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The synergic reduction of VOCs and CO 2 emissions is significant for achieving sustainable development. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation are used to investigate the socio-economic influencing factors of VOCs and CO 2 emissions and predict the future trends of VOCs and CO 2 emissions. The results show that during 1995–2020, the per capita GDP effect contributed the most to VOCs and CO 2 emission increase, followed by population effect. On the contrary, the energy intensity effect was the largest contributor for VOCs and CO 2 emission decrease, followed by energy structure effect. The synergic effect was evident in VOCs emission decrease, indicating that achieving a co-reduction in VOCs and CO 2 emissions has been increasingly possible. During different Five-Year Plan periods of China, per capita GDP maintained the largest driver of VOCs and CO 2 emission increase, while energy intensity kept the crucial driver of VOCs and CO 2 emission decrease. During 2020–2035, the synergic reduction of both VOCs and CO 2 emissions will be realized under lower-emission (LU) scenario, while the trajectories of VOCs and CO 2 emissions will show a synergic growth under higher-emission (HU) scenario. The future trends of VOCs and CO 2 emissions will show an opposite direction under business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Based on such results, several policy implications are proposed, including developing energy-saving technologies, clean energy utilization, eco-friendly way of life, and optimized government management mechanism. • Key socio-economic drivers of VOCs and CO 2 emissions in China are uncovered. • Scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are used for projecting the emissions. • Energy intensity and energy structure effects drove VOCs and CO 2 emission decrease. • Synergic reduction of VOCs and CO 2 emissions will be realized under LU scenario. • Policy implications are proposed for synergic emission abatement of VOCs and CO 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Normalization is applied to calculate the magnitude of an impact relative to the total impact of a given reference in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Normalized profiles of environmental impacts depend on geographical areas due to differences in the industrial and economic activities. So far, Normalization factors for China are not developed to conduct life cycle assessment analysis. The purpose of this research is to propose a database of normalization factors (NFs) covering 18 environmental impact categories in a Chinese context to fill the research gap. To establish the local database, we collected the domestic inventory of emission and resources extraction in China with necessary data extrapolation and then calculated the normalization factors based on the international model ReCiPe2016. Furthermore, normalization factors for each impact category are differentiated into individual and national levels, and the substance contribution proportion of the 18 environmental impact categories is quantified. In addition, we used the Data Quality Indicator (DQI) model to evaluate the data source of impact categories, while analyzing the uncertainty of normalization factors quantitatively based on the evaluation result. The results of the quantitative analyses showed uncertainty intervals for the normalization factors. It was found that ionizing radiation and toxicity got the largest uncertainty intervals among the normalization factors for all impact categories, owing to the low completeness of the inventory of substances in those two impact categories. According to the data quality indicators of impact categories, we located the data gap in domestic inventory and proposed measures to promote comprehensiveness of inventory. This China Normalization Factors Database provides the LCA researchers with a starting point for a subsequent weighing step and improves the accuracy of LCA study at the Chinese territory. • The domestic inventory of emission and resources extraction in China is collected. • A normalization factor database of LCA in China is established. • The characteristic pollutants identified in China are compared with those in the world. • A data quality matrix analysis of impact category is built for the uncertainty analysis. • Measures to diminish uncertainty are raised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The tremendous use of building materials poses heavy threats to resources and the environment. In order to better understand the GHG emissions embodied in the abundant building material consumption of Shanghai's buildings and search for approaches to reduce GHG emissions, this study explores the building consumption and the embodied GHG emission in Shanghai's buildings through life cycle assessment. Novel and localized life cycle inventories are applied. Based on our findings, the average annual growth rate of new constructed area in Shanghai was around 10% since 2000 to 2016. Concrete, brick, sand, gravel and cement (non-concrete use) appear as the main materials used. High GHG emission burden materials per kg are revealed to be steel, lime, wood, glass and cement (non-concrete use). Accounting the annual material consumption in 2016, steel, cement (non-concrete use), concrete and brick are found have the highest contribution to embodied GHG emission in Shanghai. The decoupling analysis reveals Shanghai experienced a general trend from non-decoupling to relative decoupling between building material use and GDP in recent 17 years. Findings in this study indicate for the high GHG emission burden materials such as steel and lime, reducing the energy use and using less CO 2 -intensive energy sources during manufacturing are likely to be the most effective approaches. In terms of the highly consumed building materials such as concrete and brick, the focus should be on reducing consumption or looking for substitute materials with lower GHG burden per unit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contemporary debate considering the use of natural resources in economic growth centres around the concept of ‘decoupling’ driven through improvements in resource efficiency. Many studies extrapolate future demand from a short time series of previous years. However, we believe there should be greater attention on the underlying demand assumptions and the possibility of long-term changes. Accordingly, this paper is concerned with a potential saturation in material use as a result of countries moving through stages of development over decades from early industrialisation, over mass production and into a mature stage. An observation of such saturation is relevant for global environmental change as future demand for resources could be lower than currently expected, leading to less associated environmental pressures. In particular, emerging economies are undergoing changing growth patterns, and their future resource use may be significantly lower than contemporary analysis suggests. This paper combines the analytical strands of resource economics and material flow analysis. It investigates both material-specific demand and stock build-up trends over an extended time horizon of a century. Four materials (steel, cement, aluminium and copper) are analysed applying an indicator called ‘Apparent Domestic Consumption’ (ADC) and using international trade data for four industrialised countries (Germany, Japan, UK, USA) together with China as the most preeminent emerging economy. Our results confirm the occurrence of a saturation effect for most materials considered. While the evidence is strong for the per capita apparent consumption of steel, copper and cement in the four industrialised countries, it is somewhat weaker for aluminium. Also, such saturation in material use can start at different income levels, with the saturation beginning to occur relatively early for steel and cement ($12,000 GDP/capita) and later for copper ($20,000 GDP/capita). The results suggest a time gap of around thirty+ years from the take-off of large-scale adoption of one type of material and any saturation occurring. We also shed light on the build-up of stocks in the economy, where our findings suggest there is a delayed saturation of at least twenty years compared to apparent consumption depending on the lifetimes of capital goods. With regard to China, a demand saturation for steel and copper has already started to occur, and our analysis suggests such saturation will soon take place for cement. These findings provide a more moderate outlook on China’s future material demand compared to an extrapolation of recent dynamics. Our new insights on the nexus between economic growth, development stages and the use of natural resources have implications for the decoupling debate and for investments into commodities. From a wider environmental policy perspective, one may expect China and other emerging economies to achieve a saturation effect soon and therefore also peak their industrial emissions of greenhouse gases, supporting the nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The environmental burden of multi-Si PV modules in China has been discussed in existing studies, however, their data are mostly from local enterprises, and none of their environmental assessment involves the decommissioning and recycling process. This study quantitatively assesses the life-cycle environmental impacts of Chinese Multi-crystalline Photovoltaic Systems involving the recycling process. The LCA software GaBi is applied to establish the LCA model and to perform the calculation, and ReCiPe method is chosen to quantify the environmental impacts. LCA of production process reveals that Polysilicon production, Cell processing and Modules assembling have relatively higher environmental impact than processes of Industrial silicon smelting and Ingot casting and Wafer slicing. Among the 14 environmental impact categories evaluated by ReCiPe methodology, the most prominent environment impacts are found as Climate Change and Human Toxicity. LCA including recycling process reveals that although recycling process has environmental impact, the recycling scenario has less environmental impact by comparing with the landfill scenario. Among the five manufacturing processes and recycling process, environmental impacts of polysilicon production, cell processing and modules assembling have relatively higher uncertainty, probably because that the environmental impact of these processes is high, and standard error of parameters such as electricity, aluminum and glass in the three processes are high. Findings of our study indicate that proper measures should be taken in the high pollution processes such as polysilicon production and cell processing. In addition, efforts should also be made to enhance the recovery rate and seek for more environmental friendly materials in the recycling process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing worldwide demand for Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction has led to a new age of energy saving. Besides the energy saving extent, the costs of energy saving measures as well as the environmental and social impacts are also necessary to be evaluated in order to make sure that the application of these measures can also meet sustainable development requirements. Thus, a sustainability evaluation method based on Life Cycle Theory is innovatively designed in this study. We present its new aspects, describe its working steps in detail and also test this new method by means of a case study on Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP), which is a renewable technology that is widely applied in the building sector in China. Data for the case study is collected by literature review and site investigation. Results show that the energy consumption of the investigated GSHP cases has an energy saving rate as around 40.2%.The main environmental impacts of GSHP are found to be global warming, acidification and eutrophication in the production process, and soil temperature change in the operation process. The prevention cost of the environmental impacts is around 15.84 RMB/m 2 in the production process, and 5 RMB/m 2 in the operation process. The payback time of our cases is around 4 years, and it will rise to 4.29 years if accounting the environmental prevention cost. We conclude based on the case study that our assessment method proofs to be useful as it can demonstrate comprehensive characteristics of sustainability for energy saving measures in the whole life cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to comparatively analyze the carbon reduction potential of several low carbon technologies by means of different assessment and planning methods for regional development. Seven commonly used building energy saving technologies are evaluated and the priority-setting among them is identified on the example of the building sector in Chongming Island, Shanghai. By applying Decoupling Theory, the CO 2 emission reduction extent under a low carbon scenario and an ideal scenario are estimated for 2030. The required application areas for different technology schemes are calculated using the Technology Combination Planning Method. In order to further find out required application areas for each technology under the least costs, the Goal Programming Method is then applied. Findings of the Technology Combination Planning Method reveal that the combination of energy saving technologies with high GHG emission reduction such as building insulation and geothermal heat pump have obvious effect in helping reducing the required technology application area. Goal Programming provides results for the required application area of each technology, and the minimum emission reduction cost is found as 2.54 × 10 8 US dollar under low carbon scenario and 3.50 × 10 8 US dollar under ideal scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building sector accounts for a large percentage of the total national energy consumption in most of the countries, thus it is critical to formulate and implement appropriate energy saving policies in the building sector. This paper focuses on energy saving policies in the building sector by conducting a comparative study between Japan and China. The exiting Building Energy Saving (BES) policies, actual effectiveness of policy implementation and obstacles to the effective policy implementation are compared in sequence. Related policies are categorized into four groups: control and regulatory instruments; economic/market-based instruments; fiscal instruments and information and voluntary actions. Policy effect analysis identifies that BES policies have promoted building energy saving in both Japan and China. Obstacles comparison reveals that Japan and China shared many obstacles including high transaction costs and lack of applicable methodology. Compared with Japan, China is suffering more obstacles such as inefficient enforcement, insufficient levels of information and awareness and immature financial regulation system. Based on the previous findings, common suggestions for overcoming these obstacles of BES policies in Japan and China are presented, such as the accurate methods of baseline identification and emission accountings, innovative incentives, and more capacity building activities. Distinct suggestions for Japan and China are also added by considering their own situations so that both countries can further improve their BES policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of the construction industry in China, a large number of building materials have been consumed and resulted in huge pressure to the resources and environment. Based on localized construction material inventory data, China-specific characterization factors in LIME-3 (Life Cycle Impact Assessment based on Endpoint Modeling) was used to evaluate the environmental impact of human health. It is found that ceramic tiles and steel have high burden of human health impact, which are 2.98E-05 DALY and 1.72E-05 DALY, respectively, while gravel and natural sand have relatively low impact, which are 5.12E-08 DALY and 4.30E-09 DALY, respectively. Among the five midpoint impact categories (climate change, air pollution, photochemical oxidant formation, water consumption and human toxicity) that have effects on "human health", the contribution proportion of different building materials vary significantly. The environmental impact assessment results of different building materials on "human health" under LIME-3 and ReCiPe were compared. Results show that the burden of human health impact for ceramic tile under LIME-3 is nearly 67 times that under ReCiPe, which is mainly due to the different proportion of human toxicity in the endpoint of human health and the difference between the two methods in material characterization factors. For high impact burden materials such as steel and ceramic tiles, impact mitigation strategies have been proposed, such as applying electric arc furnace steel making to improve the productivity of steel and the recycling rate of scrap steel, and promoting new dry powder production processes to reduce alkanes and fluorides emission. This study considered an additional midpoint impact category (human toxicity) based on the LIME-3, directing the impact assessment against indicators located at the end of the impact pathway, such as human health. A database of characterization factors of human toxicity for dozens of substances or components has been constructed. Efforts were made in the direction of developing the application of the most widely used impact assessment methods. [Display omitted] • Ceramic tiles and steel have high burden of human health impact based on China-specific characterization factors in LIME-3. • Human health impact for ceramic tile under LIME-3 are much higher than the results under ReCiPe. • More midpoint impact categories such as human toxicity should be considered in LIME. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In order to meet the goals of GHG reduction and sustainability in industry development, strategies are needed that are reducing GHG emissions without compromising other economic, environmental and social priorities. In this paper, existing low carbon and sustainability requirements and evaluation methods are comparatively analyzed based on an in-depth literature review. Based on this analysis, multi-attributive assessment is selected as the methodological basis of our envisaged assessment framework; modified indicators and classified values are designed accordingly. The building sector in China is analyzed as a case study. Eleven main building energy saving technologies are assessed. The results show that under the sustainability criterion, the priority order of the assessed technologies is as follows: geothermal heat pump; solar thermal; solar PV; air conditioning energy saving; central heating system energy saving; building enclosure; lighting energy conservation; electric water heater energy saving, washing machine energy saving, refrigerator energy saving (these three have equal priority), and cooking appliance energy saving. The GHG and sustainability properties of technologies are discussed by comparing the indicator scores of the two aspects. The designed evaluation method can be used in regional cases if data resources are available; and for other sectors after indicator modification. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Energy security has become one of the growing concerns of many countries as well as the policy makers and decision-makers. This study aims to investigate the energy security performances of 30 Chinese provinces within the period of 2008–2017 by proposing a hybrid model that integrated Fuzzy Best-Worst Method, Data Envelopment Analysis and Assurance Regions. The dynamic trend of energy security performances of these provinces during this period has also been analyzed by using Malmquist Productivity Index. It was found that China's provincial energy security has shown great variance, and the eastern and southern coastal provinces have experienced better energy security performance than that of the western and northern regions. In addition, China still improved its energy security performance during this period even it has been the country with the fastest growth in world energy consumption in recent decades. Specifically, energy security performance in the middle and western provinces seems to have made more progress than the coasts. Technological progress and energy innovations can help to improve China's energy security by diversifying the energy supply sources/pathways and improving the energy efficiency, which is of great significance for the development of clean and sustainable energy. • An innovative DEA was developed for energy security quantitative assessment and enhancement. • Criteria for assessing energy security of China was developed. • Energy security performance of 30 Chinese provinces were investigated. • The trend of China's energy security in the period of 2008–2017 was obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boosted by impressive technological innovation and cost reductions, renewable energy in a growing number of countries is now primarily considered for its social and economic benefits. Among the renewable energy promotion actions at the global level, photovoltaic poverty alleviation (PVPA) program in China is very unique since the targeted users are villagers in poverty regions. Under this condition, it would be quite necessary to understand how are the PVPA program carrying out. In this study, three poverty villages are selected in the northwestern part of China to conduct the social impact analysis. An evaluation system including four categories and thirteen indicators was established. Site investigation and questionnaire interview was carried out to collect required information. Our findings reveal that the poor families in the three counties can increase their income by around 3000 RMB per year with the implementation of PVPA program. The final social impact indicator of Yanchi County, Dingbian County and Guazhou County are 2.61, 2.09 and 2.15 respectively. Villagers' living standards in the three counties are prominently improved because of the solar power supply. The factors that hinder the development of PVPA projects are the lack of investment funds, poor quality of solar panels, low public awareness, high abandon rate of photovoltaic, etc. Recommendations for improving the sustainable development of PVPA program based on the findings are also proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BIM (Building Information Modeling) is now a widely used tool for architecture, engineering and civil engineering. The application of BIM technology can help improve the efficiency of the construction industry and help evaluating the sustainability aspects of green buildings. However, our literature review finds that the contribution and obstacles of applying BIM for promoting green buildings have not been clearly analyzed. In order to better promote the development of BIM technology, this study explored the contribution of BIM to green building and the obstacles of BIM in the promotion of green building in the form of questionnaire survey of different stakeholders. On the basis of the literature research, we design a questionnaire consisting of 27 questions. In the next step, the questionnaires are distributed to 300 relevant stakeholders of BIM and green buildings. Interviewees mainly cover the building designers, construction company managers, and workers in green buildings certification company. Then SPSS and AMOS software were used to test the reliability and validity of the questionnaire to ensure the availability of the results. According to the questionnaire feedback, BIM technology has made important contributions in the design stage, construction stage and other aspects of green buildings. At the same time, we summarize the most urgent barriers from four aspects of technology, management, economy and social environment. Besides distinguishing barriers, we also rank the severity of barriers for different stakeholders, so as to propose more targeted countermeasures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Current and emerging urban mining technologies are identified. • LCA and LCCA results on construction and demolition waste management are reviewed. • Modeling of the potentials and costs of urban mining technologies is evaluated. • Opportunities to improve LCA and LCCA in C&DW decision-making are discussed. Knowledge gained from anthropogenic resource prospecting can shed light on the theoretical potential of secondary resources stored in anthropogenic systems. Among others, secondary resources accumulated in the built environment account for a big fraction of anthropogenic resources, indicating great potential for urban mining. However, realizing these opportunities and developing urban mining strategies will require a comprehensive understanding of the technical viability of urban mining technologies, and how their implementation will affect the technical, economic, and environmental performance of a construction and demolition waste (C&DW) management system. To address these important issues, this review summarizes (1) current and emerging technologies that can enable the transition from anthropogenic resource prospecting to anthropogenic resource mining, (2) Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) results to date on various C&DW management systems, (3) key parameters that govern the technical, economic, and environmental performance of a C&DW management system, and (4) opportunities for improving the methodology of LCAs and LCCAs for future C&DW management. We find that enhancing the utility of extant LCAs and LCCAs in guiding technology deployment and policy decisions can be achieved by considering key parameters governing the techno-economic and environmental performance of C&DW management. In addition, it is critical to adopt and upscale emerging technologies to increase the added value of materials or products recovered from C&DW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strew pellet production not only contribute to regional sustainable development and localized energy transition, but also help to mitigate global greenhouse gas emissions. With the development strew pellet products in China, it is critical to uncover the embodied emissions, land use and economic cost effectiveness from producing strew pellet. In order to reach such a target, two main categories of biomass pellet production including a large-scale centralized factory and a small-scale distributed workshop are investigated. Compared with raw coal production, the unit co-benefits in terms of per gigajoule of straw pellets from centralized factory are 1687 kg CO 2 , 8.65 g SO 2 , 3.21 g NOx, and 3.897 g PM 10 , and 0.33 m2 land use, and those for straw pellets from centralized factory are 1352 kg CO 2 , 8.46 g SO 2 , 3.12 g NOx, and 4.22 g PM 10 , and 0.33 m2 land use. Cost-effectiveness for the two straw pellets production system were also uncovered so that the relevant interested agents such as decision makers, business investors or environmental researchers can see the potential economic performance from developing such kind biomass plants. We conclude that environmental performance of the straw pellets whether from centralized factor or decentralized workshop have attractive alternatives to coal production. Image 108297 • LCA-based co-benefits approach was applied to investigate biomass pellet production. • The analysis framework includes energy consumption, equipment and infrastructure. • Emission factors and land demand for producing one-unit products are presented. • Environmental performance of straw pellets has attractive alternatives to raw coal. • Electricity is an important factor affecting the performance of pellets production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides a critical review of the current challenges faced in recycling glass packaging based on the principles of Circular Economy, and discusses opportunities to increase the waste glass recycling rate in Stockholm, Hong Kong Special Administration Region (SAR) and Shanghai. Several criteria were adopted from the definition of circular economy: i) whether there are any educational programs in place that teach and inform the populace and industries about loop-closing activities and their connectivity, ii) whether there are any profit-generating businesses supporting activities, such as recycling and reusing of salvaged waste glass, iii) whether there are any grassroots measures, such as waste glass sorting, that facilitate loop-closing profit-generating businesses, iv) whether there are policies in place to support loop-closing activities, and v) whether there are policies that cater to organizations (that are involved in loop-closing) at the micro-, meso- and macro-levels. All three cities approached their macro-level strategies differently. While Shanghai and Stockholm have specific circular economy-related legislation, Hong Kong uses its Waste Reduction Framework Plan to approve Promotion of Recycling and Proper Disposal (Product Container) Ordinance 2016. All three cities have policies that translate macro-level policies from the national or provincial level to the meso-level to influence industrial network and practices. For example, Shanghai uses its "Integration of Two Networks' concept in policymaking to integrate waste management and waste treatment systems in the local industry. Finally, the three cities collectively provide a rich array of micro-level circular economy strategies that involves different stakeholders. Although the three case cities are facing different challenged with different economic, cultural and institutional perspectives, lessons distilled from Stockholm, Hong Kong and Shanghai regarding circular economy-related education programs, loop-closing activities involving commercial sectors and grassroots civic sectors, and policies supporting loop-closing business and infrastructure provide other cities a rich source of information that may be relevant to others in the global effort to increase recycling rate of waste glass. [Display omitted] • Waste glass recycling strategies of three cities are assessed with CE concepts. • These cities are Stockholm, Hong Kong and Shanghai. • Commonalities include loop-closing practices and policies at three levels. • Each has Circular Economy educational programs supporting these policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the high growth urbanization and increasing new urban population, the huge demand for infrastructures and dwellings has become a great challenge for the sustainable development in Chinese cities. The building sector shares one fourth of total energy consumption in the country and plays an important role in reducing the energy consumption and the consequential green house gas (GHG) emissions. Some policies have been issued for promoting the low carbon sustainable development in China's buildings. However, existing barriers especially the investment barriers substantially prevent the low carbon technologies and service from being employed effectively. The carbon trading scheme of cap-and-trade is now widely accepted as one cost-effective way to deal with the climate change issue in the world, and it can be utilized for overcoming the barriers to carbon reduction activities in China's building sector. A new Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) energy performance based method is designed for reducing transaction costs in implementing CDM projects in China's buildings before 2020. And then a “step by step” approach is formed to establish the domestic and international carbon trading mechanism to effectively reduce GHG missions in China's building sector after 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In rapidly developing countries, such as China, considerable quantities of construction materials have been mobilized with the fast expansion of urban areas. The rural to urban land use transition, especially the upgrade and redevelopment of original rural areas, is a noted driver of material flows. This rural–urban land transition should be incorporated into material flow and stock analyses to provide a more accurate analysis. In this study, a dynamic material flow and stock model that integrates the historical rural–urban land transition was developed to explore the quantity of material stocks and demolition waste from residential buildings in Shanghai—the largest megacity in China from 1950 to 2100. Our results show that the material stocks from residential buildings in Shanghai increased 41-fold from 1950 to 2010, about 957 MMT (million metric tons), and is estimated to be saturated around 2040. Material stocks have experienced asynchronized growth in rural areas, central urban areas, and rural–urban land transition zones (RULT zones) in Shanghai. Until 2040, the RULT zones in Shanghai will be the largest material repository (62%), followed by central urban areas (20%), and rural areas (18%). The amount of demolition waste, which accounted for 10 MMT in 2010, is expected to peak at 29 MMT in 2060s. This suggests the need for a deliberate investment plan to increase waste treatment capacity. In addition, the dominant component of demolition waste will shift from brick to concrete after 2020s. The RULT zones will contribute two-thirds of demolition waste to Shanghai until the 2060s. If we do not consider the reality of the physical status of buildings in RULT zones, the demolition waste will be underestimated by the maximum of 57% in 2003 in urban areas. The key findings on the trend of construction and demolition (C&D) waste generation and the significant contribution of RULT zones can be used as a reference for the strategic planning of treatment facilities. This research framework can be also used to estimate the amount of C&D waste in other fast-developing cities in China and other countries. UR buildings = urban residential buildings; RR buildings = rural residential buildings. RULT zones = rural–urban land transition zones. Image 1 • A dynamic material flows and stocks model by integrating rural–urban land transition was applied in Shanghai, China. • Material stocks & demolition waste in rural areas, RULT zones, and central urban areas were considered, respectively. • Two-thirds of demolition waste will generate from rural–urban land transition zones by 2060s. • Dominant component of demolition waste will shift from brick to concrete. • Prolonging the buildings' lifetime would be a priority option for waste reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]