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China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a strategic economic project to enhance economic connectivity between Pakistan and China. We estimate the impact of CPEC related economic activities on overall energy consumption and its saving potential for Pakistan by 2030. Johansen cointegration is employed to evaluate the long run relationship between energy consumption and its determinants at aggregate and sectoral levels and forecast future energy demand using scenario analysis. Baseline scenario results indicate that aggregate energy consumption will approximately be 41% higher in 2030 compared to 2013 levels. Energy consumption in industrial and commercial sectors in 2030 will increase by 136% and 414% under baseline scenario. The Monte Carlo Simulations incorporating future uncertainty support the scenario analysis results. Energy saving potential suggests that energy conservation should be part of overall energy policies and sector specific energy intensity targets should be implemented to harness the energy saving potential. • China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is important for Pakistani economy. • Study evaluates the impact of CPEC activities on energy consumption. • Energy consumption will increase 41% by 2030. • Commercial consumption will increase 414% and industrial 136%. • Energy saving potential needs to be realized with better energy policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Availability of gaseous alternatives enhances the diversification of fuel choices for the road transport sector in a country. Additionally, these fuels being environment-friendly may also contribute to the sustainable development. Pakistan has a number of gaseous fuels available for the road transport sector with a varying level of economic, environmental and social significance. It is still required to study the suitability of these gaseous resources from different perspectives. This paper utilizes a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis approach based on Analytical Hierarchy Process for evaluating the three gaseous alternatives namely Compressed Natural Gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas and Liquefied Natural Gas. Initially, four main criteria, technical, economic, environmental and social aspects and eleven sub-criteria were identified from a comprehensive literature review. Then an appropriate decision model was formulated consisting of goals, criteria, sub-criteria and alternatives. The empirical data for criteria was collected from various government and academic sources. The results revealed Compressed Natural Gas as a most favorable fuel choice for the road transport sector of Pakistan. Besides the ranking and prioritization of three fuel technologies, the results of the proposed decision framework are significant for formulating a policy on the usage of different fuels in the transportation sector of Pakistan. Highlights • Three gaseous alternatives CNG, LPG and LNG are evaluated. • MCDM and AHP are utilized for evaluating. • Analysis reveals that CNG is more suitable. • Its technical, economic, social and environmental acceptability favors it as an alternative fuel. • Provision of CNG to road transport from local production and cross-border trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With substantial decrease in the cost of renewable energy technologies (RETs), governments around the world stepped up efforts to transform the ways energy is produced, and the manners it is consumed. Focusing on attainment of SDG-7 through clean energy transition, the aim has been to achieve energy security as well as energy equity while reducing dependence on energy imports. Although ongoing technological breakthroughs and maturity offers promising opportunities, many developing nations are grappling with intertwined socioeconomic dynamics and policy prioritization. Under the resource-constrained financial situation, Government of Pakistan adopted prosumers' approach to harness year-round available solar energy. Regulatory measures were accordingly instituted, and the electricity distribution companies (DISCOs) were instructed to facilitate people in becoming prosumers. The adoption rates were however well short of the desired outcomes. Besides cultural and socioeconomic dynamics, human interaction with technology, and their level of awareness about related policy parameters play critical role in the technology adoption. In part, this realization led Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) Pakistan to conduct a survey on the consumers' willingness for taking up the prosumers' role and, on the parameters contributing to their decision e.g., economic conditions, energy quality and reliability, relevant government policies, and their level of awareness about going solar. Utilizing data from the IPS survey, this study explored the linkage between consumers' inclination to install solar energy systems and their awareness about solar photovoltaics (PV) technology, the cost factor and relevant government policies. The study revealed significant correlation between target populace's awareness level and their willingness to become prosumers, highlighting the need for taking policy measures to enhance public awareness on relevant aspects of roof-top solar (RTS) for their due contribution towards sustainable energy solutions in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The power sector of Pakistan has undergone a substantial, yet protracted power sector reform program in 1992. Under this program, the government allowed participation of Independent Power Producers (IPPs), followed by the breakup of the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) into various entities and the establishment of power sector regulatory authority, namely NEPRA in 1997. The power sector reforms in Pakistan have not been evaluated sufficiently to determine the actual costs and benefits incurred by different segments of the society, to correct the path of upcoming reforms. This study attempts to investigate the socio-economic impacts of restructuring of WAPDA's generation segment and private sector participation in the electricity generation sector of Pakistan by using a social cost-benefit analysis approach. The study has analyzed the impacts of reforms on government, private sector, and consumers (domestic, commercial, industrial and agriculture) of the power sector. The results have shown that the main benefit of private sector participation came from the timely expansion of generation capacity. However, environmental and electricity generation costs became exorbitant after power sector reforms. Consumers and government remained net losers, while IPPs were winners in the process of restructuring and privatization. This paper concludes that power generation sector reforms with private sector participation have impacted the overall social welfare adversely. It further concludes that had regulation been scrupulous with adequate supportive role of government with social obligations, consumers and government could have benefited from restructuring and privatization of the power sector generation sector in Pakistan. • Power sector of Pakistan is going through reforms. • Reforms need to evaluate its costs and benefits. • Social cost-benefit analysis utilized. • Private sector gained from the reforms and social costs were higher. • Need for a better structure for the future reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity generation in Pakistan heavily relies on imported fossil fuels. The import of such fuels is a huge financial burden on the national exchequer. Studies focusing on the costs and benefits of the renewable resources for power generation lack environmental and externality costs estimation which makes the Business as Usual scenario as a least cost option in Pakistan. This paper compares five supply side scenarios to find the best competitor of Business as Usual scenario and technically tries to increase the share of renewable resources in electricity generation. It uses electricity sector of Pakistan as a case study and forecast electricity demand in all the sectors. The hypothesis is what will be the savings in cost and what would be the environmental benefits for progressing in alternative pathways. This hypothesis is designed to find the best policy decision for increasing the share of renewable in energy mix of Pakistan. LEAP framework is used to test the hypothesis. The study findings suggest that the electricity generation from Business as Usual scenario is five times expensive than the solar, wind and hydel scenarios. Therefore, the energy planners of Pakistan in particular and the developing countries in general should incentivize electricity generation from renewable resources to increase their penetration. • Electricity demand analysis. • Scenario based electricity generation. • Hypothetic assessment for increasing renewable share. • Comparison of renewable scenarios with others. • Environmental emissions assessment with costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Bilateral transactions hedge against uncertain price risks of day-ahead auction. • Direct-search bilateral transactions are more challenging than brokered deals. • Novel matchmaking algorithm enables direct-search bilateral transactions. • Portfolio optimization needs to simultaneously maximize returns and minimize risks. Matchmaking and bilateral negotiations are two distinct phases of practical market participants' decision making for bilateral transactions. Agent-based models are naturally suitable for electricity markets in general and bilateral transactions in particular. This paper's contribution includes development of a novel matchmaking model that generates forward contracting power and utility curves. The matchmaking model enables a load serving entity agent to undertake its own matchmaking, to find optimal trading allocations over a range of prices, before engaging in bilateral negotiations with generation company agents. Open-source agent-based simulation platform allows combined simulation of bilateral transactions and day-ahead auction. In this research paper, matchmaking is achieved by direct-search without any organized bulletin board, broker, or matchmaker. Instead of random matchmaking, portfolio optimization based matchmaking systematically explores available electricity trading options throughout the market: local and non-local bilateral trades as well as day-ahead auctions. The matchmaking algorithm is unique because it scans all trading options over the entire range of negotiable prices. Depending on private profit-seeking goals, risk-aversion preferences and market price statistics, each load serving entity agent individually finds its matchmaking results. A set of case studies demonstrates how matchmaking model depends on transmission rights and performs for different risk aversion factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The crisis in electricity generation sector of Pakistan is causing load shedding. All sectors including household-domestic, commercial and industrial activities get severely affected by such power outages which could be minimized by adopting modern technologies such as solar PV. The use of solar PV system in many countries has become a promising solution to meet energy needs but in Pakistan its usage at household level still remains largely untapped despite huge potential. This study identifies the determinants that influence the household's decisions regarding solar PV adoption in Lahore, Pakistan. For this, initially, a generic list of significant determinants was extracted from literature. Later, detailed interviews (based on persuasion attributes of Roger's theory of Innovation Diffusion) of both adopters and non-adopters of solar PV system were conducted at household level to rank the determinants on the basis of their significance in solar PV adoption decision. The household's adoption of solar PV system faced many barriers regardless of the fact that it exceeds in advantages as compared to other conventional sources of electricity. The cost of solar PV system appeared to be the most significant barrier in the diffusion of solar PV system. Additionally, the absence of adequate financial support by government for the installation of small solar PV systems at household level further intensified the adoption decisions. Other important barriers included difficulty of using all appliances at the same time and shortage of reliable vendors as well the technicians. While, environment friendly feature of solar PV system along with its availability in local market appeared as significant driver of diffusion at household level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The power sector of Pakistan has undergone major reforms since 1994 with the objectives of increasing technical and financial performance of the sector. This study estimates and analyzes post reforms efficiency dynamics of electric distribution utilities from 2006 to 2013. Fixed effects stochastic frontier analysis results indicate that technical efficiency of utilities increased by 4.8 percent. However, total factor productivity experienced a negative growth of 11 percent as all components of index remained negative except for efficiency change. Productivity of electric distribution utilities can be enhanced by adjusting their scales of operation and reducing their size through further horizontal separation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-term power planning at the regional level has recently gained significance due to the economic and efficiency competitiveness of a decentralized energy system. In Pakistan, the power sector faces the challenge of exceptionally increasing electricity demand in metropolitan areas and the urgency of reliable power access in rural areas. In this paper, a regional power-generation system of GB is developed using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning) model from 2016 to 2050, to explore future clean pathways to understand the planning and operational implications of futuristic variable renewables (VRE) and best available technologies (BAT). The regional power system model is further expanded by using the end-user and econometric approaches to construct five scenarios which include Business-As-Usual (BAU), BAU-OPT (BAU-optimization), Demand Side Management (DSM), DSM-OPT, and National Energy Mix (NEM). The model estimates the electricity demand projection of 3.2 TWh in 2050, at an annual average growth rate of 3.19%, and suggests that hydropower is the most dominant variable renewable source in GB's electric power system. The adoption of the BAT would avoid 1.34 TWh or about 41% of the projected electricity consumption, which shows the maximum potential of energy efficiency measures in GB. Moreover, the results indicate that: i) home appliances and lighting account for nearly halved of the reduction potential; while lighting and cooking are the most cost effective measures in terms of energy saving at regional level; ii) least cost constraint displays the transition towards large scale renewable projects; iii) the penetration of small scale renewable project is nearly doubled under least cost constraint by the introduction of demand side measures; and iv) higher emission penalties aggressively shift energy mix toward renewables with the cost of annual environmental externalities reducing in long-term. Overall, these findings can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of regional power-generation systems, as well as co-benefits of penetration of VRE and BAT in low-carbon electric power regions. • RE-EEM (Renewable Energy-Energy Efficiency Measures) interactions are modeled for power sector. • 41% reduction potential with the adoption of BAT at regional level. • Faster transition to multi-scale renewable projects with incorporation of BAT. • Development of Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) at regional level to assess the cost effectiveness of measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A realistic and integrated PSH and CH model is proposed for optimum energy management. • PSH balances energy supply and demand for intermittent renewable energy. • PSH sites with added water streams feeding upper reservoir incur net positive generation. • PSH reduced pumping energy consumption and enhanced off-peak annual energy production. The energy sector contributes to around 60% of total greenhouse gas emissions. To limit climate change, the world is going through an energy transition to clean and affordable energy, therefore the share of variable renewable energy is increasing day by day. Power systems require significant flexibility to operate reliably. Pumped storage hydropower allows load balancing and stable integration of intermittent renewable energy in the electrical grid. All energy storage technologies, including pumped storage hydropower, are considered a net negative contributor to the grid since they draw more energy than they deliver. This paper uniquely investigates the true potential of pumped storage hydropower and its optimum operation along with existing conventional hydropower. It considers power, energy production, and utilization for both installations to determine an equilibrium condition for a net positive energy balance. The case study of the 300 MW Balakot conventional hydropower plant in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan indicates that the pumped storage hydropower sites, where additional water streams reach the upper storage reservoir, can reduce pumping energy consumption by up to 166 GWh/year. Accordingly, a pumped storage hydropower facility is proposed at Paras, Pakistan, modeled, and optimized in an integrated manner with the Balakot conventional hydropower plant for a net positive annual energy generation and profitability. The integrated power and energy modeling and capacity optimization of the hydropower complex highlight the importance of suitable site selection for pumped storage hydropower near existing conventional hydropower reservoirs. Value-added contribution of this configuration is that it can enhance annual energy generation from integrated conventional hydropower, reduce the upfront capital cost of the project by 10–15%, squeeze the project implementation schedule and result in a smaller carbon footprint to meet the ultimate objective of limiting climate change. Additionally, it unlocks huge untapped pumped storage hydropower potential besides existing conventional hydropower. Furthermore, the study guides the scientific and engineering organizations on optimum capacity utilization without impeding energy generation from conventional hydropower facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

National economy and growth rely heavily on electricity but rapid urbanization, expeditious industrialization and increased domestic use due to population growth are among the reasons for the severe energy crisis in developing countries. The extended demand-supply gaps, depleting reservoirs of fossil fuel, and the environmental hazards altogether ignite the need for wider adoption of renewable energy resources for electricity generation. A functional assessment of the engineering design for this transition is a prerequisite before proceeding to on-ground implementation due to its high impact on system sustainability. To this end, we propose an agent-based modeling and simulation framework for the rapid prototyping of wind power plants. The proposed approach abstracts active components of wind power plants using agents and implements their dynamic behavior through agent interactions. The proposed model helps in composing different model components, design valuation, and forecasting energy generation in a cost-effective and productive manner. The proposed model is demonstrated by conceptualizing the design of the Foundation Wind Energy plant, located at Sindh, Pakistan, and the development of its agent-based model. The obtained short-term and long-term electricity generation profiles are validated with the actual data. We further compared the forecasts with the time series analysis performed on the actual data, using five different time-series forecasting models. The proposed simulation model and time series analysis model fit well on the actual data with a root mean square deviation of approximately 9 MW. The proposed framework will assist the policymakers in estimating the extent of electrical energy produced at given conditions using the wind potential available at the corridors of any country. It will further aid in the realistic analysis of the future dynamics of electricity demand and supply, hence help in effective energy planning. • Agent-based modeling simulation is effective for the rapid prototyping of wind power plants. • Active components of a typical wind power plant with dynamic behavior. • Demonstrated the approach by conceptualizing the design of the Foundation Wind Energy plant, Pakistan. • Validated the obtained short term and long-term electricity generation profiles with actual data with an approcimate error of 9 MW. • Compared simulated forecasts with time series analysis using multiple analysis approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]