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Highlights • We developed a dynamic mass balance model for organic carbon in lake ecosystems. • Allochthonous loads dominated in four of five lakes. • The ratio of respiration to burial increased as water temperatures increased during summer. • Organic carbon fates were mediated by carbon source (allochthonous vs. autochthonous). • Future work should address dissolved organic carbon in tributaries and groundwater, particulate organic carbon, and burial. Abstract Lakes are active processors of organic carbon (OC) and play important roles in landscape and global carbon cycling. Allochthonous OC loads from the landscape, along with autochthonous OC loads from primary production, are mineralized in lakes, buried in lake sediments, and exported via surface or groundwater outflows. Although these processes provide a basis for a conceptual understanding of lake OC budgets, few studies have integrated these fluxes under a dynamic modeling framework to examine their interactions and relative magnitudes. We developed a simple, dynamic mass balance model for OC, and applied the model to a set of five lakes. We examined the relative magnitudes of OC fluxes and found that long-term (>10 year) lake OC dynamics were predominantly driven by allochthonous loads in four of the five lakes, underscoring the importance of terrestrially-derived OC in northern lake ecosystems. Our model highlighted seasonal patterns in lake OC budgets, with increasing water temperatures and lake productivity throughout the growing season corresponding to a transition from burial- to respiration-dominated OC fates. Ratios of respiration to burial, however, were also mediated by the source (autochthonous vs. allochthonous) of total OC loads. Autochthonous OC is more readily respired and may therefore proportionally reduce burial under a warming climate, but allochthonous OC may increase burial due to changes in precipitation. The ratios of autochthonous to allochthonous inputs and respiration to burial demonstrate the importance of dynamic models for examining both the seasonal and inter-annual roles of lakes in landscape and global carbon cycling, particularly in a global change context. Finally, we highlighted critical data needs, which include surface water DOC observations in paired tributary and lake systems, measurements of OC burial rates, groundwater input volume and DOC, and budgets of particulate OC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has emerged as a major threat to biodiversity, but there have been few assessments of variability in sensitivity to climate across species’ ranges. We examined the sensitivity of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ), a common, commercially important tree species found throughout the western United States, to climate variability using tree rings mostly from the International Tree Ring Data Bank (161 chronologies) and multiple climate products for 1930–1979. We compared interannual tree ring variation to water-year precipitation (wy ppt), May-July vapor pressure deficit (MJJ VPD), April-July precipitation (AMJJ ppt) and average winter (Dec-Feb) minimum temperature (winter tmn). We mapped growth-climate correlations for each variable and applied hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis to identify five main groups of climate sensitivities, one of which contained mostly climate-insensitive populations. Ponderosa pine growth was positively correlated with wy ppt and AMJJ ppt and negatively correlated with MJJ VPD throughout its range, but sensitivities were greater in the Southern Rockies and Northern Great Plains than in Pacific and Southwestern populations. Sensitivities to winter tmn were weaker than responses to other climate variables, but Pacific and interior populations mostly demonstrated positive and negative responses, respectively. In summary, our analyses revealed the general pattern that interior populations of ponderosa pine were more climate-sensitive than Pacific populations, but there is considerable heterogeneity in sensitivity throughout the species’ range. Sensitivities to climate variables were related to position along corresponding climate gradients for all variables except MJJ VPD, but the unevenness of these relationships suggests a role of local adaptation. Our results illustrate the variation in climate response for a uniquely wide-ranging species and suggest that “leading” and “trailing” range edge concepts can oversimplify patterns of species exposure to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Satellite-based remote monitoring programs of regional lake water quality largely have relied on Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) owing to its long image archive, moderate spatial resolution (30m), and wide sensitivity in the visible portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, despite some notable limitations such as temporal resolution (i.e., 16days), data pre-processing requirements to improve data quality, and aging satellites. Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on Aqua/Terra platforms compensate for these shortcomings, although at the expense of spatial resolution. We developed and evaluated a remote monitoring protocol for water clarity of large lakes using MODIS 500m data and compared MODIS utility to Landsat-based methods. MODIS images captured during May–September 2001, 2004 and 2010 were analyzed with linear regression to identify the relationship between lake water clarity and satellite-measured surface reflectance. Correlations were strong (R²=0.72–0.94) throughout the study period; however, they were the most consistent in August, reflecting seasonally unstable lake conditions and inter-annual differences in algal productivity during the other months. The utility of MODIS data in remote water quality estimation lies in intra-annual monitoring of lake water clarity in inaccessible, large lakes, whereas Landsat is more appropriate for inter-annual, regional trend analyses of lakes ≥8ha. Model accuracy is improved when ancillary variables are included to reflect seasonal lake dynamics and weather patterns that influence lake clarity. The identification of landscape-scale drivers of regional water quality is a useful way to supplement satellite-based remote monitoring programs relying on spectral data alone. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Water clarity is a reliable indicator of lake productivity and an ideal metric of regional water quality. Clarity is an indicator of other water quality variables including chlorophyll-a, total phosphorus and trophic status; however, unlike these metrics, clarity can be accurately and efficiently estimated remotely on a regional scale. Remote sensing is useful in regions containing a large number of lakes that are cost prohibitive to monitor regularly using traditional field methods. Field-assessed lakes generally are easily accessible and may represent a spatially irregular, non-random sample of a region. We developed a remote monitoring program for Maine lakes >8ha (1511 lakes) to supplement existing field monitoring programs. We combined Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) brightness values for TM bands 1 (blue) and 3 (red) to estimate water clarity (secchi disk depth) during 1990–2010. Although similar procedures have been applied to Minnesota and Wisconsin lakes, neither state incorporates physical lake variables or watershed characteristics that potentially affect clarity into their models. Average lake depth consistently improved model fitness, and the proportion of wetland area in lake watersheds also explained variability in clarity in some cases. Nine regression models predicted water clarity (R2 =0.69–0.90) during 1990–2010, with separate models for eastern (TM path 11; four models) and western Maine (TM path 12; five models that captured differences in topography and landscape disturbance. Average absolute difference between model-estimated and observed secchi depth ranged 0.65–1.03m. Eutrophic and mesotrophic lakes consistently were estimated more accurately than oligotrophic lakes. Our results show that TM bands 1 and 3 can be used to estimate regional lake water clarity outside the Great Lakes Region and that the accuracy of estimates is improved with additional model variables that reflect physical lake characteristics and watershed conditions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights: [•] Understanding of microclimates may revolutionize climate change biology. [•] Microrefugia will be rare under future climate change. [•] Conservation strategies should focus on managing holdouts and stepping stones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]