full forcing experiments. • Differences in regional terrestrial monsoon hydrological cycle are affected by dynamic component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose an iterative approach within a threshold quantile regression framework to identify sequential structural breaks. We apply it to a time series analysis with a focus on establishing a connection between structural breaks in the gasoline consumption function and extreme events in the economy. The estimated structural breaks and piecewise relationship between Australia's automobile gasoline consumption and household disposable income are consistent with economic intuition. Moreover, the heterogeneity in their relation across various quantiles and over different time periods divided by the identified structural breaks is revealed in a systematic manner. The comparison with a state-of-practice approach demonstrates the validity and efficiency of our approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite Australia's high reliance on coal for electricity generation, no study has addressed the extent to which mercury (Hg) deposition has increased since the commissioning of coal-fired power plants. We present stratigraphic data from lake sediments in the Hunter Valley (New South Wales) and Latrobe Valley (Victoria), where a significant proportion of Australia's electricity is generated via coal combustion. Mercury deposition in lake sediments increased in the 1970s with the commissioning of coal-fired power plants, by a factor of 2.9-times in sediments of Lake Glenbawn (Hunter Valley) and 14-times in Traralgon Reservoir (Latrobe Valley). Sediments deposited after the commissioning of power plants have distinct Hg isotope compositions, similar to those of combusted coals. Mercury emission, estimated using an atmospheric model (CALPUFF), was higher in the Latrobe Valley than in the Hunter Valley. This is a result of higher Hg concentrations in lignite coal, lax regulation and older pollution-control technologies adopted by coal-fired power plants in the Latrobe Valley. Near-source deposition of Hg in Australia is significantly higher than North America and Europe, where better emission controls (e.g. wet flue gas desulfurization) have been in effect for decades. The challenge for Australia in years to come will be to ratify the Minamata Convention and develop better regulation policies to reduce Hg emissions. [Display omitted] • Coal accounts for 62% of total electricity generated in Australia. • Australia-Pacific is the region with the largest gap in Hg knowledge in the world. • Hg emissions and deposition in Australia are still increasing since ~1970s. • High near-source deposition has identified in urban areas of Victoria. • Hg emission regulations in Australia starkly contrast those of counterpart countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Molecular biomarker-derived proxies in a marine sediment core from the eastern Timor Sea have been employed to track changes in the Australian–Indonesian monsoon system over the time period from the penultimate glacial to the last interglacial. The average chain length of n -alkanes originating from terrestrial higher plants reveals an expansion of woody plants during both Termination II and the last interglacial with respect to the penultimate glacial. This is consistent with previous reconstructions for the last glacial–interglacial cycle, indicating that water-stress conditions during dry seasons of southern Indonesia should have been relieved during interglacials and deglacials relative to glacials. However, in contrast to an only muted response during Heinrich Stadial 1, the vegetation composition showed a dramatic and prominent change during Heinrich Stadial 11. This was probably caused by a much more significant and longer duration iceberg discharge event to the northern North Atlantic during Heinrich Stadial 11 relative to Heinrich Stadial 1, which exerted a significant influence on the tropical hydrological cycle and monsoon rainfall seasonality. In addition, marine algae-derived biomarkers are used to reconstruct primary productivity variations, which are in agreement with previous studies from the same area. The precessional cyclicity of paleo-productivity variations is possibly induced by changes in the Australian–Indonesian winter monsoon intensity, showing a correlation with boreal winter insolation. However, this phase relationship is in contrast to the inference based on other lines of evidence, which suggests strong winter monsoon strength during boreal summer insolation maxima. New winter monsoon proxies are therefore required to clarify this discrepancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]