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Impairments in effort-cost decision-making have been consistently observed in people with schizophrenia (SZ) and may be an important mechanism of negative symptoms. However, the processes that give rise to impairments in effort-cost decision-making are unclear, leading to limited progress in identifying the most relevant treatment targets. Drawing from cognitive models of negative symptoms and goal-directed behavior, this study aimed to examine how and under what type of task conditions defeatist performance beliefs contribute to these decision-making processes. Outpatients with SZ (n = 30) and healthy controls (CN; n = 28) completed a cognitive effort allocation task, the Cognitive Effort-Discounting (COGED) task, which assesses participants' willingness to exert cognitive effort for monetary rewards based on parametrically varied working memory demands (completing N-back levels). Results showed that although participants with SZ demonstrated reduced willingness to work for rewards across N-back levels compared to CN participants, they showed less choice modulation across different N-back conditions. However, among SZ participants with greater defeatist performance beliefs, there was a reduced willingness to choose the high effort option at higher N-back levels (N-back levels 3, 4, and 5 versus 2-back). Results suggest that compared to CN, the SZ group's subjective willingness to expend effort largely did not dynamically adjust as cognitive load increased. However, defeatist beliefs may undermine willingness to expend cognitive effort, especially when cognitive task demands are high. These beliefs may be a viable treatment target to improve effort-cost decision-making impairments in people with SZ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When customers purchase goods provided by public utilities, such as telecommunications, water, gas or electricity, the predominant payment system is pay-later billing. This paper tests the effectiveness of a pay-as-you-go system and the importance of payment timing in reducing consumption. I conduct a lab experiment which mimics an energy consumption choice and randomizes the timing of when consumption costs are paid: Either immediately ('pay-as-you-go') or one-week after consumption ('pay-later'). Results show that pay-as-you-go billing significantly decreases energy consumption. Yet the decrease in consumption comes at the cost of needing more work time to complete a fixed number of real-effort tasks. As the design controls for a number of contaminating effects, present-focused discounting of the future energy bill under the pay-later system is the likely explanation for the change in behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study examined two procedures for assessing the discounting of delayed, hypothetical, monetary losses: the Adjusting-Amount procedure (Estle et al., 2006) and the Delayed Losses Questionnaire (Myerson et al., 2017), which was modeled on Kirby et al.'s (1999) delayed reward Monetary Choice Questionnaire. Of interest was whether these two procedures assess the same underlying construct. Online participants (N = 431) completed both the Adjusting-Amount procedure and the Delayed Losses Questionnaire. Results revealed that regardless of the delayed amount and whether the discounting measure used was atheoretical (area under the curve and immediate-choice proportion) or theoretically based (log k), the discounting on the Adjusting-Amount procedure was highly correlated with the discounting on the Delayed Losses Questionnaire (all r >.72). In addition, most of the participants (72.2 %) who showed one type of discounting pattern on one procedure (e.g., who increased choice of the larger payment with increases in its delay or who always chose the immediate payment) showed the same pattern on the other procedure. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the loss discounting procedures and measures studied here all assess the same construct. • Two major procedures for measuring discounting of delayed losses were evaluated (Adj-Amt and DLQ). • We compared theoretical and atheoretical discounting measures. • Regardless of procedure, amount, and measure, degree of discounting was highly correlated. • Most participants who showed one type of discounting pattern on one procedure showed the same pattern on the other. • The results suggest that both procedures assess the same loss-discounting construct. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In social and economic interactions, individuals often exploit informational asymmetries and behave dishonestly to pursue private ends. In many of these situations, the costs and benefits from dishonest behavior do not accrue immediately and at the same time. In this paper, we experimentally investigate the role of time on dishonesty. Contrary to our predictions, we find that neither delaying the gains from cheating nor increasing temporal engagement with one's own unethical behavior reduces the likelihood of cheating. Furthermore, providing individuals with an excuse to lie by inserting a delay between the time when private information is obtained and when it is reported does not affect cheating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prolonged grief (PG) is a potentially debilitating consequence of bereavement. Previous studies have associated PG severity with relative deficits in key future-oriented cognitive processes, including the discounting of future rewards. Individual differences in the rate at which one devalues the future have been associated with a range of important economic and health outcomes. To extend understanding of the mechanisms underlying discounting behaviour in PG, this study investigated discounting behaviour using an online paradigm where future consequences were made salient at the time of the decision. Ninety-four bereaved participants made choices to accept or reject offers that involved either an immediate gain and a long-term loss, or an immediate loss and a longer-term gain. Lower levels of social trust and higher PG severity were associated with greater discounting of future losses. Social trust but not PG severity was related to discounting of future gains. Results replicate and extend on previous findings in PG, and suggest potentially modifiable factors to reduce the biases in decision making processes that may contribute to ongoing dysfunction in PG. • Differences in delayed discounting are linked with important functional outcomes. • Prolonged grief severity was associated with greater discounting of a future loss. • Lower social trust did not fully explain this relationship. • Results highlight a bias in decision making that may contribute to dysfunction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fish meal is commonly used in the diets of fish, but its high cost and sustainability as a feed ingredient raise concerns. In order to reduce dependence on fish meal, proteins from plant sources are increasingly being recommended as an alternative ingredient in fish diets. The paper aims to examine whether risk attitudes and time preferences influence the decision to choose feed protein sources for intensively farmed fish. Using measures based on behavioural economics theories, we elicit risk attitudes and time preferences of 100 Nigerian fish farmers and estimate a double hurdle regression by assuming that fish farmers make their feed protein substitution decisions in two steps. The results indicate that risk-seeking farmers are less likely to substitute (risk-increasing) fish meal for plant-based proteins in fish feed. There is no statistically significant effect of time preference on the decision to substitute fish meal for plant-based proteins. Other results show that a higher level of education and income and a larger farm size positively influenced the decision to substitute fish meal for plant-based proteins, while male farmers were less likely to substitute fish meal for plant-based proteins. These findings suggest that farmers' risk attitudes, education, income, farm size, and gender are critical factors that policymakers and stakeholders should consider in interventions to encourage farmers to transition to more sustainable feed input. • There is a need to reduce dependence on fish meal due to high cost and unsustainability. • The paper extends insights from behavioural economics to aquaculture management. • We posit attitudes to risk and time drive the decision to substitute fish-meal. • Being risk-seeking reduces the probability of substituting fish-meal with plant proteins. • Time preference had no significant effect on the decision to substitute fish meal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In July 2018, the UK Minister of Public Health announced that human papillomavirus vaccination would be extended to 12-year-old boys. This decision was informed by updated evidence from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) published earlier that month. Vaccination of boys had been found not to be cost-effective in a series of analyses conducted for the JCVI, including the most recent assessment prior to the minister's announcement. These analyses were conducted under the standard methods for cost-effectiveness analysis recommended by the JCVI, which are primarily based on guidelines from the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Although the JCVI concluded they were unable to advise extending vaccination on the basis of standard appraisal methods, their most recent round of assessment also considered analyses using nonstandard appraisal methods. In particular, the JCVI noted that vaccination of boys was likely to be cost-effective when a lower discount rate of 1.5% is applied to costs and health effects, as opposed to the 3.5% rate usually employed. The JCVI stated that they were supportive of applying such alternative methods, and on this basis, they would advise extending vaccination to boys. This commentary explains the JCVI's application of nonstandard appraisal methods and considers whether it was justified. We conclude that the JCVI was not justified in applying the lower discount rate. We voice concerns that a willingness to endorse a politically popular intervention may have driven the JCVI to depart from a fair and consistent application of healthcare rationing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most pressing issues when making decisions over long-term environmental problems is deciding on an appropriate discount rate. This can be a highly technical discussion. While some argue in favour of market rates, which usually tend to be high, others support the use of near-zero rates to ensure that both current and future generations are properly accounted for. This paper presents an alternative approach to determining the discount rate for environmental assets in the case of land-use planning - the Equivalency Principle (EP) - based on the normative proposition that the social value of protected natural land should be at least the same as the market price of an adjacent land with similar environmental characteristics that has been granted permission for development. The paper first provides a theoretical overview of the approach, followed by an application of the EP at the land plot level across 11 European countries. Based on the EP, pure rates of social time preference that would equate natural and development land values within each administrative unit have been calculated. The findings show that the application of the EP usually results in discount rates that are lower-than-market rates and that are geographically differentiated. This implies discount rates that account for preferences of the society where the land or natural resource is located, with results ranging between 0% and 11%, with an average rate of 1% across study sites. • The Equivalency Principle tends to result in lower discount rates than market rates. • Rates based on the EP were estimated for 11 European countries. • Results support the premise of geographically differentiated discount rates. • Results show rates ranging from 0% to 11% across all European countries. • An average discount rate of 1% across study sites was estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper generalizes the basic complete information pure-action folk theorem such that it applies when discounting is present-biased and the discount factor between two successive periods increases with the waiting time until the periods are reached. We distinguish between time-consistent decision makers who maximize their initial preferences and time-inconsistent decision makers who maximize their current preferences, and our folk theorem holds for both types. Since discount functions are not assumed to have any specific functional form, decision makers are said to be patient if the sum of the discount factors for all periods is large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Different behavioral paradigms have been used to assess effort-based choice in rats. • The rat selects between an effortful, preferred vs. a low effort, less preferred option. • Generally, the preferred option is better in quality or magnitude. • We discuss a variety of experimental and theoretical approaches related to effort. • We highlight areas for future work and the relevance to the human condition. Organisms must frequently make cost-benefit decisions based on time, risk, and effort in choosing rewards to pursue. Various tasks have been developed to assess effort-based choice in rats, and experimenters have found largely similar results across tasks and brain regions. In this review, we focus primarily on the convergence of different effort-based choice tasks where quality or quantity of reward are manipulated. In the former, the rat is typically presented with the option to work for a preferred reward or select a less preferred, but freely-available reward. In such paradigms, the rewards are of different identities but are confirmed to differ qualitatively in value by a food preference task when both are freely-available. In the latter task type, rats are required to select between higher magnitude versus lower magnitudes of the same reward, but each with a similar effort requirement. We discuss the strengths/limitations of these paradigms, and describe brain regions that have been probed that result in converging or equivocal findings. Results are also reviewed with reference to a need for future work, and the broader impacts and implications of studies probing the mechanisms of effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Exercise is an important health behavior. Expressed reasons for participation are often delayed outcomes i.e. health threats and benefits, but also enjoyment. However, we do not know how people evaluate exercise as a reward. The value of rewards diminish the longer we have to wait for them and the discounting effect can undermine decision-making. Here, we investigated delay-discounting of exercise perception and its valuation with time delays; we conducted self-paced exercise sessions on treadmill and compared the discounting rates of exercise (k ex) with those of established rewards of food (k fo) and money (k m). Outcomes show, that young, moderately active participants (n = 70) preferred walking/running intensity with low to moderate cardiovascular strain and light perceived exertion. Delay discounting rates (k) indicated that exercise was discounted like other consumable rewards at the same rate as food and more rapidly than monetary rewards. Significant associations were detected of k ex with preferred speed and with extrinsic exercise motivation. Exercise training (n = 16) reduced k ex specifically, not affecting k fo. Our studies show, that participants perceived and discounted self-paced walking/running like a consumable reward. Exercise discounting was quicker in individuals who preferred lower speeds being less physically active and exercise training reduced the decay rate of exercise specifically. Highlights • Exercise perception and valuation of self-paced exercise was investigated in healthy adults. • Self-paced exercise was used for delay discounting in comparison with food and money. • Self-paced exercise was discounted like a consumable reward. • Exercise training reduced discounting rates of exercise specifically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • I introduce psychological models for how our perception of time changes with age. • I show that exponential discounters may be dynamically inconsistent. • I show that hyperbolic discounters are often more dynamically consistent than are exponential discounters. Abstract Our perception of time is both nonlinear and nonstationary, which makes preference reversals possible. I decompose the sources of dynamic inconsistency into a time acceleration effect and a time compression effect. Standard economic models focus only on the second effect. I show that when the perceived flow of time accelerates with age, the two effects can offset each other for hyperbolic discounters but not for exponential discounters. Such hyperbolic discounters would report discount rates that seem to imply dynamic inconsistency but would nonetheless manifest dynamic consistency in actual choices over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore how the intertemporal distribution of well-being affects the social cost of carbon. In contrast to the literature that studies parameters of a particular social welfare function, such as the discount rate, we shift the focus and directly assume a parametric form for the intertemporal distribution of well-being. This has the advantage of avoiding explicit discounting choices, which has initiated much debate. Specifically, we consider a set of intertemporal distributions that reach a steady-state at a pre-specified level of “sufficient” well-being, or equivalently after a pre-specified “end-of-growth horizon”. We numerically illustrate our results in DICE and find that the social cost of carbon increases over-proportionally with the sufficiency level of well-being. While the social cost of carbon in 2015 is US$ 7 if the sufficiency level is four-fold the present level, it is US$ 30 if the sufficiency level is 15-fold, and US$ 100 if the sufficiency level is 26-fold the present level. This shows in a transparent way how conceptions of intergenerational distributive justice drive the social cost of carbon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main approaches for computing very long-term discount rates – revealed and stated preferences – have limitations. We overcome previous shortcomings using derived preferences, i.e. we retrieve information on very long-term time preferences from happiness data and people's expectations about the living conditions of future generations. We account for possible endogeneity between expectations about the future and current well-being using 2SLS. We find that negative (positive) expectations about future generations have a very large negative (positive) impact on subjective well-being. This finding suggests that the very long-term discount rate is lower than implied by most traditional economic analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regionalized Negative Emission Technology (NET) portfolios can sustainably support climate change mitigation. However, current studies focus on individual technologies that may be unsustainable on the large scale. The existing studies also do not consider multiple environmental footprints, technological readiness, and ecological discount rates, which are critical for addressing the future environmental damages of climate change. This study addresses these research gaps by using mixed integer linear programming to develop a multi-footprint, multi-period, optimization model for NET portfolios. The model is illustrated with a case study in the Southeast Asian region until 2100. The results show varying portfolios, with the net present value ranging from USD 516–2783 B, and the negative emissions from 30.42 to 79.56 Gt CO 2. The cheaper, technologically ready options like afforestation and biochar are selected earlier in the portfolio, while the initially expensive, emerging technologies like enhanced weathering and direct air capture come later. Land and water are the limiting resources. Both carbon value discounting and using a high initial carbon price support the early deployment of NETs for climate change mitigation. The model currently does not consider synergistic/antagonistic interactions between NETs, multi-objective optimization, and parametric uncertainties, which can be included in future works. [Display omitted] • A multi-footprint, multi-period, MILP model is developed for NETs portfolio optimization. • The model maximizes the net present value of the portfolio. • Economic and carbon value discount rates are applied. • Different scenarios result in different NET portfolio configurations. • Results show how NET portfolios under resource constraints perform in a discounted carbon market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) are associated with choice impulsivity, i.e. the tendency to prefer smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards. However, the extent to which this impulsivity is mediated by shared or distinct underlying neural mechanisms is unclear. Twenty-six boys with ADHD, 20 boys with OCD and 20 matched controls (aged 12–18) completed an fMRI version of an individually adjusted temporal discounting (TD) task which requires choosing between a variable amount of money now or £100 in one week, one month or one year. Activations to immediate and delayed reward choices were compared between groups using a three-way ANCOVA. ADHD patients had steeper discounting rates on the task relative to controls. OCD patients did not differ from controls or patients with ADHD. Patients with ADHD and OCD showed predominantly shared activation deficits during TD in fronto-striato-insular-cerebellar regions responsible for self-control and temporal foresight, suggesting that choice impulsivity is mediated by overlapping neural dysfunctions in both disorders. OCD patients alone showed dysfunction relative to controls in right orbitofrontal and rostrolateral prefrontal cortex, extending previous findings of abnormalities in these regions in OCD to the domain of choice impulsiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose According to the rational choice approach, offenders consider costs and benefits when making decisions. This study applies this framework to sexual offenses and examines how various decisions made by perpetrators of sexual crimes influenced the desired and undesired crime outcomes that resulted. Methods The study examines 2296 crimes of a sexual nature committed by a sample of 898 offenders evaluated at the Massachusetts Treatment Center. Using Generalized Estimating Equations, 23 predictor variables measuring sexually coercive decisions made in each crime about four aspects ( who? , when? , where? , and how? ) are used to predict ten desired (positive) and seven undesired (negative) crime outcomes for offenders. Results Results indicated that decisions made by offenders in the context of their sexual crimes were mostly oriented towards the production of immediate positive outcomes and the prevention of immediate negative outcomes, but demonstrated little consideration for non-immediate negative outcomes. Conclusions Sexual offenders engage in myopic or hyperbolic discounting when making criminal decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public awareness of civil infrastructure performance has increased considerably in recent years as a result of repeated natural disasters. Risks from natural hazards may increase dramatically in the future, given current patterns of urbanization and population growth in hazard-prone areas. Risk assessments for infrastructure with expected service periods of a century or more are highly uncertain, and there is compelling evidence that climatology will evolve over such intervals. Thus, current natural hazard and risk assessment models, which are based on a presumption of stationarity in hazard occurrence and intensity, may not be adequate to assess the potential risks from hazards occurring in the distant future. This paper addresses two significant intergenerational elements – the potential impact of non-stationarity in hazard due to climate change and intergenerational discounting practices – that are essential to provide an improved decision support framework that accommodates the needs and values of future generations. The framework so developed is tested through two benchmark problems involving buildings exposed to hurricanes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study compared the two most prominent procedures for measuring delay discounting, the Adjusting-Amount procedure and the Monetary Choice Questionnaire (MCQ). Of interest was whether the two procedures measure the same construct. Results obtained from two online samples recruited using the Prolific (N = 150) and MTurk (N = 243) platforms revealed generally similar results for both procedures. Regardless of the procedure, the sample, the reward amount, and whether the discounting measure used was theoretically based (i.e., log k) or was atheoretical (i.e., area under the curve, proportion of choices of the delayed reward option), the degree of discounting on the Adjusting-Amount procedure was highly correlated with the degree of discounting on the MCQ, consistent with the hypothesis that both procedures assess the same construct. • We compared the two most prominent procedures for measuring discounting to determine whether they measure the same construct. • We also compared theoretical and atheoretical discounting measures as well as participants recruited from two online platforms. • Regardless of procedure, measure, and sample, degree of discounting on the Adjusting-Amount procedure was highly correlated with the degree of discounting on the MCQ. • The results suggest that both procedures measure the same construct. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Negative consequences of intensive forest management on biodiversity are often mitigated by setting aside old forest, but alternative strategies have been suggested. We have compared using simulations the consequences of two of these alternatives − setting aside young forests or extending rotation periods − to that of current practice in managed boreal forest. In all scenarios we applied a constant conservation budget and predicted forest development and harvesting over 200 years. As a proxy for biodiversity conservation, we projected the extinction risk of a dead wood-dependent beetle, Diacanthous undulatus , in a 50 km 2 landscape in central Sweden, using a colonization-extinction model. During the first century, setting aside young forest stands rather than old stands increased extinction risk because young stands have lower habitat quality. However, habitat quality of young forests increased as they aged and they were much cheaper to set aside than old stands. Therefore, the strategy allowed a larger set-aside area (within the budget constraint), resulting in lower extinction risk and harvested timber volumes in the second century. Prolonging rotations also decreased the extinction risk but was in the long-term less cost-effective. The most cost-effective strategy in the long-term (200 years) was to set aside a mixture of old and young forest. However, setting aside young stands rather than prolonging rotations or setting aside old stands delays both the benefits (lower extinction risk) and costs (lost harvest volumes), so the optimal strategy depends on the assumed societal values and hence discount rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the behavioral decision theory, time discounting is often used to explain preference reversals. However, the discounting theory fails to explain some types of preference reversals. Furthermore, preference reversals are limited to those along the time axis (i.e., temporal distance). To extend our knowledge of preference reversals in various choice contexts, this study constructs an analytical framework that combines the time discounting notion of behavioral decision theory and construal level theory developed in social psychology. We put forward three propositions for discounting: magnitude effect (the higher the construal level, the smaller the discounting rate), sign effect (the discounting rate is smaller for losses than for gains), and generalization of distance (discounting applies not only to temporal distance but also to psychological distances such as social distance). These propositions were validated in two studies. In Study 1, we conducted a series of three experiments on a lottery choice task using two samples of respondents (i.e., students and a web panel). In Study 2, we estimated the discounting rates of the higher and lower construal levels by employing multiple intertemporal choice tasks. While many choices involve trade-offs among attributes, the effects of changes in psychological distances are not clear. However, by identifying whether these attributes evoke high or low construal levels and whether the aspects are related to gains or losses, our approach greatly facilitates the analysis of how evaluation and preference are affected by psychological distance, and consequently, that of preference reversal behavior. • Preference reversals along psychological distances beyond the time axis are analyzed. • The framework combines time discounting and construal level theory. • Difference in the discount rates for relevant attributes results in preference reversal. • Magnitude effect: discount rate is smaller for high-level than low-level construal. • Sign effect: discount rate is smaller for losses than for gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clinical and preclinical studies on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) show that juvenile males that are exposed to methylphenidate (MPH) show reduced risk for substance use later in life. In contrast, little is known about whether females have the same enduring treatment response to stimulants and how gonadal hormones influence their behavior later in life. Females received either a sham or 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) microinjection in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) at postnatal day (P)10. Subjects were then treated with Vehicle or MPH (2 mg/kg, p.o.) between P20-35 and tested during late adolescence/young adulthood (P60); half of these subjects underwent ovariectomy at P55 to determine hormonal influences. Females with 6-OHDA were depleted of PFC dopamine by 61% and demonstrated increased impulsive choice (delayed discounting) and preferences for cocaine-associated environments relative to control females. Both MPH and ovariectomy reduced impulsive choice and cocaine preferences in 6-OHDA females, but had no enduring effect in Sham females. Ovariectomy itself did not significantly affect impulsivity. Juvenile MPH interacted strongly with 6-OHDA to increase D4, D5, Alpha-1A, Alpha-2A, and 5-HT-1A mRNA receptor expression in the PFC. MPH alone effected D1 mRNA, while 6-OHDA increased BDNF; all markers were decreased by ovariectomy. Together, these data suggest that 6-OHDA changes in dopamine are not only relevant for ADHD-like behaviors, but their long-term modulation by treatment and the influence of cyclical differences in menstrual cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence suggests that factors associated with obtaining a reward, such as the probability of receiving it, or temporal delays, could influence the reward’s subjective value. Several studies have suggested that increasing the effort required decreases the subjective value of a reward. Nevertheless, the nature of effort that results in discounting, discounting in a loss situation, and individual consistency in effort aversion across different types of effort have all remained unclear. Therefore, the present study examined whether physical, emotional, and cognitive efforts induce discounting of subjective reward value under two hypothetical situations. In the gain situation, participants made a choice about engaging in effortful work to obtain a reward, whereas in the loss situation they paid a reward to another person to do the work. The results demonstrated that increasing physical, emotional, and cognitive effort caused discounting of the subjective reward value in both situations. Additionally, the results suggested a relatively high degree of individual consistency in effort aversion in each situation, and a moderate degree of consistency across the two situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The central intent of this qualitative inquiry is to investigate the benefits, drawbacks, and performance measures of hotel room inventory distribution via flash sales websites. Key advantages and disadvantages of using such a distribution channel fall within the categories of inventory management, revenue management, brand marketing, customer relationships, and operational challenges. The significance of the study is in providing a comprehensive review of the flash sales phenomenon in the lodging industry that may assist hotel managers with the performance evaluation of this distribution channel. Using grounded theory methodology, a flash sales evaluation framework was developed based on 46 phone interviews with hotel managers from different segments of the American hotel industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current research attempted to decrease individuals’ rates of delay discounting by introducing decoys that are similar but inferior to delayed rewards. Two experiments in the current study compared patterns of delay discounting generated by repeated choices between two hypothetical monetary rewards in the absence or presence of a decoy. Binary questionnaires (i.e., decoy absent) included questions with two options: a smaller-sooner (SS) reward and a larger-later (LL) reward. Trinary questionnaires (i.e., decoy present) included questions with three options: an SS reward, an LL reward, and a decoy. If an option is at least as rewarding on every dimension of value as an alternative and the option is more rewarding than an alternative on at least one dimension, then the option is considered to dominate the alternative ( Wedell, 1991 ). The first experiment assessed the influence of decoys dominated by LL rewards (LL − decoys), which were constructed to be similar (on the dimension of amount) but inferior (on the dimension of delay) to LL rewards. The second experiment examined the effects of counterbalancing the order of binary and trinary questionnaires. In the first experiment, participants discounted to a lesser degree when LL − decoys were present as compared to when they were absent. In the second experiment, participants only discounted to a lesser degree on trinary questionnaires with LL − decoys when they had not previously completed binary questionnaires. Patterns of discounting generated by binary questionnaires were similar to those generated by trinary questionnaires when decoys are present; however, the degree to which individuals discounted delayed rewards was affected by the number of and type of options that were available. The current results join previous evidence suggesting that rates of delay discounting are sensitive to a variety of contextual influences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hoteliers face a paradox in managing the differences between actual and expected demand in their daily operations. While making adjustments in pricing, management takes control of identifying a problem, collecting/interpreting information, and finally making a choice whether or not to discount. The role management plays in influencing the pattern of shifting demand in relation to room rates needs to be addressed. The purpose of this study was to explore how discount choices are made by hotel managers and to investigate the role of human judgment based on contextual factors in the decision-making process. A conjoint analysis was used to examine the discount decision-making process. Findings suggest that time (i.e. booking window) is perceived as the critical determining factor that leads managers to make discount choices associated with poor performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an effort to reduce CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel burning, renewable energy policies incentivize use of forest biomass as an energy source. Many governments have assumed (legislated) the carbon flux from burning biomass to be neutral because biomass growth sequesters CO 2 . Yet, trees take decades to recover the CO 2 released by burning, so assumed emissions neutrality (or near neutrality) implies that climate change is not considered an urgent matter. As biomass energy continues to be a significant strategy for transitioning away from fossil fuels, this paper asks the question: To what extent should we value future atmospheric carbon removals? To answer this, we examine the assumptions and pitfalls of biomass carbon sequestration in light of its increasing use as a fossil-fuel alternative. This study demonstrates that the assumed carbon neutrality of biomass for energy production hinges on the fact that we weakly discount future removals of carbon, and it is sensitive to tree species and the nature of the fuel for which biomass substitutes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life-cycle performance, safety, reliability and risk are emergent issues for civil infrastructure systems exposed to recurring natural and man-made disasters. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness of the importance of socio-economic sustainability in research and practice in the field of civil infrastructure. Sustainable engineering solutions strive to achieve responsible stewardship of available resources and to avoid transferring the burden of costly maintenance or repair of civil infrastructure to future generations. The use of customary risk-informed decision frameworks, however, raises ethical issues in terms of project risk shared between current and future generations, especially when project expectations require it to function over extended periods of time that may be a century or more. In this paper, the relation between intergenerational equity in decision support frameworks for civil infrastructure is explored. We propose an intergenerational discounting method for civil infrastructure to achieve equitable risk sharing between current and future generations, and investigate the impact of discounting in life-cycle engineering on future generations and on sustainable decision-making. The effect of the proposed discounting method on decision consequences is highlighted through two examples; seismic retrofit of a dam and seismic design of a steel frame building. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sophisticated behavioral paradigms partnered with the emergence of increasingly selective techniques to target the basolateral amygdala (BLA) have resulted in an enhanced understanding of the role of this nucleus in learning and using reward information. Due to the wide variety of behavioral approaches many questions remain on the circumscribed role of BLA in appetitive behavior. In this review, we integrate conclusions of BLA function in reward-related behavior using traditional interference techniques (lesion, pharmacological inactivation) with those using newer methodological approaches in experimental animals that allow in vivo manipulation of cell type-specific populations and neural recordings. Secondly, from a review of appetitive behavioral tasks in rodents and monkeys and recent computational models of reward procurement, we derive evidence for BLA as a neural integrator of reward value, history, and cost parameters. Taken together, BLA codes specific and temporally dynamic outcome representations in a distributed network to orchestrate adaptive responses. We provide evidence that experiences with opiates and psychostimulants alter these outcome representations in BLA, resulting in long-term modified action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eliciting time preferences has become an important component of both laboratory and field experiments, yet there is no consensus as how to best measure discounting. We examine the predictive validity of two recent, simple, easily administered, and individually successful elicitation tools: convex time budgets (CTB) and double multiple price lists (DMPL). Using similar methods, the CTB and DMPL are compared using within- and out-of-sample predictions. While each perform equally well within sample, the CTB significantly outperforms the DMPL on out-of-sample measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In integrated assessment models (IAMs) economic activity leads to global warming, which causes future economic costs. However, typical IAMs do not explicitly represent the role of natural capital. In this paper, the DICE model by Nordhaus (2008) is expanded with a natural capital variable that is affected both by climate change and by depletive effects of economic activity. Due to a synergy between the two effects, the optimal policy of the expanded model features more and earlier abatement of CO 2 emissions than DICE. Interestingly, the policy implications are different from what follows if one tries to capture the depletive effects on natural capital by simply reducing factor productivity growth in DICE. Acknowledging considerable uncertainty, simulations show that climate- and savings rate policies from the expanded model are more robust in the long term than policies that do not consider non-climatic depletion effects on natural capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discounting future costs and health benefits usually has a large effect on results of cost-effectiveness evaluations of vaccination because of delays between the initial expenditure in the programme and the health benefits from averting disease. Most guidelines currently recommend discounting both costs and health effects at a positive, constant, common rate back to a common point in time. A review of 84 published economic evaluations of vaccines found that most of them apply these recommendations. However, both technical and normative arguments have been presented for discounting health at a different rate to consumption (differential discounting), discounting at a rate that changes over time (non-constant discounting), discounting intra-generational and inter-generational effects at a different rate (two-stage discounting), and discounting the health gains from an intervention to a different discount year from the time of intervention (delayed discounting). These considerations are particularly acute for vaccines, because their effects can occur in a different generation from the one paying for them, and because the time of vaccination, of infection aversion, and of disease aversion usually differ. Using differential, two-stage or delayed discounting in model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of vaccination raises technical challenges, but mechanisms have been proposed to overcome them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savings rates in the U.S. have reached an historic low, posing challenges to long-term economic well-being. Among individuals, impulsive spending is associated with preferences for immediate gratification, driven by a heightened sensitivity to immediate rewards. Three studies examined whether population levels of trait Extraversion, reflecting dispositional sensitivity to rewards, are associated with aggregate savings rates. In Study 1, cross-cohort increases in U.S. Extraversion, assessed from 16,846 individuals over 28 years, were associated with declining personal savings rates. In Study 2, regional variation in Extraversion as assessed from a sample of 619,397 participants was negatively associated with state-level household saving, although only Openness remained a significant predictor when all traits were simultaneously entered into a regression model. In Study 3, higher nationally-aggregated Extraversion predicted lower gross national savings in a global sample of 17,837 individuals from 53 nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anabolic–androgenic steroid (AAS) abuse is implicated in maladaptive behaviors such as increased aggression and risk taking. Impaired judgment due to changes in the mesocorticolimbic dopamine system may contribute to these behavioral changes. While AAS are known to influence dopamine function in mesocorticolimbic circuitry, the effects on decision making are unknown. This was the focus of the present study. Adolescent male Long-Evans rats were treated chronically with high-dose testosterone (7.5 mg/kg) or vehicle (13% cyclodextrin in water), and tested for cost/benefit decision making in two discounting paradigms. Rats chose between a small reward (1 sugar pellet) and a large discounted reward (3 or 4 pellets). Probability discounting (PD) measures sensitivity to reward uncertainty by decreasing the probability (100, 75, 50, 25, 0%) of receiving the large reward in successive blocks of each daily session. Effort discounting (ED) measures sensitivity to a work cost by increasing the lever presses required to earn the large reward (1, 2, 5, 10, 15 presses). In PD, testosterone-treated rats selected the large/uncertain reward significantly less than vehicle-treated controls. However, during ED, testosterone-treated rats selected the large/high effort reward significantly more than controls. These studies show that testosterone has divergent effects on different aspects of decision making. Specifically, testosterone increases aversion to uncertainty but decreases sensitivity to the output of effort for reward. These results have implications for understanding maladaptive behavioral changes in human AAS users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An expanding branch of research has estimated the potential costs of climate change, which are often expressed as the “Social Cost of Carbon” (SCC) or the costs of an additional ton of CO 2 emissions. Estimates of the SCC can be used by policy makers to evaluate climate change policies and greenhouse gas emission reduction projects by means of cost–benefit analyses (CBAs). Such analyses are complicated by the wide range of SCC values that have been reported in the literature, and the large uncertainties involved in estimating the potential economic impacts and related costs of climate change. This study presents a critical review of the reported SCC estimates by examining some neglected consequences of climate change, uncertain and extreme scenarios of climate change, the discounting of future climate change effects, the treatment of individual risk aversion, and assumptions about social welfare. In view of the many uncertainties and omissions in conventional cost–benefit analyses of climate impacts and the SCC, alternative approaches to decision-making should be considered for climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objectives Impulsive choice that follows transient anxiety responses is a potentially important outcome that may underlie maladaptive behavioral patterns that co-occur with high levels of social anxiety. However, little research has examined impulsive choice in relation to social anxiety. Rounds, Beck and Grant (2007; Behavior Research and Therapy , 45, 729–735) found that high social anxiety was associated with impulsive choice using a delay discounting procedure, but only in a non-threatening (control) condition, but several procedural confounds in that study may also explain the findings. The purpose of this study was to replicate Rounds et al. while controlling for potential procedural confounds. Methods High- and low-social anxiety adult college-students with no substance abuse history were assigned randomly to a public speaking condition or a control (silent reading) condition. In the middle of the task, participants completed a measure of delay discounting, which measures impulsive choice. Results Impulsive choice was not influenced by either social anxiety status or experimental condition. Limitations Other aspects of impulsive choice may be more sensitive to transient anxiety and fear. Higher state levels of social anxiety and transient anxiety may be necessary to detect a significant relationship with impulsive choice. Relatively high levels of impulsive responding may only occur in socially anxious individuals with current/historical substance abuse. Conclusions Neither anxiogenic laboratory procedures nor social anxiety status appear to influence impulsive choice as measured by the delay discounting task. Future research might consider examining whether transient anxiety influences other aspects of impulsive choice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ultra-violet indoor tanning (UVIT) is a pervasive issue that is increasing at record rates, despite obvious and well-publicized links to skin cancer. Recent studies on UVIT have found that frequent users face difficulty quitting and report symptomatology similar to substance-related disorders, causing the medical field to begin classifying excessive UVIT use as an addicting behavior. Despite calls for research, relatively little behavioral research has been aimed at determining the psychology of UVIT. This mini-review reinterprets the existing dermatology literature in light of the reinforcer pathology model of addiction. The relevancy of this model, in conjunction with the similarities between UVIT addiction and other substance-related addiction, suggests that behavioral economic research on UVIT is overdue. This mini-review concludes with directions for future research in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the US pursues health care reform, it is important to understand the patterns in demand for, and opposition to, public provision of medical treatments. Using data from a nationally representative survey, we develop and estimate a utility-theoretic choice model to quantify demand for publicly provided medical treatment policies. We find diminishing marginal utility for increased recoveries and avoided premature deaths. We also show how the utility associated with different types of treatment policies varies with the socio-demographic group that would benefit (e.g. men, women, children, and seniors) and the program's duration and scope. Our model further permits utility, and hence willingness to pay, to vary with each respondent's own gender, age, race, income, community ethnic fractionalization and immigrant composition, as well as the respondent's expected private benefits from the policy and attitude toward government interventions and overall health care funding allocations. Self-interest is a prevailing finding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to characterize some parameters which measure the "force of discount" in a discounting function (the instantaneous discount rate and the geometric mean of a discounting function), and relate them with the strong subadditivity and the so-called subadditivity of second order. We distinguish two intertemporal choice frameworks, depending on the consideration of time as an interval or both as an interval and a delay, and we establish some necessary and sufficient conditions to identify strongly subadditive and subadditive of second order discounting functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

111 Participants, recruited from Amazon's MTurk worker pool, completed Kirby's (2009) monetary choice questionnaire, which involves choosing between immediate, but smaller rewards and delayed, but larger rewards. Individual participants’ responses were scored in three ways: first, by calculating the proportion of choices of the delayed rewards; second; using the scoring procedure described by Kirby et al. (1999) to estimate discounting rate (i.e., the value of the k -parameter in a hyperbolic discounting function); and third, using logistic regression to estimate discounting rate ( Wileyto et al., 2004 ). Individuals’ scores calculated using the proportion measure and the logarithms of their estimated k values were very strongly correlated ( r s > .97). In addition, the proportions of choices of small, medium, and large amounts of the delayed rewards were strongly correlated ( r s > .80). Taken together, these results suggest that the relative ease of calculating the proportion measure does not require sacrificing reliability. Moreover, the proportion measure is atheoretical and very easy to calculate whereas estimating an individual's discounting rate requires assuming a theoretical model that may not be appropriate. Significant differences in the proportion of delayed reward choices were observed between the small, medium, and large delayed reward amounts, with smaller rewards being discounted more steeply than larger ones, replicating previous findings of magnitude effects. These results provide further validation of the proportion of delayed reward choices on the Kirby questionnaire as a measure of individual and group differences in discounting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Intertemporal choice has been drawing attention in econophysics and neuroeconomics. In this paper, we experimentally estimate the parameters and AICc (Akaike Information Criterion with small sample correction) of intertemporal choice models (exponential, simple hyperbolic, quasi hyperbolic, and -exponential) for senior undergraduate students and MBA students, respectively. Our results show that (1) regardless of gender or working experience, -exponential discount model always generates minimum AICc value, and it is thus the optimal discount model; (2) gender affects the degree of inconsistency and fitness of the discount model. Comparing to female participants, male participants have a higher degree of inconsistency while their discount pattern is better explained by -exponential discount model; (3) working experience has an interaction effect with gender. For male participants, working experience is inversely related to the degree of inconsistency and the fitness of -exponential discount model. On the contrary, for female participants, working experience is positively related to the degree of inconsistency and the fitness of -exponential discount model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate policy recommendations differ widely because of disagreements over what discount rates to use. Disagreement reduces the impact of economic models and signals a need for improved methodology. The problem is related to the choice of intergenerational welfare functions. A first questionnaire finds that the standard welfare function (SWF) fails to capture people's dislike of overshooting and fluctuating consumption paths. A second questionnaire reveals that when very-long-term sustainability of well-being is threatened, people's implicit discount rates resemble the low estimates used by the Stern Review. An alternative welfare function (AWF) reflecting consumption growth can potentially capture the preference structure revealed in both questionnaires. This makes the AWF an interesting candidate when searching for policies for sustainable development under uncertainty. Importantly, the questionnaires demonstrate that people are able to choose among policies by inspecting time graphs of policy consequences. Thus, it is possible to circumvent the complexities and disagreements introduced by welfare functions and discounting. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We measured utility curves for the hypothetical monetary costs as a function of time engaged in three everyday physical activities: walking, standing, and sitting. We found that activities requiring more physical exertion resulted in steeper discount curves, i.e., perceived cost as a function of time. We also examined the effects of gain vs. loss framing (whether the activity brought additional rewards or prevented losses) as well as the effects of the individual factors of gender, income, and BMI. Steeper discount curves were associated with higher income (annual household ≥ median of $45,000) and gain framing (which indicates loss aversion). There were interactions between gender and frame, and also income and frame: Females and higher income participants showed loss aversion whereas males and lower income participants were not affected by framing. Males showed less discounting in gain frames relative to females, whereas females showed less discounting in loss frames relative to males. In gain frames, higher income participants discounted more but in loss frames there was no effect of income. We also found individual tendencies for discounting across activities: if an individual exhibited steeper discounting for one activity, they were also more likely to exhibit steeper discounting for the other activities. These results have implications for designers of interventions to encourage non-exercise physical activities, suggesting that loss-framed incentives are more effective for women and those with middle class (or greater) incomes. Furthermore loss framed incentives have more uniform impact across income brackets because people discount loss frames similarly regardless of income whereas those with middle-class incomes are not as motivated by gain frames. Our results also demonstrate a general method for examining the costs of effort associated with everyday activities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The metaphor that individuals with episodic amnesia due to hippocampal damage are “stuck in time” persists in science, philosophy, and everyday life despite mounting evidence that episodic amnesia can spare many central aspects of temporal consciousness. Here we describe some of this evidence, focusing specifically on KC, one of the most thoroughly documented and severe cases of episodic amnesia on record. KC understands the concept of time, knows that it passes, and can orient himself with respect to his personal past and future. He expresses typical attitudes toward his past and future, and he is able to make future-regarding decisions. Theories claiming that the hippocampus plays an essential role in temporal consciousness need to be revised in light of these findings. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To investigate a potential relationship between financial and marine resource use decisions, we conducted a time preference experiment with 153 fishers and 197 SCUBA divers on Curaçao and Bonaire. The experiment was part of a socioeconomic survey wherein interviewees were asked about their fishing and diving practices, views on fish population and coral reef health, and preferred marine resource management approaches. We use a βδ-model to identify discounting and present bias. Divers had a mean individual discount factor (IDF) of 0.91, significantly higher than fishers' mean of 0.82. Fishers and divers had similar distributions of IDFs and present bias; overall 66% of interviewees were non-biased, 22% future-biased, and 12% present-biased. IDFs and present bias were able to predict management preferences after controlling for demographic factors. However, the effect of discount factors is unique to divers, and the effect of present bias is concentrated among fishers on Curaçao. Differences in time preferences between fishers and divers should be considered when developing management strategies. Transfer payments from the dive industry could facilitate a transition to sustainable fishing practices. Establishing property rights alone may not be sufficient for ensuring sustainability if fishers are present-biased and greatly discount the future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]