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A wave energy assessment is performed in the Canary Islands, based on a 33-year hindcast, between 1979 and 2011. The third-generation wave models WAVEWATCH III and SWAN are used to study the generation of the waves in the North Atlantic basin and the transformation of the waves in the Canary Islands, respectively. The hindcast system was validated in a prior study, showing a relevant wave energy resource distribution with an average annual energy availability of 25–30 kW/m. This study intends to offer a detail description of the wave climate, combining the previous results with the new studies. The results show that the seasonal mean distribution of wave energy varies between 15 and 20 kW/m, in the spring and 25–30 kW/m, in the winter, while in the less energetic areas the seasonal average varies between 10 and 15 kW/m, in the spring, and 15–20 kW/m, in the winter. Also, the temporal variability indexes suggest that the East coast of the islands presents less variability and that the North/Northwest coast of the islands exhibits greater energy availability.

Since their introduction in the mid-1990s, the return per unit of risk or multiple on catastrophe (cat) bonds has steadily declined. This paper investigates whether this pattern is consistent with the historical evolution of natural disaster risk, using average multiple figures over the period 1997–2017. Assessing the accuracy of cat bond pricing is important, since about 50% of outstanding risk capital in the cat bonds market is currently exposed to Atlantic hurricanes -a risk that global warming, among other disruptions, is found to enhance- and pension and mutual funds in European and other OECD countries currently own about 30% of the market. In this respect, while our findings suggest that falling multiples are primarily related to the Fed's expansionary monetary stance and to portfolio shift effects, we do also find evidence of significant undervaluation of global warming risk in the cat bonds market. This finding, also in light of the unfailing appetite of institutional investors for such securities, casts doubts over the sanity of the market and over cat bonds as suitable investment products for risk averse investors. Sounder investment opportunities might be found in the green bonds market, which allows for the funding of immediate investment in climate change mitigation too.

The Bahamas or Lucayan Archipelago located in the western North Atlantic Ocean is highly susceptible to impact of hurricanes considering its location along the major pathways of Atlantic hurricanes and increased storminess in the Atlantic basin. The hydrodynamics of the narrow and steep carbonate continental shelf of Bahamas archipelago provides a stark contrast to the east coast of the United States by means of distinct interaction of shelves with hurricane induced waves, storm tide and currents. The present study implements a coupled ADCIRC-SWAN model to investigate the surge and wave dynamics along the coasts of Bahamas archipelago during Hurricane Joaquin, using multiple reanalyzed wind products. The analysis is focused on the hydrodynamic response of the archipelago considering its varying coastal bathymetry, slope and arching coastlines. Model computed a maximum significant wave height of 15 m, storm surge 1.5 m and coastal currents of 4 m/s during Hurricane Joaquin. Moreover, validation study also shows very good agreement with the buoy observations from the region. Spatio-temporal variability of storm tide and waves along with nonlinear impacts of wave setup and setdown highlights the dominance of waves with moderate influence of storm tides along the coastal zone of the island chain. The study also evaluated interaction of coastal currents with the arching coastlines of the Bahamas. In addition, wave parameters attributed to the sinking of the cargo ship El-Faro during the Hurricane Joaquin have been examined. Significant wave heights exceeding 12.5 m with wave period of 12.5 s and the reversing wave direction during Hurricane Joaquin might have resulted in the capsize of the cargo ship.

Hurricanes are massive storm systems with enormous destructive capabilities. Understanding the trends across space and time of a hurricane track and intensity leads to improved forecasts and minimizes their damage. Viewing the hurricane’s latitude, longitude, and wind speed as functions of time, we propose a novel spatiotemporal multivariate functional model to simultaneously allow for multivariate, longitudinal, and spatially observed data with noisy functional covariates. The proposed procedure is fully Bayesian and inference is performed using MCMC. This new approach is illustrated through simulation studies and analyzing the hurricane track data from 2004 to 2013 in the Atlantic basin. Simulation results indicate that our proposed model offers a significant reduction in the mean square error and averaged interval and increases the coverage probability. In addition, our method offers a 10% reduction in location and wind speed prediction error.

Despite evidence for an anti-correlation between African dust emissions and Atlantic hurricane activity in the instrumental period, there is debate as to whether there is any direct causal relationship between these two parameters. In this study, we provide a focused review of available African dust and storm activity records over 3 increasing timescales: the past 200 years, the past 3000 years and the past 12,000 years. In all three timescales, we find evidence for non-stationary, weak or unexpected relationships between African dust emissions and tropical cyclone activity. We suggest future storm record compilations that can better distinguish the relative frequency of storms generated in the eastern versus western development region of the tropical North Atlantic will provide a better test of the radiative impact of African dust over the past 3000 years and Holocene. Additionally, high resolution dust deposition records from the western Atlantic measured in the same cores used to derive storm records may provide much more detailed insight into how the variability in magnitude and spatial extent of the African dust plume has co-evolved with Atlantic storm tracks over recent millennia.

This study presents a multi-proxy reconstruction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity for the past 800 years from Robinson Lake, located on the north Atlantic seaboard of Nova Scotia, Canada. Two sediment cores were extracted from Robinson Lake and were dated by 210Pb and 14C methods, and analyzed for organic matter content, sediment grain size, and a range of elements and elemental ratios determined by XRF core scanning. A distinct sand layer in the most recent sediments is attributed to Hurricane Juan, which struck the coast of Nova Scotia on September 29, 2003. Our study shows that peaks in grain size farther down-core are generally correlated with abrupt increases in Br and Br/Ti. XRF-derived Br measurements are an indicator of marine organic carbon (MOC), and the increases in Br likely reflect incursions of marine water and nutrients into the lake as a result of storm surges. The results show that the period from ~1475 to 1670 CE contains at least 3–4 storm beds, and are interpreted as the most active TC period within the last ~800 years for this region. Our results are consistent with recent research from Salt Pond, Massachusetts (Donnelly et al. 2015), which provides evidence for heightened TC activity during the same period as our study at Robinson Lake. Our study represents one of the highest latitude paleotempestological studies from the North Atlantic basin which will help the testing of hypotheses concerning long-term changes in North Atlantic TC activity under future climate change scenarios.

A barrier to the development of the offshore wind resource along the U.S. Atlantic coast is a lack of quantitative measures of the risk to offshore wind turbines (OWTs) from hurricanes. The research presented in this paper quantifies the risk of failure of OWTs to hurricane-induced wind and waves by developing and implementing a risk assessment framework that is adapted from a well-established framework in performance-based earthquake engineering. Both frameworks involve the convolution of hazard intensity measures (IMs) with engineering demand parameters (EDPs) and damage measures (DMs) to estimate probabilities of damage or failure. The adapted framework in this study is implemented and applied to a hypothetical scenario wherein portions of nine existing Wind Farm Areas (WFAs), spanning the U.S. Atlantic coast, are populated with ∼7000 5 MW OWTs supported by monopiles. The IMs of wind and wave are calculated with a catalog representing 100,000 years of simulated hurricane activity for the Atlantic basin, the EDPs are calculated with 24 1-h time history simulations, and a fragility function for DM is estimated by combining variability observed in over one hundred flexural tests of hollow circular tubes found in the literature. The results of the study are that, for hurricane-induced wind and wave, the mean lifetime (i.e., 20-year) probability of structural failure of the tower or monopile of OWTs installed within the nine WFAs along the U.S. Atlantic coast ranges between 7.3 × 10−10 and 3.4 × 10−4 for a functional yaw control system and between 1.5 × 10−7 and 1.6 × 10−3 for a non-functional yaw control system.

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season resulted in nearly US $200 billion in disruption across the Caribbean and several US states. Several seeming knockout blows to communities will challenge the wisdom and affordability of resilience paradigms that have shaped policy and investment for civil works since Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy. With extensive involvement of the public and lawmakers, mid-Atlantic US cities, New Orleans, and nearby coastal communities ultimately, and mostly successfully, opted to use pre-2005 civil works as the blueprint for future investment. Should options of returning to pre-event normalcy be considered for these latest devastated communities? What would gain and what will suffer? While there is continuing priority and commitment for infrastructure systems to be resilient, the theory, science and methodologies to do so will certainly be tested by recent events. Adoption of a resilience strategy by government agencies requires the wisdom of the emerging science of resilience as never before. We describe economic motivations for implementing resilience assessment and management in damaged communities and large scale complex systems. We describe the latest understood principles of resilience that drive a decision framework. We call for examination of risk-based policymaking and investment decisions by the science of resilience.

Ocean quahogs [ Arctica islandica (Linnaeus, 1769)] are the longest-lived, non-colonial animal known today, with a maximum life span exceeding 500 years. Ocean quahogs are a commercially important bivalve, inhabiting the continental shelf of the North Atlantic basin. We examined growth rates of ocean quahogs that were fully recruited to the commercial fishery (>80-mm shell length) from four sites covering the range of the stock along the east coast of the U.S. through analysis of annual growth lines in the hinge plate. Both geographic and temporal differences (on a scale of decadal or longer) in growth rates exist throughout the range of the stock. The age at which animals reached 60, 80, and 90 mm decreased significantly, and average growth rates to 60, 80, and 90 mm increased significantly with birth year at a New Jersey and a Long Island site, both located in the southwestern portion of the stock, since the late 1700s/early 1800s, likely in response to increasing bottom water temperatures. That is, growth rates vary temporally with birth date at the southwestern sites, with younger animals growing at a much faster rate in recent decades than those born many decades previously, whereas at the northern sites off southern New England and on Georges Bank, changes in growth rates through time are limited to older adult animals or absent altogether. Thus, at the southern portion of the range, variation in growth rate over time exists in all phases of ocean quahog life, whereas on Georges Bank, little evidence exists for any differential in growth rate over the last ~200 years. The fact that ocean quahogs record the rise in ocean temperatures after the Little Ice Age in the Mid-Atlantic Bight southeast of southern New England, yet demonstrate little evidence of such a rise in the southern New England and Georges Bank region, would suggest a differential response of ocean circulation and its control of bottom water temperature between the northern and southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic Bight over the last 200+ years.

The localization of Gondwana rifting, break-up and subsequent opening of the South Atlantic basin appears to have been primarily controlled by inherited zones of lithospheric weakness. Evidence of passive instead of active rifting includes the timing of volcanism (if any at all) with respect to the inception of rifting and the results from various geophysical and geochemical studies. These studies showed, at least for the South Atlantic, that Gondwana break-up and subsequent separation of South America from southern Africa was mainly controlled by far-field forces, may be in conjunction with mechanical effects caused by a deep-seated plume that had not yet reached the upper mantle. This scenario may also apply to the opening of the SW Indian Ocean that initiated as a result of the separation of Antarctica from southern Africa. For all these areas it is suggested that break-up occurred in a rheologically weakened domain that was in a suitable orientation for rifting. In the case of the South Atlantic and probably also of the SW Indian Ocean, such domains were provided by the long axes of former back-arc basins that closed at Ediacaran and Mesoproterozoic times, respectively, and which had initially formed on top of thinned and thermally softened lithosphere.

Extreme weather events can result in loss of life, environmental pollution and major damage to vessels caught in their path. Many methods to characterise this risk have been proposed, however, they typically utilise deterministic thresholds of wind and wave limits which might not accurately reflect risk. To address this limitation, we investigate the potential of machine learning algorithms to quantify the relative likelihood of an incident during the US Atlantic hurricane season. By training an algorithm on vessel traffic, weather and historical casualty data, accident candidates can be identified from historic vessel tracks. Amongst the various methods tested, Support Vector Machines showed good performance with Recall at 95% and Accuracy reaching 92%. Finally, we implement the developed model using a case study of Hurricane Matthew (October 2016). Our method contributes to enhancements in maritime safety by enabling machine intelligent risk-aware ship routing and monitoring of vessel transits by Coastguard agencies.

In October 7–9, 2016, Hurricane Matthew moved along the southeastern coast of the U.S., causing major flooding and significant damage, even to locations farther north well away from the storm’s winds. Various observations, such as tide gauge data, cable measurements of the Florida Current (FC) transport, satellite altimeter data and high-frequency radar data, were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the storm. The data show a dramatic decline in the FC flow and increased coastal sea level along the U.S. coast. Weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) downstream from the storm’s area contributed to high coastal sea levels farther north. Analyses of simulations of an operational hurricane-ocean coupled model reveal the disruption that the hurricane caused to the GS flow, including a decline in transport of ∼20 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). In comparison, the observed FC reached a maximum transport of ∼40 Sv before the storm on September 10 and a minimum of ∼20 Sv after the storm on October 12. The hurricane impacts both the geostrophic part of the GS and the wind-driven currents, generating inertial oscillations with velocities of up to ±1 m s−1. Analysis of the observed FC transport since 1982 indicated that the magnitude of the current weakening in October 2016 was quite rare (outside 3 standard deviations from the mean). Such a large FC weakening in the past occurred more often in October and November, but is extremely rare in June-August. Similar impacts on the FC from past tropical storms and hurricanes suggest that storms may contribute to seasonal and interannual variations in the FC. The results also demonstrated the extended range of coastal impacts that remote storms can cause through their influence on ocean currents.

Quantitative records of past environments are needed to understand natural variability in ecosystems and their responses to climate change. Changes in ostracode assemblages through time can provide such records as ostracode species are sensitive to changes in their local environments. Before they can be used to indicate past environments, however, is it necessary to understand how distributions of assemblages change across environmental gradients. To that end, thirty-two lakes on San Salvador Island, Bahamas were sampled for both ostracodes and nineteen limnological variables. Multivariate fuzzy set ordination indicates that change in ostracode assemblages is significantly and independently correlated with three environmental variables: electrical conductivity (salinity), dissolved oxygen and alkalinity. A transfer function was created to reconstruct past conductivity since changing conductivity of lakes on San Salvador is influenced by changes in climate and sea-level. A 2-component weighted-averaging partial least squares model performed best as a transfer function for conductivity with an apparent r2 of 0.76 and an r2 of 0.69 between observed and predicted conductivity, as assessed by leave-one-out cross validation. The resulting transfer function was then applied to two mid- to late-Holocene sediment cores from which ostracode assemblages were sampled. The late Holocene conductivity records show that changes in conductivity of lakes on San Salvador are broadly synchronous with times of enhanced ENSO activity corresponding to elevated conductivity in response to lower Atlantic hurricane occurrence. These results demonstrate that changing ostracode assemblages through time provide a reliable means to reconstruct past salinity and demonstrates the strong effect of ENSO on Bahamian aridity.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was notable for a record-setting 30 named storms while, contemporaneously, the COVID-19 pandemic was circumnavigating the globe. The active spread of COVID-19 complicated disaster preparedness and response actions to safeguard coastal and island populations from hurricane hazards. Major hurricanes Eta and Iota, the most powerful storms of the 2020 Atlantic season, made November landfalls just two weeks apart, both coming ashore along the Miskito Coast in Nicaragua's North Caribbean Coast Autonomous Region. Eta and Iota bore the hallmarks of climate-driven storms, including rapid intensification, high peak wind speeds, and decelerating forward motion prior to landfall. Hurricane warning systems, combined with timely evacuation and sheltering procedures, minimized loss of life during hurricane impact. Yet these protective actions potentially elevated risks for COVID-19 transmission for citizens sharing congregate shelters during the storms and for survivors who were displaced post-impact due to severe damage to their homes and communities. International border closures and travel restrictions that were in force to slow the spread of COVID-19 diminished the scope, timeliness, and effectiveness of the humanitarian response for survivors of Eta and Iota. Taken together, the extreme impacts from hurricanes Eta and Iota, compounded by the ubiquitous threat of COVID-19 transmission, and the impediments to international humanitarian response associated with movement restrictions during the pandemic, acted to exacerbate harms to population health for the citizens of Nicaragua.

This paper evaluates the relative effectiveness of FEMA expenditures on hurricane induced property losses. We find that spending on FEMA ex-ante mitigation and planning projects leads to greater reductions in property losses than spending on ex-post adaptation programs – specifically, a one percent increase in annual spending on ex-ante risk reduction and warning projects reduces damages by 0.21 percent while a one percent increase in ex-post recovery and clean-up spending reduces damages by 0.12. Although both types of program spending are effective, we find the marginal return from spending on programs that target long-term mitigation and risk management to be almost twice that of spending on ex-post recovery programs. With the predicted increases in the frequency and severity of North Atlantic hurricanes in the future, our findings suggest there are important potential gains that could be realized from the further diversification of FEMA spending across project categories.

Hurricane Sandy, one of the largest Atlantic hurricanes on record, made landfall as an extratropical cyclone on the coast of New Jersey (29 October 2012) along a track almost perpendicular to the coast. Ten days later a northeaster caused heavy precipitation and elevated water levels along the coast. Two years of pre-storm monitoring and research in marshes of Barnegat Bay and the Delaware Estuary provided an opportunity to evaluate the impacts of Hurricane Sandy and the succeeding northeaster across the region. Peak water levels during Sandy ranged from 111 to 184 cm above the marsh surface in Barnegat Bay and 75–135 cm above the marsh surface in the Delaware Estuary. Despite widespread flooding and damage to coastal communities, the storm had modest and localized impacts on coastal marshes of New Jersey. Measurements made on the marsh platform illustrated localized responses to the storms including standing biomass removal, and changes in peak biomass the following summer. Marsh surface and elevation changes were variable within marshes and across the region. Localized elevation changes over the storm period were temporary and associated with subsurface processes. Over the long-term, there was no apparent impact of the 2012 storms, as elevations and regression slopes pre- and several months post-storm were not significant. Vegetation changes in the summer following the fall 2012 storms were also variable and localized within and among marshes. These results suggest that Hurricane Sandy and the succeeding northeaster did not have a widespread long-term impact on saline marshes in this region. Possible explanations are the dissipation of surge and wave energy from the barrier island in Barnegat Bay and the extreme water levels buffering the low-lying marsh surface from waves, winds, and currents, and carrying suspended loads past the short-statured marsh grasses to areas of taller vegetation and/or structure. These findings demonstrate that major storms that have substantial impacts on infrastructure and communities can have short-term localized effects on coastal marshes in the vicinity of the storm track.

Cyanobacterial toxic blooms are a worldwide problem. The Rio de la Plata (RdlP) basin makes up about one fourth of South America areal surface, second only to the Amazonian. Intensive agro-industrial land use and the construction of dams have led to generalized eutrophication of main tributaries and increased the intensity and duration of cyanobacteria blooms. Here we analyse the evolution of an exceptional bloom at the low RdlP basin and Atlantic coast during the summer of 2019. A large array of biological, genetic, meteorological, oceanographic and satellite data is combined to discuss the driving mechanisms. The bloom covered the whole stripe of the RdlP estuary and the Uruguayan Atlantic coasts (around 500 km) for approximately 4 months. It was caused by the Microcystis aeruginosa complex (MAC), which produces hepatotoxins (microcystin). Extreme precipitation in the upstream regions of Uruguay and Negro rivers' basins caused high water flows and discharges. The evolution of meteorological and oceanographic conditions as well as the similarity of organisms' traits in the affected area suggest that the bloom originated in eutrophic reservoirs at the lower RdlP basin, Salto Grande in the Uruguay river, and Negro river reservoirs. High temperatures and weak Eastern winds prompted the rapid dispersion of the bloom over the freshwater plume along the RdlP northern and Atlantic coasts. The long-distance rapid drift allowed active MAC organisms to inoculate freshwater bodies from the Atlantic basin, impacting environments relevant for biodiversity conservation. Climate projections for the RdlP basin suggest an increase in precipitation and river water flux, which, in conjunction with agriculture intensification and dams' construction, might turn this extraordinary event into an ordinary situation.

This paper summarizes research (conducted previously by the author) to incorporate (1) sea-surface temperature projections, (2) event-based hurricane simulation models, and (3) loss models to assess the impacts of the changing climate on the hurricane hazard and estimated insured losses. The focus of the work is on the US east coast and hence the formation and movement of hurricanes over the Atlantic Basin. As an illustrative case, the area around Charleston, South Carolina is considered. Specifically, this paper presents a methodology to probabilistically estimate regional hurricane loss considering both hurricane intensity and size as well as projected sea surface temperature change as a function of climate change. It is most common to characterize the hurricane wind hazard using a measure of intensity only. Recent studies have demonstrated the importance of accounting for storm size when characterizing the hurricane hazard in order to properly estimate/predict the spatial extent of damage. For purposes of regional loss estimation, therefore, considering maximum wind speed only may not be adequate. A storm with larger size but lower intensity might result in more damage and hence greater total loss than a smaller, more intense storm. Here, the maximum wind speed (intensity) and the radius of maximum winds (spatial extent) are selected as the two dominant indicators (parameters) characterizing the hurricane (event) hazard. The resulting bivariate hazard model is then used as input to a regional loss estimation model to illustrate its potential application. Only hurricane wind damage (and associated losses from both wind damage and water intrusion) is considered in this study. Collateral damage due to flood or storm surge is not addressed here. Simulated events impacting this region are extracted from a synthetic hurricane database (developed by the author and his colleagues) and the joint distribution of intensity and size is established to characterize the hurricane hazard. Regional loss for each simulated hurricane event is then estimated using the loss estimation module in HAZUS_MH. Finally, distributions of regional loss at different (event) hazard levels are generated. A future climate scenario (increasing sea surface temperature) is next considered and the joint distribution of hurricane intensity and size and the resulting loss distribution curve is recomputed. The results are then able to be compared to those under the current climate scenario. Such comparisons can help to inform codes and standards committees, for example, as they consider whether and how to take potential climate change impacts (in the design lifetime) into account. They also can inform ongoing public discourse around mitigation and adaptation, whether hardening of buildings and other infrastructure systems, community resilience planning, construction practices, or related policies.

This paper reviews the evidence for onshore sedimentary imprints of tsunami inundation known from the geological record of the Atlantic basin. The central aim of the paper is to offer a broad overview on the main deposits and key localities that have been documented along the Atlantic coastlines, and which attest to the local or regional impact of tsunamis during historical, pre-historical and recent geological times. Considerable detail is devoted to summarising key diagnostic criteria used to identify the deposits as tsunami-derived, and to set each deposit in its own unique geomorphological setting and context, always referring to the latest scientific knowledge of the events that generated them. The paper also discusses the relationships between the different tsunamigenic sources that concurred to the formation of the deposits, as well as critical information on magnitude and frequency, as inferred from the sedimentary responses preserved in the sediment archives. Documented case studies range from the well-studied landslide-triggered and earthquake-triggered Storegga and 1755 Lisbon tsunamis, respectively, to collapse- and eruption-triggered tsunamis in the Atlantic archipelagos, to other less well-known events in the south Atlantic, Caribbean and Arctic. Despite its less frequent tsunami recurrence, the Atlantic coastal stratigraphy presents some world-class case studies and outstanding outcrops, from which critical knowledge can be gained with respect to some of the most enigmatic aspects of tsunami science.

More than 12.5 million Africans were held captive on 40,000+ voyages during the transatlantic slave trade. Many did not survive the voyage and the Atlantic seabed became their final resting place. Exploration for mineral resources on the international seabed (the “Area”) in the Atlantic Basin is already underway, governed by the International Seabed Authority (ISA). Through the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Member States of the ISA have a duty to protect objects of an archeological and historical nature found in the Area. Such objects may be important examples of underwater cultural heritage and can be tied to intangible cultural heritage, as evidenced through links with religion, cultural traditions, art and literature. Contemporary poetry, music, art, and literature convey the significance of the Atlantic seabed in African diasporic cultural memory, but this cultural heritage has yet to be formally recognized by the ISA. We encourage Member States of the ISA to consider ways to respect and memorialize those who lost their lives and came to rest on the seabed in advance of mineral exploitation. Increased awareness of the Middle Passage seascape may be accomplished without limiting exploitation of mineral resources. An example of how this might be achieved is to place one or more virtual ribbons on ISA maps to depict major slave-trade routes across the Atlantic and in memory of those who died during their Middle Passage.

In this short communication paper, we investigate the characteristics of wind-waves in Portugal mainland coast induced by post-tropical storms. Six major Atlantic hurricane events that occurred between 2012 and 2019 are studied: Rafael (2012), Joaquin (2015), Ophelia (2017), Leslie and Michael (2018), and Lorenzo (2019). None of these events has made landfall as a hurricane or tropical storm in mainland Portugal. However, Leslie and Ophelia have undergone extratropical transition close to mainland Portugal. We use wave buoy data at three different locations offshore mainland Portugal to characterize wind-waves during the events. The wind-waves here studied reached the coast in October. When compared with the dominant Northern Hemisphere winter wind-wave storms (December to March), the wind-waves here studied presented relatively mild wave conditions (maximum significant wave heights up to 5 m) that barely exceed wind-wave storm thresholds. Nevertheless, these wind-waves presented high mean direction variability, and induced high peak wave periods (up to 18 s).

The partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and concentration of dissolved CH4 and N2O were studied during July 2017 in three estuaries of the southern Iberian Atlantic basin: the Guadalquivir, Tinto - Odiel and Guadiana. Two different sampling methods were adopted for each estuary: a longitudinal sampling along the course of the river, and a tidal cycle sampling of 24 h in the mouth of the estuary. In general, there is an increase in the concentration of gases towards the inner part of the river, in all three systems. Daily variations coupled to the tidal cycles were also observed in the three estuaries. The highest concentrations were measured during ebb, which suggests that the estuaries export CO2, CH4 and N2O to the Gulf of Cadiz. These three gases showed the highest value and range of variation in the Guadalquivir (pCO2: 959 ± 1009 μatm, CH4: 54.1 ± 74.5 nM, N2O: 14.1 ± 16.1 nM), followed by the Guadiana (pCO2: 595 ± 155 μatm, CH4: 53.5 ± 62.9 nM, N2O: 7.1 ± 0.5 nM), and the Tinto - Odiel (pCO2: 581 ± 204 μatm, CH4: 39.6 ± 43.5 nM, N2O: 6.8 ± 0.3 nM). Changes in pCO2 values and CH4 and N2O concentrations were affected by several factors: temperature, salinity, exchange with the atmosphere, reactivity of the gases and various physical and biological processes taking place in the estuaries object of study. The water - atmosphere fluxes of pCO2, CH4 and N2O resulted positive, revealing that the study area acts as a source of these gases to the atmosphere.

In early September 2019, dense crude oil began to wash the beaches of Brazil's tropical coast. Four months after the first report, the oil has already been found along >3000 km of the Brazilian coastline on >980 beaches and was recently observed along the Amazon coast, making this oil spill the most extensive and severe environmental disaster ever recorded in Brazilian history, in the South Atlantic basin, and in tropical coastal regions worldwide. Four features of this oil-spill disaster make it unique: 1) the characteristics of the oil spill; 2) the characteristics of the affected region in tropical Brazil; 3) the significant number of protected areas (>55) and tropical ecosystems affected by the oil; and 4) the absence of measures and/or flaws in the measures taken by the federal government to address this environmental and social emergency. The affected species and poor human communities in Brazil should receive focused attention in the coming decades owing to the long-term impacts of the oil contamination. Environmental monitoring and response measures must be implemented to minimize the ecological, economic, and social effects of the spill. Biodiversity and climate regulation losses considering blue carbon environments should drive discussions regarding mining accidents and global consequences related to pre-salt oil exploitation, new spill events, and their global impacts. These measures are particularly relevant in areas with high tropical biodiversity and high social inequality, as in the present case, which represents one of the worst-case scenarios of an environmental and governmental disaster.

The study examined the roles of tourists' risk beliefs, connectedness, hurricane knowledge, and their past experiences with hurricane impacts in relation to their information seeking behavior regarding hurricane evacuation while in the destination. Surveys were collected from tourists who were visiting Florida in September 2011, during the Atlantic hurricane season. Findings from this study reveal and confirm the existence of the critical relationship among tourist information seeking, past experience with hurricanes, individual risk beliefs, and level of knowledge. It is recommended that destination managers make investments in hurricane communication messages, which target a wide array of tourists. The effectiveness of hurricane evacuation information is linked to the receptiveness of the content of the message by differing groups.

The ability to discriminate rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) from their non-rapidly intensifying counterparts remains a major forecasting challenge in operational meteorology. Primarily, approaches to this forecast problem utilize dynamic model data as input into either numerical weather prediction models or statistical algorithms. Recent work suggested higher spatial resolution dynamic simulations will have greater success in distinguishing rapid intensification (RI) of TCs from those that do not, owing to the dynamic model's ability to depict smaller scale features explicitly within the simulation. Despite these preliminary findings, this approach has not been tested with a statistical modeling approach. As such, the scope of this work was to identify the importance of spatial resolution on the ability to forecast the onset of RI and non-RI TCs at 24 hour lead times. To accomplish this, 8 storms of each type were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at varying spatial resolutions (54km, 18km, and 6km). Meteorological fields from the WRF were used as input into a support vector machine classification algorithm trained to discriminate RI and non-RI TC environments.

The results of a numerical assessment of the wave energy in the Iberian North and West coast are presented. The implemented system uses the WAVEWATCH III model for wave generation and swell propagation, covering the entire North Atlantic basin, and the SWAN model for wave generation and propagation in the coastal areas. WAVEWATCH III provides the wave boundary conditions for the areas simulated by SWAN, which in turn provides the boundary conditions for the high resolution areas. Although there are results available for the Portuguese west coast and Spanish northwestern coast, they use different approaches and wind forcing data, and the present paper presents a consistent approach to identify differences among the various areas, by modelling them with the same models and using the same wind forcing and parameterizations of the SWAN model. The wind fields used in both models are from Era-Interim, a global atmospheric reanalysis data set produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the bathymetry used in high resolution areas are from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans. The model results are validated with various buoy's significant wave height, mean wave period and mean wave direction. Results are presented of the average wave power spatial distribution in the coarse SWAN domain for each month of the three years, and for the high resolution areas the spatial distribution wave energy is provided for winter and summer.

During the peak period of hurricane activity in the summer of 2010, vertical profiles of ozone using ozonesondes were taken downstream of tropical cyclones in the Western and Eastern Atlantic Ocean basin at Barbados and Cape Verde. Measurements are taken for tropical cyclones Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Julia and Igor. The measurements show an increase in ozone mixing ratios with air originating from the tropical cyclones at 5–10 km altitude. We suggest that observed lightning activity associated tropical cyclones and the subsequent production of NO X followed by upper level outflow and subsidence ahead of the tropical cyclones and aged continental outflow from West Africa thunderstorms produced observed increases in ozone mixing ratios. Hurricane Danielle showed the largest changes in ozone mixing ratio with values increasing from 25 ppb to 70 ppb between 22 and 25 August in the middle troposphere, near 450 hPa; warming and drying in the middle and lower troposphere. Measurements of ozone mixing ratios in Cape Verde show higher ozone mixing ratios prior to the passage of tropical storm Julia but low ozone mixing ratios and high relative humidity up to 300 hPa when the storm was in close proximity. This is due most likely the vertically transported from the marine boundary layer.

Concurrent with the rapid development of the market for catastrophe (cat) bonds, a steady decline in their risk premia has been observed. Whether the latter trend is consistent with the evolution of natural disasters risk is an open question. Indeed, a large share of outstanding risk capital in the cat bonds market appears to be exposed to some climate change-related risk as, for instance, hurricane risk, which global warming is expected to enhance. This paper addresses the above issue by assessing the global warming evidence, its implications for the natural environment and the drivers of cat bonds risk premia. We find that radiative forcing, i.e. the net insolation absorbed by the Earth, drives the warming trend in temperature anomalies and the trend evolution of natural phenomena, such as ENSO and Atlantic hurricanes, enhancing their disruptive effects. Hence, in the light of the ongoing contributions of human activity to radiative forcing, i.e., greenhouse gases emissions, natural disasters risk appears to be on a raising trend. Yet, the latter does not appear to have been accurately priced in the cat bonds market so far. In fact, while we find that the falling trend in cat bonds multiples is accounted by the expansionary monetary stance pursued by the Fed, we do also find evidence of significant undervaluation of natural disasters risk.

In 2017, climate-driven Atlantic hurricanes – Harvey, Irma, and Maria – produced harmful population health effects. Florida was one of the most significantly affected states. These hurricanes caused significant damage, but over time, lessons were revealed for opportunities to increase hurricane resilience. As a result, the Florida Hurricane Response Hub was established; this Hub was used as one of five technical assistance centers comprising the Hurricane Response Hub Initiative, which were established in areas most affected by hurricanes. The Initiative sought to improve population health through the dissemination of education and other resources by facilitating training, technical assistance, and information sharing to improve preparedness, response, and recovery of the public health workforce. The overall goal of the project was to coordinate efforts among federal, state, and local public health organizations to enhance ongoing environmental and occupational health recovery efforts, which improves workforce capacity and institutional knowledge to improve disaster-related recovery for future hurricanes.

The starting point for EURO-BASIN were discussions at the EurOcean conference in Hamburg (Germany) in 2000 focusing on perspectives for European and North American research cooperation in the North Atlantic. This conference resulted in a memorandum of understanding signed between the USA National Science Foundation (NSF) and the European Commission (EC), agreeing to support collaborative research in the North Atlantic. However, it was not until 2005 when funds from the USA NSF and the European network of excellence EURO-OCEANS allowed for European, USA and Canadian scientists to meet in Reykjavik, Iceland (Wiebe et al., 2009), to start the process leading to the development of an International North Atlantic Basin scale Science Plan. Subsequently, support for the BASIN community to hold three meetings in 2007–2008 was obtained from the US NSF and a EU 6th Framework Specific Support Action (SSA) BASIN. These meetings, which built upon the issues identified in Reykjavik, were held in Hamburg (Germany), Chapel Hill (USA), and Amsterdam (the Netherlands). The outcome of these meetings was the International BASIN Science Plan, published as a GLOBEC report (Wiebe et al., 2009). Alas, while the science needs were collectively agreed upon, the difficulty of funding coordinating research (both in time and in concept) from both sides of the Atlantic was not easily resolved. Moving ahead, the European Commission issued a call for proposals, which targeted some of the issues outlined in the International BASIN Science Plan. Specifically, the call was focused scientifically “on the need to improve the understanding of the variability, potential impacts, and feedbacks of global change and anthropogenic forcing on the structure, function and dynamics of the ecosystems of the North Atlantic Ocean and associated shelf seas and on their capacity to provide services”. The successful project needed to provide new data, analyses and the models necessary to: (1) Understand and simulate the population structure and dynamics of broadly distributed, and biogeochemically and trophically important plankton and fish species, to resolve the impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems and the feedbacks to the earth system. (2) Develop understanding and strategies that would contribute to improving and advancing ocean management (ecosystem approach). In response to this call, the successful EURO-BASIN consortium was formed (European Basin Scale Analysis and Synthesis), using as its starting point the BASIN International Science plan. While a similar funding mechanism was not forthcoming from the North American side, North American scientists were able to take advantage of opportunities to participate in EURO-BASIN cruise programs, meetings and to publish joint articles (e.g., this Special Issue).

In the present paper a hindcast system is applied to the analysis of the Atlantic European coast as a whole with specific nestings for sites of interest in each country. The areas included in this study were: Ireland west coast, UK South Western coast, France west coast, northern Spain and Canary Islands and Portugal's continental coast. Two contemporary spectral models were used: WaveWatch III for wave generation, covering almost the entire North Atlantic basin, which outputs are then used as boundary conditions for SWAN which simulates wave transformation in coastal areas. Wind fields were taken from the ERA Interim data base. Results are validated against buoy data. These validations allowed a reformulation, when needed, of the model's configurations in order to better tune its outcomes to the real data. Using the energy transport vectors given by SWAN, the wave power is afterwards calculated and an energy resource assessment is done for a period of several years.

Deciphering how the climate system has controlled North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity through the Holocene will require a larger observational network of prehistoric hurricane activity. Problematically, the tropical North Atlantic is dominated by carbonate landscapes that typically preserve poorer quality coastal sediment records in comparison to their temperate-region counterparts (e.g., sedimentation continuity and rate). Coastal karst basins (CKBs), such as sinkholes, blueholes, and underwater caves, are widely distributed on carbonate platforms and contain overlooked sedimentary records. Here we present a millennium of hurricane deposits on the Little Bahama Bank archived in a 165 cm core that was extracted from 69 m below sea level in a bluehole on Great Abaco Island, The Bahamas. The coarse-grained overwash deposits associated with both hurricanes Jeanne (2004) and Floyd (1999) were identified using radioisotopes (137Cs, 14C, 210Pb), and indicate that the bluehole is sensitive to hurricane-induced sedimentation. Over the last millennium, the Little Bahama Bank experienced heightened hurricane activity from 1350 to 1650 AD. The simplest explanation for this active interval is that favorable climate conditions (El Nino, West African Monsoon, and sea surface temperatures) encouraged North Atlantic hurricane activity at that time. However, asynchronous hurricane activity at similar latitudes in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico suggest that regional oceanography has modulated or amplified regional hurricane activity over the last millennium.

An increasing growth of unconventional gas production in the U.S. has gradually turned it into a potential gas exporter. In near future, increasing LNG exports from the U.S. coupled with the capacity of the Panama Canal will change the LNG market. The Panama Canal expansion is the key to the change because the route via this canal reduces the voyage by 7000 nautical miles to Japan from the Gulf of Mexico. Applying the World Gas Model from the University of Maryland, this paper investigates the potential effects of varying Panama Canal tolls on the LNG markets via six scenarios of possible Panama Canal tariffs. Results are compared and examined with the focus on prices, LNG flows, and supply displacement. We find a significant LNG volume tradeoff between Asian and European gas markets. The U.S. and Trinidad & Tobago are key players due to their LNG exports displacing to some extent, flows from the Middle East, Africa, and other Asian suppliers to the Japanese and South Korean markets. Japanese & South Korean prices are significantly reduced when the Panama Canal tariff is low due to more supplies from the Atlantic Basin. As the toll increases, the U.S. and Trinidad &Tobago switch their exports to Europe rather than these markets in East Asia. European prices are improved when that region gets more LNG from the Atlantic basin.

A numerical study of the wave energy distribution around Canary Islands is presented. For this study the WAVEWATCH III model is used to generate waves for the entire North Atlantic basin and the SWAN model is used to determine the transformation of the waves in the Canary Islands. The model results are validated with measured data from the Gran Canaria buoy, over a three-year period, and satellite data for the period of one year. The computed results show a good agreement with data from buoy and satellites. Wave energy resource climatology is evaluated and characterized in terms of probability of occurrence of sea states for the three year period.

Despite facing serious threats of extinction in the Eastern Pacific, the leatherback turtle ( Dermochelys coriacea ) appears to be thriving in the Atlantic basin based on increasing nest counts at several rookeries. In particular, Florida’s nest numbers have been increasing by 10.2% per year since standardized counts began in 1979. The US Recovery Plan for leatherbacks calls for vital rates and population parameters to be determined for the three leatherback rookeries under US jurisdiction: St. Croix (USVI), Puerto Rico, and the east coast of Florida. Based on mark-recapture data gathered over eleven years, we determined important population parameters for nesting female leatherbacks at Juno Beach, one of the most densely nested beaches in Florida. Average annual survival was 88.9%. The average female nesting population size for Juno Beach is estimated at 100 ± 41 individuals each season; statewide we expect the estimate to be higher. The average remigration interval was 2.7 ± 1.0 years. In addition, we report observed clutch frequency (2.1 ± 1.4 clutches/year), estimated clutch frequency (4.4 ± 1.1 nests/year), and observed internesting period (10.2 ± 1.3 days between nests). The probability of observing an individual female at least once during the season was 73.0%, likely due to variable site fidelity, even though sea turtles do exhibit natal homing. Using opportunistic observations at additional beaches, we found that 72 females observed nesting within the Juno Beach study area were also observed nesting outside the study area. Thirty-three individuals laid clutches both inside and outside the survey area within a single season; these nests were separated by as much as 463.5 km. Although the population in Florida is relatively small compared to other rookeries throughout the Western Atlantic, it is increasing at such a rapid pace that it has the potential to become more important regionally, thereby contributing to the abundance of leatherbacks in the Atlantic.

Multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean and its importance to the Earth's climate system has been the subject of study in the physical oceanography field for decades. Only recently, however, has the importance of this variability, termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or AMO, been recognized by ecologists as an important factor influencing ecosystem state. A growing body of literature suggests that AMO-related fluctuations are associated with shifts in ecological boundaries, primary productivity, and a number of ecologically and economically important coastal and marine populations across the Atlantic basin. Although the AMO is a basin-wide index of SST, the drivers of ecosystem change encompass more than temperature anomalies and the mode of action differs within each ecosystem. A common theme in assessing ecosystem change indicates that fluctuations in water masses and circulation patterns drive shifts in ecosystem states, but the magnitude and rate of change is dependent on the physical characteristics of the region. Because of the wide ranging geographic effects of the AMO, and considering its multidecadal nature, a more complete understanding of its causes and effects would allow scientists and managers to more effectively inform ecosystem-based management across the Atlantic Basin.

The accurate prediction of a barrier island response to storms is challenging because of the complex interaction between hydro- and morphodynamic processes that changes at different stages during an event. Assessment of the predictive skill is further complicated because of uncertainty in the hydraulic forcing, initial conditions, and the parameterization of processes. To evaluate these uncertainties, we investigated the morphological change that occurred during two Atlantic hurricane events on two barrier islands at Matanzas (Florida) and Fire Island (New York) with differing topographies and forcing conditions. We used the morphodynamic model XBeach with hydrodynamic forcing extracted from a regional coupled D-Flow FM/SWAN model. The XBeach model was initialized with a spatially varying roughness map derived from a land cover classification map generated with supervised conditional-random-field classification. The model was supplemented with a dynamic roughness module recognizing that, under extreme conditions, vegetation can be washed away or buried by sediment. For the Fire Island case, the modeled spatial extent of roughness reduction as a proxy for vegetation removal during the storm was accurate. For both the Fire Island and Matanzas cases, the model predicted erosion and deposition volumes and dune-crest lowering well. The occurrence of breach formation was also predicted by the model, but the exact location of these breaches did not match observations. Variations of 10% in boundary conditions (surge, wave direction, significant wave height, and bay water levels) produced regime shifts in modeled barrier island response. These results not only stress the critical role of boundary conditions in morphodynamic model skill, but also show the limitations of single deterministic model runs in forecasting impact.

This paper presents a numerical study of the wave energy distribution in the western French coast, in particular in its pilot zone, as part of an European project, aiming to characterize the wave energy in the Atlantic coast of Europe. For this study two third generation state of the art models are used. A generation model, WAVEWATCH III is used to generate waves for the entire North Atlantic basin, so as to properly account for the swell that arrives at the location and a transformation model, SWAN, models the evolution of the waves in the French coast, as a result of wind forcing. The model results are validated with measured data from three buoys for three-year period between 1998 and 2000. A good agreement was observed between the measurements and the calculated parameters. Descriptive statistics are presented, which give an idea of the variability of the resources.

In the line of Cossette et al. (2003), we adapt and refine known Markovian-type risk models of Asmussen (1989) and Lu and Li (2005) to a hurricane risk context. These models are supported by the findings that El Nino/Southern Oscillation (as well as other natural phenomena) influence both the number of hurricanes and their strength. Hurricane risk is thus broken into three components: frequency, intensity and damage where the first two depend on the state of the Markov chain and intensity influences the amount of damage to an individual building. The proposed models are estimated with Florida hurricane data and several risk measures are computed over a fictitious portfolio.

Living gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) are key consumers in benthic communities of the North Pacific Ocean. Gray whales, however, also inhabited the North Atlantic Ocean until recent historical times (~ 1600 AD), leaving open questions about their historical ecology in nearshore communities of this basin. Here we report the discovery of fossil remains from two individual gray whales recovered from underwater excavations at separate localities of JY Reef, an offshore reef situated approximately 32 kilometers (km) offshore of St. Catherine's Island, Georgia, U.S.A. Both mandibles are diagnostic to the living E. robustus. Radiometric dating of shells from JY Reef suggests an approximate age range of these two specimens between 42 and 30 thousand years before present (ka). Morphological measurements of the preserved elements indicate that both of the mandibles likely belonged to immature and possibly yearling individuals. Collectively, these findings are among the oldest occurrences of gray whales in the North Atlantic basin, and their presence at temperate latitudes provides limited support for the hypothesis that Atlantic gray whales used a southerly breeding area at the end of a migratory pathway, by analog with lagoonal breeding environments of Baja California, Mexico, for the extant California gray whales, and the breeding areas for the extant North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) off the Georgia coast today. Stronger support for this latter contention may stem from future fossil discoveries in the region, as well as ancillary lines of evidence, such as the remains of species-specific ectoparasites and/or ancient DNA (aDNA).

Rainwater dissolved organic matter (DOM) was characterized in two sequential coastal rainstorms of different geographic origins: an Atlantic hurricane (Hurricane Irene [2011]) and a terrestrial squall. Using a multiproxy approach incorporating electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR), stable carbon isotope analysis, and excitation–emission fluorescence spectroscopy, we demonstrate the unique composition of marine-derived organic matter in Atlantic hurricane rainwater. Hurricane Irene rainwater DOM (DOMIrene) was molecularly distinct from that of the terrestrial squall (DOMsquall). For example, δ13CDOC of Irene rainwater was − 19.2 ± 0.13‰ while that of the squall was − 26.3 ± 0.01‰. Peaks assigned using FTICR which were unique to DOMIrene contained a greater relative number of molecular formulas containing nitrogen (representing any of several isomeric CHON, CHONS, CHONP compounds) relative to those unique to the DOMsquall. Although there was insufficient rainwater available to test DOMsquall for its bioavailability, a simple room-temperature incubation of Irene rainwater over 30 days in the dark resulted in its dissolved organic carbon decreasing from 2.3 to 1.5 mg L− 1. When coupled with the abundant precipitation generally-associated with hurricanes, these results suggest that marine DOM in rainwater may exert unique but substantial impacts to organic matter in coastal aquatic ecosystems.

Effects of climate forcing are examined for 15 large marine ecosystems bordering the North Atlantic basin. Trends in multi-decadal time-series data of temperature, chlorophyll, primary productivity, nutrients, and fisheries yields, differed among the LMEs. Responses to climate warming varied between northwestern and northeastern Atlantic LMEs, with warming rates influencing changes in northeast Atlantic LME plankton production and fisheries yields more directly than in LMEs of the northwest Atlantic, where warming rates are lower. In contrast, negative effects of nutrient over-enrichment in relation to harmful algal blooms and hypoxic conditions were greater in the northwest Atlantic LMEs. Forecasts suggest significant increases in nutrient over-enrichment of North Atlantic LMEs by 2050. Fishery time-series analyses suggest increases in fishery yields for sub-arctic LMEs, and declines in LMEs of more southerly latitudes.

Atlantic Basin Refining, Inc. (ABR) went through a tumultuous legal battle for the right to purchase and reopen an oil refining complex in St. Croix (US Virgin Islands), once the largest refinery in the world, which had fallen on hard times and closed in 2012. Having been offered a settlement that could make reopening of the refinery a possibility, ABR has to consider whether it should still pursue purchasing and reopening it. ABR is faced with uncertainty, such as how much the restart will cost, how long it will take, and what oil prices will be in the future.

The peak factor is a critical parameter in estimating short duration peak gust speeds. An analysis of sixty-four 10 m wind field records measured during the 1999–2008 Atlantic hurricane seasons shows a mildly positive non-Gaussian trend in the skewness of velocity with increasing longitudinal turbulence intensity ( I u ). Kurtosis values exhibit slightly platykurtic behavior (kurtosis values less than 3) in open exposure but trend toward Gaussian as I u increases. Average peak factors are computed from the data, stratified by wind speed and turbulence regime. Gust factor models are also examined; differences between the theoretical and observed zero up-crossing rates and power spectral density functions are used to discuss uncertainty propagation in the model. The results indicate that a non-Gaussian peak factor in theoretical peak gust (or gust factor) calculation appears to be warranted. Additional field measurements in built-up terrain are required to validate this finding.

The objective of the present work was to develop and validate a flexible wave prediction system able to provide information about the wave conditions at the entrance of ports. Although the method is general, the present application addresses the major Portuguese ports, namely Leixoes and Sines that are located in the northern and in the central part, respectively, of the Portuguese continental coast. A multilevel system for modelling the wave transformation (SWAN based) is implemented in the entire west Iberian nearshore and validated with buoy data. The ocean forcing is provided by WAM model simulations in an implementation over the entire North Atlantic basin. Both hindcast, nowcast and forecast schemes are evaluated and discussed. Focusing then on the two target areas, an analysis of some coastal processes such as diffraction and triad wave–wave interactions, as they are reflected in the simulations based on spectral models, is also performed. Finally, some average energetic and storm scenarios were also considered for the two harbours.

The Florida Coastal Monitoring Program (FCMP) is a multi-university field research program that was founded in 1998 to study the near-surface wind and rain characteristics of Atlantic hurricanes and their effects on coastal infrastructure. The FCMP has three research thrusts: (1) characterization of surface wind and wind-driven rain conditions, (2) quantification of wind induced component and cladding pressures, and (3) assessment of damage to evaluate the performance of single family homes and the building codes and standards that guided their construction. This paper presents an overview of the program, including the motivation for the field research, a review of the program's scientific objectives, the history of the program from 1999–2010, and descriptions of the instrument systems and supporting infrastructure. A case study of Hurricane Frances (2004) is presented, and the current and potential uses of the collected wind field data are discussed.

Complimenting modern records of tropical cyclone activity with longer historical and paleoclimatological records would increase our understanding of natural tropical cyclone variability on decadal to centennial time scales. Tropical cyclones produce large amounts of precipitation with significantly lower δ 18 O values than normal precipitation, and hence may be geochemically identifiable as negative δ 18 O anomalies in marine carbonate δ 18 O records. This study investigates the usefulness of coral skeletal δ 18 O as a means of reconstructing past tropical cyclone events. Isotopic modeling of rainfall mixing with seawater shows that detecting an isotopic signal from a tropical cyclone in a coral requires a salinity of ~ 33 psu at the time of coral growth, but this threshold is dependent on the isotopic composition of both fresh and saline end-members. A comparison between coral δ 18 O and historical records of tropical cyclone activity, river discharge, and precipitation from multiple sites in Puerto Rico shows that tropical cyclones are not distinguishable in the coral record from normal rainfall using this approach at these sites.

Detailed observations from surface layer experiments in the path of Atlantic hurricanes are presented in this paper. The purpose is to obtain information that will aid in the reduction of hurricane wind damage to residential structures by providing input for wind tunnel and full-scale flow simulation experiments that assess wind loads on these structures under hurricane conditions. The contents of the paper document the mean flow and turbulence characteristics from data recorded by nine mobile instrumented towers deployed at coastal locations near the anticipated path of each of the three hurricanes (Katrina, Rita, and Wilma) that made landfall on the US coast along the Gulf of Mexico in 2005. Wind data were collected at two elevations (5 and 10 m) from these towers by the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program, a joint research program led by the University of Florida and the Institute for Business and Home Safety.

A 100-year climatology of tropical storms and hurricanes within a 200-km buffer was developed to study their impacts on coral reefs of the Flower Garden Banks (FGB) and neighboring banks of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The FGB are most commonly affected by tropical storms from May through November, peaking in August–September. Storms approach from all directions; however, the majority of them approach from the southeast and southwest, which suggests a correlation with storm origin in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. A storm activity cycle lasting 30–40 years was identified similar to that known in the Atlantic basin, and is similar to the recovery time for impacted reefs. On average there is 52% chance of a storm approaching within 200 km of the FGB every year, but only 17% chance of a direct hit every year. Storm-generated waves 5–25 m in height and periods of 11–15 s induce particle speeds of 1–4 m s −1 near these reefs. The wave–current flow is capable of transporting large (∼3 cm) sediment particles, uplifting the near-bottom nepheloid layer to the banks tops, but not enough to break coral skeletons. The resulting storm-driven turbulence induces cooling by heat extraction, mixing, and upwelling, which reduces coral bleaching potential and deepens the mixed layer by about 20 m. Tropical storms also aid larvae dispersal from and onto the FGB. Low storm activity in 1994–2004 contributed to an 18% coral cover increase, but Hurricane Rita in 2005 reduced it by 11% and brought coral cover to nearly pre-1994 levels. These results suggest that the FGB reefs and neighboring reef banks act as coral refugia because of their offshore location and deep position in the water column, which shields them from deleterious effects of all but the strongest hurricanes.

The local future climate conditions in Morocco under the SRES scenario A1B are studied by using two 30-year time-slice simulations performed by the variable resolution configuration of the global circulation model ARPEGE-Climate. The spatial resolution ranges between 50 and 60 km over the whole country. Firstly, the link between local precipitation and weather regimes in the North Atlantic basin is investigated in terms of mean precipitation and the frequencies of occurrence for wet and intense precipitation days. Then a statistical downscaling approach that uses large-scale fields to construct local scenarios of future climate change is validated in the case of Moroccan winter precipitation. The outputs of experiments carried out from an ensemble of regional climate models are used to assess the uncertainties associated to future climate change. These dynamical downscaling outputs have been also used to test the robustness of the results related to the statistical downscaling technique. Our results concerning the future climate conditions over Morocco show not solely a decrease in mean precipitation but also a change in the precipitation distribution and in extreme events.