32 results on '"Höök, Mikael"'
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2. Environmental impacts from conventional and shale gas and oil development in China considering regional differences and well depth
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Wang, Siyun, Tang, Xu, Wang, Jianliang, Zhang, Baosheng, Sun, Wangmin, and Höök, Mikael
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- 2021
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3. Bi-objective optimization of water management in shale gas exploration with uncertainty: A case study from Sichuan, China
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Ren, Kaipeng, Tang, Xu, Jin, Yi, Wang, Jianliang, Feng, Cuiyang, and Höök, Mikael
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- 2019
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4. Energy and water conservation synergy in China: 2007–2012
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Jin, Yi, Tang, Xu, Feng, Cuiyang, and Höök, Mikael
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- 2017
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5. Phosphate rock production and depletion: Regional disaggregated modeling and global implications
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Walan, Petter, Davidsson, Simon, Johansson, Sheshti, and Höök, Mikael
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- 2014
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6. Projection of long-term paths for Australian coal production—Comparisons of four models
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Mohr, Steve, Höök, Mikael, Mudd, Gavin, and Evans, Geoffrey
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- 2011
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7. Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook
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Höök, Mikael and Aleklett, Kjell
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- 2009
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8. Mitigation strategies of air pollution: case studies of China and the United States from a consumption perspective.
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Jiang, Yuqing, Tang, Xu, Zhao, Xiaorong, and Höök, Mikael
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CHINA-United States relations ,EMISSIONS (Air pollution) ,AIR warfare ,MARITIME shipping ,AIR pollution ,PATH analysis (Statistics) - Abstract
Sino-US trade has been widely analyzed in academic circles as a typical case of bilateral trade. However, the structural pathways by which the US final demand contributes to Chinese air pollution emissions have not been well quantified and analyzed. This study combines an environmental extended multi-regional input-output (EEMRIO) analysis with structural path analysis (SPA) to analyze the evolution and structural patterns of PM 2.5 emissions in China caused by 1764 types of final demand products in the US. It was found that the average annual growth rate of PM 2.5 emissions in China due to the US final demand was 4.83% during 1995–2015. The results showed that before the global financial crisis, the embodied PM 2.5 emissions in Nonmetal mineral products exported from China to the US were continuously decreasing, while embodied PM 2.5 exports in Machinery and equipment were rapidly increasing. The direct impact of American demand on China was weakened, with its share dropped by more than half to 3.94%, but the indirect impact remained steady. The embodied PM 2.5 emissions were also found to be gradually transitioning from the first production layer to the second and third, which relates to China's domestic economic development demand and environmental regulatory requirements. The maximum emission pathways for the major demand categories were identified, with emissions concentrated to Metallurgy and products and Sea transportation services. China should focus on specific industrial paths, implement comprehensive treatment of upstream and downstream, and achieve a low-emission industrial chain throughout the whole process to effectively reduce PM 2.5 emissions. • Identified the largest emission pathways for the major demand categories • PM 2.5 emissions in China caused by the U.S. was 4.83% per annum during 1995–2015 • Indirect influence of the U.S. on China's PM 2.5 emissions is gradually increasing • Key transmission node sectors include metallurgy product sector and sea transportation service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2022
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9. Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: Exploring metal requirements and the well-below 2 °C target with 100 percent renewable energy.
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Tokimatsu, Koji, Höök, Mikael, McLellan, Benjamin, Wachtmeister, Henrik, Murakami, Shinsuke, Yasuoka, Rieko, and Nishio, Masahiro
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RENEWABLE energy sources , *ENERGY policy , *HYDROGEN , *VANADIUM , *ZERO emissions vehicles - Abstract
Detailed analysis of pathways to future sustainable energy systems is important in order to identify and overcome potential constraints and negative impacts and to increase the utility and speed of this transition. A key aspect of a shift to renewable energy technologies is their relatively higher metal intensities. In this study a bottom-up cost-minimizing energy model is used to calculate aggregate metal requirements in different energy technology including hydrogen and climate policy scenarios and under a range of assumptions reflecting uncertainty in future metal intensities, recycling rate and life time of energy technologies. Metal requirements are then compared to current production rates and resource estimates to identify potentially “critical” metals. Three technology pathways are investigated: 100 percent renewables, coal & nuclear and gas & renewables, each under the two different climate policies: net zero emissions satisfying the well-below 2 °C target and business as usual without carbon constraints, resulting together in six scenarios. The results suggest that the three different technology pathways lead to an almost identical degree of warming without any climate policy, while emissions peaks within a few decades with a 2 °C policy. The amount of metals required varies significantly in the different scenarios and under the various uncertainty assumptions. However, some can be deemed “critical” in all outcomes, including Vanadium. The originality of this study lies in the specific findings, and in the employment of an energy model for the energy-mineral nexus study, to provide better understanding for decision making and policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2018
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10. Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A case of fuel cell vehicle.
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Tokimatsu, Koji, McLellan, Benjamin, Höök, Mikael, Murakami, Shinsuke, Yasuoka, Rieko, and Nishio, Masahiro
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Hydrogen draw great attentions to become center of the Japanese energy policy after succeeding rapid expansion of renewable energy and dash for gas, after the Fukushima daiichi nuclear accident. This study estimates the metal requirement for hydrogen technologies by using a cost-minimizing energy model on the global energy-mineral nexus. The models are consisted from production of resources, land use and land use changes, inter-regional transportation, energy conversion (power, liquid fuels, gas), production of materials, final demand, wood products, disposal of used products, and materials recycling. Two energy and climate scenarios were developed to represent primarily economic efficiency and environmental performance, respectively, under climate policies with 2DC target, and without any constraints. Based on the future hydrogen consumption, metal requirements and cumulative production were estimated, to compare with production levels in 2015 and reserves. Candidates of hydrogen technologies are, fuel cells (for vehicle, stationary), storage tanks, and production, utilizing sectors in transport, power, and heat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2017
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11. The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: A supply-side analysis.
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Wang, Jianliang, Feng, Lianyong, Tang, Xu, Bentley, Yongmei, and Höök, Mikael
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FOSSIL fuels & the environment ,SUPPLY & demand ,CLIMATE change ,ATMOSPHERIC carbon dioxide - Abstract
Climate projections are based on emission scenarios. The emission scenarios used by the IPCC and by mainstream climate scientists are largely derived from the predicted demand for fossil fuels, and in our view take insufficient consideration of the constrained emissions that are likely due to the depletion of these fuels. This paper, by contrast, takes a supply-side view of CO 2 emission, and generates two supply-driven emission scenarios based on a comprehensive investigation of likely long-term pathways of fossil fuel production drawn from peer-reviewed literature published since 2000. The potential rapid increases in the supply of the non-conventional fossil fuels are also investigated. Climate projections calculated in this paper indicate that the future atmospheric CO 2 concentration will not exceed 610 ppm in this century; and that the increase in global surface temperature will be lower than 2.6 °C compared to pre-industrial level even if there is a significant increase in the production of non-conventional fossil fuels. Our results indicate therefore that the IPCC’s climate projections overestimate the upper-bound of climate change. Furthermore, this paper shows that different production pathways of fossil fuels use, and different climate models, are the two main reasons for the significant differences in current literature on the topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2017
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12. Global Energy-mineral Nexus by Systems Analysis Approaches.
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Tokimatsu, Koji, Murakami, Shinsuke, McLellan, Benjamin, Höök, Mikael, Yasuoka, Rieko, and Nishio, Masahiro
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After the Great East Japan Earthquake, Japanese energy policy strategies have been directed towards seeking more diversified energy options, especially fuel switching to gas, rapid introduction of renewable energy, and pushing towards a hydrogen economy. While a secure supply of energy, or energy security, is typically argued within the context of energy resources, little consideration for energy policy is given to mineral resources used in various energy technologies. Many studies have addressed the specific mineral elements in technologies by borrowing energy scenarios from authorities (e.g., The International Energy Agency (IEA) energy technology perspectives (ETP)). Some have applied empirical estimation models such as logistic functions for their future demand projections. In this study, we used our own resource balance models incorporating resources of energy, non-fuel minerals, biomass and food, to illustrate future consumption paths for non-fuel minerals (including scarce metals) as well as our own energy and climate policy scenarios. Our approach is complementary, not a substitute, offering more insights to existing studies on energy-mineral nexus approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2016
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13. Carbon capture and coal consumption: Implications of energy penalties and large scale deployment.
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Thorbjörnsson, Anders, Wachtmeister, Henrik, Wang, Jianliang, and Höök, Mikael
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Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can limit carbon emissions from coal power stations, but unfortunately decreases the net efficiency of such power plants. This study examines the link between capture technology and coal consumption for large scale CCS deployment. Estimates of the efficiency reduction (i.e., the energy penalty, EP) are assembled for three main technologies. Pre-combustion CCS is most efficient (EP = 18.9 ± 3.9%), oxy-fuel combustion CCS is intermediate (EP = 21.4 ± 5.3%), and post-combustion CCS is least efficient (EP = 24.8 ± 7.5%). Published CCS scenarios are compiled and their associated coal uses are calculated using the obtained EPs under different technology pathways. Coal consumption using CCS can be up to 31% higher compared to equal non-CCS cases, leading to several scenarios exceeding projected coal production in resource constrained studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2015
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14. Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: A methodological foundation.
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Höök, Mikael
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OIL fields , *STATISTICS , *HUBBERT peak theory , *WEIBULL distribution , *ENVIRONMENTAL sciences - Abstract
Highlights: [•] Establishment of a theoretical foundation for depletion rate analysis. [•] Discussion on the connection to physical forces acting within the reservoir. [•] Empirical and statistical analysis of individual oilfields and regions. [•] The theory was found to be well supported by the data. [•] Discussions on the implications for peak oil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2014
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15. Evaluation and update of Norwegian and Danish oil production forecasts and implications for Swedish oil import.
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Sällh, David, Höök, Mikael, Grandell, Leena, and Davidsson, Simon
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PETROLEUM production , *PETROLEUM export & import trade , *INTERNATIONAL trade - Abstract
Abstract: This paper presents an updated historic oil production analysis as well as an updated future oil production forecast for Norway and Denmark. Previous forecasts conducted by academic and official agencies using a variety of methodologies are contrasted and their accuracy examined. The bottom-up field-by-field methodology is found to be precise in the short-term, as it deviates by less than 1% from actual production. The impact of declining oil production in the North Sea on Sweden is explored as a case study. The historic and future trends regarding Swedish oil imports are presented and their vulnerability assessed using the Herfindahl–Hirschman index. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2014
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16. Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model
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Höök, Mikael, Zittel, Werner, Schindler, Jörg, and Aleklett, Kjell
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COAL industry , *LOGISTIC model (Demography) , *ESTIMATION theory , *COAL reserves , *GEOCHEMISTRY - Abstract
Abstract: A small number of nations control the vast majority of the world’s coal reserves. The geologically available amounts of coal are vast, but geological availability is not enough to ensure future production since economics and restrictions also play an important role. Historical trends in reserve and resource assessments can provide some insight about future coal supply and provide reasonable limits for modelling. This study uses a logistic model to create long-term outlooks for global coal production. A global peak in coal production can be expected between 2020 and 2050, depending on estimates of recoverable volumes. This is also compared with other forecasts. The overall conclusion is that the global coal production could reach a maximum level much sooner than most observers expect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2010
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17. Development of oil formation theories and their importance for peak oil
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Höök, Mikael, Bardi, Ugo, Feng, Lianyong, and Pang, Xiongqi
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FATS & oils , *HYPOTHESIS , *PETROLEUM , *HUBBERT peak theory , *MINERAL oils - Abstract
Abstract: This paper reviews the historical development of both biogenic and non-biogenic petroleum formation. It also examines the recent claim that the so-called “abiotic” oil formation theory undermines the concept of “peak oil,” i.e. the notion that world oil production is destined to reach a maximum that will be followed by an irreversible decline. We show that peak oil is first and foremost a matter of production flows. Consequently, the mechanism of oil formation does not strongly affect depletion. We would need to revise the theory beyond peak oil only for the extreme — and unlikely — hypothesis of abiotic petroleum formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2010
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18. Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accuracy and current uncertainty.
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Wachtmeister, Henrik, Henke, Petter, and Höök, Mikael
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PETROLEUM production , *ECONOMIC forecasting , *PETROLEUM sales & prices , *SUPPLY & demand , *ECONOMIC decision making - Abstract
Scenarios and projections are important for decision and policy making. Accuracy of past projections can be useful for both scenario users and developers, for insight on current projection uncertainty, and for guiding improvement efforts. This paper compiles projections of oil production, oil prices and upstream investments from the years 2000 to 2016 from the annual World Energy Outlook by the International Energy Agency, and investigates revisions and accuracy of past projections and implied uncertainty of current ones. Revisions of world oil production, price and investments have been motivated by a combination of demand and supply factors. Downward revisions are mainly allocated to OPEC, while recent upward revisions are due to unconventional oil, in particular US tight oil. Non-OPEC conventional projections have been stable. Price and investments have been revised mostly upwards. Projection accuracy follows the size and directions of these revisions, with high accuracy for Non-OPEC (mean absolute percentage error of 4.8% on a 5 year horizon) and low for OPEC (8.9%) and unconventional (37%). Counteracting error directions contribute to accurate total World oil supply projections (4%) while price projections have low accuracy (37%). Scenario users should be aware of implied uncertainty of current oil projections. In planning and decision making, uncertainty ranges such as those presented here can be used as benchmarks. Scenario developers should focus improvements efforts on three areas in particular: tight oil, OPEC and new technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2018
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19. Lithium availability and future production outlooks.
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Vikström, Hanna, Davidsson, Simon, and Höök, Mikael
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LITHIUM , *ELECTRIC vehicles , *DEPLOYMENT (Military strategy) , *ENERGY consumption , *ENERGY economics , *PARAMETER estimation , *POWER resources - Abstract
Highlights: [•] Review of reserves, resources and key properties of 112 lithium deposits. [•] Discussions of widely diverging results from recent lithium supply estimates. [•] Forecasting future lithium production by resource-constrained models. [•] Exploring implications for future deployment of electric cars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2013
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20. Forecast of oil reserves and production in Daqing oilfield of China
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Tang, Xu, Zhang, Baosheng, Höök, Mikael, and Feng, Lianyong
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FORECASTING , *PETROLEUM reserves , *PRODUCTION methods in oil fields , *MATHEMATICAL models , *SIMULATION methods & models , *QUANTITATIVE research - Abstract
Abstract: As China’ largest oilfield, Daqing is of great importance to China, this paper analyzes the status of the Daqing oilfield and forecasts its ultimate recoverable reserves by use of the URR model. The forecast results are presented for three scenarios which show that the ultimate recoverable reserves in Daqing oilfield are 3574.0million tons in the optimistic scenario, 3169.3million in the base case scenario and 3033.3million in the pessimistic scenario, respectively. A system dynamics model is established and the quantitative relationships between variables in the model are determined. Total oil production, remaining recoverable reserves, annual newly discovered reserves, and the degree of reserves recovery before 2060 are simulated under the three scenarios by use of the system dynamics model. The forecast results show that the future oil production in Daqing oilfield will continue declining, under the base case scenario, from 41.6million tons in 2007 to 8.0million tons in 2060. For Chinese policy-makers, it is worth paying attention to the problem of whether oil production in new oilfields can effectively make up for the decline in production of the large, old oilfields. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2010
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21. Evaluating metal constraints for photovoltaics: Perspectives from China's PV development.
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Ren, Kaipeng, Tang, Xu, and Höök, Mikael
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TELLURIUM , *COMMODITY futures , *METALS , *ENERGY development , *CLEAN energy , *MAXIMUM power point trackers , *FUTURES , *PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation - Abstract
• Substantial increase of metal demand in China's PV sector will happen up to 2050. • The general scarcities of both base metal and byproduct metal have been found. • Uncertainties lead to the furcation of metal requirement in China's PV sector. • Two strategies to lessen metal supply risk have been put forward and discussed. • The energy-metal nexus is essential for China's low-carbon energy transition. Chinese PV industry can be expected to grow rapidly of until 2050, driven by ongoing decarbonization of the energy mix. Such large-scale deployments generate significant increases in metal demand that may induce resource dilemmas. In this study, dynamic material flow analysis is combined with scenario analysis to estimate future metal demand from Chinese PV industry and complemented by a supply risk assessment. It is found that the maximum annual copper and silver demand up to 2050 equals 79.6% and 58.5% of China's annual production in 2019. Similarly, the baseline scenario projects maximum annual demand of Tellurium and Indium corresponding to 598.1% and 161.8% of China's annual production in 2019. Cumulative base metal demand by 2050 for China's PV sector is 17.3–22.8 times that of in 2018, while cumulative silver demand increases by 4.5–6 times from 2018 to 2050. In the baseline scenario, cumulative byproduct metal demand by 2050 is 14–27.3 times larger than in 2018. High annual and cumulative supply pressures indicate not only the general scarcity of base, precious, and byproduct metals but also highlights the importance of building stable trade relationships for future PV developments in China. Two different measures are identified and assessed for reducing short- and long-term supply risks. Prolonging the lifetime from 25 to 30 years can achieve a cumulative metal conservation of 6.7–24.2%, while shorter lifetime will give rise to secondary supply if recycling technologies are implemented. A clean energy shift indicates that metal availability will become an important perspective for assessing energy security, implying that resource constraints should be considered in different planning levels for renewable energy developments. Strong interconnections between energy and metal supply chains indicate that coordination and holistic nexus views are required for achieving simultaneous sustainability in both systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2021
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22. The role of energy-water nexus in water conservation at regional levels in China.
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Feng, Cuiyang, Tang, Xu, Jin, Yi, and Höök, Mikael
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POWER resources , *WATER supply , *ENERGY consumption , *ENERGY conservation , *WATER consumption , *ECONOMIC development , *WATER conservation - Abstract
Abstract Energy and water resources are drawing increasing attention in China as indispensable elements of economic development and social stability. Energy production has led to widely debated issues such as water shortage and water pollution. Studies on their interrelation – i.e. the energy-water nexus – indicate that energy conservation impacts water resources. Energy conservation can bring synergy on water resources, but it is an unsettle issue to what degree energy conservation could indirectly protect water resources. In this work, we built an accounting framework to assess the synergy of energy conservation on both water quantity and quality at regional levels. Multiregional input-output (MRIO) analysis and economic parameters such as water price and treatment costs of water resources are applied to evaluate the value of synergy. The results show that Jiangsu saved the largest quantity of water with a volume of 63.7 × 10 8 m 3 , while Hunan achieved the largest reduction of wastewater with a volume of 3.2 × 10 8 m 3 during 2007–2012. The total synergy was divided into two aspects: internal and external. The former was generally larger in most regions except Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Hainan, Shaanxi, Anhui and Inner Mongolia. The results of an economic assessment show that China achieved 1.1 × 10 12 yuan of economic benefit through the synergy benefits from a holistic perspective. Jiangsu, Shanghai, Fujian, Shandong and Heilongjiang were primary beneficiaries due to their significant synergistic water saving and high shadow price of water resources. The proposed assessment framework may help understand the situation of regional resources conservation from both synergistic and economic perspectives. Highlights • Synergies of energy conservation on water resources are assessed in each region of China. • Synergies on both water quantity and quality are both considered. • An economic assessment model was proposed to evaluate the synergy. • Internal synergy is generally larger than external synergy in most regions of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2019
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23. Energy savings in China's energy sectors and contributions to air pollution reduction in the 12th Five Year Plan.
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Wang, Wenhuan, Tang, Xu, Yang, Xiaoguang, Zhang, Baosheng, Zhang, Yiqiong, and Höök, Mikael
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ENERGY industries , *ENERGY conservation , *AIR pollution , *FIVE year plans , *INPUT-output analysis , *ECONOMICS - Abstract
Energy efficiency and air pollution mitigation are critical issues for future development of the Chinese economy. Energy savings and their contribution to reduced air pollution from energy sectors during the 12th Five Year Plan are assessed using input-output analysis. A new dynamic quantitative method was developed to explore key sectors and identify critical paths for efficient emission reductions from energy industries. All the energy intensive key sectors, including Metal, Power, Chemical Products, Nonmetal are used to determine critical paths for emission reductions. Results indicate that the Coal Sector failed to achieve significant energy savings and did not contribute to direct and overall emissions reductions. The Oil Sector only achieved co-effects for reduction of overall waste gas, SO 2 , and particulates, while the Power Sector achieved emission reductions of all air pollutants. The results suggest that Chinese government should enact four main measures to achieve effective targets for energy savings and emission reductions: (1) Strengthen energy conservation in Coal and Oil Sectors , particularly the Coal Sector. (2) Promote energy conservation and emission reductions in highly energy intensive sectors to help emission reductions from other sectors. (3) Promote synergy effects of energy savings and emission reductions to enterprises. (4) Set lowest emission reduction targets for each department combined with targets for energy savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2018
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24. Digital economy sectors are key CO2 transmission centers in the economic system.
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Wang, Wenhuan, He, Yi, Lei, Yu, Gao, Wenqi, Li, Yineng, Lan, Hanlin, Zhuang, Shiheng, and Höök, Mikael
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HIGH technology industries , *CARBON emissions , *ECONOMIC systems , *SUPPLY & demand , *POWER plants , *DIGITAL media , *COAL-fired power plants , *GREENHOUSE gases - Abstract
The rapid growth of the digital economy has driven economic development, but the massive demand for electricity from digital reforms, coupled with China's coal-based power generation, has created a significant CO 2 emission problem. Previous studies have assessed digital economy sectors with an incomplete scope and a lack of carbon emissions assessment at the intermediary-side. To fill these gaps, this study assessed CO 2 emissions using input–output modeling of the core industry sector of the digital economy and the industrial digitalization sector at the production, intermediary, and demand sides, and identified key CO 2 transmission centers. The results show the following: (1) Digital economy sectors had a high betweenness and were important CO 2 transmission centers in the economic system, transmitting more than 4.08 billion tonnes of betweenness-based CO 2 emissions; (2) specifically, the industrial digitalization sector transmitted the most CO 2 in the economic system, and the digital product manufacturing sector was the core industry sector with the highest betweenness and a strong transmission effect on the CO 2 emissions in the supply chain; (3) digital economy sectors had large CO 2 emissions on the production, intermediary, and demand sides, and transmitted CO 2 more through the demand-side and key transmission centers. These results suggest that digital economy sectors can decarbonize and reduce CO 2 emissions by (1) improving material use efficiency in the digital product manufacturing sector, (2) reducing the use of carbon-intensive energy and materials in the digital economy sectors, and (3) establishing CO 2 emission disclosure rules, incentives, and penalties. • The digital product manufacturing sector had high betweenness. • Industrial digitalization sector was the largest intermediary-side contributor. • Digital economy sectors had large CO2 emissions from three sides. • Digital economy sectors influenced upstream CO2 emissions more through demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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25. Emergy-based energy return on investment method for evaluating energy exploitation.
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Chen, Yingchao, Feng, Lianyong, Wang, Jianliang, and Höök, Mikael
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RESOURCE exploitation , *POWER resources & the environment , *SHALE gas industry , *RATE of return , *ECONOMICS , *INDUSTRY & the environment ,ENERGY consumption management - Abstract
To consider the environmental impacts of energy resource exploitation and better estimate the energy return of investment (EROI), this paper establishes a new emergy-based method (EmEROI) that can capture the essence of energy resource exploitation. The EmEROI method treats environmental impacts and labor as particular forms of energy, and all forms of energy can be quantified by solar transformity, which is expressed in emjoules as a common unit. The Daqing oilfield is used as an example, and the corresponding EmEROI value is calculated via the proposed method. The results are then compared with standard EROI estimates. Our EmEROI result is much lower than the standard EROI result and presents a more pronounced declining trend. Our results also indicated that the EmEROI estimates conform well to actual conditions and are not as affected by industrial energy intensity levels as the standard EROI. Thus, EmEROI has the potential for use as an integral aspect of energy resource exploitation project evaluations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2017
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26. Trade-off analysis between embodied energy exports and employment creation in China.
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Tang, Xu, McLellan, Benjamin C., Zhang, Baosheng, Snowden, Simon, and Höök, Mikael
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EXPORTS , *EMPLOYMENT , *CONSUMPTION (Economics) , *PRODUCTION (Economic theory) ,CHINESE foreign relations, 1976- - Abstract
Moving towards sustainable consumption in China must factor in the drivers of production. China's domestic energy demand is affected not only by domestic demand, but also by foreign trade. The accounting of energy embodied in China's international trade has attracted much attention in recent years. In fact, embodied energy imports/exports are a part of the normal pattern of economic phenomena occurring through international trade, with exports of embodied energy contributing significantly to China's economic development. This research suggest that China's net embodied energy exports remained relatively stable before 2002, and then increased dramatically from 73 MTOE in 2002 to 502 MTOE by 2007 with an average annual growth rate of 47.2% over that period. The total employment creation reliant on these exports is 191.3 million people including direct employment of 44.1 million people and indirect employment of 147.2 million people in 2007, and the total employment creation increased quickly between 2002 and 2007, with an average annual growth rate of 9.1%. The share of employment created by exports in China's total employment increased from 16.5% in 1997 to 18.6% in 2002, and a more dramatic increase can be observed in 2007 of 28.1%. The exports-oriented sectors in China are energy-intensive from the perspective of embodied energy consumption, and the energy-intensive exports are located in nearly the same sectors as the labor-intensive exports. China will find it difficult to sustain the trade-off in costs due to unemployment if it wishes to reduce embodied energy exports. China needs to exercise patience and long-term reform to change the current development model because of its large economy and population base. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2016
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27. Offshore oil: Investigating production parameters of fields of varying size, location and water depth.
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Sällh, David, Wachtmeister, Henrik, Tang, Xu, and Höök, Mikael
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WATER depth , *PETROLEUM , *DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory) , *PARAMETER estimation - Abstract
This paper derives empirical estimates of field depletion level, depletion rate, decline rate and characteristic time intervals in offshore oil production based on a global field-by-field database containing 603 offshore oil fields. Statistical distributions as well as arithmetic and weighted averages of production parameters are derived for different categories of fields specified by size, location and water depth. A significant tendency of small fields having higher depletion and decline rates is found. Similarly, OECD countries generally have higher rates compared to non-OECD countries. Trends related to water depth are not clearly distinguishable and require additional investigation of time related aspects. Resulting spreads in derived parameter estimates are found to be well described by positively skewed probability distributions. Also, in line with theory, a strong correlation between depletion and decline rate is found. According to the study, the net share of global offshore production from smaller and deeper fields is increasing. A continuation of these trends would likely have implications for future aggregate offshore production behaviour, most notably, increasing global aggregate decline rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2015
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28. Reviewing electricity production cost assessments.
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Larsson, Simon, Fantazzini, Dean, Davidsson, Simon, Kullander, Sven, and Höök, Mikael
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ELECTRIC power production , *INDUSTRIAL costs , *DECISION making , *GAS turbines , *PRESSURIZED water reactors - Abstract
Abstract: A thorough review of twelve recent studies of production costs from different power generating technologies was conducted and a wide range in cost estimates was found. The reviewed studies show differences in their methodologies and assumptions, making the stated cost figures not directly comparable and unsuitable to be generalized to represent the costs for entire technologies. Moreover, current levelized costs of electricity methodologies focus only on the producer's costs, while additional costs viewed from a consumer perspective and on external costs with impact on society should be included if these results are to be used for planning. Although this type of electricity production cost assessments can be useful, the habit of generalizing electricity production cost figures for entire technologies is problematic. Cost escalations tend to occur rapidly with time, the impact of economies of scale is significant, costs are in many cases site-specific, and country-specific circumstances affect production costs. Assumptions on the cost-influencing factors such as discount rates, fuel prices and heat credits fluctuate considerably and have a significant impact on production cost results. Electricity production costs assessments similar to the studies reviewed in this work disregard many important cost factors, making them inadequate for decision and policy making, and should only be used to provide rough ballpark estimates with respect to a given system boundary. Caution when using electricity production cost estimates are recommended, and further studies investigating cost under different circumstances, both for producers and society as a whole are called for. Also, policy makers should be aware of the potentially widely different results coming from electricity production cost estimates under different assumptions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
29. Chinese coal supply and future production outlooks.
- Author
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Wang, Jianliang, Feng, Lianyong, Davidsson, Simon, and Höök, Mikael
- Subjects
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COAL reserves , *COAL products , *POWER resources , *GREENHOUSE gas mitigation ,ECONOMIC conditions in China - Abstract
Abstract: China's energy supply is dominated by coal, making projections of future coal production in China important. Recent forecasts suggest that Chinese coal production may reach a peak in 2010–2039 but with widely differing peak production levels. The estimated URR (ultimately recoverable resources) influence these projections significantly, however, widely different URR-values were used due to poor understanding of the various Chinese coal classification schemes. To mitigate these shortcomings, a comprehensive investigation of this system and an analysis of the historical evaluation of resources and reporting issues are performed. A more plausible URR is derived, which indicates that many analysts underestimate volumes available for exploitation. Projections based on the updated URR using a modified curve-fitting model indicate that Chinese coal production could peak as early as 2024 at a maximum annual production of 4.1 Gt. By considering other potential constraints, it can be concluded that peak coal in China appears inevitable and immediate. This event can be expected to have significant impact on the Chinese economy, energy strategies and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions reduction strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
30. Net oil exports embodied in China's international trade: An input–output analysis
- Author
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Tang, Xu, Zhang, Baosheng, Feng, Lianyong, Snowden, Simon, and Höök, Mikael
- Subjects
- *
INPUT-output analysis , *EXPORTS , *PETROLEUM industry , *INTERNATIONAL trade , *FINANCIAL crises , *ELECTRONIC equipment - Abstract
Abstract: As the world''s second largest oil importer, China has been one of the important factors which affect the global oil market. In recent years, China has attained great international trade surplus through exporting a large number of “Made in China” products even during the global economic crisis. Due to direct and indirect effects in production chain, each "Made in China" product contains oil directly or indirectly. China is exporting much oil through “Made in China” products, which is not often considered even within China. An input–output model is established to calculate oil embodied in the international trade of China. The research results suggest the following: China''s net oil exports embodied in the international trade were 87.02 million tonnes in 2007; manufacture of communication equipment, computers and other electronic equipment is the largest sector to export embodied oil; United States, China Hong Kong SAR and Netherlands are the top three countries and regions which benefit most from the embodied oil in “Made in China” products. China''s adjusted degree of dependence on foreign oil is 24.9% in 2007, and 38.4% in 2011 if net oil exports embodied in international trade are considered. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
31. Bridging energy and metal sustainability: Insights from China's wind power development up to 2050.
- Author
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Ren, Kaipeng, Tang, Xu, Wang, Peng, Willerström, Jakob, and Höök, Mikael
- Subjects
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WIND power , *RARE earth metals , *EFFECT of human beings on climate change , *METALS , *ENERGY industries , *NONFERROUS metals - Abstract
Concerns over anthropogenic climate change and sustainable development motivate rapid expansion of renewable energy in China. This paper explores metal demand caused by projected wind power developments in China up to 2050. Dynamic material flow analysis is combined with explorative energy scenarios to evaluate induced demand of base metals (copper, steel, aluminum, nickel) and rare earth elements (neodymium and dysprosium). The results indicate that annual demand of base metals for Chinese wind power is up to 12 times larger in 2050 than in 2018, and the cumulative demand is up to 23 times larger. Copper and nickel show greater supply pressure than aluminum and steel in the wind power sector. Cumulative copper and nickel demand of wind power sector are 9–11.9 Mt and 2.1–2.8 Mt respectively, which corresponds to 35–45.9% of copper reserves and 74–101% of nickel reserves in China. For rare earth elements demand, more than 18-fold increases are expected for annual demand in 2050 compared with 2020, and cumulative demand of neodymium and dysprosium are 1.6–3.3% and 1.4–2.8% of their reserves respectively. Recycling will play an important role after 2050 as a secondary supply of metal for Chinese wind power, and lacks noteworthy impacts on short-term future outlooks. • Technology uncertainties determine metal demand and influence metal supply risks. • Nickel, copper and REEs play critical role in Chinese wind power deployment. • EoL recycling enables increase of China's long-term secondary supply of metal. • To achieve energy-metal system's co-benefits needs system nexus thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
32. Extended-exergy based energy return on investment method and its application to shale gas extraction in China.
- Author
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Chen, Yingchao, Feng, Lianyong, Tang, Songlin, Wang, Jianliang, Huang, Chen, and Höök, Mikael
- Abstract
Energy Return on Investment (EROI) has become a policy analysis tool related to sustainability. However, most EROI studies adopt the standard EROI method, which has two inherent defects. First, standard EROI leaves out energy quality. Second, input factors such as labor, auxiliary services and environmental factors are not considered. Therefore, this paper introduces exergy into the EROI calculation and establishes a new extended exergy-based EROI (ExEROI). ExEROI treats "available energy" as energy quality; with the idea of embodied flows, ExEROI quantifies all the five input factors of the EROI analysis framework. Shale gas exploitation in the Sichuan Basin is used as an example in the case study. The ExEROI result is 9.68, which is much lower than the standard EROI result of 82.95. This is due to the inclusion of more input factors and the fact that the input factors are measured by exergy. Specifically, the auxiliary service input factor accounts for 77.10% of the total inputs, and such inputs are ignored by the standard EROI method. ExEROI makes up for the shortcomings of standard EROI and avoids the possible misinformation caused by standard EROI. ExEROI has the potential for use as an integral aspect of energy resource exploitation evaluations. Image 1 • A new extended-exergy based EROI method (ExEROI) is established. • ExEROI realizes the quantification of all the five input factors in EROI analysis. • For technology-dependent energy resources, auxiliary service has a decisive role. • Shale gas exploitation in Sichuan Basin is used as an example to case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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