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Highlights • Oak resprouts compete with Pinus nigra saplings regenerated after fire. • The sensitivity of P. nigra to neighbors varied with pine size and water availability. • Competitive effects depend on the relative size of pines to oak resprouts. • Early-dispersed seedlings in open sites can grow faster and mitigate late competition. Abstract The persistence of non-serotinous pines in Mediterranean forests can be threatened by climate-mediated changes in fire regimes that may favor the dominance of resprouters or other fire-adapted species. Recovery of non-serotinous pines after large wildfires is often determined by their ability to grow under the canopy of promptly established resprouters. Mechanisms of facilitation or competition between resprouters and pines will thus have a profound effect on forest dynamics. We examined here the effect of neighboring oak resprouts on Pinus nigra Arn. ssp. salzmannii saplings 18 years after a wildfire. We determined the net outcome of interactions between oaks and pines and how they vary with the life stage and size of the interacting plants or the environmental conditions. We did not find any net facilitative effects of oaks on pine sapling growth. The sensitivity of pines to neighbors varied markedly with pine size, and to a lesser extent, with water availability during the growing season. Our findings suggest a self-reinforcing hierarchical process by which early-dispersed seedlings growing in low-competitive microsites can grow faster, mitigating neighboring competition in the later stage of canopy closure. These results entail a potentially critical role of management practices to promote post-fire recovery of non-serotinous pines under expected changing conditions of disturbance regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The maximum size-density relationship (MSDR) reflects the boundary site occupancy and the self-thinning line for a given species, being a useful tool in forestry. Studies focusing on the MSDR often do not cover the whole distribution of the studied species, which results in different boundaries for a given species in different regions. A common MSDR is lacking for the increasingly demanded large-scale studies. However, this information is important where silvicultural responses must be prioritized among monospecific stands or where comparisons among maximum and relative stand densities between and within species are required. For the purposes of this study, we used data from 9911 sample plots located in Scots pine and European beech monospecific stands. Both of these species are of considerable importance and widely distributed throughout Europe. The data came from National or Regional Forest Inventories of five European countries (Austria, Germany, France, Spain and Poland) and therefore were distributed across a wide range of climatic conditions. The main aim of this study was to determine whether the MSDR of these species depends on environmental variables and to develop a MSDR model for each species that explain this variability along a climate gradient. The resulting models showed that both parameters of species boundary lines were climate-dependent, but that the pattern of variation differed between species. Hence, the higher the humidity, the steeper the MSDR (more negative exponent) and the higher the intercept for beech, while in the case of pine, the higher the humidity, the straighter the MSDR and the lower the intercept. According to these models, the stand density indices, for a reference diameter of 25 cm, varied with the humidity in a different way for each species. Consequently, the ratio between the two species increases with humidity, although it also depends on stand diameter. These results are in accordance with the yield level theory and could contribute to the development of more precise silvicultural guidelines and growth models based on the self-thinning line. Moreover, they are of particular importance in the discussion of growth and the effects of mixing on mixed species stands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A random intercept for each triplet and year for Quercus robur and Quercus petraea (top) and Pinus sylvestris (bottom) showing the inter-annual variation in diameter increment on different sites at the logarithmic scale in mm. [Display omitted] • Tree growth reactions to climate are highly site-specific within a bioclimatic zone. • Local (micro)-site conditions outweigh large-scale climatic patterns. • Tree growth reactions to climate are dependent on relative tree size. • Growth sharply declines with increasing potential evapotranspiration in June. • Species identity and mixture effects clearly differ between years at the same site. Quercus robur / Quercus petraea and Pinus sylvestris are widely distributed and economically important tree species in Europe co-occurring on mesotrophic, xeric and mesic sites. Increasing dry conditions may reduce their growth, but growth reductions may be modified by mixture, competition and site conditions. The annual diameter growth in monospecific and mixed stands along an ecological gradient with mean annual temperatures ranging from 5.5 °C to 11.5 °C was investigated in this study. On 36 triplets (108 plots), trees were cored and the year-ring series were cross-dated, resulting in year-ring series of 785 and 804 trees for Q. spp. and P. sylvestris , respectively. A generalized additive model with a logarithmic link was fit to the data with random effects for the intercept at the triplet, year and tree level and a random slope for the covariate age for each tree; the Tweedie-distribution was used. The final model explained 87 % of the total variation in diameter increment for both tree species. Significant covariates were age, climate variables (long-term mean, monthly), local competition variables, relative dbh, mixture, stand structure and interactions thereof. Tree growth declined with age and local density and increased with social position. It was positively influenced by mixture and structural diversity (Gini coefficient); mixture effects were significant for P. sylvestris only. The influence of potential evapotranspiration (PET) in spring and autumn on tree growth was positive and non-linear, whereas tree growth sharply decreased with increasing PET in June, which proved to be the most influential month on tree growth along the whole ecological gradient. Interactions of PET with tree social position (relative dbh) were significant in July and September for Q. spp. and in April for P. sylvestris. Interactions of climate with density or mixture were not significant. Climatic effects found agree well with previous results from intra-annual growth studies and indicate that the model captures the causal factors for tree growth well. Furthermore, the interaction between climate and relative dbh might indicate a longer growth duration for trees of higher social classes. Analysis of random effects across time and space showed highly dynamic patterns, with competitive advantages changing annually between species and spatial patterns showing no large-scale trends but pointing to the prevalence of local site factors. In mixed-species stands, the tree species have the same competitivity in the long-term, which is modified by climate each year. Climate warming will shift the competitive advantages, but the direction will be highly site-specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adequately assessing the ecosystem resilience and resistance is a challenging and essential question in the current context of widespread environmental change. Here we suggest the use of a quantitative measure we call Persistence Index (PI) to assess the capacity of communities to maintain their functions and services after disturbances. First, we present the formulation of PI that is based on the diversity, abundance, and redundancy of disturbance- and taxon-specific response traits. Then, we use simulated data sets to study the effects of species richness and the number and frequency of traits on PI values. Finally, we illustrate our approach by assessing the persistence capacity of forest communities in Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands in response to fire, drought and windstorm events. The Persistence Index was found to be relatively independent on the number of considered traits, but variable according to the frequency of traits in the community. In the evaluation made with national forest inventory data, PI was found to vary within and among different forest types, being particularly high in stands dominated by non-native species (e.g. Eucalyptus sp.) or in mixed-stands composed by evergreen and deciduous broadleaf species. We also found PI values to increase with the number of species present in the stand, although this relationship saturated due to overlap in species response traits. The presented index is complementary to other approaches developed to study the functional structure of communities through the distribution of species in a functional space. It can be applied to a broad spectrum of communities subjected to different types of stressors, making it a useful tool to guide ecosystem management decisions in a context of changing climate and uncertain disturbance regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Mediterranean, non-serotinous pinewoods are suffering an increasing occurrence of high-severity crown fires that usually drive vegetation shifts to fire-adapted communities and a decrease in pine-dominated area. Here we used a case-study approach on a large area dominated by Pinus nigra Arn. ssp. salzmannii burned in 1998 to gain further understanding of the relative importance of different factors related to local topography (elevation, aspect, slope, curvature), pre-fire vegetation (land-use history, canopy cover) and fire behavior (burn severity, presence of unburned patches) as drivers of post-fire regeneration dynamics. The results find that pine shows locally resilient responses driven mainly by factors related to fire effects (presence of unburned patches) and the characteristics of the pre-fire vegetation (i.e. stable forest areas). When fire-induced changes from pine dominance to other types of vegetation occurred, landscape 15 years post-fire was dominated by woody vegetation, with some rare grassland communities emerging under very specific conditions (mountain ridges, hilltops and rocky sites). Conversion from forest to shrubland occurred mainly in the most xeric sites (south-facing areas, in some cases with steep slopes) and areas dominated by young pine stands prior to the fire. We found manageable factors such as the pre-fire structure and composition of the vegetation strongly determine the occurrence of post-fire regeneration trajectories dominated by tree species regeneration. This knowledge can be used to define preventive management strategies oriented to direct regeneration dynamics in anticipation of fire occurrence. At landscape level, managing forest fuels to favor the occurrence of unburned patches and modify their spatial distribution along the burned landscape will favor a more resilient pine response. At stand level, adjusting silvicultural interventions to favor the natural establishment of late-successional tree species will favor post-fire oak regeneration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence of tree regeneration failure of some species in the Iberian Peninsula forests warns us about the impact that the global change may exert on the preservation of Mediterranean forests, such as we know them. Predictions agree about an exacerbation of the summer drought there, acknowledged as the main limiting factor for the recruits’ survival. On the other hand, many studies have also proved the relevant role that local heterogeneity has over the spatial distribution of forest species recruitment by providing safe sites. Therefore, to unravel how climate interacts with local factors over juveniles’ performance seems crucial for the design of successful management strategies that allow facing the global warming. Here, we surveyed the natural recruitment of four dominant tree species in seven mountainous regions in the Iberian Peninsula, along entire elevational ranges as surrogates of their climatic ranges. Two of them have alpine and temperate distributions with populations at their rear edge in the Spanish mountains: Fagus sylvatica and Pinus uncinata ; and the other two have a genuine Mediterranean distribution: Quercus ilex and Pinus nigra . Our main goal was to analyze for each species the effect of climate, local factors ( i.e. light availability, stand structure and ground cover) and the interactions among them to identify the main drivers leading the regeneration process, assessed in terms of presence, abundance and mean annual growth of juveniles. The results showed different environmental factors determining the recruitment patterns of each species. Nevertheless, they highlighted the pervasive role exerted by both climate and fine scale factors, particularly the co-occurring vegetation on recruits’ abundance, and the light availability on their growth. Moreover, we found some interactions among annual mean temperature and local factors, suggesting that climate and local heterogeneity act hierarchically, i.e. the local conditions may mitigate or exacerbate the impact of climate on juveniles. These results advocate for further research to increase our knowledge on the complex net of interactions among factors involved in recruitment at different scales, which in turn should be taken into account and incorporated in forthcoming management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The study based on 90 mature Scots pine stands along a productivity gradient across Europe. • Growth partitioning became more asymmetric and structuring with increasing site quality. • Mortality eliminated predominantly small trees with increasing site quality. • We found the highest size variation on poor sites and the lowest on rich sites. • As a result stand structure became more homogeneous with increasing site quality. Heterogeneity of structure can increase mechanical stability, stress resistance and resilience, biodiversity and many other functions and services of forest stands. That is why many silvicultural measures aim at enhancing structural diversity. However, the effectiveness and potential of structuring may depend on the site conditions. Here, we revealed how the stand structure is determined by site quality and results from site-dependent partitioning of growth and mortality among the trees. We based our study on 90 mature, even-aged, fully stocked monocultures of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) sampled in 21 countries along a productivity gradient across Europe. A mini-simulation study further analyzed the site-dependency of the interplay between growth and mortality and the resulting stand structure. The overarching hypothesis was that the stand structure changes with site quality and results from the site-dependent asymmetry of competition and mortality. First, we show that Scots pine stands structure across Europe become more homogeneous with increasing site quality. The coefficient of variation and Gini coefficient of stem diameter and tree height continuously decreased, whereas Stand Density Index and stand basal area increased with site index. Second, we reveal a site-dependency of the growth distribution among the trees and the mortality. With increasing site index, the asymmetry of both competition and growth distribution increased and suggested, at first glance, an increase in stand heterogeneity. However, with increasing site index, mortality eliminates mainly small instead of all-sized trees, cancels the size variation and reduces the structural heterogeneity. Third, we modelled the site-dependent interplay between growth partitioning and mortality. By scenario runs for different site conditions, we can show how the site-dependent structure at the stand level emerges from the asymmetric competition and mortality at the tree level and how the interplay changes with increasing site quality across Europe. Our most interesting finding was that the growth partitioning became more asymmetric and structuring with increasing site quality, but that the mortality eliminated predominantly small trees, reduced their size variation and thus reversed the impact of site quality on the structure. Finally, the reverse effects of mode of growth partitioning and mortality on the stand structure resulted in the highest size variation on poor sites and decreased structural heterogeneity with increasing site quality. Since our results indicate where heterogeneous structures need silviculture interventions and where they emerge naturally, we conclude that these findings may improve system understanding and modelling and guide forest management aiming at structurally rich forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Patterns of mixing effects on pine/beech growth-climate relationships were analyzed across Europe. • Tree growth-climate relationships were driven by the regional climate conditions. • Differences in climate-growth relationships between pure and mixed beech stands were evidenced in the driest climates. • On average, mixing had no significant effect on resistance to drought events. • Growth reduction during drought events was lower in mixed compared to pure pine stands in sites with higher water balance in autumn. Increasing species diversity is considered a promising strategy to mitigate the negative impacts of global change on forests. However, the interactions between regional climate conditions and species-mixing effects on climate-growth relationships and drought resistance remain poorly documented. In this study, we investigated the patterns of species-mixing effects over a large gradient of environmental conditions throughout Europe for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), two species with contrasted ecological traits. We hypothesized that across large geographical scales, the difference of climate-growth relationships and drought resistance between pure and mixed stands would be dependent on regional climate. We used tree ring chronologies derived from 1143 beech and 1164 pine trees sampled in 30 study sites, each composed of one mixed stand of beech and pine and of the two corresponding pure stands located in similar site conditions. For each site and stand, we used Bootstrapped Correlation Coefficients (BCCs) on standardized chronologies and growth reduction during drought years on raw chronologies to analyze the difference in climate-tree growth relationships and resistance to drought between pure and mixed stands. We found consistent large-scale spatial patterns of climate-growth relationships. Those patterns were similar for both species. With the exception of the driest climates where pure and mixed beech stands tended to display differences in growth correlation with the main climatic drivers, the mixing effects on the BCCs were highly variable, resulting in the lack of a coherent response to mixing. No consistent species-mixing effect on drought resistance was found within and across climate zones. On average, mixing had no significant effect on drought resistance for neither species, yet it increased pine resistance in sites with higher climatic water balance in autumn. Also, beech and pine most often differed in the timing of their drought response within similar sites, irrespective of the regional climate, which might increase the temporal stability of growth in mixed compared to pure stands. Our results showed that the impact of species mixing on tree response to climate did not strongly differ between groups of sites with distinct climate characteristics and climate-growth relationships, indicating the interacting influences of species identity, stand characteristics, drought events characteristics as well as local site conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most predictive models forecast significant upward displacement of forest species due to increases in temperatures, but not all the species respond in the same way to changes in climate. In temperate or mountain systems, biotic competitive interactions drive species distributions, and responses to climate change will ultimately depend upon productive and demographic processes such as growth, recruitment and mortality. We parameterized and used an individual-based, spatially explicit model of forest dynamics (SORTIE-ND) to investigate the role of species-specific differences in juvenile performance induced by climate change (juvenile growth and recruitment ability) in the dynamics of mixed forests located in the montane–subalpine ecotone of the Pyrenees. We assessed this role for two types of forests composed of three species with differing light requirements and sensitivity to climate change: (1) a mixed forest with two shade-intolerant pines ( Pinus uncinata and Pinus sylvestris ) and (2) a mixed forest composed by a shade-intolerant pine and a shade-tolerant fir ( Abies alba ). Our results show that for species with similar light requirements (i.e., both pines), small differences in sapling growth response to climate change can lead to significant differences in future species composition (an increase in P. sylvestris growth of 10% leads to an increase in its abundance from 42% to 50.3%). Conversely, in pine-fir forests, shade-tolerance results more decisive than climate-induced changes in growth in driving the future forest composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The progressive abandonment of traditional forest management over the last few decades has led to significant densification processes in most Mediterranean pine stands. In parallel, some of these stands have also shown tree-species diversification processes, the occurrence of which is considered essential for future adaptability and resilience to change. Here we aim to gain further understanding of the main factors driving these diversification processes via a case-study approach using the long-term-managed black pine ( Pinus nigra Arn. ssp. salzmannii ) forests of the Catalan Pre-Pyrenees (NE Spain). For this purpose, we sampled 155 plots distributed in 8 different stands and analyzed the role played by a number of microsite factors and stand attributes (including canopy openness and heterogeneity) on the abundance of seedlings ( h < 1.3 m) and saplings ( h > 1.3 m; dbh < 7.5 cm) of the main tree-species in the area (i.e. black pine, evergreen oak and marcescent oaks). Results revealed ongoing black pine recruitment limitation processes mainly associated to the high canopy cover of the overstory and the increasing abundance of shrubs, which may compete with pines for light resources. In contrast, we found that current environmental and stand-level conditions favor the progressive advance of the recruitment of evergreen and marcescent oaks, which are able to establish successfully under the dominant pine canopy. However, in the absence of canopy openings, light levels may not allow the established oaks (in particular the evergreen Quercus ilex ) to grow and progress to higher developmental stages. Our findings bring deeper insight into the role of stand-level factors regulating species diversification, and can be used by forest managers to adjust their practices (e.g. by modifying the spatial and temporal patterns of silvicultural treatments such as thinnings or selection cuttings) in order to favor this natural process and increase stand resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Browsing damage is among the most determinant factors that limit the establishment of tree seedlings in forests. In some areas, this process leads to massive mortalities that can reduce or even completely prevent the regeneration of some tree species. Mediterranean mountain forests have undergone during the last decades important changes in land-uses that have significantly altered the type and abundance of herbivore populations. In this study we assessed the impact of current grazing conditions in forest regeneration using a set of experimental plantations established in the Eastern Pyrenees in areas visited by domestic livestock (cattle and horses) and wild ungulates (mainly roe deer and chamois). We analyzed during 4 years the role of seedling species and size, mesohabitat (elevation and type of forest cover) and microhabitat (herbaceous cover, distance to shrub, and light availability) on the browsing-induced mortality of more than 500 seedlings of Pinus sylvestris , Pinus uncinata , Betula pendula and Abies alba , the most common tree species in the study area. Browsing-induced mortality for the three conifer species was much lower (<15%) than the one observed for B. pendula (>40%) and depended on both microhabitat – mainly on the distance to protective elements such as shrubs; and mesohabitat, with an interaction between the elevational belt (site) and the type of forest cover (gaps vs . understory). In the subalpine belt, browsing on A. alba and P. uncinata was higher during summer at plots located in the forest understory whereas, during winter, it was higher at plots located in gaps. The study shows that both mesohabitat and microhabitat can exert an effect on the patterns of plant damage by herbivores, providing useful information to adapt forest management in areas particularly exposed to them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We assess the influence of microsite factors on seedling growth and mortality. [•] Short periods of extreme climate have a strong impact on seedling mortality. [•] In the subalpine belt, this effect is mediated by the facilitative role of shrubs. [•] In the montane belt, competition exerted by herbs increases seedling mortality. [•] Mortality is higher for seedlings at the extreme of their distributional range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Predicting light availability in forest understory is a key step in the modeling of forest dynamics. Aspect is often the main source of environmental variation in mountain forests, and so aspect-induced differences in crown geometry and transparency can be expected to affect light transmission through the canopy and modify understory light predictions. To gain a better understanding of the effects of aspect on the light interception capacity of forest trees, we determined crown allometry and crown openness (CO) in 120 adult trees of three common conifer species in the Pyrenees (mountain pine, Scots pine and silver fir), sampled in eight montane-subalpine forests that each included two contrasting aspects. CO was calculated from digital photographs and several crown outlines were automatically determined to prevent user bias. We also calculated crown irregularity as the difference between crown surface area for the tightest and loosest outlines. Predictions of understory light availability obtained from a forest dynamics model were compared with actual values obtained from 115 hemispherical photographs. Crown length and CO varied across species following previous rankings of shade tolerance. Both pines had longer and wider crowns in the north aspect, whereas fir crown geometry was not affected by aspect. CO depended largely on the method chosen for determining crown outline, ranging from 0.10 to 0.56, and the tightest outline provided the best predictions of understory light (slope=0.89, R 2 =0.46). CO was also significantly affected by tree size and plot aspect (p <0.001): crowns in southern-oriented plots were more open for mountain pine and silver fir, whereas Scots pine showed the opposite trend. Predictions of understory light were significantly improved when crown geometry and openness were allowed to vary according to plot aspect (slope of the regression: 0.95, R 2 =0.50). Our results suggest that aspect should be explicitly considered when modeling ecological processes and dynamics in mixed mountain forests given its influence on both abiotic conditions and crown responses to them. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Belowground biomass equations for 14 juvenile tree species. • Estimators of root biomass based on tree sapling height, diameter, aboveground biomass. • Broadleaf species with higher root biomass for a given dimension. • Trend of increasing relative belowground biomass with increasing light availability. • Height to diameter ratio (HD ratio) negatively correlated to relative belowground biomass. Just as the aboveground tree organs represent the interface between trees and the atmosphere, roots act as the interface between trees and the soil. In this function, roots take-up water and nutrients, facilitate interactions with soil microflora, anchor trees, and also contribute to the gross primary production of forests. However, in comparison to aboveground plant organs, the biomass of roots is much more difficult to study. In this study, we analyzed 19 European datasets on above- and belowground biomass of juvenile trees of 14 species to identify generalizable estimators of root biomass based on tree sapling dimensions (e.g. height, diameter, aboveground biomass). Such estimations are essential growth and sequestration modelling. In addition, the intention was to study the effect of sapling dimension and light availability on biomass allocation to roots. All aboveground variables were significant predictors for root biomass. But, among aboveground predictors of root biomass plant height performed poorest. When comparing conifer and broadleaf species, the latter tended to have a higher root biomass at a given dimension. Also, with increasing size, the share of belowground biomass tended to increase for the sapling dimensions considered. In most species, there was a trend of increasing relative belowground biomass with increasing light availability. Finally, the height to diameter ratio (H/D) was negatively correlated to relative belowground biomass. This indicates that trees with a high H/D are not only more unstable owing to the unfavorable bending stress resistance, but also because they are comparatively less well anchored in the ground. Thus, single tree stability may be improved through increasing light availability to increase the share of belowground biomass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive exotic species threaten native biodiversity worldwide and their management is on the agenda of an increasing number of countries. We explored the potential of an ecosystem approach for the natural control of Gambusia holbrooki , which is among the most pernicious and widely distributed fish invaders. Individual-based linear mixed models were used to identify the ecosystem factors (conspecific density, environment and piscivorous birds) that most influenced life-history variation in male and female G. holbrooki (N = 654). All traits (body condition, growth, length, gonad weight, offspring size and number, real and potential fertility) were associated with at least one ecosystem factor from the 18 water bodies surveyed in north-eastern Spain. Models for female reproductive traits had the highest fit (R 2 = 0.89) and those for body condition in both sexes the lowest (0.12). The life history of G. holbrooki was mostly affected by its density; increasing offspring number at the expense of offspring size at the sites with the highest fish density. Weaker effects on G. holbrooki life history were observed for the abundance of piscivorous birds and water-quality conditions, including turbidity and nutrient concentrations. Although effects were not consistent between traits, outputs supported that G. holbrooki has a wide tolerance to changes in water quality. Therefore, actions based solely on environmental changes within the range tested probably will fail in reducing the proliferation of G. holbrooki , especially if its body condition improved at the most naturalised sites. Overall, this study suggests that the management of G. holbrooki using ecologically sound treatments is likely to be very difficult in stagnant waters. Preventing new introductions and direct removal once established are the most appropriate actions for the management of this small, highly prolific fish invader. Unlabelled Image • Invasive species threaten native diversity and their spread must be controlled. • Life-history variation in Gambusia holbrooki was mostly explained by its density. • Weaker associations were observed for bird abundance and water-quality conditions. • The best-preserved sampling sites had the fish with the best body condition. • Direct removal seems to be the best action to control G. holbrooki invasion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of many plant species worldwide. However, there is still no clear evidence showing a generalised direction and magnitude of these distribution shifts. Here, we have surveyed, in nine mountainous regions in Spain, an array of tree species along entire elevational ranges, as surrogates of their global climatic ranges, to test for elevational shifts towards cooler locations. We analysed the distribution recruitment patterns of five dominant tree species, recording the abundance and measuring the primary growth of juveniles in 306 plots. Three of the species have a temperate-boreal distribution with populations at their southern edge in the Mediterranean mountain ranges: Pinus sylvestris , Pinus uncinata and Fagus sylvatica ; and the other two species have a Mediterranean distribution: Quercus ilex and Pinus nigra . Despite the contrasting phylogenies and biogeographies, we identified a similar pattern in recruitment abundance across species, with an asymmetric distribution of juveniles (more recruits in the middle-upper elevation of their range), but higher annual growths at lower elevations. This survival-growth trade-off at the early recruitment stage may potentially counterbalance at population level the negative effect of global warming on recruit survival at the lower edge of species ranges. These findings suggest a demographic stabilisation process at the early recruitment stage of these tree species, and highlight the importance of considering the different demographic stages across the whole climatic range to understand the effects that climate change may exert on species distributions and population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Mediterranean region most climatic forecasts predict longer and more intense drought periods that can affect tree growth and mortality over broad geographic regions. One of the silvicultural treatments that has gained currency to lessen the impacts of climatic change is the reduction of stand density by thinning. However, we lack information on how the response of forest stands to different thinning treatments will be affected by climate change, and on the post-thinning temporal dynamics of water balance, specifically blue and green water. We adopted a modelling approach to explore the long-term effects of different thinning intensities on forest dynamics and water balance under climate change scenarios, coupling an individual-based model of forest dynamics (SORTIE-ND) with a mechanistic model of soil moisture dynamics and plant drought stress. We used as a case study three Scots pine plots across a gradient of climatic conditions, and we assessed the effect of site, three climatic scenarios and eight thinning intensities on tree growth, stand productivity, tree drought stress and blue water. The best thinning intensity in terms of stand productivity was obtained when between 20 and 40% of the basal area was removed, whereas the final stand stock rapidly decreased at higher thinning intensities. Moreover, the decrease in final basal area occurred at lower thinning intensities the drier the site conditions. Moderate and heavy thinnings (>30%) doubled basal area increment (BAI) of the following years in all the plots, although the effect vanished after 30–40 years, independently of the site and climate scenario. As expected, thinning was simulated to have an overall positive effect on the blue water yield and tree water status, which increased and also tended to last longer for higher thinning intensities. However, the magnitude of this effect on tree water status was most dependent on the site and climatic scenario, as drier conditions generally raised stronger and longer lasting reductions in drought stress for a given thinning intensity. Furthermore, our results highlight the existence of a site- and climate-dependent trade-off between the gain in stand productivity and the improvement in tree water status obtained by thinning, particularly for moderate or heavy thinning intensities. Our simulations suggest that thinning is a useful management tool to mitigate climate change but strongly argue against the application of general recipes across sites and appeals for carefully taking into consideration local climatic trajectories for management planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]