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The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sectors contribute substantially to the net global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To reduce these emissions under the Paris Agreement, effective mitigation actions are needed that require engagement of multiple stakeholders. Emission reduction also requires that accurate, consistent and comparable datasets are available for transparent reference and progress monitoring. Availability of free and open datasets and portals (referred to as independent data) increases, offering opportunities for improving and reconciling estimates of GHG emissions and mitigation options. Through an online survey, we investigated stakeholders’ data needs for estimating forest area and change, forest biomass and emission factors, and AFOLU GHG emissions. The survey was completed by 359 respondents from governmental, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations, research institutes and universities, and public and private companies. These can be grouped into data users and data providers. Our results show that current open and freely available datasets and portals are only able to fulfil stakeholder needs to a certain degree. Users require a) detailed documentation regarding the scope and usability of the data, b) comparability between alternative data sources, c) uncertainty estimates for evaluating mitigation options, d) more region-specific and detailed data with higher accuracy for sub-national application, e) regular updates and continuity for establishing consistent time series. These requirements are found to be key elements for increasing overall transparency of data sources, definitions, methodologies and assumptions, which is required under the Paris Agreement. Raising awareness and improving data availability through centralized platforms are important for increasing engagement of data users. In countries with low capacities, independent data can support countries’ mitigation planning and implementation, and related GHG reporting. However, there is a strong need for further guidance and capacity development (i.e. ‘readiness support’) on how to make proper use of independent datasets. Continued investments will be needed to sustain programmes and keep improving datasets to serve the objectives of the many stakeholders involved in climate change mitigation and should focus on increased accessibility and transparency of data to encourage stakeholder involvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in soil organic carbon stocks depend on the management regime and a variety of environmental factors including climatic conditions and soil properties. So far, the dynamics of soil organic carbon have not been explicitly represented in global economic land use optimization models. Here, we apply an approach to represent soil organic carbon dynamics explicitly in a global bottom-up recursive dynamic partial equilibrium model using carbon response functions simulated with a biophysical process-based model. We project soil organic carbon emissions from European cropland to decrease by 40% from 64 MtCO 2 in 2010 to about 39 MtCO 2 in 2050 mainly due to saturation effect when soils converge toward their equilibrium after management, crop rotation, or land use change. Moreover, we estimate a soil organic carbon mitigation potential for European cropland between 9 and 38 MtCO 2 per year until 2050 for carbon prices between 10 and 100 USD/tCO 2 . The total European mitigation potential including co-benefits from the crop and livestock sector due to the carbon price is even higher with 60 MtCO 2 equivalents (eq) per year. Thus carbon sequestration in soils could compensate 7% of total emissions from agriculture within the EU, 10% when including co-benefits from the crop and livestock sector. However, as production is reallocated outside Europe with increasing carbon prices, emissions decrease in Europe but increase in the rest of the world (20 MtCO 2 eq). Preventing GHG emission leakage to the rest of the world would decrease the European soil organic carbon mitigation potential by around 9% and the total European mitigation potential including co-benefits by 16%. Nevertheless, the net global mitigation potential would still increase. We conclude that no significant contributions to emission reduction targets should be expected from the European cropland carbon sequestration options considered in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Differences between reported and modelled C emission values were compared. [•] Accounting method selected by countries best explained differences. [•] For some selected countries specific factors were identified to cause differences. [•] At the root of these differences are differences in input data. [•] These input differences are calling for better sharing of data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: With the increasing availability of European and global forest maps, users are facing the difficult choice to select the most appropriate map for their purposes. Many of these maps are potential input datasets for forest-related applications for the European Union (EU), due to their spatial extent and harmonised approach at the European level. However, they possess different characteristics in terms of spatial detail or thematic accuracy. Little attention has been paid to the effect of these characteristics on simulation models and the resultant policy implications. In this study we tested whether the choice of a forest map has substantial influence on model output, i.e. if output differences can be related to the input differences. A sensitivity analysis of the spatially explicit Global Forest Model (G4M) was performed using four different forest maps: the pan-European high resolution forest/non-forest map (FMAP), the Corine Land Cover (CLC), the Calibrated European Forest Map (CEFM) and the Global Land Cover (GLC). Finally, the impact of potential differences owing to input datasets on decision-making was tested in a selected case study: reaching the EU 10% biofuel target through enhanced utilization of forest biomass. The sensitivity analysis showed that the choice of the forest cover map has a major influence on the model outputs in particular at the country-level, while having less influence at the EU27 level. Differences between the input datasets are strongly reflected in the outputs. Similarly, depending on the choice of the input alternate options for decision-making were found within the hypothesized biofuel target (case study), demonstrating a substantial value of information. In general, it was demonstrated that input maps are the major driver of decision-making if forest resource outputs of the model are their basis. Improvement of the input forest map would result in immediate benefit for a better decision-making basis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Today, forests in the northern hemisphere are a sink for carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, partly due to changes in forest management practice and intensity. Parties of the Kyoto Protocol had the option to elect to account for direct human-induced carbon (C) sources and sinks from land management activities since 1990. The effect of age–class structure of a forest landscape resulting from past practices and disturbances before the reference year 1990 should be excluded, but methods for “factoring out” the effects of this age–class legacy on carbon emissions and removals are lacking. The legacy effect can be strong and can even overwhelm effects of post-1990 management. It therefore needs to be “factored out”, i.e., removed from the direct human-induced post-1990 effects. In this study we examine how the contributions to forest biomass carbon stock changes of (1) past (pre-1990) disturbances and harvest and (2) recent (post-1990) changes in forest management can be differentiated in present and future observable carbon dynamics in managed forest ecosystems. We also calculate the consequences of different accounting rules for the magnitude and direction of accountable C stock changes in European countries in the period 2013–2017. Different accounting approaches are compared in terms of applicability and their ability to provide incentives for management changes to increase carbon sinks and reduce carbon sources. We demonstrate implications of the various ways of accounting for a sample of European countries with different initial age–class structures. The current forest age–class distribution in countries determines whether and how many credits can be created by the various accounting approaches. We suggest an approach that includes a dynamic, forward-looking baseline as reference and list options to define such a baseline. Accounting of recent management change against such a baseline factors out the contribution of the legacy effect to accounting results and only rewards the effect of recent changes in forest management practices in support of climate change mitigation. We demonstrate that relatively simple, state-of-the-art forest models can factor out effects of past practices and past disturbances on present and future carbon stock changes. Factoring out of past practice effects is thus technically feasible but the numerical results are highly dependent on the choice of baseline which will be subject to negotiation. It is possible, however, to select a dynamic baseline that represents “business-as-usual”, and to isolate and account for only the changes in management. Changes in accounting rules will always be advantageous for some countries and disadvantageous for others, but using a dynamic “business-as-usual” baseline effectively removes the legacy of pre-1990 age–class effects, and thus overcomes one of the acknowledged shortcomings of the current accounting approach. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Industrialized countries agreed on a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. Many countries elected forest management activities and the resulting net balance of carbon emissions and removals of non-CO2 greenhouse gases by forest management in their climate change mitigation measures. In this paper a generic dynamic forestry model (FORMICA) is presented. It has an empirical basis. Several modules trace C pools relevant for the Kyoto Protocol and beyond: biomass, litter, deadwood and soil, and harvested wood products. The model also accounts for the substitution of fossil fuels by wood products and bioenergy. FORMICA was used to first study the model sensitivity and uncertainty based on data from Thuringia, a federal state of Germany, to determine the major sources of uncertainty in carbon accounting at different levels of carbon pool aggregation (biomass, ecosystem, forestry sector and enhanced forestry sector including the accumulated substitution effect). Rotation length and maximum increment contributed most to uncertainty in biomass. The influence of the latter did not diminish with higher level of pool aggregation. Uncertainty in the enhanced forestry sector was to a smaller degree controlled by product and substitution related parameters. Relative uncertainty decreased with the level of aggregation and comprehensiveness of the carbon budget. In a second step the model estimated the sink potential of the Thuringian forestry sector. The projected average biomass sink for the period of 2003–2043 of 0.6tCha−1 year−1 could be increased by 50% by broadening the perspective to the entire forestry sector, including substitution effects. A simulation of forest conservation on 20% of the forest area increased C fixation. However, even in the biomass C pool the expected C stock changes did not exceed the estimated uncertainty of 40%. A higher level of aggregation (i.e. the inclusion of soil and litter, product pool and substitution effects) decreases relative uncertainty but also diminishes differences between different management options. The analysis demonstrates that the choice of management mitigation options under an accounting scheme should include the impacts on forest products and of substitution effects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Forest biomass is a renewable resource that is increasingly utilised for bioenergy purposes in Sweden, which along with the extraction of industrial wood may conflict with biodiversity conservation. The aim of this paper is to present a method for integrated sustainability assessment of forest biomass extraction, particularly from bioenergy and biodiversity perspectives. The landscape simulator LandSim was developed and linked with models for the assessment of biomass yields and habitat networks representing prioritised biodiversity components. It was applied in a case study in Kronoberg County in southern Sweden. Forest growth and management were simulated for the period 2010–2110, following two land zoning scenarios, one applying even-aged forest management on all forest land except for protected areas (EAF-tot), and one applying continuous cover forest management on parts of the forest land, combined with protected areas and an intensified even-aged management on the other parts (CCF-int). The EAF-tot scenario implied higher yields of biomass feedstock for bioenergy, the CCF-int scenario only giving 66% of that yield, while the CCF-int scenario performed substantially better when it came to the habitat network indicators, if habitat suitability was ensured. Conclusively, the case study confirmed that the modelling framework of the LEcA tool, linking the landscape simulator LandSim with the biomass yield assessment and the habitat network model can be used for integrating main policy concerns when assessing renewable energy options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Preservation of biodiversity and reduction of deforestation are considered as key elements when addressing an increased use of bioenergy in the future. This paper presents different combinations of scenarios for global feedstock supply for the production of bioenergy under specified social and environmental safeguard provisions. The objectives of this study were threefold: a) to present a global perspective using an integrated modeling approach; b) to frame the boundaries for lower scale assessments; and c) to identify potential trade-offs to be considered in future research. The aggregate results, achieved through the application of an integrated global modeling cluster, indicate that under a high global demand for bioenergy by mid-century, biomass will to a large extent be sourced from the conversion of unmanaged forest into managed forest, from new fast-growing short-rotation plantations, intensification, and optimization of land use. Depending on the underlying scenario, zero net deforestation by 2020 could be reached and maintained with only a minor conversion of managed forests into other land cover types. Results further indicate that with rising populations and projected consumption levels, there will not be enough land to simultaneously conserve natural areas completely, halt forest loss, and switch to 100% renewable energy. Especially in the tropical regions of the southern hemisphere, it will be important to achieve a controlled conversion from unmanaged to sustainably managed forest as well as increased protection of areas for ecosystems services such as biodiversity. The study concludes with the recommendation to focus on targeted regional policy design and its implementation based on integrated global assessment modeling. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered are land and water supply impacts from population growth, and technical change, as well as forest and agricultural commodity demand shifts from population growth and economic development. The income impacts on food demand are computed with dynamic elasticities. Simulations with a global, partial equilibrium model of the agricultural and forest sectors show that per capita food levels increase in all examined development scenarios with minor impacts on food prices. Global agricultural land increases by up to 14% between 2010 and 2030. Deforestation restrictions strongly impact the price of land and water resources but have little consequences for the global level of food production and food prices. While projected income changes have the highest partial impact on per capita food consumption levels, population growth leads to the highest increase in total food production. The impact of technical change is amplified or mitigated by adaptations of land management intensities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]