1. Reliability design of seawater desalination outfalls based on a novel probabilistic environmental assessment.
- Author
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Zarbipour, Pouya and Akbari, Hassan
- Subjects
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COPULA functions , *SAFETY factor in engineering , *PLANT size , *SENSITIVITY analysis , *CLIMATE change , *SALINE water conversion - Abstract
Due to climate change, desalination systems have been widely used in recent years as a suitable solution to increase freshwater resources. However, there are some environmental concerns about the disposal of brine water from desalination plants into the sea. In this article, a new probabilistic approach is developed for evaluating the environmental performance of these systems by considering the uncertainties in environmental input data. For this purpose, four levels of desalination plants based on the sizes have been defined. After modeling and performing a deterministic design for each level, the most important variables were identified by employing sensitivity analysis. Afterward, simple formulas for reliability analysis were derived using Bayesian regression to obtain the concentration and dilution of effluents. The sensitivity of these formulas to the input variables was also performed using Sobol analysis. Finally, the Probability of failure (Pf) was calculated for each level using seven reliability methods, including the well-known FORM, SORM, MCS, and four other new methods. Investigations were carried out by considering both the independence and dependence between the variables using the copula function, and the results show the importance of the dependence structure. For example, considering dependence structures based on the Gaussian bivariate copula can decrease the calculated Pf of the four defined levels by nearly 17.5, 21, 27.7, and 39.2%, respectively. The results also show the importance of considering safety factors in actual designs of outfall systems. Implementing safety factors based on an acceptable Pf is a novel approach introduced in this research to control the acceptable hours per year that excess concentration can surpass the environmental criteria. The introduced method can be applied either to design new desalination plants or to evaluate the reliability of existing plants. • A novel approach is developed to evaluate and design water outfalls based on probabilistic environmental criteria. • Variables affecting the performance of desalination outfalls were identified for small to big desalination plants. • Formulas for predicting effluent dilutions were derived using Bayesian regression with a Sobol sensitivity analysis. • Importance of considering variable correlations on the outfall performances is resulted via different reliability methods. • The introduced method is applicable to any new or existing plant and controls the times surpassing environmental criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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