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Purpose: Estimates of HIV prevalence, and how it changes over time, are needed to inform action (e.g., resource allocation) to improve HIV-related public health. However, creating adequate estimates of (diagnosed and undiagnosed) HIV prevalence is challenging due to biases in samples receiving HIV testing and due to difficulties enumerating key risk populations. To our knowledge, estimates of HIV prevalence among high risk heterosexuals in the United States produced for geographic areas smaller than the entire nation have to date been only for single years and/or for single cities (or other single geographic locations).Methods: The present study addresses these gaps by using multilevel modeling on multiple data series, in combination with previous estimates of HIV prevalence among heterosexuals from the extant literature, to produce annual estimates of HIV prevalence among high risk heterosexuals for each of 89 metropolitan statistical areas, from 1992 to 2013. It also produces estimates for these MSAs and years by racial/ethnic subgroup to allow for an examination of change over time in racial/ethnic disparities in HIV prevalence among high risk heterosexuals.Results: The resulting estimates suggest that HIV prevalence among high risk heterosexuals has decreased steadily, on average, from 1992 to 2013. Examination of these estimates by racial/ ethnic subgroup suggests that this trend is primarily due to decreases among Black and Hispanic/Latino high risk heterosexuals. HIV prevalence among white high risk heterosexuals remained steady over time at around 1% during the study period. Although HIV prevalence among Black and Hispanic/Latino high risk heterosexuals was much higher (approximately 3.5% and 3.3%, respectively) than that among whites in 1992, over time these differences decreased as HIV prevalence decreased over time among these subgroups. By 2013, HIV prevalence among Hispanic/Latino high risk heterosexuals was estimated to be very similar to that among white high risk heterosexuals (approximately 1%), with prevalence among Black high risk heterosexuals still estimated to be almost twice as high.Conclusions: It is likely that as HIV incidence has decreased among heterosexuals from 1992 to 2013, mortality due to all causes has remained disparately high among racial/ethnic minorities, thereby outpacing new HIV cases. Future research should aim to empirically examine this by comparing changes over time in estimated HIV incidence among heterosexuals to changes over time in mortality and causes of death among HIV-positive heterosexuals, by racial/ethnic subgroup. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Syringe exchange programs (SEPs) aim to reduce the harm associated with injection drug use (IDU). Although they have been accepted as critical components of HIV prevention in many parts of the world, they are often unwelcome and difficult to set up and maintain, even in communities hardest hit by IDU-related HIV transmission. This research examines socio-cultural and political processes that shape community and institutional resistance toward establishing and maintaining SEPs. These processes are configured and reinforced through the socio-spatial stigmatizing of IDUs, and legal and public policy against SEPs. Overarching themes the paper considers are: (1) institutional and/or political opposition based on (a) political and law enforcement issues associated with state drug paraphernalia laws and local syringe laws; (b) harassment of drug users and resistance to services for drug users by local politicians and police; and (c) state and local government (in)action or opposition; and (2) the stigmatization of drug users and location of SEPs in local neighborhoods and business districts. Rather than be explained by “not in my back yard” localism, this pattern seems best conceptualized as an “inequitable exclusion alliance” (IEA) that institutionalizes national and local stigmatizing of drug users and other vulnerable populations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Drawing upon the broader health, social, and political geography literature, this paper outlines a framework for considering place-based processes through which syringe exchange availability may be understood. It is argued that the geographic distribution of syringe exchange programs (SEPs) in the United States is linked to the social and political conditions of particular localities through three place characteristics: (1) structural constraints; (2) social and spatial distancing of injection drug users; and (3) localized action. Although SEPs remain controversial and face ongoing obstacles from the government, law enforcement and local communities, they continue to operate through the efforts of grassroots organizations and local activists. Action on this issue occurs locally, and the characteristics of place-based factors affect whether particular areas adopt SEPs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Purpose: The challenges of producing adequate estimates of HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) are well known. No one, to our knowledge, has published annual estimates of HIV prevalence among MSM over an extended period and across a wide range of geographic areas.Methods: This article applies multilevel modeling to data integrated from numerous sources to estimate and validate trajectories of HIV prevalence among MSM from 1992 to 2013 for 86 of the largest metropolitan statistical areas in the United States.Results: Our estimates indicate that HIV prevalence among MSM increased, from an across-metropolitan statistical area mean of 11% in 1992 to 20% in 2013 (S.D. = 3.5%). Our estimates by racial/ethnic subgroups of MSM suggest higher mean HIV prevalence among black and Hispanic/Latino MSM than among white MSM across all years and geographic regions.Conclusions: The increases found in HIV prevalence among all MSM are likely primarily attributable to decreases in mortality and perhaps also to increasing HIV incidence among racial/ethnic minority MSM. Future research is needed to confirm this. If true, health care initiatives should focus on targeted HIV prevention efforts among racial/ethnic minority MSM and on training providers to address cross-cutting health challenges of increased longevity among HIV-positive MSM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: After years of stable or declining HIV prevalence and declining incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the United States, some rapidly emerging outbreaks have recently occurred in new areas (e.g., Scott County, Indiana). However, to our knowledge, trends over time in HIV prevalence among PWID in US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) across all major regions of the country have not been systematically estimated beyond 2002, and the extent to which HIV prevalence may be increasing in other areas is largely unknown. This article estimates HIV prevalence among PWID in 89 of the most populated US MSAs, both overall and by geographic region, using more recent surveillance and HIV testing data.Methods: We computed MSA-specific annual estimates of HIV prevalence (both diagnosed and undiagnosed infections) among PWID for these 89 MSAs, for 1992-2013, using several data series from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) National HIV Surveillance System and National HIV Prevention Monitoring and Evaluation data; Holmberg's (1997) estimates of 1992 PWID population size and of HIV prevalence and incidence among PWID; and research estimates from published literature using 1992-2013 data. A mixed effects model, with time nested within MSAs, was used to regress the literature review estimates on all of the other data series. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. Resulting estimates were validated using previous 1992-2002 estimates of HIV prevalence and data on antiretroviral (ARV) prescription volumes and examined for patterns based on geographic region, numbers of people tested for HIV, and baseline HIV prevalence.Results: Mean (across all MSAs) trends over time suggested decreases through 2002 (from approximately 11.4% in 1992 to 9.2% in 2002), followed by a period of stability, and steep increases after 2010 (to 10.6% in 2013). Validation analyses found a moderate positive correlation between our estimates and ARV prescription volumes (r = 0.45), and a very strong positive correlation (r = 0.94) between our estimates and previous estimates by Tempalski et al. (2009) for 1992-2002 (which used different methods). Analysis by region and baseline prevalence suggested that mean increases in later years were largely driven by MSAs in the Western United States and by MSAs in the Midwest that had low baseline prevalence. Our estimates suggest that prevalence decreased across all years in the Eastern United States. These trends were particularly clear when MSAs with very low numbers of people tested for HIV were removed from analyses to reduce unexplained variability in mean trajectories.Conclusions: Our estimates suggest a fairly large degree of variation in 1992-2013 trajectories of PWID HIV prevalence among 89 US MSAs, particularly by geographic region. They suggest that public health responses in many MSAs (particularly those with larger HIV prevalence among PWID in the early 1990s) were sufficient to decrease or maintain HIV prevalence over time. However, future research should investigate potential factors driving the estimated increase in prevalence after 2002 MSAs in the West and Midwest. These findings have potentially important implications for program and/or policy decisions, but estimates for MSAs with low HIV testing denominators should be interpreted with caution and verified locally before planning action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose We estimated female and male incident AIDS diagnosis rates (IARs) among people who inject drugs (PWID) in U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) over time to assess whether declines in IARs varied by sex after combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) dissemination. Methods We compared IARs and 95% confidence intervals for female and male PWID in 95 of the most populous MSAs. To stabilize estimates, we aggregated data across three-year periods, selecting a period immediately preceding cART (1993–1995) and the most recent after the introduction of cART for which data were available (2005–2007). We assessed disparities by comparing IAR 95% confidence intervals for overlap, female-to-male risk ratios, and disparity change scores. Results IARs declined an average of 58% for female PWID and 67% for male PWID between the pre-cART and cART periods. Among female PWID, IARs were significantly lower in the later period relative to the pre-cART period in 48% of MSAs. Among male PWID, IARs were significantly lower over time in 86% of MSAs. Conclusions IARs among female PWID in large U.S. MSAs have declined more slowly than among male PWID. This suggests a need for increased targeting of prevention and treatment programs and for research on MSA level conditions that may drive differences in declining AIDS rates among female and male PWID. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Purpose: We focus on a little-researched issue—how human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemics and programs in key populations in metropolitan areas affect epidemics in other key populations. We consider (1) How are earlier epidemics among people who inject drugs (PWID) and men who have sex with men (MSM) related to later AIDS incidence and mortality among heterosexuals?; (2) Were prevention programs targeting PWID or MSM associated with lower AIDS incidence and mortality among heterosexuals?; and (3) Was the size of the potential bridge population of noninjecting drug users (NIDUs) in a metropolitan area associated with later AIDS incidence and mortality among heterosexuals? Methods: Using data for 96 large U.S. metropolitan areas, Poisson regression assessed associations of population prevalences of HIV-infected PWID and MSM (1992); NIDU population prevalence (1992–1994); drug use treatment coverage for PWID (1993); HIV counseling and testing coverage for MSM and for PWID (1992); and syringe exchange presence (2000) with CDC data on AIDS incidence and mortality among heterosexuals in 2006–2008, with appropriate socioeconomic controls. Results: Population density of HIV+ PWID and of NIDUs were positively related, and prevention programs for PWID negatively related to later AIDS incidence among heterosexuals and later mortality among heterosexuals living with AIDS. HIV+ MSM population density and prevention programs for MSM were not associated with these outcomes. Conclusions: Efforts to reduce HIV transmission among PWID and NIDUs may reduce AIDS and AIDS-related mortality among heterosexuals. More research is needed at metropolitan area, network, and individual levels into HIV bridging across key populations and how interventions in one key population affect HIV epidemics in other key populations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Drug-related law enforcement activities may undermine the protective effects of syringe exchange programs (SEPs) on local injectors'' risk of injection-related infections. We explored the spatial overlap of drug-related arrest rates and access to SEPs over time (1995–2006) in New York City health districts, and used multilevel models to investigate the relationship of these two district-level exposures to the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe. Districts with better SEP access had higher arrest rates, and arrest rates undermined SEPs'' protective relationship with unsterile injecting. Drug-related enforcement strategies targeting drug users should be de-emphasized in areas surrounding SEPs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Purpose: Because blacks and Latinos bear a disproportionate burden of injection-related health problems compared with whites, we sought to describe black/white and Latino/white disparities in injecting drugs in 94 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 1998. Methods: Using US Census data and three databases documenting injectors'' use of different healthcare services (drug treatment, HIV counseling and testing, and AIDS diagnoses), we calculated database-specific black/white and Latino/white disparities in injecting in each MSA and created an index of black/white and Latino/white disparities by averaging data across the three databases. Results: The median black/white injecting disparity in the MSAs ranged from 1.4 to 3.7 across the three databases; corresponding median Latino/white injecting disparities ranged from 1.0 to 1.1. Median black/white and Latino/white index disparity values were 2.6 and 1.0, respectively. Conclusions: Although whites were the majority of injectors in most MSAs, database-specific and index black/white disparity scores indicate that blacks were more likely to inject than whites. While database-specific and index disparity scores indicate that Latinos and whites had similar injecting rates, they also revealed considerable variation in disparities across MSAs. Future research should investigate these disparities'' causes, including racial/ethnic inequality and discrimination, and study their contributions to the disproportionate burden of injection-related health problems borne by blacks and Latinos. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: City-specific studies have suggested the quality of the local environment and economic circumstances are associated with greater risk of injection drug use (IDU). No studies have assessed the relation among the quality of the local environment, economic circumstances, and IDU over time across US metropolitan areas. Annual numbers of IDUs in the 88 largest US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) were estimated by extrapolating, adjusting, and allocating existing estimates using various data sources. Generalized estimating equations were used to assess the relation among the quality of the local environment, metropolitan political economy, and IDU prevalence using lagged models taking into account potential confounders. MSAs with a worse local environment (measured as a one standard deviation difference) had a greater risk of IDU (relative risk [RR]=1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01, 1.06); similarly, a one-percentage point worsening of the political economy for an MSA was associated with greater risk of IDU (RR=1.04–1.10). Final models stratified by region indicated heterogeneity of effect by region whereby the quality of the local environment was associated with IDU strongest in the South (RR=1.12, CI: 1.05, 1.12) followed by the West (RR=1.04, CI: 1.01, 1.07) and Midwest (RR=1.03, CI: 1.00, 1.06), and the metropolitan political economy was associated with IDU in the West (RR=1.03–1.09) and Northeast (RR=1.04–1.12). Our results underscore the importance of sociopolitical factors as determinants of IDU in MSAs. Structural solutions targeted at improving environmental conditions and economic circumstances should be considered as drug use interventions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We developed regression equations to predict fine particulate matter (PM2. 5) at air monitoring locations in the New York City region using data on nearby traffic and land use patterns. Three-year averages (1999–2001) of PM2. 5 at US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) monitors in the 28 counties including and surrounding New York City were calculated using daily data from the EPA''s Air Quality Subsystem. As the secondary contribution to PM2. 5 concentrations is lowest in the winter, we also calculated and modeled average winter 2000 PM2. 5 to conduct a preliminary evaluation of model sensitivity to source contribution. Candidate predictor variables included traffic, land use, census and emissions data from local, state and national sources and were tabulated for a series of circular buffer regions at varying distances around the monitors using a geographic information system. In total, more than 25 variables at 5 different buffer distances were considered for inclusion in the model. Before evaluating the variables we removed several samples from the modeling for validation. For comparison and validation purposes we computed both a model using data for the full 28-county region as well as a more urbanized 9-county region. We found that traffic within a buffer of 300 or 500m explains the greatest proportion of variance (37–44%) in all 3 models. Measures of urbanization, specifically population density, explain a significant amount of the residual variation (7–18%) after including a traffic variable. Finally, a measure of industrial land use further improves the 28-county and 9-county models based on the 3-yr annual averages, explaining an additional 4% and 11% of the variation, respectively, while vegetative land use improves the winter model explaining an additional 6%. The final models predicted well at validation locations. In total, the final land use regression models explain between 61% and 64% of the variation in PM2. 5. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Purpose: To assess cross-population linkages in HIV/AIDS epidemics, we tested the hypothesis that the number of newly diagnosed AIDS cases among Black people who inject drugs (PWID) was positively related to the natural log of the rate of newly diagnosed HIV infections among Black non-PWID heterosexuals in 84 large U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 2008-2016.Methods: We estimated a multilevel model centering the time-varying continuous exposures at baseline between the independent (Black PWID AIDS rates) and dependent (HIV diagnoses rate among Black heterosexuals) variables.Results: At MSA level, baseline (standardized β = 0.12) Black PWID AIDS rates and change in these rates over time (standardized β = 0.11) were positively associated with the log of new HIV diagnoses rates among Black heterosexuals. Thus, MSAs with Black PWID AIDS rates that were 1 standard deviation= higher at baseline also had rates of newly diagnosed HIV infections among Black non-PWID heterosexuals that were 10.3% higher. A 1 standard deviation increase in independent variable over time corresponded to a 7.8% increase in dependent variable.Conclusions: Black PWID AIDS rates may predict HIV rates among non-PWID Black heterosexuals. Effective HIV programming may be predicated, in part, on addressing intertwining of HIV epidemics across populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Investigate whether characteristics of geographic areas are associated with condomless sex and injection-related risk behavior among racial/ethnic groups of people who inject drugs (PWID) in the United States.Methods: PWID were recruited from 19 metropolitan statistical areas for 2009 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance. Administrative data described ZIP codes, counties, and metropolitan statistical areas where PWID lived. Multilevel models, stratified by racial/ethnic groups, were used to assess relationships of place-based characteristics to condomless sex and injection-related risk behavior (sharing injection equipment).Results: Among black PWID, living in the South (vs. Northeast) was associated with injection-related risk behavior (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.21-4.17; P = .011), and living in counties with higher percentages of unaffordable rental housing was associated with condomless sex (AOR = 1.02, 95% CI = 1.00-1.04; P = .046). Among white PWID, living in ZIP codes with greater access to drug treatment was negatively associated with condomless sex (AOR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.88-1.00; P = .038).Conclusions: Policies that increase access to affordable housing and drug treatment may make environments more conducive to safe sexual behaviors among black and white PWID. Future research designed to longitudinally explore the association between residence in the south and injection-related risk behavior might identify specific place-based features that sustain patterns of injection-related risk behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]