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• Production- and Consumption-based carbon emissions taxation schemes are revised. • Carbon policies are applied to Europe, assessing economic and environmental impacts. • The World Trade Model coupled with Exiobase MRIO database is used for the analysis. • Application of Production-based carbon taxation leads to carbon leakage. • Results of Production- and Consumption-based schemes are comparatively analysed. Policy initiatives towards reduction of CO 2 emissions implemented so far are grounded on the so-called Production-Based paradigm: this approach allocates responsibility of emissions to countries that directly caused such emissions, without taking into account all the indirect contributions to CO 2 emissions caused outside country's borders, eventually leading to the so-called carbon leakage phenomenon. In this paper, the alternative Consumption-Based approach is proposed, and its effectiveness assessed: according to this approach, policy initiatives allocates responsibility for CO 2 emissions proportionally to the CO 2 emissions embedded in goods and services required by industries as inputs for production. Global environmental and economic consequences of carbon emissions reduction policies, applied at the European level based on both Production- and Consumption-Based paradigms, are comparatively assessed based on the World Trade Model with Bilateral Trades. Results of this study suggest that defining CO 2 emissions policies based on a Consumption-Based paradigm seems to be the most effective way to reduce the global carbon emissions, avoiding the carbon leakage phenomenon which may occur in economies regulated by Production-Based policies. Indeed, an imposed reduction in CO 2 emissions embedded in EU final demand through a Consumption-Based Accounting policy would result in a global CO 2 emissions reduction up to almost 1.2 Gton. On the other hand, an imposed reduction in direct EU CO 2 emissions according to a PBA approach would result in an overall increase in global carbon emissions up to almost 0.8 Gton. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to estimate the potential impacts of different COVID-19 scenarios on the Italian energy sector through 2030, with a specific focus on transport and industry. The analysis takes a multi-disciplinary approach to properly consider the complex interactions of sectors across Italy. This approach includes the assessment of economic conditions using macroeconomic and input-output models, modelling the evolution of the energy system using an energy and transport model, and forecasting the reaction of travel demand and modal choice using econometric models and expert interviews. Results show that the effect of COVID-19 pandemic may lead to mid-term effects on energy consumption. The medium scenario, which assumes a stop of the emergency by the end of 2021, shows that energy-related emissions remain 10% lower than the baseline in the industry sector and 6% lower in the transport sector by 2030, when compared with a pre-COVID trend. Policy recommendations to support a green recovery are discussed in light of the results. • Energy and emissions are compared for different COVID-19 scenarios in Italy by 2030. • The analysis is based on an integration of different models. • The scenarios consider different dates for the finish of the COVID-19 emergency. • The main drivers related to economic conditions and mobility demand are assessed. • Results highlight the contribution of the transport and industry sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine fuelled an energy crisis, which considerably impacted Europe given its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas imports. This study uses an ensemble of four global integrated assessment models, which are further soft-linked to two sectoral models, and explores the synergies and trade-offs among three approaches to living without Russian gas in Europe: (a) replacing with other gas imports, (b) boosting domestic energy production, and (c) reducing demand and accelerating energy efficiency. We find that substituting Russian gas from other trade partners would miss an opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation in end-use sectors while risking further fossil-fuel lock-ins, despite featuring the lowest gas price spikes and potentially reducing heating costs for end-users in the near term. Boosting domestic, primarily renewable, energy production on the other hand would instead require considerable investments, potentially burdening consumers. Energy demand reductions, however, could offer considerable space for further emissions cuts at the lowest power-sector investment costs; nonetheless, an energy efficiency-driven strategy would also risk relocation of energy-intensive industries, an aspect of increasing relevance to EU policymakers. • Three 'corner' strategies to replacing Russian natural gas in the EU are explored. • EU climate targets can still be reached in all three strategies, but costs increase. • Promoting energy efficiency or domestic renewables can boost end-use decarbonisation. • An 'energy efficiency first' response may save millions € in annual electricity costs. • Southern Europe is the most vulnerable to high electricity prices across strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]