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Urban green space is important for alleviating high temperatures, pollution, and flooding in cities. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly clear that urban green space is important for the mental and physical health of humans residing in cities and that urban green space may harbor unique biodiversity. Understanding the extent and drivers of urban green space is thus important. While urban green space has been mapped and studied at local to national scales, the global patterns and drivers of urban green space remain unknown, potentially hampering effective planning and allocation of resources toward reaching sustainable development goals. Here, we quantified the effect of environmental and socio-economic drivers (temperature, precipitation, human development, and population density) on urban green space globally by focusing on national capital cities. We used satellite imagery to map urban green space using two measures: the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the fractional cover of "green" land cover classes. NDVI is useful as it includes all vegetated surfaces, also small ones like gardens. However, land cover classes allow the exclusion of certain classes such as sports fields or cropland. We used boosted regression trees to show that climatic variables accounted for 75 % of the relative influence in urban green space, with a positive effect of precipitation and a negative effect of temperature. Importantly, socioeconomic variables accounted for 25 % of the influence on global urban green space, with a positive effect of human development index (HDI) and a negative effect of population density. HDI in relation to urban green space has not previously been tested globally, and our study shows that significantly affects urban greenspace. The results demonstrate that cities where development status is low and population densities are high, typically in the Global South, have less urban green space than the climate would predict. The results therefore suggest that human wellbeing does not only benefit directly from increasing human development and decreasing population densities in urban areas, but that these effects may be compounded by also improving nature's contribution to people. • Global North cities are greener than global South cities. • Anthropogenic variables influence urban green space, but less than climate. • Less densely populated and more developed cities are greener. • Green space based on NDVI had better model fit than land cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greater Maasai Mara Ecosystem (GMME) in Kenya is an iconic savanna ecosystem of high importance as natural and cultural heritage, notably by including the largest remaining seasonal migration of African ungulates and the semi-nomadic pastoralist Maasai culture. Comprehensive mapping of vegetation distribution and dynamics in GMME is important for understanding ecosystem changes across time and space since recent reports suggest dramatic declines in wildlife populations alongside troubling reports of grassland conversion to cropland and habitat fragmentation due to increasing small-holder fencing. Here, we present the first comprehensive vegetation map of GMME at high (10-m) spatial resolution. The map consists of nine key vegetation cover types (VCTs), which were derived in a two-step process integrating data from high-resolution WorldView-3 images (1.2-m) and Sentinel-2 images using a deep-learning workflow. We evaluate the role of anthropogenic, topographic, and climatic factors in affecting the fractional cover of the identified VCTs in 2017 and their MODIS-derived browning/greening rates in the preceding 17 years at 250-m resolution. Results show that most VCTs showed a preceding greening trend in the protected land. In contrast, the semi- and unprotected land showed a general preceding greening trend in the woody-dominated cover types, while they exhibited browning trends in grass-dominated cover types. These results suggest that woody vegetation densification may be happening across much of the GMME, alongside vegetation declines within the non-woody covers in the semi- and unprotected lands. Greening and potential woody densification in GMME is positively correlated with mean annual precipitation and negatively correlated with anthropogenic pressure. Increasing woody densification across the entire GMME in the future would replace high-quality grass cover and pose a risk to the maintenance of the region's rich savanna megafauna, thus pointing to a need for further investigation using alternative data sources. The increasing availability of high-resolution remote sensing and efficient approaches for vegetation mapping will play a crucial role in monitoring conservation effectiveness as well as ecosystem dynamics due to pressures such as climate change. • A deep-learning based high-resolution mapping workflow was proposed. • Vegetation cover types were mapped in 10-m in Greater Maasai Mara Ecosystem (GMME). • Woody vegetation densification is happening across much of the GMME. • A density decline in grass cover was observed in semi- and unprotected lands in GMME. • The woody vegetation densification is correlated with rainfall and human pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Massive and accelerating degradation and fragmentation of natural vegetation with the expansion of bare ground was observed in the unprotected land in Mara ecosystem. • Directional change was minimal in the fully protected national reserve. • Vegetation resistance to drought was lowest on unprotected land, intermediate under community-based conservation and highest under full protection. • The Mara ecosystem is heavily threatened, but conservation management can counteract negative trends. • Semi-protected community-based land-sharing conservation offers clear, partial buffering against degradation. Savanna megafauna have become scarce outside of protected areas in Africa, largely because of land conversion for farming (smallholders and agribusiness) and expansion of settlements and other infrastructure. Intensification also isolates protected areas, even affecting natural processes within reserve boundaries. Here, we used satellite imagery from the past 32 years in the iconic Maasai Mara ecosystem to assess the capacity of different land tenures to prevent degradation. We compare unprotected land with two types of conservation management: fully protected land without livestock (land sparing) and semi-protected community-based conservation – protected land with regulated livestock densities (land sharing). On unprotected land (61% of the area), we detected massive and accelerating degradation and fragmentation of natural vegetation, with large losses of woodland (62%) and grassland (56%), resulting in the expansion of bare ground. In contrast, directional change was minimal in both types of protected areas. Vegetation resistance to drought was lowest on unprotected land, intermediate under community-based conservation and highest under full protection. Our results show that the Mara ecosystem is under heavy pressure, but that conservation management counteracts negative trends. Importantly, semi-protected community-based land-sharing conservation offers clear, partial buffering against degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persistence of species in the Anthropocene depends on human willingness-to-coexist with them, but this is rarely incorporated into habitat suitability or conservation priority assessments. We propose a framework of sustainable coexistence potential that integrates human willingness-to-coexist with habitat suitability assessments. We demonstrate its applicability for elephants and rhinos in the socio-ecological system of Maasai Mara, Kenya, by integrating spatial distributions of peoples' willingness-to-coexist based on Bayesian hierarchical models using 556 household interviews, with socio-ecological habitat suitability mapping validated with long-term elephant observations from aerial surveys. Willingness-to-coexist was higher if people had little personal experience with a species, and strongly reduced by experiencing a species as a threat to humans. The sustainable coexistence potential framework highlights areas of low socio-ecological suitability, and areas that require more effort to increase positive stakeholder engagement to achieve long-term persistence of large herbivores in human-dominated landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]