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Abstract: The unrestrained shrinkage along with restrained cracking tendency of concrete mixtures typically used by the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) were assessed to establish an appropriate limit on drying shrinkage for use in a performance specification. Five existing shrinkage prediction models were assessed to determine the accuracy and precision of each model as it pertains to the VDOT mixtures used in this study. The five models assessed were the ACI 209 Code Model, Bazant B3 Model, CEB90 Code Model, Gardner/Lockman Model, and the Sakata Model. The Gardner/Lockman Model performed best for the supplemental cementitious material (SCM) mixtures. Based on a comparison of the unrestrained drying shrinkage and restrained cracking tendency, it was determined that the potential for cracking could be minimized by limiting the unrestrained shrinkage of the concrete mixtures. The recommended percentage length change specification limits for the supplemental cementitious material mixtures are 0.0400 at 28 days and 0.0500 at 90 days. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]