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Highlights • Simulations indicate that climate change will impact future tree species distributions. • Results are highly sensitive to parameters controlling tree persistence under warmer climate conditions. • Results are less sensitive to disturbance regimes (fire and harvesting) and tree dispersal limitations. Abstract From a forest management stand point, it is crucial to know which ecological processes are most likely to drive changes in tree species distributions and abundance under warming climate conditions. In this study, we simulated forest dynamics in a 703,580 km2 territory that straddles the boreal and temperate broadleaved forest biomes in the province of Québec (Canada), under a RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. The objective was to evaluate how future forest composition is sensitive to variation in four potential drivers: fire regimes, harvesting regimes, the capacity of tree species to persist under warmer climate conditions, and species capabilities for long-distance colonization. The results indicate that forest composition in 2100 is most sensitive to variation in the parameters controlling species persistence when conditions become warmer or dryer than the conditions found in their current range. Concretely, this points to avenues of research to improve the accuracy of our predictions regarding the impacts of climate change on forest composition. For instance, we should further investigate the underlying ecological (competition) or physiological (drought stresses) processes that influence tree species persistence at the receding edge of their current distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling landscape dynamics is crucial for assessing the potential effectiveness of upgraded land management. In fire-prone regions, wildfires play a critical role in shaping landscapes, and land-use and fire suppression policies strongly influence landscape patterns and fire regimes. In this paper, we introduce REMAINS, a spatially explicit process-based model, implemented as a user-friendly R package. REMAINS enables the simulation of fire-landscape dynamics under different land-use and fire management scenarios. The package incorporates the spatial interaction of fire-related processes including fire ignition, spread and extinction, as well as vegetation dynamics such as including natural succession and post-fire regeneration. With a comprehensive set of functions, REMAINS allows for the simulation of two fire-suppression strategies, prescribed fire approaches, and land-use policy scenarios. Furthermore, REMAINS facilitates the assessment of the impacts of such management options on fire regime attributes. This model enhances capacity building beyond academia and supports policy- and decision-making process. • We introduce REMAINS: a fire-landscape model implemented as R package. • The package reproduces spatial interactions between fire-related processes and vegetation dynamics. • REMAINS allows simulating unplanned and planned fire under land-use policies. • REMAINS allows simulating integrated wildfire management scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire spread modelling in landscape fire succession models needs to improve to handle uncertainty under global change processes and the resulting impact on forest systems. Linking fire spread patterns to synoptic-scale weather situations are a promising approach to simulating fire spread without fine-grained weather data. Here we present MedSpread—a model that evaluates the weights of five landscape factors in fire spread performance. We readjusted the factor weights for convective, topography-driven and wind-driven fires (n = 123) and re-assessed each fire spread group's performance against seven other control simulations. Results show that for each of the three fire spread patterns, some landscape factors exert a higher influence on fire spread simulation than others. We also found strong evidence that separating fires by fire spread pattern improves model performances. This study shows a promising link between relevant fire weather information, fire spread and fire regime simulation under global change processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Comprehensive climate-sensitive tree-level models for stand dynamics fit for 27 sp in Spain. • Models are integrated into a forest projection system to perform country/regional level simulations. • Spatial, temporal and environmental effects are addressed. • Allows multi-objective climate sensitive forest planning at stand, landscape & regional level. • A regional full simulation is assessed with alternative climatic & management scenarios. Projecting forest dynamics as a function of alternative management strategies and climatic conditions is key to develop sound forest policy and management planning. In Spain there is a need for a full set of climate-sensitive individual-tree growth and yield models suitable for country-level simulations. In this paper we present environmentally driven models for forest stand dynamics based on distance-independent individual-tree growth and yield. The data for model calibration are based on the second, third and fourth surveys of the Spanish National Forest Inventory, including 50,359 plots and 838,620 trees, representing a broad gradient in forest types and environmental conditions. The results develop a total of 182 models for diameter increment, height increment, total height, survival and ingrowth for 27 species and species groups. The models are integrated into a full forest projection system to perform simulations of forest dynamics and resulting changes in the provision of ecosystem services, including the effects of climate, and forest management. Its potential is illustrated through an array of simulations of forest dynamics in the region of Catalonia under alternative climatic and management scenarios. The resulting models and projections provide a solid basis for the simulation of national or regional climate-sensitive forest scenarios, with the possibility of being applied to other regions, and may be used for future management and planning efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• High tree species richness does not always translate into functionally rich forests. • Assessing forest stand vulnerability to disturbances is a useful management guide. • Functionally enriching via natural regeneration or planting new species is proposed. • Foster regeneration of functionally rare species to enhance forest adaptive capacity. • Low-level planting of new species contributes to functional connectivity. Given the uncertainty of global environmental changes, forest managers need reliable and science-based tools to support planning decisions. To evaluate the state of forests as well as the outcomes of new management practices aimed at fostering the adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems, methods and metrics for practitioners should be self-explanatory, based on easily-available data, and straightforward to use. Here, we present and apply the functional network approach, a trait-based approach that scales-up from species functional traits to community-level functional diversity and from stands to landscape-level functional connectivity, to guide sustainable forest management when faced with global change. In the functional network approach, (1) tree and shrub species are clustered into functional groups based on selected functional traits, (2) forest stands become the nodes of the network, and (3) functional traits can be exchanged between nodes according to species dispersal capacity via functional connectivity. We complemented the functional network approach with an assessment of stand-level vulnerability to natural disturbances. This new approach was applied to a mixed temperate forest landscape in south-eastern Canada to test four management scenarios varying in intensity (5–40% of the landscape area) and silvicultural strategy, including planting tree species from rare functional groups or harvesting tree species from predominant functional groups. Managed stands were ranked according to functional diversity and vulnerability to disturbances, and species were considered for planting based on their contribution to functional diversity and level of vulnerability. We found that a species-rich forest may be a functionally poor ecosystem so its adaptive capacity and resilience may be strongly compromised in the face of high global uncertainty. In addition, both functional diversity and connectivity increased with more intense management, and when functionally rare species were planted. By adopting the functional network approach, forest practitioners have a new simple-to-use tool to evaluate landscape-level functional diversity, vulnerability, and functional connectivity. This tool can be used to inform both plans for mitigating natural disturbances and strategies for enhancing overall ecosystem adaptive capacity to future environmental conditions and societal demands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]