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Abstract: Human migration has been described as one of the conflict constellations in regions affected by climate change, but can also contribute to climate adaptation. Migrant social networks can help to build social capital to increase the social resilience in the communities of origin and trigger innovations across regions by the transfer of knowledge, technology, remittances and other resources. These could increase the flexibility, diversity and creativity of communities in addressing climate stress and open new pathways for co-development connecting the home and host communities. Based on a conceptual framework connecting migration and adaptation, the paper explores possible opportunities, innovative approaches and institutional mechanisms for migration as a contribution to climate adaptation. The Western Sahel will be used as a case study region, with a focus on Mali, Mauritania and Senegal, using qualitative and quantitative analysis of remittances at the national level, and a micro-level analysis on the role of migrant networks in these countries in specific co-development projects in water, food and energy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Recent studies have shown that many marine ecosystems are experiencing an accelerating loss of population and biodiversity. It is apparent that there is a growing disparity between the available supply of fish and the desire of the growing world population to catch them. Although studies have begun to question the ecological sustainability of managed fishery systems, they often omit the corresponding effects on the economic sustainability of fishery industries. This is particularly important in rural coastal areas where the fishing industry is often a dominant employer. In this article, we analyze the interactions between economic and ecological dynamic systems using a multi-agent dynamic model of fishery management. Multiple agents (fishers) harvest multiple fish species and adapt the amount and allocation of their effort to their value functions, which are given as net profits of the fish harvest sold for a market price. This is largely unique in fishery models, since many econometric studies view fishers as represented by homogenous ‘average’ agents. We introduce and compare two different decision rules governing the behavior of fishers engaged in a competitive market. We demonstrate a situation where both behaviors lead to a decline of all fish stocks, as well as profits for most fishers. As an alternative, we introduce a cooperative approach in which fisheries jointly set sustainable limits for total harvest and effort that are then distributed to the fishers according to distribution rules. The simulation reveals that fish stocks and profits can stabilize at significantly higher levels in the cooperative case, leading to a continuous accumulation of capital for all fishers. This model demonstrates key aspects of overfishing conflicts that can be overcome through planned fishing quotas and cooperative market mechanisms. It also demonstrates a novel approach for simulating the dynamic behavior of heterogeneous fishers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• This study develops a smart groundwater governance (SGG) model using a dynamics approach. • It introduces new smart and dynamic models to compensate policy deficiencies. • The study applied both secondary and primary data to model the groundwater cycle. • The results outline the benefits of the model for policy and decision makers in SGG. • The findings allow decision makers to choose the best alternative scenarios toward SGG. Groundwater is one of the most important and vital resources in the world. In current decades, increased water demand and pollution threaten groundwater availability. Yet, groundwater governance is a serious challenge and despite many studies focusing on groundwater assessments, its governance has been largely neglected. Smart groundwater governance is one of the most critical areas to improve the sustainable use of this resource in societies and people's livelihood. The main goal of this paper was to introduce a model to evaluate and measure the smartness level of any policy or action as an index. To do so, this study uses a system dynamics (SD) approach to develop a smart groundwater governance (SGG) model to assist policy and decision makers to better understand the short and long-term impacts of their actions, plans, and policies. For this purpose, the SGG index was introduced in the dynamic model, including four indicators (i.e., equitability, efficiency, sustainability, and democracy) and was applied in Iran. The results indicate that groundwater balance is critical (i.e. negative) and the current trend of groundwater governance is highly non-smart in the country. This study concluded that the best strategy to manage this situation and to govern the groundwater resources in a smarter manner includes both increasing the infiltration rate and decreasing the extraction rate (or increase the water efficiency) as the left and right based scenarios. The obtained results also demonstrate the benefits of the SGG index for policy and decision makers in SGG. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of combating climate change and maintaining energy security, ambitious bioenergy development projects in emerging economies face considerable challenges, for example an overburdened bioenergy industry infrastructure due to the growing demand for bioenergy products. There are abundant studies on optimizing the bioenergy industry infrastructure. However, they fail to comprehensively simulate the interactions among the predominant actors of the infrastructure, especially the bioenergy plant operators in emerging economies. To fill this research gap, we develop a new dynamic agent-based model of optimized bioenergy industry infrastructure from the perspective of bioenergy plant operators. We then apply the model to Jiangsu Province of China to simulate the coordination of two types of bioenergy plants and project the optimal distribution of these plants and their corresponding transportation networks for the year of 2030. The model results suggest locating bioenergy plants closer to bioenergy feedstock source regions rather than to bioenergy products consumption sites, an answer to the classical facility location problem. A welfare analysis based on the extended model indicates that the biomass densification process aiming at mitigating the growing transport volumes incurred by the delivery of bulky bioenergy feedstock is not economically profitable in our case region. The experiences from this region further show that for emerging economies, a successful bioenergy industry infrastructure needs to take the benefits of smallholder farmers into consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article applies a multi-method approach to develop a better measurement of urbanization dynamics using remote and human sensing based on a GIS platform. The results demonstrate the benefits of bringing human and remote sensing sources together in a framework of hot spot analysis for a megacity such as Mexico City. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that human and remote sensing work well together in detecting the expansion of illegal urban settlements. Looking at the driving factors of illegal settlements, the existence of strong association between the expansion of illegal urban settlements and socioeconomic factors such as unemployment, provides some answers and reveals new questions. Illegal urban growth often leads to the loss of ecological areas in the urban frontiers, especially in areas where the urbanization potential is high. As a consequence, there are conflicts with legal settlers who dislike the illegal expansion. This approach can be extended to and replicated in new urbanizing areas, in particular in Africa and Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, rapid economic growth and urbanization have driven significant livelihood transitions in rural China, which raised diverse climate and environmental impacts. This study investigated the impacts of such livelihood transitions on rural households' carbon footprint at the Three Gorges Reservoir area in West China during the period of 1978–2016. By random sampling surveys, a total of 422 households were interviewed in September 2016 and March 2017. Our results show that: 1) The vast majority of households shifted their livelihood strategies from pure agriculture to industry and/or commerce. 2) Household incomes generally became more diverse and were increasingly generated from non-agricultural sectors. 3) Changes of the carbon footprint of the surveyed households indicated a significant transformation from net carbon emission (1494.789 tons) in 1978 to net carbon sequestration (2631.85 tons) in 2016, which was contributed mainly by general shifts of rural livelihood styles and government policies (e.g. the Grain for Green policy). Accordingly, to promote a low-carbon rural development at the study area and possibly beyond, we suggest political strategies to encourage voluntary and flexible farmland utilization, promote capital investments in agriculture mechanization, improve rural infrastructures, upscaling agricultural technical training, and continue and specialize the "Grain for Green" policy at suitable locations. • Rural households changed livelihood strategies from pure agriculture to mixed industry and/or commerce. • Rural households' carbon footprint transformed from net carbon emission in 1978 to net carbon sequestration in 2016. • Studied carbon emissions increased slightly while the carbon sequestration increased significantly. • Carbon footprint changes were determined by transitions of rural livelihood and government policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest transition and urban shrinkage have received increased attention in national ecological conservation (NEC) and local development (LD) with the urgent to attain sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, few studies have concerned with the impacts of forest transition on urban shrinkage, which limits an in-depth understanding of the relationship between NEC and LD. The study aims to bridge this gap based on an analysis framework of the relationship between forest transition and urban shrinkage. We used Yichun City, one of the representative forest-based cities in China, as a case study to quantitatively analyze the impacts of forest transition on urban shrinkage by conducting the baseline regression and the threshold regression models from 1973 to 2018. The results show that forest transition exerts triggering effects on urban shrinkage via combination of socioeconomic dynamics and NEC policy. The underlying mechanisms of the effects are concluded as a causal chain with the triggering factor of industrial diversity: 'NEC policy – forest transition – socioeconomic dynamics – urban shrinkage'. This study provides significant insight into the trade-off between NEC and LD in that the national policy for promoting natural ecosystem recovery may sacrifice local development, which challenges sustainable development both at the national and local levels. For this reason, policy implications have been proposed to achieve the win-win options of NEC and LD, including differentiated policies on forest management and industrial structure upgrading strategies based on industry diversification. • An analysis framework of the relationship between forest transition (FT) and urban shrinkage (US) is presented. • National ecological conservation versus local development is analyzed based on the triggering effects of FT on US. • The effects are explained by a causal chain with the triggering factor of industrial diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livelihood in Iran’s rural areas, as elsewhere in the developing world, is highly intertwined with the harvesting of environmental resources, leading to severe environmental degradation. To shed light on possible solutions, this study employs the conceptual framework of sustainable livelihood and the multinomial logit model. This reveals the intra-household determinants of each livelihood strategy that significantly contribute to designing better livelihoods and socio-economic development programs. Such factors alleviate environmental resource demand, and thus degradation. By employing a two-step cluster analysis with seven indicators related to households’ livelihood activity, three distinctive livelihood strategies were identified, including commercial, mixed, and fishery/livestock strategies. Livelihood assets that encompass human, physical, social, natural, and financial assets are considered as dependent variables, while household livelihood strategies are independent variables. Data was collected through both qualitative and quantitative methods, including household surveys, direct observation, and unstructured interviews with local informants and administrators. The results show that enhancing financial, social, and human assets have facilitated adopting commercial and mixed strategies, while physical assets have enhanced the propensity toward the fishery/livestock strategy. Moreover, although financial assets are the most significant assets in facilitating adoption of non-environmental strategies, enhancing environmental pursuer’s access to financial resources alone, without improving their human and social assets, may lead to higher harvesting efforts. Therefore, the study concludes that interventions aimed at enhancing both conservation and livelihoods should improve the human, social, and financial assets of resource users, to facilitate the adoption of less environmentally reliant and profitable strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Horn of Africa region stands out amongst the planet's territories that are most volatile and vulnerable to armed violence. Conflicts have greatly affected the region over the past 50 years. The conflicts have disrupted the lives of people as well as the environment in ways that are not fully understood. Although armed conflict has generally had a negative impact on the environment, the environmental impact of conflict within the Horn of Africa has barely been evaluated. Similarly, our understanding that climate variability as well as change could have played a role in increasing or decreasing the impacts of conflicts within the Horn of Africa is insufficient. Therefore, this paper looks at the environmental impacts of conflict in the Horn of Africa since 1970 and also the role of climate variability in increasing or decreasing the impacts of conflict. Scientific publications as well as grey literature were reviewed with the aim to understand the status of past and present conflicts in the Horn of Africa, environmental impacts of conflict and the role of climate variability in decreasing or increasing impacts of conflict. The review demonstrates that conflict has extensive negative impacts on the environment in the Horn of Africa with main causes like grievances, government behaviour and interests, resource scarcity and transborder conflict as well as internal migration and climate variability. Similarly, climate variability plays a great role in exacerbating the impacts of conflict in the region. However, further research is needed to clearly show the impact of conflict and climate variability on the environment in the Horn of Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling experts have been continually researching the interplay of human mobility and COVID-19 transmission since the outbreak of the pandemic. They tried to address this problem and support the control of the pandemic spreading at the national or regional levels. However, these modeling approaches had little success in producing empirically verifiable results at the neighborhood level due to a lack of data and limited representation of low spatial scales in the models. To fill this gap, this research aims to present an agent-based model to simulate human mobility choices in the context of COVID-19, based on social activities of individuals in the neighborhood. We apply the VIABLE model to the decision-making process of heterogeneous agents, who populate the system's environment. The agents adapt their mobility and activities autonomously at each iteration to improve their well-being and respond to exposure risks. The study reveals significant temporal variations in mobility choices between the groups of agents with different vulnerability levels under the Covid-19 pandemic. Agents from the same group with similar economic backgrounds tend to select the same mobility patterns and activities leading to segregation at this low scale. We calibrated the model with a focus on Porto Alegre in Brazil. • We develop an agent-based model to understand neighborhood-level exposure-related human mobility behavior • We apply the VIABLE model in the decision-making process of agents to lead to a better choice • Our results show agents' dynamic segregated mobility behaviors during Covid-19 • The model is applicable to a variety of environmental shock scenarios [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, declining soil fertility is the main biophysical constraint to improve crop yield and poses a potential threat to food security. This study aims to explore the elements that could influence the adoption of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) practices as well as their impact on maize yield. This study is based on a pseudo-panel collected by Ethiopia's central statistical agency (CSA) in collaboration with the World Bank. A Multinomial Endogenous Switching Regression model (MESR) was employed to achieve the specified objectives. The findings revealed that 15% of plots received no soil fertility-enhancing treatments, while 35% received a combination of inorganic fertilizer and manure to boost soil fertility. The average maize yield in the study was 3.44 tons per hectare, which was nearly equal to the average national yield in the prior year. Finally, maize yield was significantly influenced by soil fertility management measures, whether used alone or in combination of two or more soil fertility enhancing technologies. The extent of the impact, however, varies significantly depending on the inputs employed. Thus, using manure or compost alone had a moderate but significant impact on maize yield, but using inorganic fertilizer in combination with manure had the biggest impact. Therefore, policies that support the expansion of ISFM practices should be promoted. Farm households also receive technical assistance and training to better understand the use of ISFM practices, and policies that promote them should be expanded. • This study evaluated the elements influencing the adoption of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) practices. • Declining soil fertility is the main biophysical constraint to improve crop yield and food security. • Maize yield was significantly influenced by soil fertility management measures. • Using inorganic fertilizer in combination with manure had the biggest impact. • Using manure or compost had a moderate but significant impact on maize yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper aimed to investigate the interactions between land use cover (LUC) and climate change (CC). • The results showed that the interactions between LUC and CC are both direct and indirect. • Arable and rangeland use changes affect CO2 emission in both direct and indirect ways. • Rising rangelands and reducing forest areas have indirectly increased surface temperature. • CC mitigation policies should be followed by considering both direct and indirect effects. Humanity deals with several challenges in this century such as climate change, land use, and land use/cover change (LUCC). Determining the patterns, developments, and consequences of LUCC issues for the livelihoods of people, especially poor people, is very important. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the interactions between LUCC and climate change over the period of 1966–2015 (50 years) as a complex system at the global level. CO 2 emissions and surface temperature are considered as the main indicators of climate change (CC). The data were analyzed in time-oriented (time-based) and local or place-oriented (country-based) manners. The results showed that arable and rangeland use changes (LUC) affect CO 2 emissions in both direct and indirect ways. However, the direct effect of rangeland use change is positive, and its indirect effect is negative. In addition, deforestation has increased CO 2 emissions indirectly. LUCC can also change the ability of the ecosystem to deliver services to people, including biodiversity and other resources such as food, fiber, water, etc. Therefore, it is critical to determine the patterns, trends, and impacts of LUCC on CC. Thus, CC mitigation policies should be followed by considering both direct and indirect effects. Without a doubt, this will be realized when the decision and policymakers have a better understanding of the structure and interaction between CC, LUCC, and their components as a whole system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies discuss the link between climate change and violent conflict, especially for East Africa. While there is extensive literature on the question whether climate change increases the risk of violent conflict onset, not much is known about where a climate-conflict link is most likely to be found. We address this question by analyzing the spatial distribution of the factors commonly associated with a high exposure and vulnerability to climate change, and a high risk of violent conflict onset in Kenya and Uganda. Drawing on recent literature and quantitative data for the period 1998–2008, we develop various specifications of a composite risk index (CRI) with a spatial resolution of half a degree for Kenya and Uganda in the year 2008. A quantitative comparison with conflict data for the year 2008 provides support for the composite risk index. Finally, the composite risk index is contrasted with the findings of three qualitative case studies, which provide mixed support for the index and help to identify its strengths and weaknesses as well as conceptual needs for further quantitative studies on climate change and violent conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lifting water is crucial to irrigate agricultural terraces in the Mediterranean region. But the energy demand and emissions of modern forms of water pumping have increased, while many traditional water wheels, which lift water at zero direct emissions, have been abandoned. We explored the state of preservation and the potential for the deployment of traditional water wheels known as "norias" in the Ricote Valley of southeast Spain, where some are still in function, while also investigating the reasons for their widespread abandonment. A mixed method approach is used here to combine GIS-based methods, an expert survey, and a technological and socio-economic assessment of noria renovation. Our findings show that norias in the Ricote Valley have mostly been replaced by thermal-engine water-lifting technologies. The reactivation of traditional irrigation technologies, many of them lying dormant but still standing, could contribute to reducing the high energy demand and the resulting emissions of irrigation systems in the Mediterranean region and beyond. It was estimated by data extrapolation that 16 renovated norias included in our analysis can irrigate 140.3 ha in the Ricote Valley, for a total achievable power of 23.8 kW. To irrigate a similar surface applying diesel motor pumps would produce up to 148 tons of emissions/year and cost up to approx. 70,000 €/year based on a price of 1.25€/l diesel for a maximum of 8760 working hours/year. In the case of electric pumps, we estimate that up to 55 tons of emissions/year and costs up to approx. 48,000 €/year can be saved. Therefore, we argue that rediscovering traditional technologies has potential to contribute to achieving climate actions that reduce GHG emissions (Sustainable Development Goal 13). Moreover, these technologies provide multiple functions and services for a sustainable life on land (Sustainable Development Goal 15), which needs to be considered within a holistic approach. [Display omitted] • Norias are pre-industrial water wheels used for irrigation. • In Ricote Valley, 16 norias irrigated 140 ha with an estimated power of 23 kW. • Their renovation would allow zero-emission irrigation. • We estimate savings of up to 70,000€ and 148 t of CO 2 per year compared to diesel pumps. • Their preservation serves society, ecology and economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop diversity is crucial for sustainable farmland ecosystems and global sustainability, and thus is a popular subject of research in ecological economics, agricultural science, and geography. Many studies have revealed the individual impacts of government policies or market changes on crop diversity. However, research on the combined effects of both government policy interventions and market-induced substitutions on changing crop diversity remains limited. This study clarifies the underlying mechanisms leading to changes in crop diversity in light of the joint effects of policies on grain subsidy implemented by the government to encourage monocropping as well as the market-induced forces that stimulate diversified planting. We used Hubei Province, one of the main grain-producing areas in Central China, as a case study. The foremost contribution of this study is its exploration of a global understanding of policy-oriented versus market-induced forces in driving changes in crop diversity at the regional level. Policy-oriented forces played a leading role in the past decline in diversity by restraining an increase in market-induced crop diversity. This leading role was reliant on encouraging certain crops through grain subsidies provided according to the farmers' targeted land use to maximize labor productivity. On the whole, strong implementation of policies on grain subsidy have challenged sustainable farmland ecosystems because of the resulting reduction in crop diversity. We argue that the relationship between top-down food security-oriented policies and bottom-up market-induced crop substitutions for a sustainable farmland ecosystem should be immediately and completely coordinated, while regionally differentiated cropping regulations should also be considered. • Market-induced crop substitution is able to enhance crop diversity. • The national grain subsidy policy encourages large-scale farming with mono-cropping. • The effect of market-induced crop substitution is strongly constrained by the national grain subsidy policy. • The relationship between food safety-oriented grain subsidy policies and market-induced crop substitution should be urgently coordinated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Our study links environmental impacts of climate change to major socio-economic and agricultural developments in North Africa. We jointly investigate climate projections, vulnerability, impacts, and options for adaptation. Precipitation in North Africa is likely to decrease between 10 and 20%, while temperatures are likely to rise between 2 and 3°C by 2050. This trend is most pronounced in the north-western parts of northern Africa as our own model results suggest. The combination of decreasing supply and strong population growth aggravates the stressed water situation in the region. We further compare the vulnerabilities, adaptive capacities and conflict implications of climate change in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. Climate change will likely have the strongest effect on Morocco where the agricultural sector is of high importance for the country''s economy and particularly for poor people. Our analysis of climate impacts and adaptation options in Morocco suggests that the agricultural incentives used in the past are inadequate to buffer drought effects. To increase resilience against climate change, agricultural policies should shift from maximizing agricultural output to stabilizing it. Our bio-economic model results further suggest a considerable potential of replacing firewood by electric energy to sustain pastoral productivity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Sustainable entrepreneurship is a strategy for development, growth, and prosperity that has received the attention of researchers, especially in the fields of economic development and rural businesses. The present study aims to identify the sustainable entrepreneurship indicators in Iranian rural businesses using the Fuzzy Delphi method. The results derived from three phases of the Delphi technique introduced 87 indicators for sustainable entrepreneurship. However, considering the threshold, just 69 indicators were approved by the experts. In the sociocultural dimension, scholars pay special attention to the promotion of social trust and social altruism and empathy among the local people. In the economic dimension, indicators such as utilization of facilities, cost management of products and services for business stability, and market management had higher averages. Finally, major indicators of the ethical dimension include financial business transparency, ethics in using biological resources, and managing human resources. In general, the obtained results highlight the importance of determining the stability of indicators in rural entrepreneurship and the necessity of managers' and politicians' attention toward this sector. • The present study aimed to identify the sustainable entrepreneurship indicators in rural businesses. • The results showed that in the sociocultural dimension, scholars pay special attention to the promotion of social trust. • In the economic dimension, products and services cost management for business stability had higher averages. • Major ethical indicators were financial transparency in business and ethics in the use of biological resources. • The study recommended the importance of determining the stability of indicators in rural entrepreneurship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of urban population density (UPD) has attracted extensive attention from both policymakers and scholars because it can be used to indicate the sustainability of city growth. Substantial research considering urban areas as whole units has demonstrated a close relationship between urban land expansion and demographic urbanization. However, the impacts of the urban land-use structure (ULUS) on sustainable city growth from the perspective of UPD dynamics have largely been ignored. Based on the understanding of human–land interactions in the process of city evolution, we present a holistic theoretical framework for the impacts of changing ULUS on UPD dynamics. Taking 331 cities proper in China as the study objects, we found that the designation of urban land has mostly depended upon land substitution resulting from the high economic returns of land used for secondary and tertiary industries and residential purposes. This is induced by the increasing scarcity of urban land and people's primary requirements for the dwelling and employment functions of a city rather than its living-environment function. The results confirmed that the holistic theoretical framework is effective for understanding the impacts of changing ULUS on UPD dynamics, and that taking consideration of these impacts in the structural reform of urban land supply is significant for promoting sustainable city growth. This study also provides inspiration for understanding the uncertainties relating to sustainable city growth based on identification of city shrinkage and growth patterns. We discuss regionally differentiated policies relating to structural reform of urban land supply and strategies for coping with city shrinkage. • A holistic mechanism framework for the dynamics of urban population density (UPD) is presented. • A set of rules for identifying city shrinkage and growth were developed based on UPD dynamics. • Land-substitution models were established to measure spatiotemporal changes in urban land use structure (ULUS). • Designation of urban land was mostly induced by the high economic returns of land in China. • The impacts of ULUS on UPD are of significance for promoting sustainable city growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a watershed, disturbing land covers (LCs) are one of the most important factors in the balance and flow rate of water. This study aimed to monitor and model LC changes in the upstream of the Aras River Basin in Turkey over 1984, 2002, 2010 and 2016. The main ground to conduct such an analysis was to mitigate severe economic, social and ecological consequences driven by agricultural activities and dam construction along with probable climate change, which would decrease the water flow from the Aras River to Caspian Sea. The study approach consisted of four main steps: 1) producing LC maps using Landsat satellite images, 2) performing the change analysis, 3) identifying the change driver variables for each of the calibration period, and 4) identifying the most accurate scenario and predicting maps of the years 2026 and 2036 based on the calibration periods (i.e., 1984–2002 and 2002–2010) using the Land Change Modeler (LCM). Moreover, the net changes in each LC were studied as well the transition from one LC to another and the spatial pattern of these changes over a 32-year period. The results show the growth of agricultural, industrial and residential lands in the upstream during 1984–2016. This trend seems to be more critical in 2026 and 2036. The construction of small to medium sized dams and redirecting rivers in order to supply water for increasing agricultural lands and industrial/municipal areas will affect the quantity of water flowing to downstream. This decreasing trend in water flow of upstream areas will intensify the shortage of water used for agricultural, industrial and drinking purposes in downstream countries in future. This study suggests that the Aras River Basin, as one of the most important feeders of the Caspian Sea, needs more protection and monitoring programs. Likewise, similar studies must be conducted in Iran, Armenia and Azerbaijan given these countries plan to preserve the quality and quantity of the Aras River. • We monitored LC in the Aras River Basin, as one of the most important feeders of Caspian Sea. • Trends and driver variables of LC changes was examined from 1984 until 2016. • The land change modeler was run in multiple scenarios for predicting LC in 2026 and 2036. • We detected extreme increases in water consumption LC i.e., agriculture and residential. • The Aras Basin trans -boundary countries must adopt a comprehensive plan for protection of the river. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable farmland intensification is necessary in order to harmonize relationships between food security, socioeconomic development, and ecological civilization. However, the degradation of farmland sustainability because of biological disasters represents a major challenge if we are to achieve this intensification. Our understanding of farmland vulnerability to biological disasters (FVBD) remains relatively rudimentary and subjective, limiting its effectiveness as a tool for farmland sustainability analysis. Limited research has also been carried out on FVBD changes taking into account human decisions on farmland use. The aim of this study is to achieve a novel understanding of FVBD change and its implications for sustainable intensification using evidence from Chinese farmland use. A theoretical framework based on an inverted U-shaped curve that depicts FVBD as well as an assessment framework for FVBD were established using induced substitution of agricultural production. Across China and considering 15 provincial districts with scarce farmland, the relationship between FVBD and socio-economic development was identified as consistent with an inverted U-shaped curve at both national and provincial levels. FVBD values in 2016 across Southern China, on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, and on the middle-lower Yangtze Plain were 45.44, 40.58, and 37.22, respectively. These values also decreased in provinces on the middle-lower Yangtze Plain between 1995 and 2016, but increased markedly across provinces in Southern China and on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Contributions to FVBD changes during stages of growth and decline were also analyzed between 1995 and 2016. An inverted U-shaped curve was effective in investigating the responses of farmland sustainability to a range of alternative future socioeconomic development pathways. Thus, in the Chinese settings, a typical country with scarce farmland, policies on FVBD control are essential if we are to promote sustainable farmland intensification. The findings of this work are important and present us with a new way to understand FVBD from a human perspective. Unlabelled Image • A theoretical framework for farmland vulnerability to biological disasters (FVBD) is presented. • An assessment framework of FVBD is established. • An inverted U-shaped curve relationship between FVBD and socioeconomics is identified in China. • Changes in index contributions to FVBD are analyzed. • Policy implications for promoting sustainable farmland intensification are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]