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The increasing backlash against globalization has shifted public opinion towards being against trade. This situation puts food trade, which is resources constrained and susceptible to political relations, into a complex dilemma. Due to the concerns on agricultural endowments, food trade needs to be considered with strategic interests because of its sensitivity and fragility. Using virtual land as a measurement to analyse the resource flows behind the food trade can provide an objective perspective on what extent a country depends on the trade. Overlaying worldwide trade disputes and political interventions, establishing solid trade relationships is increasingly becoming urgent. This study uses an extended gravity model, assesses the virtual land traded by China with 10 species over 20 years, and provides insights on establishing politics-oriented trade relationships, further testing how this political mechanism works in the food trade. The results demonstrate that memorandums of understanding are the fundamental institutional layer to guarantee trading activities and promote smooth transactions for both sides; state visits are determinable factors in establishing bilateral relationships and it significantly promote upper-middle income countries, which crucially impacts the trading system. As those endeavors undertaken by executive departments are often ignored, more attention should be paid to them during interactive stages. Political relations show differences in food trade among different countries and varieties. The promoting effect of political relations is stronger in middle and high-income countries, and the impact on Russia and Ukraine is more significant than others. Compared within varieties, foreign state visits and endeavor presents more positive on pork. • An extended gravity model has been used to analyse the impact of political relations on food trade. • Political relations has been quantified to analyse its impact on food trade. • Use quantified method to define China's political endeavor and Foreign political endeavor. • Food trade is represented by virtual land, providing a resource constraint perspective for quantitative analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of restrictions in logistics, transportation, distribution, finance and other business sectors on food trade. We use a gravity model with panel data from 2014 to 2018 across 36 OECD countries, OECD indices of individual country restrictions and regulatory differences by country pair to capture the level of restrictions in these sectors. The results suggest that higher restrictions in the logistics and transport sector lead to lower exports of food commodities. Also, restrictions in the financial and other business sectors are associated with lower imports. Interestingly, restrictions in the distribution sector have positive and significant effects on both exports and imports of food products. The sectors most affected are food, live animals and perishable products (milk, eggs and meat). The regulatory disparity has a significant negative impact on food trade. This impact decreases when the exporter country is closed to service providers. The deregulation or harmonization of these measures would be highly beneficial to food trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The inter-provincial food–related virtual water and land network was established. • The interconnectedness among different provinces was assessed by ENA. • The WLF nexus can help understand the spatial linkage of water and land resources. Abstract Massive amounts of water and land embodied in crops are transferred via food trade. This study established a network-based framework for the water–land nexus in food trade to investigate the spatial linkages of water, land, and food. Based on the gravity model and linear programming optimization, the food trade model was first built to simulate crop trade. Then water consumption and land use for various crops in different regions were inventoried to establish the food-related virtual water network and food-related virtual land network. Grey water related to water quality, blue and green water related to water quantity, were incorporated into the food-related virtual water accounting framework to identify the role of food trade in the spatial reallocation of water. Similarly, the food-related virtual land network was built based on the land use for different crops and the food trade model. Finally, a case study was conducted using ecological network analysis to analyze the properties and connections within the food-related virtual water/land networks of China. The results showed that the green and grey water consumption associated with food production, the effects of which have previously been neglected, account for a huge proportion of the total water consumption, especially in water-scarce provinces. The controllers/dependents in the networks that have strong control relationships with other provinces were identified. The proposed network-based framework for the water–land nexus may help boost synergies associated with spatial reallocation of water and land via food trade and explore pathways for sustainable management of water, land, and food resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transfer characterization of greenhouse gas from agricultural sources in the food trade is important to ensure food security and mitigate climate change. In this study, a spatial equilibrium model was established to simulate the trade flow patterns of grains and meat in China from 2000 to 2020 and the greenhouse gas from agricultural sources implied therein. This identified coupling relationship between production and greenhouse gas emissions. The results showed that the separation of supply and demand in food trade led to greenhouse gas transfers and flows that were similar to the food trade pattern. The total greenhouse gas transfer from grains decreased. However, that from meat increased from 13.91 Mt CO 2 -eq to 41.89 Mt CO 2 -eq, while the cross-regional transfer share increased from 47.86% to 59.16%. This study provides a benchmark for the better formulation of policies for zonal greenhouse gas reduction from agricultural sources. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Food trade is transferring the water embodied in food production, which plays important role in balancing water resources between dry and wet regions. To identify the impact of food trade on reallocating water and pathways to mitigate the trade–offs between food security and water resource conservation, we built food–based virtual blue, green and grey water network. The gravity model and linear programming optimization were used to model interprovincial food trade of China in 2015, and the regional blue, green and grey water footprint of food crops were inventoried. Combing the food trade network and water footprint, the food–based virtual blue, green and grey water network was built and used to quantify the water relationship along with national food supply chain. Our results showed that the proportion of green and grey water for the total water consumption were huge, while whose impacts were traditionally neglected. Especially, the food trade is playing important role in transferring the water used for assimilating the pollution. By identifying the critical food trade pathways, we aim to provide insights for reducing the structural tensions between spatial water reallocation and national food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global food trade entails virtual flows of agricultural resources and pollution across countries. Here we performed a global-scale assessment of impacts of international food trade on blue water use, total water use, and nitrogen (N) inputs and on N losses in maize, rice, and wheat production. We simulated baseline conditions for the year 2000 and explored the impacts of an agricultural intensification scenario, in which low-input countries increase N and irrigation inputs to a greater extent than high-input countries. We combined a crop model with the Global Trade Analysis Project model. Results show that food exports generally occurred from regions with lower water and N use intensities, defined here as water and N uses in relation to crop yields, to regions with higher resources use intensities. Globally, food trade thus conserved a large amount of water resources and N applications, and also substantially reduced N losses. The trade-related conservation in blue water use reached 85 km 3 y −1 , accounting for more than half of total blue water use for producing the three crops. Food exported from the USA contributed the largest proportion of global water and N conservation as well as N loss reduction, but also led to substantial export-associated N losses in the country itself. Under the intensification scenario, the converging water and N use intensities across countries result in a more balanced world; crop trade will generally decrease, and global water resources conservation and N pollution reduction associated with the trade will reduce accordingly. The study provides useful information to understand the implications of agricultural intensification for international crop trade, crop water use and N pollution patterns in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's rapid increase in food imports has repercussions for China's and global resources. This study reviews the recent literature on China's virtual water and land trade through food trade, presents updated results for 2000–2015, and makes projections for 2030. The results show that the increased imports of virtual water and land have significantly eased pressure on these resources in China. Soybean imports have been the main contributor towards China's domestic savings of virtual water and land. China's food trade has increasingly contributed towards global savings of virtual water and land. Our projections suggest that the trend in savings of domestic and global virtual water and land will continue, with significant variations due to changes in resource use efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Securing food for growing populations while minimizing environmental externalities is becoming a key topic in the current sustainability debate. This is particularly true in the Mediterranean region, which is characterized by scarce natural resources and increasing climate-related impacts. This paper focuses on the pressure Mediterranean people place on the Earth ecosystems because of their food consumption and sourcing patterns and then explores ways in which such pressure can be reduced. To do so, it uses an Ecological-Footprint-Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output (EF-MRIO) approach applied to 15 Mediterranean countries. Results indicate that food consumption is a substantial driver of the region's ecological deficit, whereby demand for renewable resources and ecosystems services outpaces the capacity of its ecosystems to provide them. Portugal, Malta and Greece are found to have the highest per capita food Footprints (1.50, 1.25 and 1.22 global hectares (gha), respectively), while Slovenia, Egypt and Israel have the lowest (0.63, 0.64 and 0.79 gha, respectively). With the exception of France, all Mediterranean countries rely on the biocapacity of foreign countries to satisfy their residents' demand for food. By analyzing the effect of shifting to a calorie-adequate diet or changing dietary patterns, we finally point out that the region's Ecological Footprint – and therefore its ecological deficit – could be reduced by 8% to 10%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of aflatoxin contamination in food safety is an important policy issue impacting food industries worldwide. This paper evaluates the economic implications of strict peanut aflatoxin regulation in Europe focusing on price and quantity effects of the policy. Equilibrium displacement modeling is applied on a source-differentiated market. Findings show that regulation tightening leads to price and quantity drop for the United States and other exporters, whereas China benefits owing to its price and quantity gains. Although both peanut exporters and importers share compliance costs from the aflatoxin policy, consumers in Europe pay a greater proportion of the costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-related hazards can lead to agricultural losses and affect local and wider food supply via food trade. This study estimates the potential for adverse effects of climate hazards on food supply across Indian States and Union Territories (hereafter 'states') by quantifying climate hazard risks. Risks were estimated using the most recent data available on hazard presence, vulnerability, and volume of per capita food supply that is exposed to hazards. Historical (2000–2020) climatological and geological data sourced from meteorological stations and satellite imagery were used to estimate the state-level presence of eight climate-related hazards (droughts, forest fires, floods, extreme rainfall, landslides, cyclones, extreme temperatures, sea level rise). For each state and hazard type, we distinguished between risk to food supply produced in the state and the risk to food supply imported from other states. The source of food supply was estimated from a supply and demand balance model for 30 major food items that uses government data from 2011–12. We found that climate hazard risks to food supply vary across states and by hazard type. The largest climate hazard risks to state food supply are in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Assam, where the majority of risk is to locally produced supply. Food supply in each state is at risk to all eight climate hazards via food imports from other Indian states. For 14 states, the climate hazard risk is greater for imported food supply than for locally produced supply. Just five states contribute to more than half of the climate hazard risk in interstate food trade. The findings indicate that climate-related hazards in Indian states could have potentially adverse effects on national food supply, affecting both local production and interstate trade. For policy-makers, these climate hazard risks identify potential priorities for enhancing food system resilience to mitigate impacts on local and national food security. [Display omitted] • We use a novel approach to estimate the potential impacts of eight climate hazards on state-level Indian food supply. • Food supply is at risk from climate hazards particularly in states with high hazard presence and high vulnerability. • We find that 5 states contribute to more than half of the climate hazard risk to food supply that is traded between states. • The findings identify hotspot states and food system vulnerabilities for risk management and adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Food security has determined the history of mankind. The global population will increase to about 9 billion during the next four decades. Food and feed demands have been projected to double in the 21st century, which will further increase the pressure on the use of land, water and nutrients. Clearly, there are gaps in our knowledge regarding the global capacity for a sustainable plant-based production to meet the demands of a bio-based economy, while maintaining food security. Complexity in the demand and supply of food, feed and fuel at local, regional and global scales asks for tailor-made solutions. The rapidly growing demand for food, feed and fuel will require transitions in land and water management, improving crop productivity and resource-use efficiencies. The present review discusses achievements and short-comings in meeting food security at a global and regional scale. Next, the avenues for future research in agronomy to enhance food production are presented. Progress should be made in: [-] Improving yield security and closing yield gaps by plant–soil–crop management practices based on knowledge-based support systems for contrasting conditions in land use and climatic conditions. [-] Making cropping systems adaptive to climate change and to biotic and abiotic stresses by genetic improvement of crops and increasing agro-diversity. Carrying out integrated assessments of biophysical and socio-economic constraints and opportunities to improve the productivity and sustainability of agricultural systems. [-] The ultimate objective is to achieve food security, sustainability and ecosystem services at regional and global scale on a cost-effective way. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Food policy should serve humanity by advancing the humane goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger. However, these goals have recently been challenged by emerging forces including climate change, water scarcity, the energy crisis as well as the credit crisis. This paper analyses the overall role of these forces and population growth in redefining global food security. Specifically, global water supply and demand as well as the linkages between water supply and food security are examined. The analysis reveals that the water for food security situation is intricate and might get daunting if no action is taken. Investments are needed today for enhancing future food security; this requires action on several fronts, including tackling climate change, preserving land and conserving water, reducing the energy footprint in food systems, developing and adopting climate resilient varieties, modernising irrigation infrastructure, shoring up domestic food supplies, reforming international food trade, and responding to other global challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study investigates food trade patterns in relation to water resources availability in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMED). Examinations show that most of these countries have a high dependence on the import of water intensive crops – cereal, vegetable oil and sugar, in the domestic food supply. The region as a whole is marginally a net exporter of fruits and vegetables, while variations are substantial across countries. Multi-variable regression analyses show that intensification of water scarcity is an important factor in explaining the increase in food import in the SEMED countries during the past two decades. It also finds that while GDP per capita has a strong influence on the level of food import in a country, its impact on changes in the import during the same period is rather modest. No significant relationship is found between the trade of fruits and vegetables and water resources availability. The projection on food import with respect to the decline in per capita water resources availability results in an increase of 40%, 39% and 14%, respectively, for cereal, vegetable oil and sugar by 2020 in the region, holding other factors constant. The European Union (EU) is the major food trade partner of the SEMED countries, except for cereal. About 70% of the fruit export and 55% of the vegetable export of the region currently go to the EU market. Expanding the export of fruits and vegetables is conducive to improving the value of water use in the SEMED countries. However, the expansion is constrained partly by the barriers in the destination markets, notably the EU. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The concept of food safety has lately acquired a new approach due to globalization and free trade in food. Introducing a HACCP system in the production and trade in food has become a necessity. The term “food trade” indicates all the postproduction procedures, from storage, transport and distribution to retail, including export and import. The aim of our 2002 survey was to analyse the situation of cold chain maintaining in food trade in Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia. The research was based upon two hypotheses: in the first one we supposed that a cold chain is interrupted in retail and in the second one we supposed that the handling of food in retail varies. Seventeen stores were divided in three groups, according to sales area of the store: large ones, medium ones and small ones. Temperature conditions in cooling appliances for storage of 1688 perishable food products were measured. Products were inspected by two criteria, by the “best before” date and by the storage temperature. The results confirmed both of the hypotheses. The storage conditions were properly labelled on the packages of the products inspected. In most of the cases the temperatures measured differed from the required ones, even for up to 10°C. The biggest differences were detected between temperatures indicated on cooling appliances and temperatures measured by our calibrated thermometers. Conditions during food storage and in retail stores were not documented and there was no system to control the cold chain. Our findings have shown that retailers are not familiar with the importance of maintaining a cold chain. The result of that can be a shorter durability of highly perishable foodstuffs and their safety for consumers is questionable. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• A food balance approach is applied to estimate the status-quo virtual land use transfer in the future. • The UK and feed barley are used as a case study to demonstrate the method. • The UK could face large virtual land use imports due to deficits arising from reduced land area. • The food balance approach avoids the constraints of complex trade modelling approaches. • With the right data, the method can be effective and useful in estimating future virtual land use transfers. Virtual land use refers to the area of land used to produce a unit food commodity that is traded. The role of virtual land use in future food security under conditions of land scarcity has received little policy and research attention, partly due to the constraints of complex modeling and data requirements. This study demonstrates a simple food balance approach to estimate virtual land use under projected population, climate, and land use change using the United Kingdom (UK) and feed barley in the 2050s. In this approach, future supply (production based on climate and land use change scenarios) was distributed over utilization components based on proportions derived from baseline food balance sheet. Subsequently, future surplus or deficit was estimated as the difference between supply and projected demand (a product of per capita demand and population). Based on the commodity balance (surplus or deficit), virtual land use was estimated for different combinations of population, climate change and land use scenarios. The results showed that, even at 90th percentile yield, the minimum and maximum area of land required in addition to the current area of land under barley cultivation to meet projected demand in the UK, for all combinations of population, climate and land use change, were 306 and 840 thousand ha. However, due to reductions in projected area of land, virtual land use imports ranged from 315 to 1450 thousand ha for all combinations of population, climate, and land use change. The UK's contribution to global land losses due to productivity differences between the UK and partner countries were between 9–577 thousand ha. It is concluded that the food balance approach applied in this paper is simple and replicable in data-poor contexts to provide comparable estimates of future virtual land use transfers, bearing in mind the limitation imposed by the assumption of time invariance of the proportionate distribution of utilization components. Further, the UK example highlights the need to examine the impacts of national policies of countries that currently have high productivity for some globally important crops on future virtual land use and efficient use of dwindling global land resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The food system is increasingly acknowledged as the single largest reason for humans' transgression of key planetary limits and it is gaining centrality in our societal run-up towards a sustainable future, especially at city level. In Portugal, a country characterized by high meat and fish consumption, noticeable food wastage, and high urbanization level, fully understanding and then transforming the food system is of priority. Here we investigate the significance of food in comparison to other daily anthropogenic demands and the current sourcing and resource intensities profiles of dietary patterns at Portuguese national and city level through Ecological Footprint Accounting. A critical assessment of gaps in national and local food policies to trigger a major transformation in the Portuguese food system is also conducted on the basis of a newly proposed analytical framework. Results show that food consumption in Portugal is the single largest reason (≈30%) for transgressing the carrying capacity of Earth ecosystems but, despite the urgent need for changes in Portuguese food systems, major deficiencies in local policy implementation exist with weak policy commitment, coordination, and lacking institutional capacity as food policies – especially at the local level – are still not prioritized. Similarities with other countries within Europe and their implications are also discussed. Unlabelled Image • A replicable top-down Footprint approach is used for food sustainability assessment • A policy framework is proposed to assess gaps in sustainable food policies • Food sourcing, trade dependencies and dietary impacts are investigated • National and urban food policies gaps are identified and discussed • Sustainable food transition is weak although much needed in Portugal and globally [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A spatial mismatch in water and arable land availability results in large virtual water transfers through interprovincial food trade in China. Accurately identifying and measuring water-saving links in interprovincial food trade can help to relieve water resources pressure in main grain-producing areas. We use a multiregional input-output table combined with the CROPWAT model to build China's interprovincial virtual water transfer network embedded in food trade in 2012. Then, water saving and scarce water saving are measured. Both consider the difference in water productivity among provinces, but the latter also pays attention to the scarcity of water resources. Finally, we adopt a water footprint to recalculate the scarce water savings without precipitation (green water). Our results indicate that the amount of virtual water transfer embedded in food trade is 74.9 billion m3, which is equivalent to 12.22% of the total water use in 2012. We observe large variations in the relationship between water resources abundance and agricultural water-use efficiency across provinces. Especially, there is a virtual water transfer from provinces with high water productivity but a lack of water to provinces with low water productivity but an abundance of water. The scarce water saving can identify sustainable food trade links, which can alleviate water scarcity in consuming provinces without exacerbating water shortage in producing provinces. In addition, interprovincial food trade results in 15 billion m3 of scarce gray water saving, which is equivalent to 59.76% of the scarce blue water saving. Scarce water saving based on blue water and gray water provides a basis for establishing an interprovincial compensation mechanism to balance the cost of water redistribution caused by food trade. Unlabelled Image • The interprovincial food virtual water trade network is constructed in China. • Water endowments is added to improve the calculation method of water saving. • The difference between water saving and scarce water saving is compared. • Water footprint is used to distinguish the saving of different types of water. • Important insights about coordinating food trade with sustainable water use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensuring a consistent and regular availability of food is crucial for food security. Food markets, supplied through both domestic production and international trade, are governed by several risks emerging from unpredictable supply chain disruptions, volatility of commodity prices, along with other unforeseen circumstances such as natural disasters. To mitigate the challenges threatening the stability of food systems, decision-making within the food sector should be enhanced and robust to accommodate any changes that might cause food shortages. Dynamic models, that can predict the behavior of food systems in order to avoid potential future knock-on effects and deficits, are incumbent to ensure the sustainable performance of food systems. This study proposes a dynamic decision-making scheme that simulates strategies of the perishable food market under different circumstances. An agent-based model (ABM) is developed and implemented using python MESA library for a case study in Qatar, illustrating the potential performance of tomato under three different scenarios to be considered, namely: (a) baseline scenario - aiming to reflect current production and market conditions; (b) water resource efficiency scenario - basing decisions on crop water requirement (CWR) depending on weather conditions; and (c) economic risk scenario - applying the concept of forward contracts to hedge against future uncertainties in crop prices. The findings of this study demonstrate that under the baseline conditions, a tomato crop can be supplied through a combination of domestic production and imports depending on the available inventories and prices imposed by exporters. The results obtained for the CWR scenario suggest the need for total reliance on imports in order to meet domestic demand, as there is potentially high-water loss, which amounts to an average of 4.9 Billion m3 per year, if tomato is grown locally. In contrast, the results from the forward contract scenario recommend a 57% dependency on local production in order to mitigate the effects of volatility in global food prices, which contributes to a 63% reduction in environmental emissions. Findings of this research provide insight into the factors that influence strategic decision making by the food sector to enhance its economic and environmental performances under diverse circumstances. • A dynamic decision-making framework to ensure consistent availability of food is developed. • An agent-based simulated is used to advise the strategic planning of tomato crops supply in Qatar. • Three scenarios are investigated to demonstrate the impact of crop water requirement and forward contracts on strategies of the food sector. • A yearly average of 4.9 Bm3 is globally saved when the water requirement is considered in the decision-making. • A reduction of 63% in environmental emissions is recorded while adopting forward contracts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapidly increasing international food trade has drastically altered the global food system over the past decades. Using national scale indicators, we assess two of the resilience principles that directly reflect the effects of global trade on food systems – namely, maintaining diversity and redundancy, and managing connectivity. We perform our analysis for four nutritional components: dietary energy, proteins, fat, and quantity of vegetables & fruits – the key pillars of the WHO dietary recommendations. Our results indicate that, between 1987 and 2013, food supply diversity increased significantly for most of the world's population at the cost of an elevated dependency upon food imports. Food production diversity, particularly in terms of dietary energy and vegetables & fruits, increased for a large proportion of the world population, with the exception being major exporting countries, where it decreased. Of particular note is our finding that, despite a growing number of people being heavily dependent upon imports, the number of import partners decreased more often than it increased, except for the case of vegetables & fruits. This combination of increased dependency on imports and a reduced number of import partners indicates a potential vulnerability to disruptions in linked food systems. Additionally, it is alarming that we found many countries where the studied resilience aspects systematically declined, elevating their exposure to future shocks in the food system. • Impacts of international food trade on multiple indicators of food system resilience are assessed over last three decades. • Food supply diversity increased at the cost of increased dependency on food imports. • Production diversity decreased in major exporting countries. • Increased dependency on food imports combined with drop in trade partners might lead to vulnerability on food shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]