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Theory of Change (ToC) is widely used as a tool to support strategic planning, monitoring, and evaluation in many fields, especially for social and environmental programs. However, there is still limited documented experience with the application and use of ToC in a research context. CGIAR, a global network of 15 centers conducting international research-for-development, included a standardized ToC approach in a recent round of developing 32 large research Initiatives. This unique experience offers an ideal opportunity to learn from organization-scale ToC implementation and use. The paper provides an overview of research-for-development challenges and ToC concepts and a brief history of ToC use in CGIAR. We describe the application of ToC in this recent case and then assess strengths and weaknesses of the process and the ToCs developed as part of the Initiative proposals. CGIAR made important advances in standardizing ToC concepts and terminology, tools, and guidance, and in integrating ToC into annual reporting and evaluation. Nevertheless, many of the ToCs were insufficiently clear and specific, with substantial scope for further improvement. This is due in part to the rushed and decentralized proposal development process, undertaken during pandemic restrictions, but also reflects different mental-models of research-for-development processes and gaps in understanding and capacity. Recommendations to improve development and use of ToC include capacity development in conceptualizing research impact pathways, ensuring that research design teams have a dedicated M&E specialist paying particular attention to ToCs, improved ToC templates, and better accountability for ToC development and use over the life of a program. • Theory of change (ToC) supports planning and managing research-for-development. • Efforts to mainstream ToC generated valuable concepts and institutional mechanisms. • Novel criteria to assess ToCs are presented. • First-round ToCs were insufficiently clear and specific, and inconsistent. • Further advance requires emphasis on research users, capacity, and accountability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the effects of structural adjustment policies (SAP) on the environment and farmers in Bolivia. Impact of SAP on poverty and migration to the agricultural frontier; Costs and benefits of soybean and timber expansion; Alternative policies that the government may implement.

Assesses the informal potato seed systems of small-scale farmers in the highlands of Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador and the strategies of the national seed projects. Why are informal seed systems important in the Andes; Arguments for linking the formal and informal systems; Details on informal systems.

The development and scaling of orange-fleshed sweetpotato (OFSP) during the past 25 years is a case study of a disruptive innovation to address a pressing need – the high levels of vitamin A deficiency among children under five years of age in sub-Saharan Africa. When the innovation was introduced consumers strongly preferred white or yellow-fleshed sweetpotato, so it was necessary to create a demand to respond to that need. This was at odds with the breeding strategy of responding to consumers' demands. Additional elements of the innovation package include seed systems and nutrition education to create the awareness amongst consumers of the significant health benefits of OFSP. Complementary innovation is required in promotion and advocacy to ensure a supportive institutional environment. Four dimensions-- technical, organizational, leadership, and institutional environment-- are explored across five distinct phases of the innovation process, from the emergence of the innovative idea (1991–1996) through scaling phase in 15 countries under a major institutional innovation (2015-mid-2019), the Sweetpotato for Profit and Health Initiative (SPHI). Systematically gathering evidence of nutritional impact and ability to scale cost-effectively was requisite for obtaining support for further development and diffusion of the crop. Positive findings from a major study coincided with a major change in the institutional environment which placed agriculture and nutrition at the forefront of the development agenda, resulting in an inflection point in both research and diffusion investment. The role of committed leadership during all phases was critical for success, but particularly during the first decade of limited support in a challenging institutional environment. The most critical technical achievement underpinning scaling was moving from 2 to 13 African countries having local breeding programs. Evidence is presented that adapted, well performing varieties which consumers prefer is the foundation for successful scaling to occur. Building a cadre of within country and regional advocates was critical for getting sustained commitment and local buy-in to the concept of biofortification by regional bodies and governments, which in turn built within country ownership and the willingness of donors to invest. The SPHI united diverse organizations under a common vision with a simple metric--- the number of households reached with improved varieties of sweetpotato. Since 2009, 6.2 million households were reached by July 2019 in 15 SSA countries. Much more remains to be done. Advocacy efforts led to the integration of nutritious foods into many national and regional policies, setting the stage for further investment. • Vitamin A-rich, orange-fleshed sweetpotato is the lead biofortified crop in Africa. • OFSP was a disruptive innovation as non-OFSP types were demanded before. • Committed leadership for innovation for over 20 years was critical for scaling. • A strong evidence base was requisite for obtaining donor support for scaling. • Partner initiative for scaling united diverse organizations with a common vision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Innovations to improve staple crop germplasm can reduce poverty and otherwise improve farmer livelihoods through complex and multiple pathways. This paper reviews the evidence for one prominent pathway—through increased incomes (in cash and kind) for poor farmers who adopt the technology. An important determinant of poverty reduction is the ability of poor producers to adopt productivity-enhancing varieties, and the paper analyzes recent household-level data from two African countries to examine if poor producers face unique barriers to adoption. A second determinant of poverty reduction is the area available to plant these varieties and whether the intensity of adoption is great enough to significantly reduce poverty. The paper uses a double-hurdle estimation framework to model the adoption/area planted joint decision for maize farmers in Ethiopia and sweet potato farmers in Uganda. The focus of the analysis is the effect of poverty-related variables on adoption/area planted decisions. Farmer wealth, landholding, education, location, and access to support and information services are included to understand how correlates of poverty affect adoption decisions. We find evidence that landholding size is an important barrier to poverty reduction; poor farmers are able to adopt improved varieties, but their intensity is constrained by land availability. In Uganda, farmers at the 95th percentile of adoption area received about $0.13 per person per day from the incremental yield, covering < 50% of the mean household poverty gap. This gain only comes under optimistic assumptions and most adopters do not have sufficient area for the direct income effect to be large. The evidence suggests that direct, short-term impacts of increased productivity to increased income may be limited in magnitude. Nonetheless, we recognize that other, less direct pathways may be important, particularly over longer times. Impacts through indirect pathways are, however, more difficult to measure. This has implications for the design of M&E and the crafting of appropriate targets for outcomes of research on staple crops which should focus perhaps on the other pathways where poverty reduction is more probable. Highlights • Pathway from staple crop research to poverty reduction identified • Ability to adopt, intensity of adoption and productivity gains determine poverty reduction potential of new germplasm. • Poor farmers are generally able to adopt. • Intensity of adoption by poor farmers limits direct poverty-reducing effects. • Other pathways may be critical to poverty reduction effects of new germplasm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding research collaboration in diverse scientific communities is key to building global agricultural research systems that support the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Characterizing collaboration patterns can inform decisions to enhance the structure and dynamics of research programs. We introduce a new analytic framework for evaluating collaborative research networks based on scientific publications, and an associated conceptual framework for the role of research networks in achieving societal goals. We analyzed two CGIAR Research Programs: Grain Legumes and Dryland Cereals (GLDC) and Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB). The analysis provides a multi-dimensional perspective on a set of key questions related to research team composition, research management structures, and performance of scientific publications. We quantified network structures of research collaborations at the level of authors, institutions, countries, and management structures, including use of temporal exponential random graph models. We used regression models to understand the associations between the characteristics of authors and publications, and the corresponding citation rates and Altmetric Attention Scores. We identified key network hubs in the collaboration networks of both CGIAR programs. The proportion of women as authors in publications was less than a third, with a low likelihood of co-authorship between women. Institutional hubs were identified by institutional categories; these were often institutions that are considered CGIAR program "participants", and a few were "planning partners". For both GLDC and RTB, the countries that were the focus of most research coincided with the program's priority countries. Most international collaborations occurred between institutions headquartered in Global South countries, but most intercontinental collaborations occurred between Global South and Global North countries. Most institution and author co-authorships occurred in only one year and rarely lasted two or three consecutive years. High diversity in the geographic affiliations of authors, along with highly collaborative teams, as opposed to simply the number of authors, consistently were associated with more citations and higher Altmetric Attention Scores. These analyses reveal key structures in research collaboration networks in GLDC and RTB research programs, with potential to guide agricultural research systems for sustainable development. Considering these outcomes from past research management can help scientists, program managers, and funders increase the success of new research projects. Specifically, future research management strategies need to fortify existing scientific capacity and development through gender parity and balanced international collaborations, working toward more impactful publications and increased development relevance, while team size increases over time. [Display omitted] • The structure and impact of collaboration networks in agriculture for development are key to research success. • We apply a new framework for evaluating the success of collaboration networks to two global research programs of the CGIAR. • Publications had strong international and institutional collaboration but less than a third of authors were women. • Publication traits such as geographically diverse author affiliations were associated with more citations. • These findings about scientific capacities and gaps support steps to research success in agricultural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This Editorial to the Special Issue "Science of Scaling: connecting the pathways of agricultural research and development for improved food, income and nutrition security" presents the framing, overview and analysis of 10 articles focussed on scaling innovation in the agricultural research for development sector. The publications cut across three categories that focus on: (i) Understanding the scaling trajectory retrospectively from a longer term, systems perspective, (ii) Understanding scaling of innovation retrospectively as part of shorter term agricultural research for development interventions, and (iii) Conceptual or methodological approaches aimed at guiding scaling prospectively. Cross-cutting review of the publications leads to several insights and critically questions dominant ways of understanding and guiding scaling of innovation in the agricultural research for development sector. This provides a starting point for proposing more outcome-oriented scaling as a third wave of understanding and guiding scaling, beyond technology adoption (first wave) and the scaling of innovation (second wave). The Editorial proposes three Research Domains for the Science of Scaling: (1) 'Understand the big picture of scaling innovation' that can inform more realistic ideas about the factors, conditions and dynamics that affect innovation and scaling processes; (2) 'Develop instruments that nurture efficient and responsible scaling' that comprises new approaches, concepts and tools that can facilitate the development of evidence-based scaling strategies; and (3) 'Create a conducive environment for scaling innovation' that focusses on the institutional arrangements, partnership models, and monitoring and learning for scaling of innovation. Unlabelled Image • Scaling of innovation is increasingly important in the world of AR4D. • Science of Scaling supports retrospective understanding of scaling trajectories. • Science of Scaling guides the practice of scaling prospectively. • Three Research Domains are proposed for the Science of Scaling. • Science of Scaling requires more investment to achieve the SDGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the significance of climate change impacts on farming communities, large investments are made by research and development actors, including farmers themselves, to adapt agricultural systems. A data-driven approach is required to guide these investments and maximize their impact. In the African Great Lakes Region (GLR), root, tuber and banana (RT&B) crops are a vital component of smallholder farming systems, but little is known about strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on these crops. The objective of this study was to develop a spatial prioritisation and targeting framework based on the risk of climate-related impacts to guide research investments and prioritisation in CSA for RT&B crops in the GLR. Climate change impact data on crop suitability were layered onto other spatially-explicit biophysical and socio-economic data to map clusters of homologous regions, called socio-agroeocological homologues (SAHs). The SAHs were defined by the risk of climate-related impacts, resulting from the interaction of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The framework was applied to RT&B crops (banana, potato, cassava and sweetpotato) in the African GLR. Its utility was illustrated by elaborating adaptation scenarios for selected SAHs of one long-duration (banana) and one short-duration (potato) RT&B crop. Four SAHs were identified for banana, potato and sweetpotato and five for cassava. For each crop, SAHs were prioritised for investment in climate change adaptation based on the level of risk of climate-related impacts. Scenario analysis showed that the introduction of drought-tolerant varieties would increase suitability for banana from 0.30 to 0.47 under baseline conditions and from 0.54 to 0.71 under future climates in a prioritised SAH with low to moderate suitability for typical varieties. For potato, the introduction of heat-tolerant genotypes, intercropping with legumes or the combination of both would allow compensating negative impacts of climate change on crop suitability in two SAHs representing important mid-altitude potato growing areas, from an average of −0.19 and −0.16 to an average of up to +0.25 and + 0.15 respectively. Scaling approaches should consider the difference in socio-economic conditions between the two SAHs. We envision the framework to be useful for a diverse range of users throughout the innovation and scaling continuum to understand where climate change impacts are expected to be most severe, what type of innovations are needed to help farmers adapt, and how these innovations should be scaled to enable uptake by considering socio-economic drivers of adoption. [Display omitted] • Dta-driven approach to guide climate change adaptation for root, tuber and banana crops in the African Great Lakes Region • Clusters of homologous regions (SAHs), defined by the risk of climate-related impacts, were developed • Four SAHs were identified for each of banana, potato and sweetpotato and five for cassava. • The potential of genetic and agronomic innovations for mitigating impacts in prioritised SAHs was demonstrated • Spatial framework to prioritise and target interventions throughout the innovation and scaling continuum [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Papa Andina network employs collective action in two novel approaches for fostering market chain innovation. The participatory market chain approach (PMCA) and stakeholder platforms engage small potato producers together with market agents and agricultural service providers in group activities to identify common interests, share market knowledge and develop new business opportunities. These forms of collective action have generated commercial, technological and institutional innovations, and created new market niches for Andean native potatoes grown by poor farmers in remote highland areas. These innovations have benefited small farmers as well as other market chain actors. This paper describes Papa Andina’s experiences with collective action for market chain innovation. It then discusses the implications of these experiences for the understanding of collective action and the policy implications for research and development organizations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change is projected to negatively impact food systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. The magnitude of these impacts is expected to be amplified by the extensive reliance on rainfed agriculture and the prevalence of subsistence farming. In the Great Lakes Region of Central Africa, smallholder farming households are largely dependent on root, tuber and banana crops. However, the potential impacts of various climate change scenarios on these crops are not well reported. Yet, data-rich insights about the future impacts of climate change on these crops and the adaptive capacity of food systems in the Great Lakes Region is critical to inform research and development investments towards regional climate change adaptation. We aimed to gain insights of potential impacts of climate change on root, tuber, and banana crops in the Great Lakes Region, specifically investigating changes to localised crop suitability, planting dates, and identifying potential 'climate-proof' variety types of each crop for specific geographies. We developed a modified version of the EcoCrop model to analyse the suitability of future climates for four key root, tuber, and banana crops (banana, cassava, potato, and sweetpotato) and a suite of varieties for each (typical, heat-tolerant, drought-tolerant, and early maturing). The model considers only the direct impacts of climate change on crop suitability. It does not consider how climate change impacts crop suitability by affecting the occurrence of extreme weather events or indirect effects on incidence and severity of pest and disease outbreaks. Our results demonstrate that climate change will be somewhat favourable to root, tuber, and banana-based systems, with only widespread negative impacts seen for potato. These changes should be qualified by the observation that in most cases the environmental suitability for banana, cassava, and sweetpotato will remain constant or improve if farmers shift planting schedules. Location- and crop-dependent shifts to different variety types were found to be effective in improving suitability under future climates. Data driven insights generated from this work can be used as a first step in developing spatially explicit recommendations for both farmers and decision-makers on how to adapt to climate change and plan investment in the research needed to adapt root, tuber, and banana-based livelihoods and systems to those long-term changes. [Display omitted] • Root, tuber and banana (RT&B) systems are prevalent in Central Africa, yet there is limited knowledge of climate change impacts on these systems. • Adapted version of EcoCrop model generated insights on how future climates may affect the suitability of Central African RT&B systems. • Study analysed RT&B crop and variety suitability, shifts in planting date, and identified implications for future research. • Climate change will marginally favour RT&B crops, except potato. Planting date shifts and variety selection could ensure future suitability. • Data-driven insights generated from this work can be a first step in developing spatially explicit recommendations across distinct timeframes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scaling of innovations is a key requirement for addressing societal challenges in sectors such as health, agriculture, and the environment. Research for development (R4D) programs, projects and other interventions struggle to make particular innovations go to scale. Current conceptualizations of scaling are often too simplistic; more systemic and multidimensional perspectives, frameworks and measures are needed. There is a gap between new complexity-aware theories and perspectives on innovation, and tools and approaches that can improve strategic and operational decision-making in R4D interventions that aim to scale innovations. This paper aims to bridge that gap by developing the key concepts and measures of Scaling Readiness. Scaling Readiness is an approach that encourages critical reflection on how ready innovations are for scaling and what appropriate actions could accelerate or enhance scaling. Scaling Readiness provides action-oriented support for (1) characterizing the innovation and innovation system; (2) diagnosing the current readiness and use of innovations as a proxy for their readiness to scale; (3) developing strategy to overcome bottlenecks for scaling; (4) facilitating and negotiating multi-stakeholder innovation and scaling processes; and (5) navigating and monitoring the implementation process to allow for adaptive management. Scaling Readiness has the potential to support evidence-based scaling strategy design, implementation and monitoring, and – if applied across multiple interventions – can be used to manage a portfolio of innovation and scaling investments. • Scaling of innovation to achieve impact requires systems approaches. • There is need to translate systems theory into action-oriented decision support. • Performance management of innovation and scaling processes is key in R4D. • Scaling Readiness offers a stepwise process to develop scaling strategies. • Scaling Readiness can monitor a portfolio of innovation and scaling investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]