Search

Purpose: Estimates of HIV prevalence, and how it changes over time, are needed to inform action (e.g., resource allocation) to improve HIV-related public health. However, creating adequate estimates of (diagnosed and undiagnosed) HIV prevalence is challenging due to biases in samples receiving HIV testing and due to difficulties enumerating key risk populations. To our knowledge, estimates of HIV prevalence among high risk heterosexuals in the United States produced for geographic areas smaller than the entire nation have to date been only for single years and/or for single cities (or other single geographic locations).Methods: The present study addresses these gaps by using multilevel modeling on multiple data series, in combination with previous estimates of HIV prevalence among heterosexuals from the extant literature, to produce annual estimates of HIV prevalence among high risk heterosexuals for each of 89 metropolitan statistical areas, from 1992 to 2013. It also produces estimates for these MSAs and years by racial/ethnic subgroup to allow for an examination of change over time in racial/ethnic disparities in HIV prevalence among high risk heterosexuals.Results: The resulting estimates suggest that HIV prevalence among high risk heterosexuals has decreased steadily, on average, from 1992 to 2013. Examination of these estimates by racial/ ethnic subgroup suggests that this trend is primarily due to decreases among Black and Hispanic/Latino high risk heterosexuals. HIV prevalence among white high risk heterosexuals remained steady over time at around 1% during the study period. Although HIV prevalence among Black and Hispanic/Latino high risk heterosexuals was much higher (approximately 3.5% and 3.3%, respectively) than that among whites in 1992, over time these differences decreased as HIV prevalence decreased over time among these subgroups. By 2013, HIV prevalence among Hispanic/Latino high risk heterosexuals was estimated to be very similar to that among white high risk heterosexuals (approximately 1%), with prevalence among Black high risk heterosexuals still estimated to be almost twice as high.Conclusions: It is likely that as HIV incidence has decreased among heterosexuals from 1992 to 2013, mortality due to all causes has remained disparately high among racial/ethnic minorities, thereby outpacing new HIV cases. Future research should aim to empirically examine this by comparing changes over time in estimated HIV incidence among heterosexuals to changes over time in mortality and causes of death among HIV-positive heterosexuals, by racial/ethnic subgroup. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The challenges of producing adequate estimates of HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) are well known. No one, to our knowledge, has published annual estimates of HIV prevalence among MSM over an extended period and across a wide range of geographic areas.Methods: This article applies multilevel modeling to data integrated from numerous sources to estimate and validate trajectories of HIV prevalence among MSM from 1992 to 2013 for 86 of the largest metropolitan statistical areas in the United States.Results: Our estimates indicate that HIV prevalence among MSM increased, from an across-metropolitan statistical area mean of 11% in 1992 to 20% in 2013 (S.D. = 3.5%). Our estimates by racial/ethnic subgroups of MSM suggest higher mean HIV prevalence among black and Hispanic/Latino MSM than among white MSM across all years and geographic regions.Conclusions: The increases found in HIV prevalence among all MSM are likely primarily attributable to decreases in mortality and perhaps also to increasing HIV incidence among racial/ethnic minority MSM. Future research is needed to confirm this. If true, health care initiatives should focus on targeted HIV prevention efforts among racial/ethnic minority MSM and on training providers to address cross-cutting health challenges of increased longevity among HIV-positive MSM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: After years of stable or declining HIV prevalence and declining incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the United States, some rapidly emerging outbreaks have recently occurred in new areas (e.g., Scott County, Indiana). However, to our knowledge, trends over time in HIV prevalence among PWID in US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) across all major regions of the country have not been systematically estimated beyond 2002, and the extent to which HIV prevalence may be increasing in other areas is largely unknown. This article estimates HIV prevalence among PWID in 89 of the most populated US MSAs, both overall and by geographic region, using more recent surveillance and HIV testing data.Methods: We computed MSA-specific annual estimates of HIV prevalence (both diagnosed and undiagnosed infections) among PWID for these 89 MSAs, for 1992-2013, using several data series from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) National HIV Surveillance System and National HIV Prevention Monitoring and Evaluation data; Holmberg's (1997) estimates of 1992 PWID population size and of HIV prevalence and incidence among PWID; and research estimates from published literature using 1992-2013 data. A mixed effects model, with time nested within MSAs, was used to regress the literature review estimates on all of the other data series. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. Resulting estimates were validated using previous 1992-2002 estimates of HIV prevalence and data on antiretroviral (ARV) prescription volumes and examined for patterns based on geographic region, numbers of people tested for HIV, and baseline HIV prevalence.Results: Mean (across all MSAs) trends over time suggested decreases through 2002 (from approximately 11.4% in 1992 to 9.2% in 2002), followed by a period of stability, and steep increases after 2010 (to 10.6% in 2013). Validation analyses found a moderate positive correlation between our estimates and ARV prescription volumes (r = 0.45), and a very strong positive correlation (r = 0.94) between our estimates and previous estimates by Tempalski et al. (2009) for 1992-2002 (which used different methods). Analysis by region and baseline prevalence suggested that mean increases in later years were largely driven by MSAs in the Western United States and by MSAs in the Midwest that had low baseline prevalence. Our estimates suggest that prevalence decreased across all years in the Eastern United States. These trends were particularly clear when MSAs with very low numbers of people tested for HIV were removed from analyses to reduce unexplained variability in mean trajectories.Conclusions: Our estimates suggest a fairly large degree of variation in 1992-2013 trajectories of PWID HIV prevalence among 89 US MSAs, particularly by geographic region. They suggest that public health responses in many MSAs (particularly those with larger HIV prevalence among PWID in the early 1990s) were sufficient to decrease or maintain HIV prevalence over time. However, future research should investigate potential factors driving the estimated increase in prevalence after 2002 MSAs in the West and Midwest. These findings have potentially important implications for program and/or policy decisions, but estimates for MSAs with low HIV testing denominators should be interpreted with caution and verified locally before planning action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The present study examines the psychometric properties of a student-reported measure of school quality, the CFS Conditions for Learning Survey, to examine its utility as a cross-national comparative measure to evaluate UNICEF''s Child Friendly Schools initiative. Factor analyses conducted on data from fifth- and sixth-grade students in 68 schools across the Philippines, Nicaragua, and South Africa revealed a core set of items that loaded highly onto each of the three dimensions of the CFS Conditions for Learning survey across all three countries. Formal tests established measurement invariance for a subset of these items, indicating that they were free from methodological bias across countries. However, meaningful differences in the country-specific structure and substantive interpretation of school quality were also detected. The results suggest that items in the CFS Conditions for Learning survey can be used to create both reliable cross-national and country-specific indicators of school quality and provide a blueprint for future psychometric work in the field of comparative child and family policy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Purpose: To assess cross-population linkages in HIV/AIDS epidemics, we tested the hypothesis that the number of newly diagnosed AIDS cases among Black people who inject drugs (PWID) was positively related to the natural log of the rate of newly diagnosed HIV infections among Black non-PWID heterosexuals in 84 large U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 2008-2016.Methods: We estimated a multilevel model centering the time-varying continuous exposures at baseline between the independent (Black PWID AIDS rates) and dependent (HIV diagnoses rate among Black heterosexuals) variables.Results: At MSA level, baseline (standardized β = 0.12) Black PWID AIDS rates and change in these rates over time (standardized β = 0.11) were positively associated with the log of new HIV diagnoses rates among Black heterosexuals. Thus, MSAs with Black PWID AIDS rates that were 1 standard deviation= higher at baseline also had rates of newly diagnosed HIV infections among Black non-PWID heterosexuals that were 10.3% higher. A 1 standard deviation increase in independent variable over time corresponded to a 7.8% increase in dependent variable.Conclusions: Black PWID AIDS rates may predict HIV rates among non-PWID Black heterosexuals. Effective HIV programming may be predicated, in part, on addressing intertwining of HIV epidemics across populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]