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Background: According to results of the REMATCH trial, left ventricular assist device therapy in patients with severe heart failure has resulted in a 48% reduction in mortality. A decision tool will be necessary to aid in the selection of patients for destination left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) as the technology progresses for implantation in ambulatory Stage D heart failure patients. The purpose of this analysis was to determine whether the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) can be used to risk-stratify heart failure patients for potential LVAD therapy. Methods: The SHFM was applied to REMATCH patients with the prospective addition of inotropic agents and intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) ± ventilator. Results: The SHFM was highly predictive of survival (p = 0.0004). One-year SHFM-predicted survival was similar to actual survival for both the REMATCH medical (30% vs 28%) and LVAD (49% vs 52%) groups. The estimated 1-year survival with medical therapy for patients in REMATCH was 30 ± 21%, but with a range of 0% to 74%. The 1- and 2-year estimated survival was ≤50% for 81% and 98% of patients, respectively. There was no evidence that the benefit of the LVAD varied in the lower vs higher risk patients. Conclusions: The SHFM can be used to risk-stratify end-stage heart failure patients, provided known markers of increased risk are included such inotrope use and IABP ± ventilator support. The SHFM may facilitate identification of high-risk patients to evaluate for potential LVAD implantation by providing an estimate of 1-year survival with medical therapy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Renal dysfunction (RD) is a strong predictor of mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). However, its impact on the discrimination of the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) is poorly understood. Methods: Serum creatinine (SCr) and creatinine clearance (CrCl) were reviewed for patients from four of the six cohorts originally used to derive and validate the SHFM. Patients were followed for death. The independent prediction of adding SCr or CrCl to the SHFM was assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards and the incremental value for prediction by changes in the ROC curves for 1- and 2-year event prediction. Results: Among 7,146 patients (mean age 63 ± 11 years), 1,511 deaths occurred during a mean follow-up of 2.04 years. SCr and CrCl had a modest positive correlation with SHFM (r = 0.30, p = 0.002). In combination with SHFM, SCr (hazard ratio [HR] per mg/dl 1.25, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.38, p < 0.0001) and CrCl (HR per 10 ml/min 0.95, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.97, p < 0.0001) were both multivariable predictors of events. When stratified by absolute risk based on the SHFM, SCr or CrCl provided more additional information in lower risk patients and less or no additional information in higher risk patients. The addition of SCr and the SHFM*SCr, or CrCl and the SHFM*CrCl interaction to the SHFM was associated with almost no change in the 1- and 2-year area under ROC curves for the SHFM score. Conclusions: Compared with the SHFM alone, RD is independently predictive of mortality only in lower risk patients. Overall discrimination is only minimally improved with addition of SCr or CrCl to the SHFM. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Management of heart failure (HF) remains complex with low 5-year survival. The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) is a recently described risk score derived predominantly from clinical trial populations that may enable the prediction of survival in patients with HF. This study sought to validate the SHFM in an independent, nonclinical trial-based HF population. Patients (n = 4,077) from the hospital-based Intermountain Heart Collaborative Study registry with a diagnosis of HF were evaluated using prospectively collected data (mean ± SD follow-up 4.4 ± 3.1 years). The SHFM was used to calculate a risk score for each patient. Receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve provided SHFM predictive ability for a composite end point of survival free from death, transplantation, or left ventricular assist device implantation. Addition of creatinine, serum urea nitrogen, diabetes status, and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) to the SHFM was also evaluated. Patient age averaged 67 ± 13 years and 61% were men. Area under the curves were 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.66 to 0.70), 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.66 to 0.69), 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.065 to 0.68), and 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.67) for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year survivals, respectively. Area under the curves were slightly attenuated in patients >75 years of age (n = 1,339), implantable cardioverter-defibrillator recipients (n = 693), and patients with an ejection fraction >40% (n = 1,634). BNP added significantly to the model (area under the curve +0.06). BNP was found to add additional predictive ability at 1 year (area under the curve change +0.05) and nominally at 5 years (area under the curve change +0.02). In conclusion, the SHFM predicts survival in patients with HF in a hospital-based population, with areas under the curve similar to those from data on which models were initially fit. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]