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• First study to comprehensively address climate strategies for the O&G upstream sector in Brazil. • Decarbonization scenarios are simulated using a national Integrated Assessment Model (IAM). • O&G production can be sustained without compromising national decarbonization goals, but CO 2 and CH 4 emissions reductions must exceed simulated efforts to match industry leaders. • Ample potential to offset emissions through reforestation (∼ 500MtCO 2 /2050) and BECCS (∼ 400MtCO 2 /2050), presenting appealing business prospects for the industry. • CCS can play a vital role in advancing the decarbonization goals of both the sector and the country. Future projections of oil and gas demand suggest that some production will remain necessary. Although attention often focuses on CO 2 emissions from the combustion of their products, oil and gas production is also a relevant global emission source of both CO 2 and CH 4. Hence, understanding the carbon performance of upstream activities in producing nations is vital for distinguishing producers in a climate-pressured global market. This work explores climate strategies for the oil and gas upstream sector, using Brazil as a case study. The sector´s emissions profile is evaluated under distinct national climate scenarios. The analysis employs BLUES, a national Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), to access production volumes, mitigation measures applicable to the sector, and carbon dioxide removal potentials within the country to eventually offset the sector's remaining emissions. Results indicate sustained oil and gas production over the evaluated horizon (2020–2050) without compromising national climate goals, yet the sector's future emissions trajectory does not align with decarbonization targets pursued by more ambitious oil-producing nations and industry players. Despite sectoral mitigation measures indicated by the model, considerable emissions remain until 2050. Conversely, the country offers ample offsetting opportunities with potential synergies for the sector, especially through BECCS. Furthermore, the acceptability of offsets is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are cornerstone tools in guiding decarbonization policies. However, the petrochemical sector, which is crucial to the future of oil and gas due to its non-energy fossil feedstock demands, has been overlooked in IAMs. This study aims to evaluate the implications of this under-representation on decarbonization strategies. We assessed the Illustrative Mitigation Pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Sixth Assessment Report. Our analysis indicates that, without stringent material policies, the feedstock demand can reach unattainable levels from 2050 onwards. This is evidenced by the required disruptive yields of primary oil in feedstocks, which exceed 80 % in some cases. The findings highlight the necessity for improved modelling of the petrochemical sector within IAMs. • The petrochemical sector plays a pivotal role in the future of oil and gas supply. • Integrated Assessment Models lack a good representation of the petrochemical sector. • Future fossil demand is deeply affected by this sector in decarbonization pathways. • IMPs from the IPCC WGIII AR6 cannot fully meet necessary petrochemicals demands. • Material policies should be considered by decarbonization scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study aims to identify the potential for the deployment of diesel biofuel production based on forestry residues conversion through Fischer-Tropsch synthesis in Brazil. It develops a technical and economic analysis to estimate in what extension (georeferenced analysis) and at what costs (process analysis) can this biomass-based diesel contribute to the Brazilian diesel supply, and to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Findings indicate the annual techno-economic potential of 80.3 PJ (considering the use of eucalyptus and pine residues), mostly concentrated in the South, Midwest and Southeast regions of the country. Overall, 21 production hotspots were identified, allowing the deployment of 27 facilities across the country. A clear advantage of this fuel production route is the fact that the carbon capture and storage can be intrinsic to the process, leading to negative CO 2 emissions of the fuel production chain. Total mitigation potential is nearly 25 MtCO 2 yearly. Furthermore, while still not cost-competitive without ambitious climate and energy policies in place, the forestry residue-based diesel can contribute to the reduction of the country's dependency on imports, resulting in positive impacts on the Brazilian trade balance. Highlights • Brazil stands in a privileged position in terms of forestry residues availability. • Findings indicate bioenergy potentials of 987 and 297 PJ for eucalyptus and pine. • CO 2 capture is intrinsic to the process, due to FT synthesis specifications. • FT liquid biofuels are not yet competitive when compared to fossil-derived fuels. • Carbon prices should be 84–94 US$/tCO 2 for biomass-based fuels to reach break-even. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different long-term mitigation scenarios indicate carbon capture and storage associated with biomass (BECCS) might play a significant role in climate-change mitigation efforts, especially when it comes to long-term temperature stabilization. The ethanol fermentation process is considered as an early opportunity for BECCS deployment due to its low capture costs. Being a major ethanol producer, Brazil stands in a privileged position for the development of this technological option. However, previous scientific studies indicate several challenges for the deployment of a CO 2 transportation network in the country, mostly as a result of the associated seasonality of the sugarcane industry and consequent idleness observed in the carbon transportation infrastructure. To address those issues, this study developed and applied a methodology to design an optimum carbon network considering an alternative concept: the incorporation of new CO 2 emission sources aiming at guaranteeing adequate operational flows throughout the year, minimizing idleness and reducing transportation costs. Findings indicate that the incorporation of new CO 2 emission sources reduces transportation costs. The inclusion of CO 2 from both the cogeneration process and fossil sources results in an average levelized cost of transportation of 26 US$/tCO 2 (54% lower than transportation costs in the baseline case). However, this reduction in transportation costs does not compensate for the increase in capture costs, resulting in higher levelized abatement costs for the whole system. Indeed, cases including cogeneration have reached a levelized abatement cost of approximately 125 US$/tCO 2 (84% higher than in the baseline case). Nevertheless, by reducing transportation costs the strategy adopted in this study could facilitate the development of a carbon transportation network. Additionally, the integration of fossil-derived CO 2 has proved beneficial to the system, allowing improvements in flow regularity and reducing idleness problems related to the seasonality of biogenic sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article estimates carbon capture potentials and costs of energy and industrial facilities in Brazil. These estimates are important for an emerging economy whose energy- and process-related CO 2 emissions are expected to grow over time. The Brazilian case is emblematic due to the prospects for carbon capture in biomass processing facilities, such as ethanol distilleries with nearby petroleum sedimentary basins (enhanced oil recovery – EOR – potential through CO 2 injection), and for increasing petroleum production and the potential role for carbon capture in industrial plants. Findings show that capture costs are lower for petroleum platforms and hydrogen generation units in oil refineries or ammonia plants. In platforms, CO 2 capture should be performed for economic reasons, regardless of environmental concerns. Capture in ethanol distilleries may also occur at reduced costs and become viable, given the additional revenue associated the use of the captured CO 2 for EOR in mature oil fields in the country. For the other evaluated sectors, carbon capture is also available but at costs exceeding 30 US$/tCO 2 and, in some cases, reaching approximately 100 US$/tCO 2 . Potentials, on the other hand, can get up to 28 MtCO 2 /year captured in the oil and gas sector and 47 MtCO 2 /year in the cement sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] This work defines the minimum work of separation (MWS) for a capture process. [•] Findings of the analysis indicated a MWS of 0.158GJ/t for post-combustion. [•] A review of commercially available processes based on chemical absorption was made. [•] A review of learning models was conducted, with the addition on a novel model. [•] A learning curve for post-combustion carbon capture was successfully designed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study assesses the feasibility of investing in capture ready (CR) coal-based power plants under uncertainty. It defines eighteen cases according to three routes for carbon capture (post, pre and oxy-combustion) and different levels of readiness. Due to the uncertain nature of the development of capture plants, this study applies a probabilistic analysis. Findings for the more likely scenario (median value) indicated that severe pre-investments in CR plants are the best choice only when the implementation of the capture occurs in the short term. In the long term, the investment decision favored the power plants not fully ready. Interestingly, under a less likely but possible scenario (the inferior limit of the probabilistic analysis) IGCC-Ready plants become the best option in the short term, and then oxy-combustion ready plants stand out. Hence, some policies such as those based on financing lowering the discount rate perceived by investors, and those based on fund to research and development, might create an investment environment favorable to CR plants. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Current national policies are not sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement goals. • Collective increase in climate action is needed to stabilize warming at safe levels. • Good practice policies can bridge the emissions gap to a below 2 °C world. • These policies can create a bridge trajectory in key major-emitting countries. One key aspect of the Paris Agreement is the goal to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C by the end of the century. To achieve the Paris Agreement goals, countries need to submit, and periodically update, their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Recent studies show that NDCs and currently implemented national policies are not sufficient to cover the ambition level of the temperature limit agreed upon in the Paris Agreement, meaning that we need to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe. This paper explores the generalization of previously adopted good practice policies (GPPs) to bridge the emissions gap between current policies, NDCs ambitions and a well below 2 °C world, facilitating the creation of a bridge trajectory in key major-emitting countries. These GPPs are implemented in eleven well-established national Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Union (EU), India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States, that provide least-cost, low-carbon scenarios up to 2050. Results show that GPPs can play an important role in each region, with energy supply policies appearing as one of the biggest contributors to the reduction of carbon emissions. However, GPPs by themselves are not enough to close the emission gap, and as such more will be needed in these economies to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Biomass-fired calcium looping is a promising post-combustion CO2 capture technology. • The technology has the potential to outperform amine-based chemical absorption. • Bio-CaL is more efficient in water use and allows for more flexibility in operation. • Sugarcane bagasse demonstrates advantages over other biomasses for such systems. • Continued R&D and system scale-up is recommended. Biomass energy conversion with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can lead to the net removal of CO 2 from the atmosphere. Calcium looping (CaL) is a promising carbon capture process for existing or greenfield capture-ready biomass-fired plants. This paper investigates the technical and economic performance of BECCS using CaL systems as a retrofit to Brazilian cogeneration plants fuelled with sugarcane bagasse. Bagasse-fired cogeneration plants integrated with CaL were compared with their correspondent base plant without CO 2 capture and with chemical absorption using Cansolv solvent, the current benchmark for post-combustion CO 2 capture. Key parameters such as CO 2 removal potential, water use, added plant footprint, and levelized energy cost (LCOE) were analyzed. Although the Bio-CaL alternative is not cost-effective compared to Cansolv for a first of a kind plant, the assessed system presents competitive advantages in operational flexibility, energy efficiency, and electricity surplus in comparison with the chemical absorption route. For future plants, economic results are promising and can match those of more conventional technologies. Therefore, investments in pilot size biomass-fired CaL units should be stimulated to promote learning and allow the implementation of large-scale plants that would likely operate with similar costs but greater flexibility and thermal efficiency than the current more mature CO 2 capture technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heavy industry is often regarded as hard-to-abate due to its importance to infrastructure build-up and capital stock, its reliance on high-temperature heat requirements, and the critical role it plays in global supply chains and security. These complexities have often been invoked to justify the persistence of residual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cement, steel, and chemicals production by the year of net-zero, which, in contrast, suggest the need for global-scale roll-out of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. In this study, we use the global integrated assessment model (IAM) COFFEE with a detailed representation of industrial processes to understand the role of the industrial sector in climate change mitigation scenarios with different temperature ambitions. Our findings reveal a nuanced picture. While the industrial sector presents residual emissions of 1300–7600 MtCO 2 yr−1 in well-below 2 °C scenarios by 2050, it also emerges as a key mitigation asset in specific subsectors (e.g. chemicals and steel) and regions (e.g. AUS, BRA, CAN CAM, SAM), depending on the level of climate ambition pursued and the availability of biomass and carbon capture scale-up. Thus, the sector's role in climate change mitigation is context-dependent, opening pathways for strategic planning and technological and regional targeted actions. • Scenarios for the industrial sector under different climate ambitions were developed with a global IAM. • Supply-side emissions pathways in the cement, steel, and chemical subsectors were assessed. • Industrial residual CO 2 emissions reach 1.3–7.6 GtCO 2 yr 1 in well-below 2 °C scenarios by 2050. • Under a 1.5 °C scenario, the chemical subsector becomes net negative, but extensively reliant on biomass and CCS. • Industry is hard-to-abate, but subsector and regional analysis reveal carbon removal potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to quantify the renewable-carbon content in the products produced by co-processing vacuum gas oil with up to 20 wt% bio-oil in the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) process. The renewable-carbon content of 40 product samples collected at a demonstration-scale FCC unit was quantified by 14C isotopic analysis. The renewable-carbon mass balance closure ranged between 90% and 110%. The biogenic-carbon content of the liquid effluent increased linearly as a function of the amount of bio-oil fed to the FCC. Most of the biogenic carbon was recovered as coke. Moreover, the renewable-carbon recovery in the liquid effluent remained at approximately 30 wt%, independent of the percentage of bio-oil fed to the FCC process. The FCC process is generally considered the largest single source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a petroleum refinery. These results will enable the life-cycle assessment from the co-processing of bio-oil in an FCC. The renewable carbon present in the coke deposited on the FCC catalyst, which is later burned during catalyst regeneration in the FCC, would contribute to GHG emission abatement. Additionally, the use of bio-oil as an FCC feed could contribute to reducing the carbon intensity of gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil. [Display omitted] • Bio-oils were produced from wood in the fast pyrolysis process. • Bio-oils and gasoil were co-processed in fluid catalytic cracking (200 kg/h). • Biogenic carbon content in products were determined using 14C isotopic analysis. • Most of the renewable carbon has been recovered as coke. • Recovery of bio-oil in the liquid effluent remained at approximately 30 wt%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper performs a multi-model comparison to assess strategies for adaptation to climate change impacts in hydropower generation in Brazil under two Representative Concentration Pathways. The approach used allows for evaluating the interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under low and high impact scenarios through 2050. Climate change impact projections of sixteen General Circulation Models indicate that a global high emissions trajectory scenario would likely yield more severe impacts on hydropower generation than a mitigation scenario. Adaptation modeling suggests that climate change impacts can be compensated by a wide range of alternatives, whose optimality will depend on the level of mitigation effort pursued. Our results show that climate change impacts would lead to even higher emissions in the absence of climate change mitigation policies. On the other hand, mitigation strategies to pursue lower emissions are maintained under climate change impacts, meaning that mitigation strategies are robust when faced with adaptation challenges. Mitigation efforts could yield a more diverse and less carbon intensive mix of technological options for adaptation. When analyzing investment costs to adapt to climate change impacts, in some cases mitigation can lead to a lower total investment level. Highlights • Climate change impacts on hydropower are assessed for sixteen models and two scenarios. • Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation are analyzed. • Adaptation/mitigation strategies from six different energy models are compared. • Adaptation and mitigation investment costs are assessed and compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep decarbonization scenarios indicate a decline in fossil oil usage in the coming decades, meaning that oil refineries must adapt. This work evaluates the refining sector in deep decarbonization pathways using Brazil as a case study. BLUES – a national integrated assessment model – is employed to investigate the evolution of the sector in mitigation scenarios until 2050. The production of feedstocks for the petrochemical industry, of fuels for the aviation and maritime sectors, and biomass co-processing are analyzed. These strategies may bring resilience to the sector. The potential for avoiding emissions in refineries' operations is also explored. Findings show that the refining sector operates at 70% and 74% of its nameplate capacity in decarbonization scenarios. These results are used as the starting point for a detailed analysis of Brazilian refineries. Results show that the employment of refineries' assets for purposes aligned with decarbonization targets, along with emissions mitigation in the sector, reduces risks of carbon lock-in and of asset stranding. To our knowledge, this is the first study that evaluates emissions mitigation in the refining sector and also uses an integrated assessment model to investigate oil refining repurposing and co-processing options in the context of decarbonization. • The refining sector is evaluated using an integrated assessment model for Brazil. • A comparison is made between business- as -usual and decarbonization scenarios. • Opportunities for refineries' assets and mitigation measures are explored. • Opportunities for refineries depend on their location and type of processing units. • Risks of carbon lock-in and asset stranding can be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phasing-out fossil fuels is key to limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Recent studies indicated huge amounts of unextracted oil resources in deep mitigation scenarios. However, crude oil heterogeneity and related refining yields have been overlooked. The same holds for the impact of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and sequestration technologies on stranded oil resources, and the pace of crude oil extraction in different world regions in scenarios with and without average global surface temperature overshoot for the 2020–2100 period. This study uses a global Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to assess the impact of considering such complexities when running full-century and peak budget carbon scenarios. When "turning off" the detailed oil quality module of this IAM, an overproduction of crude oil with a smaller throughput of oil refineries was found, as the model simplified the oil supply-demand balance. "Turning on" the detailed oil module and simulating the energy-land nexus showed that CDR allowed the remaining use of oil in hard-to-abate sectors, while refineries were better adjusted to oil supply. African and Latin American regions produced more oil before 2050 in the full-century-budget scenario than in the peak budget scenario. This has implications for just transition, as these regions usually prefer anticipating rents. • Phasing-out fossil fuels and CDR options are key to limiting global warming. • Crude oil quality matters to estimate stranded oil resources. • Climate ambitions and negative emissions affect just transition. • The distribution of unextracted oil resources differs regionally. • Temperature overshoot allows some developing regions to anticipate oil revenues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has compromised to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the mid- and long-terms. Besides energy efficiency measures, the development of potentially carbon neutral fuels in the upcoming years is key to achieve the sector's goals. Brazil is a major commodity exporter whose unfavored geographical position increases the carbon intensity of its maritime transportation. In this context, this study presents a multicriteria methodology to compare possible alternative fuels for the Brazilian maritime trade. To this end, 14 fuel options are evaluated according to technical, economic, and environmental criteria to which different weights are assigned. The ranking of results indicates that drop-in fuels such as Fischer-Tropsch diesel, alcohol-based diesel, straight and hydrotreated vegetable oils and e-diesel stand out as promising mid-term alternatives. Biomass-based liquefied natural gas (Bio-LNG) performance in the evaluation is hampered mostly by the risk of methane slip. Green hydrogen and green ammonia, on the other hand, seem to be less competitive alternatives in the mid-term horizon for Brazil but may become alternatives for cabotage transport in the long-term. • Distilled biofuels seem to be the most promising alternative fuels in Brazil. • Bio-LNG may not be suitable for long-distance maritime transport. • Green H 2 is penalized by costs, energy density and applicability disadvantages. • Green ammonia may be an alternative for Brazilian cabotage transport. • E-fuels face significant challenges in terms of cost and technological maturity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to provide an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) perspective of the production and distribution of alternative marine fuels in Brazilian ports, considering the International Maritime Organization (IMO) emission reduction target for 2050 (IMO2050). Although other mitigation measures are available, it is likely that alternative fuels will be required, implying additional costs and entailing relevant impacts on other energy chains and land use. Hence, the national IAM BLUES model is adapted to represent the relevant part of the international shipping sector. A set of scenarios is developed considering different fuel alternatives, demand assumptions and national mitigation targets. Findings show that taking into account emissions of CO 2 only or of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) within the IMO strategy significantly impacts the optimal technological portfolio. Furthermore, achieving the IMO2050 goal without considering a national decarbonization strategy may result in potential spillovers. The intense use of the energy sector could partially compromise the gains obtained by maritime decarbonization or even surpass it. Therefore, only an integrated mitigation strategy would lead to more effective decarbonization of the entire marine supply. • There is no single optimal portfolio of alternative fuels for shipping. • Brazil can fulfil any low-carbon marine fuel strategy. • Marine fuels should be part of all national decarbonization strategies. • The decarbonization of shipping should be part of Brazil's deep mitigation pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]