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This paper sought to evaluate the occurrence of decompression sickness (DCS) after the application of a patent foramen ovale (PFO) screening and risk stratification strategy. PFO is associated with an increased risk of DCS. Recently, transcatheter closure was reported to reduce DCS occurrence in divers with a high-grade shunt. However, to date, there are no data regarding the effectiveness of any PFO screening and risk stratification strategy for divers. A total of 829 consecutive divers (age 35.4 ± 10.0 years, 81.5% men) were screened for PFO by means of transcranial color-coded sonography in the DIVE-PFO (Decompression Illness Prevention in Divers with a Patent Foramen Ovale) registry. Divers with a high-grade PFO were offered either catheter-based PFO closure (the closure group) or advised conservative diving (high grades). Divers with a low-grade shunt were advised conservative diving (low grades), whereas those with no PFO continued unrestricted diving (controls). A telephone follow-up was performed. To study the effect of the screening and risk stratification strategy, DCS occurrence before enrollment and during the follow-up was compared. Follow-up was available for 748 (90%) divers. Seven hundred and 2 divers continued diving and were included in the analysis (mean follow-up 6.5 ± 3.5 years). The DCS incidence decreased significantly in all groups, except the controls. During follow-up, there were no DCS events in the closure group; DCS incidence was similar to the controls in the low-grade group (HR: 3.965; 95% CI: 0.558-28.18; P = 0.169) but remained higher in the high-grade group (HR: 26.170; 95% CI: 5.797-118.160; P < 0.0001). The screening and risk stratification strategy using transcranial color-coded sonography was associated with a decrease in DCS occurrence in divers with PFO. Catheter-based PFO closure was associated with a DCS occurrence similar to the controls; the conservative strategy had a similar effect in the low-grade group, but in the high-grade group the DCS incidence remained higher than in all other groups. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Different failure modes were considered as competing risks in statistical analyses. • Conventional failure mode non-distinguishing models may underestimate bond strength. • Competing risk models could estimate bond strength more accurately and reliably. • Additional information can be obtained from the competing events' strength estimates. A competing risk (CR) model distinguishing adhesive, cohesive and mixed failures as competing events was used for the analysis of micro-tensile bond strength (μTBS) data and compared with a conventional failure mode non-distinguishing survival model. Fifty human molars were bonded using five universal adhesives (n = 10) and subdivided according to aging conditions (24-h water storage, thermocycling). After μTBS to dentin was tested, a fractographic analysis was performed using scanning electron microscopy. Survival analyses of the μTBS data were performed using both a failure mode distinguishing Weibull CR model, and a conventional failure mode non-distinguishing Weibull model. Weibull shape (m) and scale (σ θ) parameters were calculated for both models using the maximum likelihood estimation method, and strength at 10 % probability of failure, σ 0.10 , was estimated. Groups were compared using 95 % confidence intervals. CR-model estimates of σ θ and σ 0.10 for adhesive failures were higher than those of the conventional model, more markedly in groups with lower percentages of adhesive failures. CR-model strength estimates for cohesive failures were similar in all groups regardless of their bond strengths and failure mode distributions. Merging all bond-strength data into one dataset irrespective of the failure mode may result in a severe underestimation of bond strength, especially in groups with low incidence of adhesive failures. Bond-strength data analysis using a CR model could provide more accurate estimates of bond strength, and strength estimates for cohesive failures which were apparently independent of bond strength could serve as an internal validity indicator of the CR model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Thermal gradients were evaluated within small forest fragments. • Aspect- and edge-related gradients are the most important. • Edge effect alters microclimate in large areas of forest fragments. • Edge effect probably augments negative consequences of climate change. • Edge influence could be reduced by avoiding clear-cut timber harvesting. A long-distance edge effect influences structure of species-rich plant communities in temperate forest fragments surrounded by an agricultural landscape in Central Europe. Though the edge effect may be an aggregate of many environmental conditions, the thermal gradient from the forest edge to the forest interior deserves particular attention due to increasing ambient air temperature over the past decades. With regard to ongoing climate change, any reliable information about magnitude and distance of thermal gradients in these forest fragments has become of great importance. Therefore, we carried out seasonal measurements of forest air and soil temperature at a total 40 sites in 14 forest fragments in central Bohemia with areas ranging between 0.3 and 255 ha. In addition, we assessed spatial and vertical air temperature variability at two sites, on both south and north facing slopes. We found that differences in daily mean air temperature in these forest fragments is significantly modified by slope aspect (and/or slope inclination) and distance to the forest edge. A negative monotonic edge-related thermal gradient was apparent up to 100 m towards the forest interior with differences in daily mean air temperatures of about 0.3 °C. The magnitude of this edge thermal gradient is comparable to the effect of slope aspect. In addition to mean air temperature, maximum and minimum daily temperatures as well as mean soil temperature inside forest fragments also showed impacts caused by the edge effect and other environmental conditions (e.g. forest structure, elevation). The edge-related area closer than 100 m from the forest edge represents the majority (78%) of forested land in the study area as well as a considerable part of temperate forests in Central Europe (40%), including less fragmented mountain forests. Hence, the edge alteration of forest microclimate should be taken into serious consideration when planning adaptation measures against the consequences of climate change in Central Europe. The edge influence could be partially mitigated by preventing further forest fragmentation and the adoption of timber harvesting methods that avoid creation of clearings, such as single-tree selection. Even if such forest management measures are implemented in the study area, spatial patterns and gradients of environmental heterogeneity may be gradually reduced in the forest fragments as a result of further exposure to the combined effects of climate change and edge influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of precipitation composition is important, among other things, to reveal changes in atmospheric chemistry. Here we present the long-term time trends in ratios of major ions in precipitation, namely nitrate to sulphate (NO 3 −/SO 4 2−), ammonium to sulphate (NH 4 +/SO 4 2−) and ammonium to nitrate (NH 4 +/NO 3 −). For this we explore the long-term time series recorded by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute at eight monitoring sites situated in urban, rural and mountain regions of the Czech Republic between 1980 and 2020. To that end, we use innovative Bayesian inference with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) computational method appropriate for investigating complicated large-scale data. Our results indicated: (i) increasing NO 3 −/SO 4 2− ratio in precipitation over time and distinct seasonal behaviour with higher values in winter and lower values in summer, (ii) increasing NH 4 +/SO 4 2− ratio in precipitation and distinct seasonal behaviour with higher values in summer and lower values in winter and (iii) relatively stable NH 4 +/NO 3 − ratio in precipitation with a mild recent increase and distinct seasonal behaviour with higher values in summer and lower values in winter. This behaviour pattern holds true for all the sites analysed, irrespective of their geographical position, altitude or environment. Though explored in detail rarely, the ion ratios are important to study as they reflect changes in atmospheric chemistry, mirroring changes in emissions and meteorology and suggesting changing impacts on ecosystems and the environment. [Display omitted] • Trends in ratios of major ions in precipitation from sites in the Czech Republic. • Unique dataset covering four decades discussed in emission and meteorology context. • Bayesian inference with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation method used. • Increasing NO 3 −/SO 4 2− and NH 4 +/SO 4 2− vs NH 4 +/NO 3 − relatively steady over the years. • Clear seasonal patterns at all sites irrespective of their altitude and environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globin adducts of various chemicals, persisting in organism over the whole lifetime of erythrocytes, have been used as biomarkers of cumulative exposures to parent compounds. After removal of aged erythrocytes from the bloodstream, cleavage products of these adducts are excreted with urine as alternative, non-invasively accessible biomarkers. In our biomonitoring studies on workers exposed to ethylene oxide, its adduct with globin, N -(2-hydroxyethyl)valine, and the related urinary cleavage product N -(2-hydroxyethyl)-L-valyl-L-leucine have been determined. To describe a toxicokinetic relationship between the above types of biomarkers, a general compartmental model for simulation of formation and removal of globin adducts has been constructed in the form of code in R statistical computing environment. The essential input variables include lifetime of erythrocytes, extent of adduct formation following a single defined exposure, and parameters of exposure scenario, while other possible variables are optional. It was shown that both biomarkers reflect the past exposures differently as the adduct level in globin is a mean value of adduct levels across all compartments (subpopulations of erythrocytes of the same age) while excretion of cleavage products reflects the adduct level in the oldest compartment. Application of the model to various scenarios of continuous exposure demonstrated its usefulness for human biomonitoring data interpretation. • Compartmental model to simulate formation and elimination of adducts with globin. • Toxicokinetics of the adducts in globin and their cleavage products in the urine. • Non-invasive biomonitoring to assess long-term exposures to electrophilic chemicals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Basal area (BA) was correlated with macroclimatic gradients along the Carpathians. • Fine-scale variation of BA is linked to local disturbances. • Recent stationarity in stand BA implied despite disturbance related variability. • Instances of high recent mortality may indicate a departure from stationarity. Abstract Disentangling the importance of developmental vs. environmental drivers of variation in forest biomass is key to predicting the future of forest carbon sequestration. At coarse scales, forest biomass is likely to vary along major climatic and physiographic gradients. Natural disturbance occurs along these broad biophysical gradients, and depending on their extent, severity and frequency, could either amplify or dampen spatial heterogeneity in forest biomass. Here we evaluate spatial variation in the basal area of late-successional Picea abies (L./Karst.) forests across the Carpathian Mountain Range of central Europe and compare the roles of coarse-scale biophysical gradients and natural disturbances in driving that variation across a hierarchy of scales (landscapes, stands, and plots). We inventoried forest composition and structure, and reconstructed disturbance histories using tree cores collected from 472 plots nested within 30 late-successional stands, spanning the Carpathian Mountains (approximately 4.5 degrees of latitude). We used linear mixed-effects models to compare the effect of disturbance regimes and site conditions on stand basal area at three hierarchical scales. We found that the basal area of late-successional Picea abies forests varied across a range of spatial scales, with climatic drivers being most important at coarse scales and natural disturbances acting as the primary driver of forest heterogeneity at fine scales. For instance, the stand-level basal area varied among landscapes, with the highest values (48–68 m2 ha−1) in the warmer southern Carpathian Mountains, and lower values (37–52 m2 ha−1 on average) in cooler areas of the eastern and western Carpathians. Finer-scale variation was driven by local disturbances (mainly bark beetle and windstorms) and the legacies of disturbances that occurred more than a century ago. Our findings suggest that warming could increase the basal area of northern sites, but potential increasing disturbances could disrupt these environmental responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Large-scale data on oak-hornbeam woodlands distribution were analyzed. • Oak-hornbeam woodlands are naturally distributed in elevations between 250 and 450 m a. s. l. in Czechia. • Oak-hornbeam forests are more common close to the historical human settlements in higher elevations. • Oak-hornbeam forests are less common close to the historical human settlements in lower elevations. • Historical woodland management practices probably modified the distribution of oak-hornbeam woodlands. Historical woodland management practices like coppicing and grazing have formed the diversity and structure of oak-hornbeam woodlands. We analysed large-scale, high-resolution spatial data on the distribution of woodland communities in Czechia to find out whether past human impacts influenced the distribution of oak-hornbeam woodlands in present-day landscapes. We tested the relation of oak-hornbeam woodlands to the past and current settlement distribution pattern, woodland continuity since about 1840 and distance to the woodland edge, on top of natural environmental predictors, using generalized additive mixed-effects models (GAMM). The results show a positive association between oak-hornbeam woodlands and current towns and villages, but only at higher elevations at the edge of the supposed natural distribution of oak-hornbeam woodlands. This effect was enhanced in the vicinity of old (pre-1450) settlements. By contrast, we found no effect of distance to current settlements in the elevational optimum of oak-hornbeam woodlands and even a decreasing trend of oak-hornbeam at the lowest elevations. In addition, oak-hornbeam stands often occur on former agricultural land and close to the woodland edges. Our results do not contradict the traditional view of oak-hornbeam woodlands as natural vegetation in the lowlands and at middle elevations. However, they clearly show that this natural range was extended to higher elevations by past human influence, probably at the expense of beech woodlands. Additionally, historical woodland management probably supported thermophilous oak woodlands at the lowest elevations. These past human activities are still detectable in the current distribution pattern of woodland communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species-rich communities of forest birds generally occupy larger rather than smaller forest fragments. However, the role of distance to the forest edge on the spatial distribution of bird communities within forest fragments remains largely unknown. In this study, we attempted to determine whether and how forest bird species distribution was related to distance from the forest edge or clearing (whichever was closer) taking into consideration effects of fragment size and vegetation. Based on data from a four year bird survey, we explored the spatial distribution of 29 common forest bird species within 24 forest fragments (0.1–255 ha) in relation to distance to the forest edge, fragment size and forest vegetation. For this purpose we used generalized additive models (GAMs) with spline components and demonstrated the distance – frequency relationship for each bird species for whom it was relevant. Spatial distribution of the majority of common forest bird species was significantly affected by distance to the forest edge and/or fragment size and vegetation. The maximum frequency of species dependent on distance to the forest edge differed considerably along the line connecting forest edge to the centre of forest fragments. While frequency of the generalist species generally peaked somewhere close to the forest edge, frequency of sensitive forest resident species increased up to a distance of 150 m or more from the forest edge. The effect of forest fragment size was consistently accompanied with the effect of distance to the forest edge with the exception of only two generalist species. It appears that a substantial part of the effect traditionally attributed to forest fragment size may be related to distance to the forest edge. Spatial distribution of almost all of the common bird species were further modified by forest vegetation at the local scale, but only rarely by prevalent forest vegetation of the respective forest fragment. Populations of forest resident species, such as Dryocopus martius , may be threatened by management intervention in the forest interior that leads to the forming of “internal” forest edges (e.g. clearcutting). The results documented that forest management based on clear-cut timber harvesting may increase the negative effects of forest fragmentation on distribution of the sensitive forest bird species within forest fragments. This negative effect could be reduced by adoption of timber harvesting methods that avoid the creation of clearings (e.g. single-tree selection), preferably accompanied by exemptions of individuals or patches of old trees from logging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The focus of this study is on the properties of consecutive intervals consisting of pairs of clear periods (the Sun is shining) and dark periods (the Sun is obscured by clouds). Namely, the distribution of the duration length of clear and dark periods is studied and illustrated with results obtained for the climatic regime of Timisoara (Romania, Eastern Europe). Usual simple moment-based characteristics such as means and variances cannot be unambiguously estimated due to censoring. Seasonal changes in the length distributions have been studied through the (nonparametric) Kaplan-Meier estimates. Both dark and clear duration distributions are different among months. The correlation between clear and dark periods within one dark-clear pair is of substantial interest. Therefore, a rigorous approach based on Spearman's rank correlation coefficient is used instead. The dependence of duration distribution upon covariates is studied using the Cox regression model, which fits the hazard ratio incurred by a unit change in the explanatory variables. It is shown that increasing the extraterrestrial irradiance on horizontal surface and the clearness index during dark/clear periods increases significantly the dark/clear period end risk. The Cox regression model enables more complicated analyses, such as the non-additive effects (i.e. interactions) of several covariates. The clearness index of a dark period (CID) has a much stronger effect than the extraterrestrial irradiance on horizontal surface of a dark period (EID) and the CID-EID interaction is still significant after the interactions when the months are included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two advanced models for forecasting the output power of photovoltaic plants are discussed in details: a black-box Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model and a physically inspired, semiparametric statistical model (Generalized Additive Model, GAM) based on smoothing splines. The structure of the two models, their strengths and weaknesses, are presented. The models performance is thoroughly compared with the performance of a simple linear model tested under the frame of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action “Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies”, as a benchmark used also in the forecasting exercise reported in Sperati et al. Energies 8 (2015) 9594. The models are used to forecasting the output power at time horizons of 1–72 h ahead. The data used during the COST competition are used here as input. The present study extends beyond the traditional evaluation of overall model accuracy. Detailed influences of seasonal effects, sun elevation angle and solar irradiance level upon the models performance are assessed. While the accuracy of the simple linear model is not entirely bad, it differs in important details from the two advanced forecasting models. The results show that a moderate, carefully chosen increase in model structure complexity can improve the predictive performance. Suitable penalty on model complexity can help both to enforce parsimony and improve practical forecasting abilities, to a certain extent. The physically inspired GAM comes out as the best performing model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Specialized predators should be adapted spatially and temporally to the occurrence and abundance of their exclusive prey. Several spider species have specialized to feed on prey that is highly aggregated, including ants and termites. Ammoxenus (Araneae: Ammoxenidae) are spiders that are specialist predators of harvester termites in southern Africa. Epigeal spiders and termites were sampled by pitfall trapping from six sites in the Erfenis Dam Nature Reserve, South Africa, over a period of one year. We found Ammoxenus amphalodes Dippenaar & Meyer, and two termite species, Hodotermes mossambicus (Hagen) (Isoptera: Hodotermitidae) and Trinervitermes trinervoides (Sjöstedt) (Isoptera: Termitidae) to be abundant there. Our data show that A. amphalodes is a univoltine species with a wide reproductive period corresponding to the seasonal occurrence of termites. The activity density of A. amphalodes was tightly coupled to the activity density of H. mossambicus , but not to that of T. trinervoides . These data provide further evidence that A. amphalodes is a monophagous true predator. However, its role as a biocontrol agent against termites is limited due to an insufficient numerical response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the clearness index and the time averaged sunshine number is studied over short time intervals such as one hour. Several non-linear statistical models have been used. Meteorological and radiometric data from various weather stations of Romania (South-Eastern Europe) are analyzed. Nonlinearity of the relationship is only apparent near the boundary for relative sunshine σ of 0 or 1 and manifests itself in clearness index jumps mainly at σ = 0 rather than σ = 1. The negative clearness index jump at σ = 0 decreases while the slope of the relationship increases when the sunshine number is averaged over longer time periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of solar radiation is of high importance for proper operation of the electrical grid. Over short horizons, forecasting solar irradiance is often performed by extrapolation of field measurements. Four tailored statistical models for forecasting hourly average solar irradiance are proposed and assessed in this paper. These follow from the well-known regression and ARIMA class of models, but bring into the model formulation various physically motivated additional features. These capture the distribution of solar radiation more effectively. Their performance is compared with the performance of a standard model used in the strictly black-box style often encountered in practice. Overall results demonstrate that the proposed models are significantly more accurate than the standard model, under conditions of mostly cloudy skies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Factors affecting the seasonal succession of plankton communities in freshwater temperate lakes have been thoroughly studied for decades. However, there are still relatively few data describing the winter season patterns in detail, as the focus has been mostly on spring to autumn conditions. Ice cover is often the crucial factor limiting light availability for winter phytoplankton, but in warm monomictic lakes is usually lacking and the gradually increasing solar radiation should, theoretically, drive phytoplankton growth. In this study conducted in 2002–2010, we documented regular sharp increases in phytoplankton chlorophyll a , starting just after the winter solstice and lasting throughout the total circulation and/or unstable inverse stratification period in the monomictic Slapy reservoir (Czechia). Chlorophyll a concentrations analysed in one-week intervals reached their yearly minimum of 0.2–0.8 µg L−1 in the solstice period, and the spring peak occurred before the onset of stable thermal stratification. The regular pattern was slightly disrupted in some years, associated with short periods of ice cover. Winter phytoplankton were species poor and dominated by diatoms, cryptophytes, green algae, and cyanobacteria. Using semiparametric regression approach, we aimed to test if selected environmental parameters had a significant effect on the observed winter trend. The resulting model revealed that solar radiation and water temperature positively influenced log chlorophyll a concentrations, whereas water age had a significant negative effect. On the other hand, zooplankton density and ice cover effects were not significant. The shapes of the marginal effects of water temperature and solar radiation were nonlinear, and the interaction of these two major factors was significant. The model-based estimated chlorophyll a concentrations showed a shift from radiation dominance to temperature-positive effects along the temperature gradient. This might represent as yet neglected pattern of phytoplankton seasonal development in warm monomictic lakes worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Sunshine number (SSN), a binary variable, quantifies the presence of shadow. [•] Logistic Markovian models of SSN dynamics are evaluated. [•] The model including sun elevation captures a large amount of the SSN variability. [•] Overall models are useful in nowcasting events like solar ramp. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• First Czech study showing inequalities by municipalities of smoking-related deaths. • Advanced geostatistical modeling used on data from the Czech Mortality Register. • Relationship between mortality and local socioeconomic structure examined. • Despite ecological design, the small-area level reduces chance of a possible fallacy. Smoking-related mortality varies over different social, environmental, and policy contexts. However, spatial patterns, examined at a small area level, have been seldom considered. Therefore, the study provides a detailed analysis of socio-spatial inequalities in premature mortality related to smoking in the contemporary Czech adult population. We conducted a population-based, cross-sectional study to investigate the spatial pattern of the age-adjusted smoking-related mortality across Czechia. The spatial inequalities, as measured at the municipality level, were investigated using geostatistical modeling techniques. The ecological regression of the local mortality risk on socioeconomic composition of municipalities was also conducted. The target population was defined as permanent adult residents of Czechia aged 25–64 years in the period of 2011–2015. Among both sexes, a significant spatial gradient in the South-East (lower relative risk) – North-West (higher relative risk) axis was detected. The local mortality risk was significantly related to the level of relative deprivation of the municipalities (a composite index comprised from unemployment rate and level of education): adjusted RR among males (for an increase by 1 SD): 1.21 [95% CI: 1.158–1.256], p < 0.001; adjusted RR among females (for an increase by 1 SD): 1.14 [95% CI: 1.090–1.186], p < 0.001. Mortality among males was approximately twice as high as opposed to females. Regarding the spatial inequalities of the phenomena, however, only rather minor sex-specific patterns were identified. Contrasted to males, mortality among females was unrelated to unemployment rates. Consistent spatial patterns of the premature mortality were identified. The mortality risk was significantly related to socioeconomic composition of the Czech municipalities. The higher the level of local deprivation, the higher the local mortality risk. The results of the study can be found beneficial for planning of both socially and spatially integrated public health policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Exhaled breath condensate (EBC) contains many substances, which could help in diagnosis of occupational asthma. The aim of the study is to monitor leukotrienes (LT) and 8-isoprostane from EBC in bronchoprovocation tests with allergens in 47 patients with suspected occupational asthma. Forty-one patients were tested negative. In negative bronchoprovocation tests, no significant differences (P<0.05) were seen between the five measurements during and after the test. In control measurements (without provocation), significant differences were found among four measurements done within 24h for 8-isoprostane (P=0.0138). The relationship between the log transformed ratios of the EBC parameters and FEV1 was never significant at the 5% level in control measurements, while in negative tests, statistical significance was recorded for LTB4 (P=0.0299) before and 5h after the test. Six of 47 patients were tested positive. Such a small number of patients did not allow proper statistical analysis and therefore, the results are described separately for each patient. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

To predict the radon concentration in a house environment and to understand the role of all factors affecting its behavior, it is necessary to recognize time variation in both air exchange rate and radon entry rate into a house. This paper describes a new approach to the separation of their effects, which effectively allows continuous estimation of both radon entry rate and air exchange rate from simultaneous tracer gas (carbon monoxide) and radon gas measurement data. It is based on a state-space statistical model which permits quick and efficient calculations. Underlying computations are based on (extended) Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is easy. Key property is the model''s flexibility, so that it can be easily adjusted to handle various artificial regimens of both radon gas and CO gas level manipulation. After introducing the statistical model formally, its performance will be demonstrated on real data from measurements conducted in our experimental, naturally ventilated and unoccupied room. To verify our method, radon entry rate calculated via proposed statistical model was compared with its known reference value. The results from several days of measurement indicated fairly good agreement (up to 5% between reference value radon entry rate and its value calculated continuously via proposed method, in average). Measured radon concentration moved around the level approximately 600Bqm−3, whereas the range of air exchange rate was 0.3–0.8 (h−1). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Most studies addressing heat in urban environments focus on thermal conditions and neglect the mental component of thermal comfort. This study employs mental maps to analyse thermal (dis)comfort in the medium-sized Czech cities of Olomouc and Plzeň in summer. Locations of "mental hotspots" are identified particularly on busy streets, at transport hubs, and in the city centres. The results reveal mental hotspots as highly-frequented locations in which people experience inferior thermal and environmental conditions. Slight variations in the spatial patterns of thermal discomfort for particular groups of persons are described. Mental hotspots overlap with surface temperature hotspots by less than half of their area; differences are statistically significant and spatially modulated. Overlap areas of "mental" and "real" hotspots show a promising approach towards indication of locations prone to development of heat stress in urban areas. These findings may contribute to adaptation to climate change and to urban planning, which should address not only the physical but also the subjectively-perceived issues of thermal comfort. • Mental hotspot areas overlap with surface temperature hotspots by less than half. • Mental hotspots occur in central squares, transport hubs and on busy streets. • Green and blue infrastructure prevents mental thermal discomfort. • Mental and LST hotspot overlaps indicate areas suitable for heat reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind speed is involved in multiple scales physical phenomena and depends on specific features, that are not always easy to simulate numerically. Alternative solution that combines the physical advantages provided by numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations and statistical models is investigated for wind speed forecast. Several aspects that influence the wind speed forecast error at synoptic stations in Romania were identified, such as discrepancy between model and true topography, urbanicity or distance to the Black Sea. Calibration models in the framework of Generalized Additive Models (GAM) are developed for the proposed endeavour. A set of models applied to limited area model ALARO were introduced and evaluated. Results showed improved statistical scores compared to raw ALARO output and simple regression model: a decrease of up to 23% for the RMSE score, or 94% for the bias was observed for the model which performed best in terms of annual bias and RMSE. Different impact of terms involved in the calibration model is found. Most important effects in the model are associated with wind speed observations from the 24 past hours and simulated wind speed effect in relation to altitude. • Numeric wind speed prediction can be improved through statistical calibration models. • Complex semi-parametric regression models can account for local topographic features influencing the wind speed forecast. • Generalized Additive Models provide an effective tool for gaining insight into the sources of wind speed forecast error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bonding performance of dental adhesives is most frequently evaluated using the micro-tensile bond strength (μTBS) test. Despite lacking evidence, peripheral specimens are often discarded to avoid regional variability. This study, therefore, examined whether μTBS to central and peripheral dentin differed. Dentin surfaces of extracted human molars were bonded with various self-etch adhesives, built up with a resin composite, cut into beams, and stressed in tension. Failure mode was classified as adhesive, cohesive in dentin, or other using scanning electron microscopy. Since cohesive failures in dentin were frequent and could confound μTBS results, the data from central/peripheral dentin were analyzed using a Weibull competing risk (CR) model distinguishing failure modes, and its outcomes were compared to a conventional failure mode non-distinguishing Weibull model. Based on the strength data of cohesively failed specimens, the CR model also estimated the strength of dentin. For comparison, the ultimate tensile strength (UTS) of dentin was measured in both regions. The conventional model suggested that peripheral μTBS was higher than central μTBS. Conversely, the CR model disclosed no significant difference in μTBS between the regions but indicated a higher strength of peripheral dentin. This finding was confirmed by UTS measurements, and further supported by the significantly higher incidence of cohesive failures in central dentin. Therefore, peripheral specimens can be used in the μTBS test as well as central ones, but a CR model should be used for statistical analysis if cohesive failures in dentin are frequent, as the strength of peripheral dentin is higher. Image 1 • Strength data were analyzed using a failure mode distinguishing competing risk model. • Micro-tensile bond strength to central and peripheral dentin was similar. • Fewer adhesive failures and more cohesive failures occurred in central dentin. • Central dentin exhibited significantly lower strength than peripheral dentin. • The use of a competing risk model permits the testing of specimens from both regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Blue and green features in cities influence thermal sensation to a varying degree. • Biometeorological indices and TSV show a complex relationship in urban environments. • Location-specific approach to the measures for mitigation of heat stress required. • Sensitive planning of the should reflect the behavioural patterns of citizens. Thermal comfort in public spaces, as an important factor in the quality of life, has been strongly affected by manifestations of climate change. City authorities are under pressure to adapt their approaches to the urban environment. This study investigates thermal sensation in public spaces in four Czech cities. Biometeorological measurements were taken and biometeorological indices (UTCI, PET, HUMIDEX) established, then contrasted with questionnaire surveys (thermal sensation vote – TSV). Regression models were subsequently constructed to explore the influences of elements of blue and green infrastructure beyond their microclimatic functions. The results suggest a highly complex relationship between biometeorological indices and TSV in urban environments, significantly influenced by specificity of place and time. Open grassy areas exhibit a lower probability of higher TSV related to heat stress. Despite measured microclimatic effects that might indicate the opposite, the probability of TSV-related heat stress is higher under trees and near sprayed water-mist. The findings herein thus indicate that simple predicted mean vote models are of little or no use in urban planning, and that sensitive and sustainable planning of heat mitigation measures should reflect the behavioural patterns of citizens alongside the microclimatic effects in actual place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We created a simple tool for evaluation of forest α-diversity at the local scale. • Richness of ancient forest plant species indicates diversity of forest dwelling taxa. • Many ancient forest plant species indicate refuges of threatened species. • This relationship is relevant also for epiphytic and wood-living species. Abstract Effective indicators for biodiversity hotspots and refuges of threatened forest species could help with efforts to mitigate the decline of European forest's biodiversity. ʻAncient forest species' (AFS, i.e. a group of forest vascular plant species that rely on forest continuity) were previously noted as possible indicators of biodiversity hotspots. However, different aspects of the forest continuity may be important for different taxa. Using data from two multi-taxa surveys of central European forests, we examined spatial congruence between the richness of AFS and other forest-dwelling groups in stands that differed in various aspects of forest continuity. We provide evidence for a general positive relationship between the richness of AFS and other forest-dwelling taxa (bryophytes, macrofungi, lichens, beetles, moths and some groups of edaphic organisms) in temperate European forests. The ability of AFS to indicate hotspots of forest biodiversity is not seriously affected by forest management even in the case of long-term intensive and specific management practices such as coppicing. Any easily observable characteristics of the forest environment, excepting the richness of AFS, are unlikely to track exactly the complex effects of forest continuity, habitat quality and the delay in the rise and fall of species diversity of forest communities. Some other perennial plant species associated with beech forests are similar to AFS and regularly occupied the refuges of threatened species. The stands with outstanding biodiversity within the area of deciduous temperate forests can be easily revealed via AFS richness and eventually other similar beech-associated species in the case of beech forests. The retention of all small, mutually isolated refuges of endangered species interspersed within large areas of managed forests may be crucial for the mitigation of biodiversity decline in temperate European forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon isotope measurements of individual fatty acids (C 16:0 and C 18:0 ) recovered from archaeological pottery vessels are widely used in archaeology to investigate past culinary and economic practices. Typically, such isotope measurements are matched with reference to food sources for straightforward source identification, or simple linear models are used to investigate mixing of contents. However, in cases where multiple food sources were processed in the same vessel, these approaches result in equivocal solutions. To address this issue, we tested the use of a Bayesian mixing model to determine the proportional contribution of different food sources to a series of different mixed food compositions, using data generated both by simulation and by experiment. The model was then applied to previously published fatty acid isotope datasets from pottery from two prehistoric sites: Durrington Walls, near Stonehenge in southern Britain and Neustadt in northern Germany. We show that the Bayesian approach to the reconstruction of pottery use offers a reliable probabilistic interpretation of source contributions although the analysis also highlights the relatively low precision achievable in quantifying pottery contents from datasets of this nature. We suggest that, with some refinement, the approach outlined should become standard practice in organic residue analysis, and also has potential application to a wide range of geological and geochemical investigations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The aim of this study was to calibrate gillnet catches using Fish Biomass per Area obtained by active methods. • We found a strong positive linear relationship between fish biomasses sampled with gillnets and with active methods. • The effective sampling area of 1 m2 of gillnet was determined to be 8 m2 of surface area for European standard gillnets. Fish are an important component of aquatic ecosystems, thus representative and reliable assessments of their population variables are essential for a variety of ecological applications, management and conservation. Determining Fish Density per actual Spatial Unit (volume or area, FDSU) as a measure of absolute fish quantity is of particular interest. Gillnets are undoubtedly one of the most common and important methods for assessing fish populations in large lentic waters. However, direct calculating of FDSU from gillnet catches is impossible because of the passive nature of this method, and to date there is no reliable model for calculating FDSU from gillnet catches. This weakness largely limits the use of gillnet data for applications requiring FDSU estimates. The aim of this study was to calibrate gillnet catches using FDSU obtained by active methods (beach seine nets and hydroacoustics) to develop a tool for assessing FDSU from gillnet catches. To achieve this goal, we compared gillnet biomass to fish biomass estimated from the active methods, both of which cover similar spatiotemporal niches. This comparison was performed using a statistical approach based on the recognition of non-negligible random measurement error in both the explanatory (active methods) and response (gillnets) variables. We found a strong positive linear relationship between fish biomasses sampled with gillnets and with active methods. The slope of the fitted linear model was similar when comparing gillnets with the two active methods. The statistical method used allowed for the inclusion of error in the biomass estimates with gillnets and active methods, refining the credible intervals of the estimated relationship. The effect of gillnet effort on model accuracy was simulated to show how increased effort narrows the credible interval. Finally, comparison with previously published relationships revealed a large but explainable discrepancy between our model and previous models. Our study showed that conversion of gillnet biomass to biomass per actual spatial unit is possible. The effective sampling area of one square meter of gillnet was determined to be 8 m2 of waterbody surface area when European standard 12 mesh-sizes gillnets are used, and 5 m2 when four larger meshes are added to the European standard gillnets. Our model further stressed the impact of increased sampling effort on reducing estimation variability and shows that the model may be dependent on the fish community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in temperate forest ecosystems resulting from a long history of forest exploitation may severely impact current cryptogam diversity. We documented the distribution of cryptogams in representative forest types between 200 and 1000 m a.s.l. in central Europe, in managed and unmanaged stands. This survey included one-time inventories of lichens and bryophytes, 2 years of regular monitoring of macrofungi, and a detailed description of forest structure (live trees and dead woody debris) in 96 sampling plots (2500 m 2 each) in six study areas in the Czech Republic. On this basis, we attempted to identify the quantitative limits of forest structural attributes that affect cryptogam diversity along a gradient of forest management practices in central Europe. In total, we recorded 1387, 173 and 103 species of macrofungi, lichens and bryophytes, respectively, of which 149, 99 and 4 were red-listed species. Species richness was correlated among observed taxa at the plot scale, and rare and red-listed species made higher contributions in species-rich communities. Cryptogam species richness showed both common and taxa-specific patterns in relation to forest structure, tree species composition, age of the oldest tree strata and elevation. We found a positive influence of the largest-diameter tree classes (stem diameter >80 cm) on the species richness of all cryptogam taxa, whereas the contribution of dead wood to the fit of a linear mixed effect model was minimal. Nevertheless, the magnitude of total and red-listed species richness was remarkably high in plots in which at least one large tree or woody object occurred compared to plots lacking these attributes. The effect of large dead wood debris (diameter >80 cm and unit volume >1 m 3 ) was not replaced by total dead wood volume, even though it was relatively high (>40 m 3 ha −1 ). Hence, both large live trees and woody debris compartments are probably important for the species richness of cryptogam communities. However, the spatial pattern of cryptogam communities at a given time point (i.e., the time of our survey) was associated with the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of live tree structures, but less with that of dead wood substrates. Large tree and woody debris characterize forests that have been unmanaged for at least several decades and occasionally occur in the oldest of moderately managed forests. The importance of these cryptogam refuges in managed forests should not be underestimated because their continuing disappearance will probably result in the impoverishment of cryptogam richness at regional scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In agricultural landscapes in central Europe, species richness of the herbaceous plant community may be compromised by processes associated with forest fragmentation, habitat loss, and management practices. We examined variability in species richness and composition of the herbaceous layer in 229 plots located in 23 forest fragments (0.1 to 255ha), in a representative upland agricultural landscape in central Bohemia, in relation to the most important site environmental factors, edge effects, and site history. The influence of environmental factors on the composition of vegetation in the herb layer was evaluated using generalized additive models, which enabled us to analyze highly non-linear and non-monotonic relationships. Total species richness and number of red-listed and ancient forest species were significantly influenced by type of forest vegetation, light quality, soil pH, slope aspect, and distance from the forest edge. Implications of the significant explanatory variables corresponded well to previous findings, with the exception of distance from the forest edge, for which we found a positive relationship with species richness for distances up to 200m toward the forest interior. Plant species with low colonization ability occupied plots with increasing frequency from edge to forest interior, while fast-colonizing species showed the opposite trend. Apart from the edge effect, forest continuity should be considered for its important contribution to the richness of ancient forest and red-listed species, whereas the effect of forest fragment size appeared to be generally weak. These results do not negate the importance of large forest fragments for the maintenance of herb layer species richness, but specifically emphasize the essential contribution of the core habitats of these forests. In summary, we showed that the negative effects of habitat fragmentation on the richness of ancient forest and red-listed species and on herb layer species in total can be largely attributed to either the edge effect itself or to aggregate effects of forest edge and forest continuity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The response time of a PV (photovoltaic) plant is very short and its output power follows the abrupt change in solar irradiance level due to alternate shadow by clouds. The sunshine number (SSN) is a Boolean quantity stating whether the sun is covered by clouds or not, thus being an appropriate parameter to predict the occurrence of direct solar radiation at ground level. Various ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models for SSN nowcasting are inferred and discussed in this paper. Actinometric and meteorological data measured at 15 s lag during June 2010 in Timisoara (Romania) are used. The forecasting accuracy is studied as a function of season, of the procedure used to obtain a binary time series and of the type of white noise distribution, respectively. It is demonstrated that the ARIMA(0,1,0) model forecasts SSN with the same accuracy as higher order ARIMA models. The forecasting accuracy decreases when the instability of the radiative regime increases. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]