Search

Abstract The variations in land surface heat fluxes affect the ecological environment, hydrological processes and the stability of surface engineering structures in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Based on observation data from a meteorological station in the Tanggula site in 2005, which is located in a permafrost region on the QTP, the performances of seventeen selected the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were evaluated. The results showed that these simulations did not perform well using sensible heat flux, downward shortwave radiation or upward shortwave radiation, and differences exist among the models. The average multimodel ensemble results were similar to the observed land surface heat fluxes. The results revealed that the monthly average latent heat flux and the net radiation were small in December and January and large in May, June and July. The fluctuation in the soil heat flux was well correlated with the net radiation, and the sensible heat flux was negative in January and December in northwest of the Plateau. The latent heat flux was the strongest over the southeastern QTP from May to August, and it decreased over the northwestern QTP. In contrast, the sensible heat flux was the weakest over the southeastern QTP, and it gradually increased and became dominant over the northwestern QTP. The results also indicated that there was a good correlation between the surface heating field intensity and the net radiation, with a correlation coefficient of 0.99; this indicates stronger heating over the eastern QTP than over the western QTP and stronger heating over the southern QTP than over the northern QTP. Furthermore, the Bowen ratio was higher during the freezing and thawing stages than that during the completely thawed stage. This ratio was larger over the central and northeastern QTP and smaller along the northwest edge of the QTP, which was lower (range from −0.81 to 4.86) due to the overestimation of precipitation, a smaller difference between the simulated monthly average surface temperature and the observed air temperature, and a decrease in wind speed when using the CMIP5 models in the permafrost region of the QTP. This research provides a foundation for understanding land surface heat flux characteristics in the permafrost regions on the QTP under climate change. Highlights • Evaluate the performance of the CMIP5 model in the permafrost regions of the QTP. • Analyze variations in the spatial distribution of land surface heat flux values on the QTP. • Demonstrate the effect of the freezing and thawing process on land surface heat fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil thermodynamic properties are critical for determining the soil freezing and thawing depths of active layers which is highly important for the hydrology and energy balances of permafrost regions. Here, three soil thermal conductivity parameterizations were evaluated against detailed field measurements at two field sites in the permafrost region of Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau (QXP). The results revealed that the comprehensive parameterization based on different schemes for calculating soil thermal conductivity is relatively close to the measured values in unfrozen soil, and Johansen's parameterization is the best in the frozen soil. Then, we first combined three thermal conductivity parameterizations with a freeze-thaw algorithm to simulate freezing and thawing depths of multi-layered soil. The analysis showed that the average percentage difference between the observed and calculated soil thawing depth values for the Johansen's and comprehensive parameterization was 10.42% and 8.49% at Tanggula (TGL) and Xidatan (XDT), receptively. It indicated that the comprehensive parameterization with freeze-thaw algorithm simulated the soil thawing depth more similarly to the observed data for multi-layered soil. These findings can also be incorporated into other land surface, hydrological or ecosystem models to simulate the freeze-thaw cycles in permafrost regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A MODIS-Land-surface-temperature-integrated InSAR approach is developed. • Seasonal deformation up to 80 mm and linear subsidence up to 20 mm/year are observed. • The geographical detector is used to determine the controls on the ground deformation. • Slope angle has significant impacts on the amplitude of seasonal deformation. • The regions with high ice content and warm permafrost experience stronger ice loss. Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) undergoes significant thawing and degradation, which affects the hydrological processes, ecosystems and infrastructure stability. The ground deformation, a key indicator of permafrost degradation, can be quantified via geodetic observations, especially using multi-temporal InSAR techniques. The previous InSAR studies, however, either rely on data-driven models or Stefan-equation-based models, which are both lacking of consideration of the spatial-temporal variations of freeze-thaw processes. Furthermore, the magnitudes and patterns of the permafrost-related ground deformation over large scales (e.g., 1 × 105 km2 or larger) is still insufficiently quantified or poorly understood. In this study, to account for the spatial heterogeneity of freeze-thaw processes, we develop a permafrost-tailored InSAR approach by incorporating a MODIS-land-surface-temperature-integrated ground deformation model to reconstruct the seasonal and long-term deformation. Utilizing the approach to Sentinel-1 SAR images on the vast regions of about 140,000 km2 of the central QTP during 2014–2019, we observe widespread seasonal deformation up to about 80 mm with a mean value of about 10 mm and linear subsidence up to 20 mm/year. We apply the geographical detector to determine the controlling factors on the permafrost-related deformation. We find that the slope angle is the primary controller on the seasonal deformation: strong magnitudes and variations of seasonal deformation are most pronounced in flat or gentle-slope regions. The aspect angle, vegetation and soil bulk density exhibit a certain correlation with seasonal deformation as well. Meanwhile, we find that a linear subsidence is higher in the regions with high ground ice content and warm permafrost. It indicates that warm and ice-rich permafrost regions are more vulnerable to extensive long-term subsidence. We also observe that the cold permafrost regions experience lower linear subsidence even with high ground ice content, which indicate ice loss is limited. Thus, we infer that under continuously warming, the transition from cold permafrost to warm permafrost may lead to more extensive ground ice melting. Moreover, the strong subsidence/uplift signals surrounding some lakes suggesting that the change of local hydrological conditions may induce localized permafrost degradation/aggradation. Our study demonstrates the capability of the permafrost-tailored InSAR approach to quantify the permafrost freeze-thaw dynamics as well as their spatial-temporal patterns over large scales in vast permafrost areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Analysis the hysteresis characteristic of ground temperature with depth increasing. • Develop models to obtain ground temperatures from air temperature. • Compare the models used to estimate ground temperature at different depths. • Evaluate the applicability of these models in the permafrost regions on the QTP. Air and ground temperatures are important factors contributing to land and atmosphere processes as well as ecosystem dynamics. This paper presents a simple model for simulating ground temperature from air temperature in the permafrost regions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). The model takes hysteresis between daily air temperature and ground temperature into consideration as well as exponential and linear functions for annual average ground temperatures at different depths. Results indicate an evident hysteresis in ground temperature with increasing depth. By taking hysteresis into account, the developed model provides improved daily ground temperature estimates compared to those obtain from the original linear regression, at Xidatan (site QT09) and Kunlun Pass (site CN06) in the permafrost regions on the QTP, with an average root mean square error (RMSE), normalized standard error (NSEE), and mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.12 °C, 0.41, and 0.84 °C for QT09, and 1.41 °C, 0.29 and 1.10 °C for CN06, respectively, at all depths. The results indicate that the model that takes hysteresis into account provides monthly ground temperatures that are closest to field observations, with an average RMSE, NSEE, and MAE of 0.63 °C, 0.24, and 0.50 °C, respectively, at QT09 site and 0.92 °C, 0.18 and 0.63 °C, respectively, at CN06 site. In addition, the simulation accuracy of the average annual ground temperature is significantly improved by using the combined exponential and linear model, and this is particularly relevant when drilling boreholes at great depths in permafrost regions. Therefore, these models provide a useful and simple method for simulating ground temperature and modeling permafrost changes under global warming conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]