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To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2008.11.016 Byline: Arnim Wiek (a), Lukas Gasser (a), Michael Siegrist (b) Abstract: The economic and social promises of emerging technologies, especially nanotechnology, are assumed to be outstanding due to radical innovative features of materials, products and services. However, preliminary studies indicate that these very same features, e.g. high chemical reactivity, could entail adverse impacts on human health and the environment. Calls for appropriate regulation and societal formation of nanotechnology developments have been made, resulting in the concept of sustainable nanotechnology governance. The required anticipatory knowledge supporting these efforts seems so far to lack a sound methodological basis as well as an integrated perspective on nanotechnological applications. We present a scenario study on possible future developments of nanotechnology in Switzerland (reference year 2020). The study employed a formalized and functional scenario methodology, featuring system analysis, consistency analysis and transdisciplinary collaboration. The results indicate five different future constellations of contextual aspects, such as public awareness, profit potential and legal regulations, which are assumed to consistently correspond to five distinct market situations for nanotechnological applications. Going beyond the specific nanotechnology scenarios, the article argues for a rigorous scenario methodology as a valuable tool for the sustainable governance of emerging technologies. Author Affiliation: (a) Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Natural and Social Science Interface, ETH Zurich, CHN, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland (b) Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Consumer Behavior, ETH Zurich, CHN, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.003 Byline: Arnim Wiek, Claudia Binder, Roland W. Scholz Abstract: Given the interplaying tendencies of economic decline, social instability, and environmental depletion, any transition towards sustainable development faces a challenging task. To successfully cope with this complexity requires transition management. Integrated approaches for supporting sustainability transitions have been elaborated in the last years. Future studies and scenario construction are regarded as essential components in these approaches. However, the related studies in this field have focused either on a specific type of transition process, or on decision support in a different contextual process, or on a specific function of scenarios. Thus, an evaluation of the wide range of viewpoints on the functions of scenarios with respect to the requirements for transition management is still missing. In this paper, we systematically elaborate upon the functions for transition management that scenarios can fulfil. The developed concept is applied to five empirical scenario studies supporting transition processes on the national, regional and local level in Switzerland. The paper contributes to the development of a functional methodology of transition support, providing initial guidelines for answering the question of which method is appropriate for what type and phase of a transition process. Author Affiliation: Institute for Human-Environment Systems, Natural and Social Science Interface, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, ETH Zentrum CHN, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland

Freshwater scarcity is a pivotal challenge for many cities, as resources are threatened by increasing demand, water quality concerns, and climate change impacts. Current governance approaches appear unable to respond effectively to these challenges, prompting calls for transitions to sustainable water governance. Scenarios are often used to explore narrow aspects of water systems, which is not a full realization of their potential to guide transitions in water governance. A transition-oriented approach to scenario construction needs to generate scenarios that (i) are governance focused, including the institutions, actors, and actions that will guide transitions; (ii) are normative, incorporating the values and preferences of those responsible for carrying out transition actions; (iii) are presented as a small set of distinct and identifiable scenarios, which stakeholders can comprehend and compare; and (iv) allow for interfacing with dynamic models to demonstrate the systemic impacts of different approaches to water governance. This research utilizes a participatory, mixed-method approach, including survey, scenario analysis, and simulation modeling to construct distinct, coherent, plausible, and normative governance scenarios of metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona in 2030. Four scenarios provide residents and policy makers with distinct options for future water governance regimes, indicating the future impacts of normative values and preferences that might or might not be aligned with ideas of sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary We present a comprehensive analysis of water governance in Guanacaste, Costa Rica. Methods included interviews, workshops, and participatory processes. The study zooms in on water-related rules and regulations, people’s actions, and the physical water system that people depend on. The results indicate complex governance problems and provide focal points for sustainable governance efforts. Focal points include: respecting scarcity and the limits of groundwater availability; building broad governance capacity; reconciling disenfranchised rural groups; and supporting creative local leadership. The study asserts the need for combining critical governance analysis with transformational and solution-oriented research in support of sustainable water governance efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nanotechnology has driven speculations and projections of all colors and shapes. However, there is a paucity of future scenarios that explore distinct nanotechnology innovation and governance models . This study asks: What could the dominant innovation models look like in the future, and, in contrast, what could alternative ones look like? And how conducive are those different models to mitigating sustainability challenges and improving quality of life? To make the exploration tangible, this study focuses on nanotechnology innovation in an urban region (Phoenix, Arizona). The study uses a mixed methods approach, linking intuitive and analytical scenario construction, to allow for creativity while ensuring analytical rigor. Findings suggest four different models of nanotechnology innovation and governance affect sustainability challenges quite differently. Market-oriented and closed collaboration amplify the lack of social cohesion, result in low-wage service sector jobs, and intensify resource extraction rates. Alternatively, social entrepreneurship and open-source innovation are more conducive to addressing sustainability challenges and improving quality of life, in particular in urban areas. The study concludes that the way a society innovates and governs its emerging technologies is decisive for the way those technologies work in favor of, or against comprehensive public interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scenarios that portray alternative governance regimes may help support positive change in regions that face persistent water problems. Here, we explore this proposition using the case of Guanacaste, Costa Rica - a region that faces water conflicts and climate change impacts. We developed five alternative scenarios using a formative and participatory approach with system, consistency, and diversity analyses, and visualization. In one scenario, water conflicts surfaced due to opaque governance not accounting for communities that opposed suspect alliances of agencies and developers. In another, challenging contexts overwhelmed fragmented governance causing dissent; which contrasted with another scenario where engaged and vertically accountable governance schemes fit the unique dry tropical regional context and collectively mitigate problems. Governance though, in a return to historical precedent, could alternatively function through top-down schemes to safeguard rural lifestyles; or, operate minimalist schemes that fill only technical roles. The scenario building process facilitated diverse stakeholders to collaboratively explore and articulate alternative water governance schemes. The practical value of the scenarios, however, we found to depend on efforts before and after the study and the successful integration of the scenarios with those efforts. Previous water governance research in the region facilitated partnerships, trust, and active participation in the scenario building process. Timely follow-up demonstrated the real-time application of the scenarios as reference points to help craft strategies that aim to transition current governance toward sustainable alternatives. Governance scenarios, if integrated with a broader transformational planning process, can be a constructive step toward articulating and implementing sustainable water governance schemes. In Guanacaste they helped revitalize coordination and encouraged experimentation through new water governance efforts in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the building and construction sector contributing significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions, there is great demand for resource- and energy-efficient construction materials. Manufactured nanotechnology products (MNPs) are expected to realize resource and energy efficiency through performance improvements in the strength, lightness and insulating properties of construction materials. However, the actual adoption of MNPs has lagged. This article examines how the construction sector in the United States assesses MNPs for adoption. Through patent analysis and interviews, we gauge the supply of MNPs and identify actors' roles in technology adoption. Results indicate that awareness of MNPs is more extensive than anticipated. Yet, MNP adoption is limited by a multi-component technology assessment process focused primarily on the technology's applicability to project-based outcomes. We conclude that barriers to MNP adoption can be overcome through intermediary activities such as product certification, comprehensive technology assessments, and "real-world" demonstrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The present study employs a real-time, practice-oriented, and place-based approach to dissect the process of nanotechnology innovation in support of novel governance schemes. The research question is: What are actors specifically doing in the process of nanotechnology innovation in a metropolitan area, and what are enabling and constraining drivers that could be leveraged for novel governance approaches? The study presents results from 45 interviews and a synthesis workshop with actors from academia, industry, government, and the civil society in Phoenix. Results show that actors follow preconceived mental models of innovation with the primary objective to deploy profitable commercial or military products. The dominant network actors are academics, industry, and government funding agencies. The network is divided along product-based sectors with few cross-sector linkages. Considerable governmental support for entrepreneurs and for academic research via the National Nanotechnology Initiative enables nanotechnology innovation in the early stages. Market failures and corporate barriers, however, constrain the value proposition in later phases. There is novelty in the nanotechnology products; yet, little attention is paid to consumer input, adverse effects, or broader public value generation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: There is an urgent need for meaningful information and effective public processes at the local level to build awareness, capacity, and agency on climate change, and support planning and decision-making. This paper describes a conceptual framework to meet these requirements by generating alternative, coherent, holistic climate change scenarios and visualizations at the local scale, in collaboration with local stakeholders and scientists. The framework provides a template for a process to integrate emission scenarios with both mitigation and adaptation strategies, and to link local manifestations of impacts and responses with global climate change scenarios. The article outlines the empirical application of this framework in the Local Climate Change Visioning Project in British Columbia, Canada. The project collaboratively localized, spatialized, and visualized possible climate change effects and community responses in the community''s ‘backyards’. The article concludes with lessons learned and suggested principles for future visioning efforts to engage communities in possible policy and behavioural choices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Local in its causes and global in its impacts, climate change still poses an unresolved challenge for scientists, politicians, entrepreneurs, and citizens. Climate change research is largely global in focus, aims at enhanced understanding, and is driven by experts, all of which seem to be insufficient to anchor climate change action in regional and local contexts. We present results from a participatory scenario study conducted in collaboration with the municipality of Delta in SW British Columbia, Canada. This study applies a participatory capacity building approach for climate change action at the local level where the sources of emissions and the mechanisms of adaptation reside and where climate change is meaningful to decision-makers and stakeholders alike. The multi-scale scenario approach consists of synthesizing global climate change scenarios, downscaling them to the regional and local level, and finally visualizing alternative climate scenarios out to 2100 in 3D views of familiar, local places. We critically discuss the scenarios produced and the strengths and weaknesses of the approach applied. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The IPCC''s emissions scenarios form the basis for the majority of long-term climate change projections, including those of the current Fourth Assessment Report. The main characteristics of the IPCC''s three scenario series – published in 1990, 1992 and 2000 – have changed significantly over time: titles, classification, assumptions and methods have all changed. This article analyses the evolution of the structure, description, process development and context of the IPCC''s emissions scenarios, identifying the most important changes and their scientific and political causes. These changes are evaluated against the criteria of saliency, credibility and legitimacy. Our analysis indicates, first, enhanced credibility through an improved scenario construction methodology (multiple baseline scenarios; storylines), even though these achievements are diluted by particularities of the scenario approach used. Second, a reduced saliency through absence of titles, an inappropriate classification and the relatively high number of baseline scenarios, limits and weakens their wider applicability. These latter trends were due in part to concessions made to the intergovernmental nature of the construction process (trade-offs). The article concludes by proposing for the future the employment of a more formal qualitative construction approach as well as revisions to scenario labelling and classification practices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: According to the targets set for sustainability, integrating the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs is one of the main goals for development projects. A major challenge in the development field is cross-sectoral integrated planning and achieving multi-stakeholder consensus for collaborative joint projects, especially when sustainability is a goal. This increases the complexity of the multi-stakeholder interaction in decision making and requires enhanced mechanisms for stakeholder participation, coordination, and commitment beyond narrow self-interest. A critical aspect in the decision making process is to enable stakeholders to not only interpret and make decisions based on expert judgments, but also to appropriately involve the relevant parties in the research and decision making process. Therefore, scientific analyses in multi-stakeholder contexts have to be more transparent, participatory, and stakeholder-based in order to provide useful information to assist responsible decision making. This paper presents an outline of a stakeholder-based life cycle assessment approach that can be used to support sustainable decision making in multi-stakeholder contexts. The framework is discussed and compared to other common methods used to support environmental decision making in development projects. We argue that the fundamental concept of life cycle thinking can be effectively used to incorporate stakeholders in the research and decision making process, which can lead to more comprehensive, yet achievable assessments in collaboration with stakeholders. Life cycle thinking is not just a way to examine environmental impacts of activities, but also a way to comprehend and visualize a broader set of upstream and downstream consequences of decisions in development planning and implementation. A life cycle framework including the mapping of stakeholder involvement at each activity in upstream and downstream stages would give stakeholders a holistic view that they otherwise may not have. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Sustainable governance of emerging technologies such as nanotechnology is a demanding societal challenge due to the “technological throughput” of today''s and tomorrow''s social life. A prerequisite for sustainable governance is an integrated understanding of the factors, interdependencies and developmental potentials of the technological system under investigation. This paper presents a transdisciplinary qualitative system analysis on nanotechnology in Switzerland, integrating perspectives from science, business, government, and society. It provides basic knowledge about the systemic characteristics of nanotechnology development, considering innovation characteristics (visibility), consumers'' concerns (contact) and the analogy to the GMO regulation (moratorium) as critical issues. The study affirms the method of qualitative system analysis, when applied in a transdisciplinary setting, as a useful, straightforward instrument for the early stage of sustainable governance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Emerging technologies, such as nanotechnology, feature considerable uncertainty regarding benefits that can be realized and unwanted side effects that ought to be avoided. Sustainable governance of emerging technologies addresses this issue from an integrated societal perspective that proposes collaboration among agents from science, business, government, and the public during the process of technological innovation and diffusion. In this paper, we present agent network analysis as a method to identify critical constellations in the agent network against the normative background of sustainable governance. Results from a transdisciplinary study on the agent network of nanotechnology in Switzerland reveal, among others, missing key agents, non-fulfillment of required functions, non-availability of required knowledge, and deviations between self- and cross-perception. The study contributes to methodological discussions on the formation of agent networks in science, technology, and public policy studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The sound development of city-regions presents a major planning challenge, as these regions are and will be the living spaces for the majority of the population. Therefore, a key question is how city-regions can be managed so that they develop in a sustainable way. Although Environmental Impact Assessment, Integrated Assessment, and other currently used approaches provide significant inputs for managing transition-processes towards sustainability, they must be extended to respond to three major deficiencies, which are (i) using lists of isolated indicators, (ii) not performing a consistency analysis of the targets to be achieved, and (iii) not utilizing the potential of transdisciplinary approaches. The authors present an approach to constructing Sustainability Solution Spaces for Decision-Making (SSP). This approach fulfils the systemic, normative, and procedural requirements of an appropriate sustainability assessment as elaborated in the technical literature. It provides a consistent set of targets considering the systemic relations among the indicators representing the city-region. This gives the decision-makers a concise guideline for sustainable decisions and makes them aware of the synergistic and contradictory effects of their decisions. The modular tool is first depicted as a general procedure and later differentiated into two transdisciplinary approaches, a participatory and an expert approach. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Decision-visualization facilities, compared across more than 50 attributes, share similar experiences, practices, and challenges. • The study offers empirically informed recommendations to advance decision-visualization environments. • Advancements focus on adaptive infrastructure and transformative human-computer interaction. • DVEs effectively provide settings for exploration and experimentation, rather than only explanation approaches. • An active network of DVEs could constitute a productive learning community. Semi-immersive visualization facilities support research, planning, and decision-making at the science-society-policy interface. Decision theaters, visualization studios, and similar installations—here referred to as Decision-Visualization Environments (DVEs)—facilitate human-computer-content interactions to explore climate change impacts, resource management practices, and urban design solutions. This comparative study analyzes the current practices of seven DVE facilities from around the world based on expert interviews, site visits, and document review. We found common practices across 53 attributes concerning the planning, stakeholder involvement, and realization of DVE activities. DVEs need good facilitation and purposeful combination to unlock their full potential. An active network of DVEs could constitute a productive learning community to pool and coordinate activities and share insights. Based on our findings, we deduce recommendations on how to improve the design of existing DVEs, to create new DVEs, as well as to plan DVE projects and events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Cities in regions around the world, such as the Colorado River Basin, face severe water challenges and need solutions that deliver significant progress towards sustainable urban water systems. Real-world experiments help stakeholders learn about solutions and select the most promising for scaling and transfer, but the sustainability experiments literature lacks guidance on how solution case studies might be done. An analytical framework for sustainability solutions developed by the authors is applied in a case study of a water-independent house experiment in Tucson, Arizona to provide insight into whether it could be a transformational solution towards a city-scale sustainable water system. Findings indicate technical feasibility, despite the arid climate, with sustainable co-benefits, but city-scale transformational potential is limited by house size, cost, and cultural acceptability, with a risk of negative systemic effect. Further experimentation towards a more effective solution is seen as worthwhile and areas for improvement and exploration are suggested. Highlights • Water independent housing is evaluated as a transformational urban water solution. • Experiments from Tucson, Arizona show technical feasibility in hot arid climates. • City-scale take-up has significant physical, financial, and cultural limitations. • Improvements are possible and offer substantial city water savings. • Cost is competitive with local centralized supply augmentation proposals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transitions towards sustainability are urgently needed to address the interconnected challenges of economic development, ecological integrity, and social justice, from local to global scales. Around the world, collaborative science-society initiatives are forming to conduct experiments in support of sustainability transitions. Such experiments, if carefully designed, provide significant learning opportunities for making progress on transition efforts. Yet, there is no broadly applicable evaluative scheme available to capture this critical information across a large number of cases, and to guide the design of transition experiments. To address this gap, the article develops such a scheme, in a tentative form, drawing on evaluative research and sustainability transitions scholarship, alongside insights from empirical cases. We critically discuss the scheme's key features of being generic, comprehensive, operational, and formative. Furthermore, we invite scholars and practitioners to apply, reflect and further develop the proposed tentative scheme – making evaluation and experiments objects of learning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are hubs of social interaction, trade, and innovation. Yet, they face sustainability challenges of economic decline, social injustices, and environmental degradation. Urban planning is a critical instrument to cope with these challenges. Visioning, the process of constructing desirable future states, can provide direction for sustainability-oriented planning and decision-making and is increasingly used in this capacity. However, there is ample evidence that urban visions are often not designed along a robust set of sustainability principles. We analyze nine explicitly sustainability-related urban visions from Sweden, Germany, Ireland, Canada, USA, and Australia with respect to their sustainability substance, i.e. in how far they, broadly and in detail, adhere to sustainability principles. Using rough set analysis, we identify a number of procedural components that enable or obstruct the inclusion of sustainability substance in urban visions. Results indicate that the sampled urban visions do not substantially and comprehensively include sustainability substance, instead narrowly focus on optimizing the built environment, for example. Furthermore, the sustainability substance of visioning processes benefits from stakeholder engagement that includes capacity building, whereas some other types of participation obstruct the inclusion of sustainability substance. The study concludes with recommendations for visioning processes to yield urban visions with sustainability substance inclusive of a diverse and integrated set of sustainability principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transnational collaborations between universities provide an underutilized opportunity to teach sustainability competencies emphasizing the global and local nature of (un)sustainability. This article asks: what kind of curricula and teaching-learning environments can we use in transnational collaborations so as to prepare future generations to address (un)sustainability across different scales and contexts? The article presents a glocal model for transnational collaboration for sustainability which combines the use of digital technologies for global collaboration with experiences and engagement for local learning and impact. The glocal model was designed and implemented in The Global Classroom , a collaborative project between Arizona State University and Leuphana University of Lüneburg. The model fills two important gaps in higher education for sustainable development. In the theory, it provides new concepts to think about the curriculum and teaching-learning environment of transnational collaborations for sustainability. In the practice, it presents an exemplary implementation that can inform the curriculum as well as the teaching-learning environment of such collaborations. The article concludes that transnational collaborations for sustainability ought to more systematically integrate curriculum reform with approaches to internationalization and digitalization of higher education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experiments are crucial for sustainability science because they allow researchers to produce evidence about the causes of sustainability problems and about the effectiveness of solutions. Many laboratory and field studies, community-based initiatives, and pilot projects have been defined as experiments in this field. Yet, in sustainability science, it is still unclear what distinguishes scientific experiments from conventional projects or initiatives as well as how different scientific experiments compare to one another. In this article, we define an experiment as a scientific practice that relies primarily on an intervention and that allows for the production of empirical evidence . We show that, in sustainability science, researchers can have different types of control over the intervention (from full to no control) and that evidence can be about different subjects (sustainability problems or sustainability solutions). Relying on this differentiation, we introduce a typology that organizes experiments in sustainability science according to type of control over interventions and subjects of experimentation. The typology provides a synthetic, comprehensive, and comparative overview of the variety of experimental approaches in sustainability science. By providing a definition and a typology for scientific experimentation in this field, the article contributes to the further development of evidence-based approaches in sustainability science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We continue to understand little about how to best design and operate transnational collaborations between universities to advance research and education for sustainability. This article explores general practices in transnational research and teaching that can provide information and inspiration for the sustainability field. The article follows a systematic review protocol and examines 46 articles involving 147 universities engaged in transnational collaborations. First, it presents the main features of these collaborations according to: (a) locations connected; (b) objectives pursued and subjects addressed; (c) implementation. Second, it discusses how reflecting on challenges and strategies encountered in these collaborations can support transnational sustainability research and education. The article concludes highlighting success factors for transnational collaboration, including: combining local and global considerations; making effective use of digital technologies; capitalizing on cultural and national differences; and making the best of available resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Implementing sustainable development (SD) requires operationalizing this rather vague guiding principle in a socio-technological context. This paper refers to a notion of SD that stresses approaching SD from a systemic perspective. We first present the Function-Structure-Context Framework to appraise if and how systemic characteristics are considered in assessments. The latter framework includes a functional, structural, and contextual dimension, as well as the interdependencies of these dimensions. We then analyze four currently applied landfill assessment methods with respect to this framework: i.e., MCEA (Modified Cost Effectiveness Analysis), LCA (Life Cycle Assessment), RA (Risk Assessment), and TVA (Swiss Technical Ordinance Waste). With respect to the analyzed methods, we can reveal that each of them focuses on specific systemic dimensions in its assessment step, whereas none refers to the whole range of dimensions and interdependencies of the framework presented. We then propose the so-called Sustainability Potential Analysis (SPA) as an alternative comprehensive SD assessment approach, which has the potential to integrate the results of the other methods for achieving a systemic SD assessment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Assessing landfills in terms of sustainable development (SD) is a difficult task. Landfills might, for example, remain reactive for hundreds or even thousands of years, a fact that conflicts with the fundamental SD principle of inter-generative equity. The Sustainability Potential Analysis (SPA) is a comprehensive assessment approach that aims at assessing the potential of a system to hinder or support SD from a systemic perspective. In this paper, we present an initial operationalization of this approach for a pragmatic legal landfill assessment and its application to assess two prototypic Swiss landfills as part of a pilot study. Thereby, the six generic criteria of SPA are specified using 18 Functional Key Variables (FKVs), such as “control of pollutant release” or “resilience to intended human impacts.” The first results from the pilot study indicate that SPA and its generic criteria provide a purposeful guiding framework for achieving a systemic and comprehensive SD assessment that seems (i) to be feasible for practical application, (ii) sensitive for relevant SD issues, and (iii) transparent for the addressees of the assessment results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]