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The Mendocino Triple Junction region is the most seismically active part of the Cascadia Subduction Zone. The northward moving Pacific plate collides with the subducting Gorda plate causing intense internal deformation within it. Here we show that the stress field rotates rapidly with depth across the thrust interface from a strike-slip regime within the subducting plate, reflecting the Pacific plate collision, to a thrust regime in the overriding plate. We utilize a dense focal mechanism dataset, including observations from the Cascadia Initiative ocean bottom seismograph experiment, to constrain the stress orientations. To quantify the implications of this rotation for the strength of the plate boundary, we designed an inversion that solves for the absolute stress tensors in a three-layer model subject to assumptions about the strength of the subducting mantle. Our results indicate that the shear stress on the plate boundary fault is likely no more than about ∼50 MPa at ∼20 km depth. Regardless of the assumed mantle strength, we infer a relatively weak megathrust fault with an effective friction coefficient of ∼0 to 0.2 at seismogenic depths. Such a low value for the effective friction coefficient requires a combination of high fluid pressures and/or fault-zone minerals with low inherent friction in the region where a great earthquake is expected in Cascadia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratigraphic, sedimentologic (including CT 3D X-ray tomography scans), foraminiferal, and radiocarbon analyses show that at least six of seven abrupt peat-to-mud contacts in cores from a tidal marsh at Talbot Creek (South Slough, Coos Bay), record sudden subsidence (relative sea-level rise) during great megathrust earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. Data for one contact are insufficient to infer whether or not it records a great earthquake—it may also have formed through local, non-seismic, hydrographic processes. To estimate the amount of subsidence marked by each contact, we expanded a previous regional modern foraminiferal dataset to 174 samples from six Oregon estuaries. Using a transfer function derived from the new dataset, estimates of coseismic subsidence across the six earthquake contacts vary from 0.31 m to 0.75 m. Comparison of subsidence estimates for three contacts in adjacent cores shows within-site differences of ≤0.10 m, about half the ±0.22 m error, although some estimates may be minimums due to uncertain ecological preferences for Balticammina pseudomacrescens in brackish environments and almost monospecific assemblages of Miliammina fusca on tidal flats. We also account for the influence of taphonomic processes, such as infiltration of mud with mixed foraminiferal assemblages into peat, on subsidence estimates. Comparisons of our subsidence estimates with values for correlative contacts at other Oregon sites suggest that some of our estimates are minimums and that Cascadia's megathrust earthquake ruptures have been heterogeneous over the past 3500 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Quantitative estimates of land-level change during the giant AD 1700 Cascadia earthquake along the Oregon coast are inferred from relative sea-level changes reconstructed from fossil foraminiferal assemblages preserved within the stratigraphic record. A transfer function, based upon a regional training set of modern sediment samples from Oregon estuaries, is calibrated to fossil assemblages in sequences of samples across buried peat-mud and peat-sand contacts marking the AD 1700 earthquake. Reconstructions of sample elevations with sample-specific errors estimate the amount of coastal subsidence during the earthquake at six sites along 400 km of coast. The elevation estimates are supported by lithological, carbon isotope, and faunal tidal zonation data. Coseismic subsidence at Nehalem River, Nestucca River, Salmon River, Alsea Bay, Siuslaw River and South Slough varies between 0.18 m and 0.85 m with errors between 0.18 m and 0.32 m. These subsidence estimates are more precise, consistent, and generally lower than previous semi-quantitative estimates. Following earlier comparisons of semi-quantitative subsidence estimates with elastic dislocation models of megathrust rupture during great earthquakes, our lower estimates for central and northern Oregon are consistent with modeled rates of strain accumulation and amounts of slip on the subduction megathrust, and thus, with a magnitude of 9 for the AD 1700 earthquake. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Changes in species assemblages of intertidal foraminifera can be used to estimate the amount of earthquake-related subsidence during plate-boundary earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. The accuracy and precision of foraminiferal methods in paleoenvironmental reconstruction is underpinned by the relations between contemporary taxa and their environment, which are used to calibrate fossil foraminiferal assemblages in sediment sequences. A contemporary training set of surface sediment samples from five intertidal marshes along the Oregon coast was used to determine foraminiferal distributions and prevailing environmental control(s) along elevational transects. Dominant taxa include Balticammina pseudomacrescens, Trochamminita irregularis, Haplophragmoides wilberti, Trochammina inflata, Jadammina macrescens and Miliammina fusca. Unconstrained cluster analysis and detrended correspondence analysis was used to identify two elevation-dependent faunal zones: Faunal Zone I (upland, high marsh, middle marsh) dominated by Balticammina pseudomacrescens, Haplophragmoides wilberti and Trochammina inflata, and Faunal Zone II (low marsh and tidal flat) dominated by Miliammina fusca. Site-specific differences in assemblages at three marshes enabled further subdivision of Faunal Zone I. Zone Ia is based on one or more of Balticammina pseudomacrescens, Trochammina inflata, Trochamminita irregularis and Haplophragmoides sp., and Zone Ib on Jadammina macrescens, Haplophragmoides sp., Trochammina inflata and Miliammina fusca. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and partial CCA of the training set from the Nehalem River marsh transect was used to infer that the zonation of foraminifera is elevation-dependent (39% of explained variance). A transfer function was developed to reconstruct sudden changes in relative sea-level during plate-boundary earthquakes in Oregon. The results indicate a robust performance of the transfer function (r jack 2 =0.82) with the error estimate (RMSEPjack =0.20m) comparable to local and regional transfer functions from other temperate marshes. To illustrate the potential of the technique, the transfer function was applied to reconstruct subsidence during the AD 1700 earthquake using at Alsea Bay, Oregon. The reconstruction (0.18±0.20m) is less than half the subsidence estimate of Nelson et al. [2008. Great-earthquake palogeoesy and tsunamis of the past 2000years at Alsea Bay, central Oregon coast, USA. Quaternary Science Reviews, 27, 747–768] using their foraminiferal transfer function, perhaps because of differences in taxonomy and the species relationship to elevation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The basaltic Tseax flow is the product of one of only two eruptions in western Canada during the last thousand years. Reinterpretations of 14C and paleomagnetic data indicate that Tseax volcano last erupted between 1668 and 1714 CE. This date straddles that of the Cascadia megathrust earthquake of 26 January 1700, whose rupture lay 450 km to the south. Hence, the largest recent earthquake in northwest North America may have rejuvenated an existing magmatic system and produced this isolated flow. Although the flow is chemically uniform there are significant textural differences between the early and late parts of the flow. It is proposed that both magmatic components were contained within a steep conduit. Gas produced by degassing of magma in the lower part of the conduit ascended, heated magma in the upper part, coarsening plagioclase, and then continued to the surface along fissures. This stable configuration was disrupted by the Cascadia earthquake: dilatation widened the conduit and enabled both magmas to rise to the surface along existing fissures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]