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Our 15th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity conservation. A panel of 31 scientists and practitioners submitted a total of 96 topics that were ranked using a Delphi-style technique according to novelty and likelihood of impact on biodiversity conservation. The top 37 issues were discussed in person and online in September 2023 during which the issues were ranked according to the same criteria. Our 15 issues cover impacts from the development of new sources of hydrogen fuel to temperature changes in the mesopelagic ocean zone. Other emerging technologies include benchtop DNA printers and the creation of high-protein food from air. We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents. For example, new sources of hydrogen fuel and changes in deep-sea currents may have profound impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Technological advances that may be positive include benchtop DNA printers and the industrialisation of approaches that can create high-protein food from air, potentially reducing the pressure on land for food production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Business-biodiversity action is increasingly seen as critical for delivering conservation goals, but such action needs to be effective. Using detailed semi-structured interviews with leading business-biodiversity professionals and consultants we aimed to understand the actions currently taken and why, how actions are decided upon, and current challenges that hinder effective, efficient action. The scale and type of action varied by sector, driven largely by the risks (reputational, financial) of inaction. Cost-effectiveness was important to businesses, but the limited quantification of the economic consequences of biodiversity action hindered uptake. Indirect evidence sources were generally used to guide decision-making including using expert consultants, guidance, standards or certifications. Acquiring better evidence of cost-effectiveness, particularly if embedded within these indirect sources, could improve practice. A diverse set of challenges emerged that impeded business engagement with biodiversity, effective decision-making, and action implementation. We discuss opportunities to address them and thus improve the effectiveness of business-biodiversity action. • Semi-structured interviews to understand leading businesses' action and decision-making around business-biodiversity action. • Actions taken, and decision-making were highly variable across businesses. • Decisions where often guided by indirect sources of evidence e.g., guidance, experts, certifications, or policy. • Cost-effectiveness is important, but businesses face challenges when engaging with biodiversity, and deciding upon actions. • We identify opportunities improve the effectiveness and efficiency of business-biodiversity action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial set of 102 topics, our global panel of 30 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues we consider most urgent for societies worldwide to address. Issues are novel within biological conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step change at global or regional scales. Issues such as submerged artificial light fisheries and accelerating upper ocean currents could have profound negative impacts on marine or coastal ecosystems. We also identified potentially positive technological advances, including energy production and storage, improved fertilisation methods, and expansion of biodegradable materials. If effectively managed, these technologies could realise future benefits for biological diversity. Our 14th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity conservation. A panel of 30 scientists and practitioners submitted a total of 102 topics that were ranked using a Delphi-style technique according to novelty and likelihood of impact on biodiversity conservation. The top 36 issues were discussed in person and online in September 2022 during which issues were ranked according to the same criteria. Our 15 issues cover impacts from DNA-enabled biobatteries to submerged artificial light fisheries. Other emerging issues include increased demand for chitosan, accelerating upper ocean currents, and microbiome stewardship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact on biodiversity conservation. Issues are either novel within the biological conservation sector or could cause a substantial step-change in impact, either globally or regionally. Our global panel of 26 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues that we believe to represent the highest priorities for tracking and action. Many of the issues we identified, including the impact of satellite megaconstellations and the use of long-distance wireless energy transfer, have both elements of threats and emerging opportunities. A recent state-sponsored application to commence deep-sea mining represents a significant step-change in impact. We hope that this horizon scan will increase research and policy attention on the highlighted issues. Our 13th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity conservation. A panel of 26 scientists and practitioners submitted a total of 80 topics that were ranked using a Delphi-style technique according to the novelty and likelihood of impact on biodiversity conservation. The top 36 issues were discussed at an online meeting held in September 2021 during which issues were ranked according to the same criteria. Our 15 issues cover impacts ranging from satellite megaconstellations to deep-sea mining. Other emerging issues include floating photovoltaics, long-distance wireless energy, and ammonia as a fuel source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal behavioral studies have not contributed much to conservation biology despite exciting research developments in the field. There are 20 areas where the study of animal behavior can help conservation. Such areas include small population extinction, inbreeding depression, species isolation, fragmentation, environmental change, predation, cultural skills, behavioral manipulation, release schemes, habitat requirements, reserve areas, captive breeding, reproduction, habitat preferences, stressful conditions, census techniques, exploitation, human population, discounting and conservation.

Leks feature prominently in studies of sexual selection, as they typically show extreme differences between males in mating successes. A degree of skew may decrease with lek size but there is non consensus on how to measure skewness. Data from mating success for 18 species shows that different species have similar skew versus lek size relationships, although the statistical power is insufficient to make a complete distinction with different alternatives relating to individual optima of males.

A replicated block experiment to assess the effects of soil treatments on vegetation composition and soil nutrients in lichen-rich calcareous Breckland grass heath in England reveals that rotovation benefits vegetation while ploughing harms it and reduces nitrogen concentrations in the soil. Rotovation decreases vegetation height, promotes rabbit activity and increases species density.

We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological conservation in the future. From a list of 97 topics, our global panel of 25 scientists and practitioners identified the top 15 issues that we believe society may urgently need to address. These issues are either novel in the biological conservation sector or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change in impact at global or regional level. Six issues, such as coral reef deoxygenation and changes in polar coastal productivity, affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven relate to human and ecosystem-level responses to climate change. Identification of potential forthcoming issues for biological conservation may enable increased preparedness by researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers. Our 12th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity conservation. A panel of 25 scientists and practitioners submitted a total of 97 topics that were ranked using a Delphi-style technique according to novelty and likelihood of impact on biodiversity conservation. The top 38 issues were discussed at an online meeting held in September 2020 during which issues were ranked according to the same criteria. Six of the 15 issues primarily affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven are related to human and ecosystem-level responses to anthropogenic climate change. Other emerging issues include complete coverage of Indian states for sustainable farming and the potential for use of self-healing building materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Policy windows periodically open enabling easier knowledge uptake. • Environmental research has tended to regard policy windows as serendipitous. • We argue that environmentalists can create, identify and seize on policy windows. • We propose a 4-stage framework for practically approaching policy windows. Scientific knowledge is considered to be an important factor (alongside others) in environmental policy-making. However, the opportunity for environmentalists to influence policy can often occur within short, discrete time windows. Therefore, a piece of research may have a negligible or transformative policy influence depending on when it is presented. These 'policy windows' are sometimes predictable, such as those dealing with conventions or legislation with a defined renewal period, but are often hard to anticipate. We describe four ways that environmentalists can respond to policy windows and increase the likelihood of knowledge uptake: 1) foresee (and create) emergent windows, 2) respond quickly to opening windows, 3) frame research in line with appropriate windows, and 4) persevere in closed windows. These categories are closely linked; efforts to enhance the incorporation of scientific knowledge into policy need to harness mechanisms within each. We illustrate the main points with reference to nature conservation, but the principles apply widely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this horizon scan, we highlight 15 emerging issues of potential relevance to global conservation in 2020. Seven relate to potentially extensive changes in vegetation or ecological systems. These changes are either relatively new, for example, conversion of kelp forests to simpler macroalgal systems, or may occur in the future, for example, as a result of the derivation of nanocelluose from wood or the rapid expansion of small hydropower schemes. Other topics highlight potential changes in national legislation that may have global effect on international agreements. Our panel of 23 scientists and practitioners selected these issues using a modified version of the Delphi technique from a long-list of 89 potential topics. We present 15 issues that emerged from our 11th annual horizon scan of global biological conservation. Issues were identified by a diverse group of scientists and practitioners. The group scored the long-list of 89 issues using a Delphi-like process. Issues were ranked according to novelty, relevance, and potential impact on biological conservation. The top-38 ranked issues were debated at a workshop in Cambridge, UK, with each topic scored immediately following the discussion. Emerging themes include changes in national legislation that could affect international agreements; recognising ecocide as an international crime; and the global decline in kelp forests. Other issues include the increasing use of traditional Asian medicine; the spread of the Asian long-horned tick; use of artificial wombs in mammalian conservation; and the impact that the shrinking ozone hole may have on Antarctic sea ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our first horizon scan, conducted in 2009, aimed to identify novel but poorly known issues with potentially significant effects on global conservation of biological diversity. Following completion of the tenth annual scan, we reviewed the 15 topics identified a decade ago and assessed their development in the scientific literature and news media. Five topics, including microplastic pollution, synthetic meat, and environmental applications of mobile-sensing technology, appeared to have had widespread salience and effects. The effects of six topics were moderate, three have not emerged, and the effects of one topic were low. The awareness of, and involvement in, these issues by 12 conservation organisations has increased for most issues since 2009. Highlights We review the first horizon scan of global conservation issues, conducted 10 years ago. Five of the 15 issues identified have shown a major increase in importance since 2009. Six other issues appear to have developed to a moderate extent. The proportion of conservation organisations working on nine of the identified topics has increased, but for six topics has decreased. We find little evidence for a relationship between the expertise of participants and the topics that were identified across 10 years of horizon scans. We hope that this review article encourages more widespread adoption of horizon scanning, as well as further evaluation of its effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract As a response to the environmentally and socially destructive practices of post-war mechanization and intensification, the concept of sustainable agriculture has become prominent in research, policy, and practice. Sustainable agriculture aims to balance the economic, environmental, and social aspects of farming, creating a resilient farming system in the long-term. Over the last few decades, various concepts have been used in research and policy to encourage the adoption of sustainable practices. Within such a congested space, this paper assesses the value of 'integrated farm management' as a concept for the promotion of sustainable agriculture. The concept is the subject of renewed policy interest in England and Wales and it is also being promoted in Europe. Previous research, however, has suggested that integrated farm management may not be well understood or widely practised. There are also criticisms that it can be impractical and poorly differentiated from similar ideas. As such, renewed insights are required into how useful the concept might be for encouraging sustainable agriculture. Using a mixed methods approach, we gathered the views of farmers, farm advisors, and industry representatives about integrated farm management in England and Wales, and interpreted these through a theoretical framework to judge the strength of the concept. Overall, the general principles of Integrated Farm Management were found to be coherent and familiar to most of our respondents. However, the concept performed poorly in terms of its resonance, simplicity of message, differentiation from other similar terms and theoretical utility. We reflect on our findings in the context of other ways to promote sustainable agriculture, drawing out messages for policy and knowledge exchange in England and Wales, as well as elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of our tenth annual horizon scan. We identified 15 emerging priority topics that may have major positive or negative effects on the future conservation of global biodiversity, but currently have low awareness within the conservation community. We hope to increase research and policy attention on these areas, improving the capacity of the community to mitigate impacts of potentially negative issues, and maximise the benefits of issues that provide opportunities. Topics include advances in crop breeding, which may affect insects and land use; manipulations of natural water flows and weather systems on the Tibetan Plateau; release of carbon and mercury from melting polar ice and thawing permafrost; new funding schemes and regulations; and land-use changes across Indo-Malaysia. Highlights We present the 15 topics identified in our tenth annual horizon scan for global conservation. Scoring was carried out by a diverse group of experts using a Delphi-like process. Scores were based on the topics' novelty, likelihood, and potential for major impacts on biodiversity. Emerging themes include conservation impacts of biotechnological advances in agriculture. Other issues included climate change-induced release of carbon and mercury from polar ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a novel classification framework for severe global catastrophic risk scenarios. Extending beyond existing work that identifies individual risk scenarios, we propose analysing global catastrophic risks along three dimensions: the critical systems affected, global spread mechanisms, and prevention and mitigation failures. The classification highlights areas of convergence between risk scenarios, which supports prioritisation of particular research and of policy interventions. It also points to potential knowledge gaps regarding catastrophic risks, and provides an interdisciplinary structure for mapping and tracking the multitude of factors that could contribute to global catastrophic risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of decision support tools on-farm may help to deliver evidence-based guidance to farmers, helping to improve productivity and prevent environmental degradation. While much research has sought to increase the uptake of decision support tools in practice, largely by identifying desirable characteristics of system design, rather little work has used a spatial lens to investigate how they are actually used. Using Latour’s notion of ‘the script’, this paper looks at the spatialities of technological and user re-scripting associated with the introduction of decision support tools on-farm. Although there is some literature on how technologies may be re-scripted by users, studies concerning decision support tools are more limited. Furthermore, while there are studies about how technology (not decision support tools) re-scripts agricultural societies, these are generally concerned with macro-level impacts (e.g. labour changes), rather than exploring life on individual farms. This paper, therefore, focuses on exploring the spatialities of re-scripting, investigating how tools themselves are co-constituted in various ways by different users in different spaces, but more particularly on how life on the farm may be changed by the introduction of decision tools. A case study of decision support tool use on farms in England and Wales demonstrates the need to explore spaces on individual farms if we wish to understand processes occurring at the interface between tools and farmers. Firstly, situated knowledge held by farmers and advisers leads to resistance, negotiation, and re-scripting of decision support tools, which are perceived to provide the ‘view from nowhere’. Secondly, the introduction of decision support tools changes the workflows of farmers, affecting how and when they interact with different spaces of their farm. In signalling the need for more research to theorise the spatialities of re-scripting, we briefly explore how our work can inform policy and the development of decision support tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is our ninth annual horizon scan to identify emerging issues that we believe could affect global biological diversity, natural capital and ecosystem services, and conservation efforts. Our diverse and international team, with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, as well as conservation science, practice, and policy, reviewed 117 potential issues. We identified the 15 that may have the greatest positive or negative effects but are not yet well recognised by the global conservation community. Themes among these topics include new mechanisms driving the emergence and geographic expansion of diseases, innovative biotechnologies, reassessments of global change, and the development of strategic infrastructure to facilitate global economic priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision support tools, usually considered to be software-based, may be an important part of the quest for evidence-based decision-making in agriculture to improve productivity and environmental outputs. These tools can lead users through clear steps and suggest optimal decision paths or may act more as information sources to improve the evidence base for decisions. Yet, despite their availability in a wide range of formats, studies in several countries have shown uptake to be disappointingly low. This paper uses a mixed methods approach to investigate the factors affecting the uptake and use of decision support tools by farmers and advisers in the UK. Through a combination of qualitative interviews and quantitative surveys, we found that fifteen factors are influential in convincing farmers and advisers to use decision support tools, which include usability, cost-effectiveness, performance, relevance to user, and compatibility with compliance demands. This study finds a plethora of agricultural decision support tools in operation in the UK, yet, like other studies, shows that their uptake is low. A better understanding of the fifteen factors identified should lead to more effective design and delivery of tools in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tracking of seabirds at sea is valuable for marine spatial planning. Many seabirds are of conservation concern, including albatrosses and large petrels (Procellariiformes) which face a major threat from mortality in fisheries. We examine how important areas used by seven of these species breeding at South Georgia change throughout the year, based on tracking data collected between 1991 and 2012, and discuss the implications for spatial management in the region within the current jurisdictional framework. Foraging areas overlapped with a patchwork of national and international management organizations, and areas outside clear jurisdiction. National waters were generally unimportant, besides that of South Georgia. The other exception was Falkland Islands coastal waters, which were important for wandering albatrosses Diomedea exulans during incubation, and were opened for new oil and gas drilling in 2015. The marine protected area established at the South Orkney Islands protects very little habitat used by the tracked seabirds; however, a northern extension of this would benefit a number of species at different breeding stages. The area around South Georgia was important year-round, including in periods when fishing is allowed. A contiguous region to the north of this was also important and here, mechanisms should be improved to ensure compliance with bird bycatch mitigation recommendations. The study highlighted the use of tracking for identifying key areas for pelagic albatrosses and petrels, and the advantages of incorporating these data into a multilateral approach to marine spatial planning to ensure the future conservation of these highly-threatened marine predators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of our sixth annual horizon scan, which aims to identify phenomena that may have substantial effects on the global environment, but are not widely known or well understood. A group of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The topics include a novel class of insecticide compounds, legalisation of recreational drugs, and the emergence of a new ecosystem associated with ice retreat in the Antarctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Highlights: [•] This is the fifth in our annual series of horizon scans published in TREE. [•] We identify 15 issues that we considered insufficiently known by the conservation community. [•] These cover a wide range of issues. Four relate to climate change, two to invasives and two to disease spread. [•] This exercise has been influential in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We model stochastic ecological networks with multiple interaction types. [•] We vary the color and degree of interspecific synchrony of noise. [•] We measure ecosystem variability under different noise conditions. [•] Colored and synchronized noise increase ecosystem variability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents the findings of our fourth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity. The 15 issues were identified via an iterative, transferable process by a team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist. The 15 topics include the commercial use of antimicrobial peptides, thorium-fuelled nuclear power, and undersea oil production. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Our aim in conducting annual horizon scans is to identify issues that, although currently receiving little attention, may be of increasing importance to the conservation of biological diversity in the future. The 15 issues presented here were identified by a diverse team of 22 experts in horizon scanning, and conservation science and its application. Methods for identifying and refining issues were the same as in two previous annual scans and are widely transferable to other disciplines. The issues highlight potential changes in climate, technology and human behaviour. Examples include warming of the deep sea, increased cultivation of perennial grains, burning of Arctic tundra, and the development of nuclear batteries and hydrokinetic in-stream turbines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review describes outcomes of a 2010 horizon-scanning exercise building upon the first exercise conducted in 2009. The aim of both horizon scans was to identify emerging issues that could have substantial impacts on the conservation of biological diversity, and to do so sufficiently early to encourage policy-relevant, practical research on those issues. Our group included professional horizon scanners and researchers affiliated with universities and non- and inter-governmental organizations, including specialists on topics such as invasive species, wildlife diseases and coral reefs. We identified 15 nascent issues, including new greenhouse gases, genetic techniques to eradicate mosquitoes, milk consumption in Asia and societal pessimism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Horizon scanning identifies emerging issues in a given field sufficiently early to conduct research to inform policy and practice. Our group of horizon scanners, including academics and researchers, convened to identify fifteen nascent issues that could affect the conservation of biological diversity. These include the impacts of and potential human responses to climate change, novel biological and digital technologies, novel pollutants and invasive species. We expect to repeat this process and collation annually. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Policymakers and practitioners in most fields, including conservation and the environment, often make decisions based on insufficient evidence. One reason for this is that issues appear unexpectedly, when with hindsight, many of them were foreseeable. A solution to the problem of being insufficiently prepared is routine horizon scanning, which we describe as the systematic search for potential threats and opportunities that are currently poorly recognized. Researchers can then decide which issues might be most worthwhile to study. Practitioners can also use horizon scanning to ensure timely policy development and research procurement. Here, we suggest that horizon scanning is an underused tool that should become a standard element of environmental and conservation practice. We make recommendations for its incorporation into research, policy and practice. We argue that, as an ecological and conservation community, we are failing to provide timely advice owing to a weakness in identifying forthcoming issues. We outline possible horizon-scanning methods, and also make recommendations as to how horizon scanning could have a more central role in environmental and conservation practice. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Ecological traps arise when animals choose to settle in poor-quality habitats, leading to a reduction in their survival or productivity. Although this phenomenon has received comprehensive theoretical treatment in the recent literature, the corollary of the ecological trap (when animals choose to avoid good-quality habitats) is rarely discussed. Failure to recognize high-quality sites could influence the ability of a population to reach its threshold size. An exploration of this phenomenon brings new insights into existing cases of ecological traps. By considering the full range of pitfalls faced during settlement, the relationship between habitat quality and population size might become clearer. We argue here that an improved understanding of factors determining the colonization of high-quality sites could aid conservationists in mitigating the damaging effects of maladaptive habitat selection. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Cereal steppe habitat is a low intensive system that is rapidly disappearing as a result of changes in agricultural practices, and has the highest number of bird species with an Unfavourable Conservation Status of any habitat in Europe. A logistic regression model showed that the lesser kestrel, a globally threatened species, prefers to forage close to colonies, selects fields with livestock and avoids tree plantations. The conservation of this species is dependent on maintenance of extensive agriculture characterised by a rotation of cereal and grazed fallow. Abandonment of traditional agriculture and recent changes in agri-environmental programme support, which favour afforestation, are jeopardising the future of cereal steppes. Agri-environment measures are likely to be the most effective means of retaining the specific characteristics of cereal steppe habitat. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Much of current conservation practice is based upon anecdote and myth rather than upon the systematic appraisal of the evidence, including experience of others who have tackled the same problem. We suggest that this is a major problem for conservationists and requires a rethinking of the manner in which conservation operates. There is an urgent need for mechanisms that review available information and make recommendations to practitioners. We suggest a format for web-based databases that could provide the required information in accessible form. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A new round of trade talks was launched by the World Trade Organization in Doha, Qatar last year. If the venue struck one as remote, that was the idea, given that the 1999 meeting in Seattle had been embarrassingly disrupted by violent protests over the environmental (and social) costs of free trade. These costs are real and must be faced. However, recent legal and political developments are beginning to resolve the conflict between trade and environment, and are providing new opportunities to reform some environmentally pernicious and politically entrenched public policies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

It is widely accepted that nature conservation practice benefits from incorporating scientific evidence into decision-making. However, even when the evidence is already collated, the task of applying evidence to all of the decisions undertaken by conservation professionals can seem overwhelming. The apparent magnitude of this task may deter individuals and organisations from applying evidence-based conservation. Our aim here is to create a framework to enable organisations to create a strategy for scientific evidence use appropriate for the range of decisions required and the time allocated. We illustrate this framework by showing how two conservation organisations used this approach to plan their evidence-based decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Afforestation decreased soil pH more strongly under conifers than broadleaves. • Carbon and nitrogen concentrations and stocks increased in organic layers. • Changes in mineral layers were minimal, despite nearly a century of afforestation. • There was little difference between alternative forest management options. • Afforestation must consider soil type, particularly for carbon sequestration goals. Extensive afforestation is currently being widely promoted as a key nature-based solution for climate change mitigation. Fundamental to this strategy is the sequestration of carbon into long-term stable storage, either in wood products or the soil. However, the long-term effects of tree planting on soil carbon, or other soil properties, has rarely been examined. Importantly, afforestation can take many different forms, with differing effects on soil properties. Here, we evaluate how the historical afforestation of sandy heathland adopting a range of management options – including different combinations of conifers and broadleaves in monocultures and mixtures – have affected soil pH, total carbon and nitrogen concentrations, the C:N ratio, and carbon and nitrogen stocks almost a century later. We analyse these properties at a range of soil depths through the organic (litter, F and grass layers) and upper mineral (0–5 cm, 5–10 cm and 10–20 cm depth) soil layers. In comparison to the historical heathland sites, afforestation decreased soil pH, most dramatically under conifers, and increased the C:N ratio. However, there was overall little difference in carbon and nitrogen concentrations between alternative management options. While the total carbon and nitrogen concentrations were much higher in the organic layers of the forest options compared to the open sites, this did not translate into differences in the mineral layers. Furthermore, although we found some evidence of the transferral of carbon and nitrogen into the uppermost soil mineral layers, this was minimal in comparison to the concentrations of the organic layers. The soils at our study site are low quality and sandy, and are therefore unfavourable for incorporating organic matter, but it is still notable how little was incorporated after nearly a century of afforestation. Given the current emphasis on tree planting as a means to tackle climate change, these results demonstrate the fundamental importance of the appropriate consideration of both the afforestation management option and underlying soil type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economists, politicians, farmers, consumers and conservationists are all calling for drastic changes in agricultural policies. The current emphasis is on promoting agri–environment schemes, and recent work shows that, although some schemes can be beneficial, others generate negligible gains. An alternative is to combine carefully targeted agri–environment schemes with large-scale habitat restoration. Restoration provides the opportunity to deal with several problems simultaneously, such as sea-level rise, water-catchment protection and flood defence. Pioneering schemes are showing that such restoration is possible, and there is now the opportunity to carry such restoration out more widely. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Conservation practitioners, policy-makers and researchers work within shared spaces with many shared goals. Improving the flow of information between conservation researchers, practitioners and policy-makers could lead to dramatic gains in the effectiveness of conservation practice. However, several barriers can hinder this transfer including lack of time, inaccessibility of evidence, the real or perceived irrelevance of scientific research to practical questions, and the politically motivated spread of disinformation. Conservation Evidence works to overcome these barriers by providing a freely-available database of summarized scientific evidence for the effects of conservation interventions on biodiversity. The methods used to build this database – a combination of discipline-wide literature searching and subject-wide evidence synthesis – have been developed over the last 15 years to address the challenges of synthesizing large volumes of evidence of varying quality and measured outcomes. Here, we describe the methods to enhance understanding of the database and how it should be used. We discuss how the database can help to expand multi-directional information transfers between research, practice and policy, which should improve the implementation of evidence-based conservation and, ultimately, achieve better outcomes for biodiversity. • Conservation effectiveness could be improved by integrating evidence and practice. • Evidence synthesis helps practitioners by collating multiple studies into reviews. • Conservation Evidence aims to review conservation actions for all taxa and habitats. • We describe the holistic search and synthesis methods used to build the database. • The database could help overcome barriers between research, practice and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the limited resources available to address conservation problems, decision-makers are increasingly seeking management solutions that provide value for money. Despite an increasing number of studies that generate estimates of the return-on-investment from conservation management interventions, the ways in which costs are reported are highly variable and generally aggregated. This prevents comparison between studies and the application of systematic tools to synthesize conservation evidence and evaluate the factors that modify costs and benefits. A standardised consensus on the type of cost data to collect and report in conservation science would help build a body of evidence to support decision makers. In efforts to improve evidence-informed decision-making, conservation has looked to health care for tools to support the integration of evidence into management decisions. Increasingly, health care uses economic evaluations of treatment options to estimate the return-on-investment from medical interventions. Here, we describe economic evaluations as a tool for evidence-informed decision-making in health care and draw parallels for how these evaluations could be integrated into conservation. We also suggest tools to help systematically report economic costs of conservation interventions, and illustrate this approach with a case study of turtle conservation. We describe the important elements of economic evaluations, and how these data can be used to greatest effect through tools for evidence synthesis, such as systematic reviews or synopses, to enable decision-makers to identify cost-effective interventions. We believe that a routine commitment from researchers to capture the costs of management interventions would help support evidence-informed decision-making by facilitating the economic evaluations that support cost-effective management decisions. However, this will require clear guidelines for how to capture these data and incentives for conducting the necessary economic evaluations. Being able to present results systematically as return-on-investment could be an important step in encouraging greater use of science by those making management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Making decisions informed by the best-available science is an objective for many organisations managing the environment or natural resources. Yet, available science is still not widely used in environmental policy and practice. We describe a ‘4S’ hierarchy for organising relevant science to inform decisions. This hierarchy has already revolutionised clinical practice. It is beginning to emerge for environmental management, although all four levels need substantial development before environmental decision-makers can reliably and efficiently find the evidence they need. We expose common bypass routes that currently lead to poor or biased representation of scientific knowledge. We argue that the least developed level of the hierarchy is that closest to decision-makers, placing synthesised scientific knowledge into environmental decision support systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Adaptation to climate change has recently become a crucial element on the climate change policy agenda as it is now recognized that even the most stringent mitigation efforts may not arrest the effects of climate warming. The ecological impacts and costs of predicted weather-related extreme events, such as extreme temperatures, are not fully understood and may present unexpected challenges to conservationists that require solutions. In Portugal, provisioning of artificial nests has been the main driver of the spectacular increase in the endangered lesser kestrel population. Nevertheless, atypically high temperatures recorded during the 2009 breeding season coincided with a mortality of 22% of surveyed chicks in provided nests. Hot days did not affected prey delivery rates to the nestlings, suggesting that the die-off was due to chicks’ acute dehydration. Chick mortality was significantly higher amongst younger individuals. Within survivors, physiological costs of high temperatures significantly affected chick growth and body condition at fledging. Nest-site microclimate was influenced by nest-type and compass orientation: wooden nest-boxes attained the highest temperatures, exceeding 55°C when facing south, so explaining the recorded higher mortality, lower growth rates and lower fledging body condition among broods in these nests. Simulated scenarios of global warming with increasing occupation rate of artificial nests due to reductions in alternatives predicted a reduction in population growth rate. In the worst scenario, with a 100% occupancy of nest-boxes, the population growth would decline on average 7% per year. The impact of high temperatures on lesser kestrel breeding success highlights a need for actions to modify and research to adapt conservation efforts and future planning to account for climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We present an approach to analyze dispersal distance data. This approach allows one to take into account accuracy of the recorded dispersal distances. Three distributions were used, all assuming continuous space; a maximum likelihood approach was used for parameter estimation and model selection. Numerical simulations showed that our method is statistically consistent since it selected the correct model with increasing frequency when sample size increased. Ringing data on two species of tits (Parus caeruleus and Parus major) in Britain and Ireland were used to illustrate the potentialities of our method. In both species, adults dispersed significantly further than juveniles. The differences between species within an age-class were not statistically significant. In all species and age-classes, the model finally selected was the one assuming a heavy-tailed half-Cauchy distribution where long-distance dispersers are predicted to be more frequent than in the exponential model. The proposed methodology can potentially be applied to any organisms, and the model selection procedure can be used with any model of the distribution of dispersal distances (DDD). Several extensions are presented in the discussion, such as generalized linear modeling of the dispersal parameters, or interfacing with capture–recapture models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Humanity's impact on the environment is increasing, as are strategies to conserve biodiversity, but a lack of understanding about how interventions affect ecological and conservation outcomes hampers decision-making. Time series are often used to assess impacts, but ecologists tend to compare average values from before to after an impact; overlooking the potential for the intervention to elicit a change in trend. Without methods that allow for a range of responses, erroneous conclusions can be drawn, especially for large, multi-time-series datasets, which are increasingly available. Drawing on literature in other disciplines and pioneering work in ecology, we present a standardised framework to robustly assesses how interventions, like natural disasters or conservation policies, affect ecological time series. Ecologists have called for more robust studies on the impact of conservation interventions, or environmental shocks, on outcomes of interest, such as populations, habitat loss, or pressures. Time-series data are increasingly available and can, if appropriately analysed, allow such causal inferences. However, there are important pitfalls that make large-scale analyses involving multiple time series problematic. There has been progress in a range of fields, but the literature is fragmented and not all is easily accessible to ecologists. A framework is presented, with clear and consistent terminology, to support ecologists to conduct effective impact evaluation with time-series data. This will allow them to contribute to better-informed environmental management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract With the human population increasing there have been losses in biodiversity. A common feature of mankind is religious beliefs with various associated positive and negative consequences for biodiversity. Religion also has associated religious sites, many of which have a long history. The role of churches in benefitting biodiversity has not received attention. To examine the impact of churches we measured the taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity of birds around Christian churches and compared this with matched farmsteads. We surveyed 101 churches and equal number of farmsteads in villages of southern Poland. We measured structural and compositional characteristics (e.g. number of trees, shrubs, number of buildings and height) at both churches and farmsteads. General additive models, ordination and rarefactions methods were used in data analysis. Species richness, abundance and phylogenetic diversity were each higher at churches than at farmsteads. The species composition differed between building types but functional diversity was similar at both types of buildings. Bird species richness and abundance were correlated with the church's age. Previous studies showed village farmsteads supported high species diversity, thus our current findings that churches are richer show they may increase bird diversity in studied villages. We suggest that the green surroundings and tall towers create strong environmental gradient that enhances species richness, functional and phylogenetic diversity. There are over ten thousand churches in Poland, and similar places of worship are present in many religions, thus this habitat may be important for sustaining local taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic biodiversity in different global areas. Highlights • Sacred sites are common feature of many religions and may sustain biodiversity. • Christian churches are landmarks of rural landscape and are specifically managed. • Breeding birds were counted at village churches and compared to active farmsteads. • Species, abundance and phylogenetic diversity were higher at churches than elsewhere. • Churches may be important for conservation of local bird diversity in southern Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We identified emerging scientific, technological, and sociopolitical issues likely to affect how biological invasions are studied and managed over the next two decades. Issues were ranked according to their probability of emergence, pervasiveness, potential impact, and novelty. Top-ranked issues include the application of genomic modification tools to control invasions, effects of Arctic globalization on invasion risk in the Northern Hemisphere, commercial use of microbes to facilitate crop production, the emergence of invasive microbial pathogens, and the fate of intercontinental trade agreements. These diverse issues suggest an expanding interdisciplinary role for invasion science in biosecurity and ecosystem management, burgeoning applications of biotechnology in alien species detection and control, and new frontiers in the microbial ecology of invasions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poor communication between academic researchers and wildlife managers limits conservation progress and innovation. As a result, input from overlapping fields, such as animal behaviour, is underused in conservation management despite its demonstrated utility as a conservation tool and countless papers advocating its use. Communication and collaboration across these two disciplines are unlikely to improve without clearly identified management needs and demonstrable impacts of behavioural-based conservation management. To facilitate this process, a team of wildlife managers and animal behaviour researchers conducted a research prioritisation exercise, identifying 50 key questions that have great potential to resolve critical conservation and management problems. The resulting agenda highlights the diversity and extent of advances that both fields could achieve through collaboration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The voluntary non-monetary approach to conservation refers to actions that citizens or organizations could voluntarily implement in their area of influence without the incentive of monetary compensations. To be effectively implemented by untrained actors, actions should be clearly defined, straightforward to implement and not require specific scientific knowledge. The costs of actions should also be sufficiently affordable to be widely applied without monetary incentives. A voluntary non-monetary approach has so far not been clearly described as a distinct group of tools for nature conservation. Here we review the scarce scientific literature on the topic. To illustrate the applicability of a voluntary non-monetary approach to conservation, we then investigate its potential for farmland conservation. We considered a list of 119 actions available from “conservation-evidence”, a source of systematically collected evidence on effectiveness of conservation actions. Among 119 actions, 95 could be scored for feasibility of implementation, costs, and existence of evidence in UK, Spain and Finland. Sixteen to seventeen actions were potentially suitable for implementation by a voluntary non-monetary approach. This implies that the voluntary non-monetary approach could be widely applicable across many countries and environments. It is our hope that this study will represent a clarion call for conservation scientists to clearly recognize the voluntary non-monetary approach, its characteristics, and its potential for addressing conservation issues on private land. Adoption of such voluntary measures may be more dependent on encouragement (‘nudging’) than on the usual coercive or financial emphasis (‘shoving’). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]