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International audience; This paper presents the development of an ontology for opinion mining in French corpora. Since ontology construction from scratch is expensive and time consuming, the model is built by adapting an existing ontology modeling appraisal categories in English. The construction method consists of two main steps: first, the ontology of appraisals is translated in French by using a conceptto-concept approach; then different adaptation strategies are implemented to improve the result of this translation. Adaptation strategies are based on text mining, weakly supervised methods and the use of WordNet to refine the model. The goal of the adaptation phase is to cope with limitations of concept-to-concept translation, to integrate concepts and relations from external corpora and resources, and to build a model that captures various features of opinions. The ontology was designed and build to incorporate linguistic and extra linguistic information on the description of opinions in French. The model was validated by using both expert insights to validate the relevance of concepts and relations and formal criteria to describe the ontology qualities for practical use.

International audience; The embeddedness of entrepreneurs in a network of social relations has been largely documented by the literature since the seminal work of Granovetter. In different contexts, it has been shown that the entrepreneurial network plays a central role in the creation of their business and provides a variety of resources. Few studies, however, seek to understand the motivations of entrepreneurs when they mobilize a tie, and the effects of these mobilizations on the content and quality of this relationship. From a fieldwork undertaken in Morocco, we implement a “quantified narratives” method which codes each sequence of access to a resource in the course of the start-up in order to map the network of relationships of young innovative entrepreneurs. We go further than previous studies using this method in that we develop a multivariate model that enables us to build hypotheses from qualitative material analysis and to test them econometrically. This case study highlights more generally the interest of mixed methods in analyzing complex mechanisms like network mobilization and their motivations. We analyze the different logics which led entrepreneurs to the mobilization of the network at the time of the creation of their business. The main result that emerges is that the family is sidelined in obtaining funding. This original result is indicative of the tension faced by these young Moroccan entrepreneurs: the need to grow their business is sometimes in contradiction with the desire to create through it a space of autonomy gained on the family.

The Covid-19 crisis has recently rekindled discussions about debt relief, leading official lenders to grant a moratorium on low-income countries’ external public debt service. Private creditors, which had massively invested in LICs (especially in Africa), have been so far relatively spared. But would they keep lending to these countries if a new wave of debt write-offs were to occur? Building on the two largest debt relief programs for LICs, namely the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC) and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), we investigate whether debt relief leads international private creditors to withdraw or to resume lending to beneficiary governments. Using a difference-in-differences approach, our results suggest that debt relief has fostered borrowing from private creditors, and identify the absence of reputational effects and the short-term horizon of private creditors as the key drivers that made renewed access to the credit market possible.

Introduction In the KEYNOTE-024 trial, pembrolizumab demonstrated significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) versus Standard-of-Care (SoC) platinum-based doublets for first-line treatment of PD-L1 -positive (≥50%) metastatic Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients with no EGFR mutations or ALK translocations. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus SoC platinum-based chemotherapy from the French healthcare system perspective. Methods A three-state partitioned-survival model was adapted to project outcomes and costs of squamous and non-squamous NSCLC patients respectively, over a 10-year time horizon. Clinical and utility data were collected from the trial. A network meta-analysis was performed to consider platinum-based triplets also used for non-squamous NSCLC. Direct medical costs were considered based on ressources identified from the trial and literature. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 4% per year. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated as cost per Life Year (LY) and cost per Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY). Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to assess the robustness of results. Results For squamous NSCLC, pembrolizumab was projected to increase life expectancy of patients by 0.93 LY (11 months), and 0.74 QALY (9 months) for an incremental cost of €62,032 compared with platinum-based doublets. The ICER of pembrolizumab versus platinum-based doublets was €66,825/LY and €84,097/QALY. For non-squamous NSCLC, pembrolizumab was projected to increase life expectancy of patients by 0.85–1.32 LYs (10.2–15.8 months) and 0.64–1.02 QALYs (7.7–12.2 months) for an incremental cost varying from €-14,947-+47,064 depending on the specific comparator. The ICER of pembrolizumab versus platinum-based chemotherapy with paclitaxel plus bevacizumab was €62,846/LY and €78,729/QALY; regimens including pemetrexed were dominated. Results were most sensitive to extrapolations of survival outcomes and assumptions for continued effectiveness and treatment duration of pembrolizumab. Conclusions Pembrolizumab appears cost-effective versus SoC chemotherapy for first-line treatment of PD-L1-positive (50%) metastatic NSCLC patients in France, assuming willingness-to-pay under 100,000€/QALY (OECD threshold in the discussion section).

International audience; We investigate the impact of cognitive load on occupational injuries using survey data. Cognitive load is defined in the literature as a tax on bandwidth which reduces the amount of cognitive resources available for engaging in logical reasoning. We proxy cognitive load with the number of nonprofessional tasks that individuals perform every day, conditional on the time they spend on them. The underlying assumption is that when individuals perform a large number of those tasks, this requires mental organization which keeps part of their working memory busy. We show that cognitive load increases the risk of occupational injury for both males and females. The effect is stronger for individualsin high-risk occupations and, among those, for low-educated workers.

Climate change is one of the greatest economic challenges of our time. Given the scale of the problem, the question of whether a carbon tax should be introduced is hotly-debated in policy circles. This paper studies the design of a carbon tax when environmental factors, such as air carbon-dioxide emissions (CO2), directly affect agents’ marginal utility of consumption. Our first result is that the optimal tax is determined by the shadow price of CO2 emissions. We then use asset-pricing theory to estimate this implicit price in the data and find that the optimal tax is pro-cyclical. It is therefore optimal to use the carbon tax to “cool down” the economy during booms and stimulate it in recessions. The optimal policy not only generates large welfare gains, it also reduces risk premiums and raises the average risk-free real rate. The effect of the tax on asset prices and welfare critically depends on the emission-abatement technology.

International audience; To allow for the production of timber while preserving conservation values, forestry regulations in the Congo Basin have made Forest Management Plans (FMP) mandatory in logging concessions. This paper uses original high-resolution maps of forest-cover changes and official records on the activities of logging concessions to analyze the impact of FMP on deforestation in this region. We apply quasi-experimental and difference-indifference approaches to evaluate the change in deforestation in concessions managed under an approved FMP. We find that between 2000 and 2010, deforestation was 74% lower in concessions with an FMP compared to others. Building on a theory of change, further analyses revealed that this decrease in deforestation takes time to occur and is highest around communities located in and nearby logging concessions, and in areas close to previous deforestation. These findings suggest that FMP help avoid deforestation by allowing logging companies to rotate cycles of timber extraction, thereby avoiding the overexploitation of areas that were previously logged, and by the better regulation of access to concessions by closing former logging roads to limit illegal activities such as shifting agriculture, hunting and the illegal harvest of timber or fuel-wood.

Background Projections estimate an increase of 50% of the incidence of lung cancer by 2030. Early-stage non-small cell lung cancer represented 19% of NSCLC cases diagnosed in the US between 2005 and 2011. There is rising evidence in favour of lung cancer screening, which will reduce the occurrence of later-stage lung cancers while raising the incidence of early-stage NSCLC. Current guidelines state that for early-stage NSCLC, surgical resection should be performed, and stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) is an option for patients who are non-medically operable. In this study, we compared the cost-effectiveness of SBRT with lobectomy in medically operable patients. Methods We developed a Markov model based on the survival results of two randomized studies comparing SBRT and video assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy in early-stage NSCLC, to describe survival and treatment related complications of patients treated for early-stage NSCLC. This analysis was conducted from the French payer perspective on a lifetime perspective. Utility values, recurrence risks, and costs were adapted from the literature. Deterministic (DSA) and probabilistic (PSA) sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of the assumptions made. Results The Markov model developed was consistent with survival data reported in the pool analysis of the randomized studies. SBRT and lobectomy total costs were 9,234.15€ and 10,726.98€, respectively, and the quality-adjusted life expectancies were 16.35 and 15.80 QALYs, respectively. The DSA, run on every assumption made, revealed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was mainly sensitive to the decrement of utility caused by treatment related complications and initial cost of both surgery and SBRT. The PSA showed that SBRT had the highest probability of cost-effectiveness compared to lobectomy. Conclusions This is the first medico-economic study evaluating SBRT and lobectomy in stage I NSCLC based on randomized studies, and our analyses suggest that SBRT is dominant over lobectomy in operable early-stage NSCLC treatment. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed that this result was robust and that it was not modified by the assumptions made in the Markov model building.

International audience; In October 2015 the European Parliament has established a Market Stability Reserve (MSR) in the Phase 4 of the EU-ETS, as part of the 2030 framework for climate policies. In this paper we model the EU-ETS in presence of the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) as it is defined by that decision and investigate the impact that such a measure has in terms of permits price, output production and banking strategies. To do so we build an inter-temporal model in which polluting firms competing in an homogeneous good market are price takers in a permits market and face an uncertain demand. Our main finding is that the MSR succeeds in increasing the permits' price correcting an excess supply (and conversely decreasing it in case of excess demand). However, when the output demand is stochastic, the MSR may alter the arbitrage conditions that determine permits' prices. In some cases which depend on the extend of the demand variation, unintended effects on the price pattern appear. This in turns may adversely affect welfare.

Results from a randomized experiment conducted with teenage schoolgirls in Cameroon suggest that HIV prevention interventions can be effective at reducing the incidence of teen pregnancy in the following 9-12 months by over 25 percent. We find little difference in effectiveness between one-time, one-hour sessions delivered directly to students by specialized consultants and sessions delivered through regularschool staff trained over two days by specialized consultants. We also find little difference between the standard “Abstain, Be Faithful, Use Condoms” curriculum and an enriched curriculum that includes informationon the heightened risk of cross-generational sex. Lastly, a one-time, one-hour self-administered questionnaire on HIV and sexual behavior has an equally large impact on teen pregnancy. These results suggest that rural teenage schoolgirls’ sexual behavior is highly responsive to even small interventions that make the risks of HIV and pregnancy salient. We find no effects among urban schoolgirls, who are more exposed to information and experience much lower rates of teenage pregnancy under the statusquo.

Jacks et al. (2011) offer an alternative to price gaps to quantify trade costs. Implementing a method which consists in deducing international trade costs from trade flows, they argue that the reduction in trade costs was the main driving force of trade growth during the first globalization (1870-1913), whereas economic expansion was the main driving force during the second globalization (1950-2000). We argue that this important result is driven by the use of an ad hoc aggregation method. What Jacks et al. (2011) capture is the difference in the relative starting trade of dyads experiencing faster trade growth in the first and second globalization. More generally, we cast doubts on the possibility to reach conclusions of such nature with a method that infers trade costs from trade flows, and then uses these costs to explain trade flows. We argue that it can only rephrase the information already contained in openness ratios.

International audience; Objectives : The aim of this study is to provide information on changes in mental health among disadvantaged immigrants from Sub-Saharan Africa in the Greater Paris area and their level of information about Covid-19.MethodsPrior to the Covid-19 epidemic, the Makasi community-based cohort followed 850 immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa in the Greater Paris area. Between the 1st of April and the 7th of June 2020, all participants scheduled for a follow-up survey were systematically included into an additional COVID-19-related wave of data collection (N = 100). We compared participants' type of housing, level of food insecurity, work and mental health (PHQ9) before and during the first COVID-19-related lockdown, using paired-Mc Nemar chi-2 tests. We next described their level of information on Covid-19 and policy measures, broken down by sex.ResultsAmong the 100 participants, 68% had no legal residence permit. Food insecurity was more often reported during lockdown than before (62% vs 52%). 9% of participants had a score indicative of severe depression (PHQ9) before lockdown and 17% afterwards (p = 0.17). Only 51% knew about the possibility of asymptomatic transmission of the COVID-19 virus. Conclusions : This study brings original information on a hard-to-reach population group. Our results suggest that the lockdown had a detrimental impact on various economic and mental health aspects among disadvantaged migrants residing in the Greater Paris area.

In this paper we analyze the impact of an increase in the local supply of immigrants on firms’ outcomes, allowing for heterogeneous effects across firms. Using micro-level data on French manufacturing firms spanning the period 1995–2005, we show that a supply-driven increase in the share of foreign-born workers in a French departement (a small geographic area) increased the total factor productivity of firms in that departement . We also find this effect to be significantly stronger for firms with low initial productivity and small size. The positive productivity effect of immigrants was also associated with faster growth of capital, larger exports, and higher wages for natives. Highly-skilled natives, in competition with immigrants, moved towards firms hiring fewer immigrants spreading positive productivity effects to those firms too.

International audience; France aims to boost the share of solar power generation in its electricity mix by 2030. When PV selfconsumption systems become economically competitive, end-users will be willing to switch to PV selfconsumption instead of using power from the grid. However, high penetration of distributed solar PV provokes a significant impact on the stability of electricity. The major systemic issues concern seasonal back-up power system associated with variable PV integration. Policymakers thus need to work on systemic solutions (e.g. load management, peak shaving) to support the large-scale integration of variable solar power. In this regards, this study aims to propose an innovative load management model based on the secondary application of residential batteries already installed for PV self-consumption. We performed a prospective economic analysis to identify potential system contribution of French residential PV-battery systems in 2030. The aim is to reduce systemic impact of distributed solar PV system integration thanks to collective use of distributed residential batteries for load management when they are not in use in winter. A sensitivity analysis has been conducted based on different projections of residential PV self-consumption in 2030 (RTE, Enedis). Our study then concludes with key messages and policy recommendations.

International audience; We examine project selection decisions of firms constrained in the number of projects they can handle at once. A new project opportunity arises every period. Taking on a project requires a commitment of uncertain duration, preventing the firm from selecting another project in subsequent periods until the commitment ends. In our dynamic game, when two firms are free of commitment, they move sequentially in random order. Symmetric pure strategy Markov perfect equilibria always exist. In equilibrium, the first mover strategically rejects some projects that are then selected by the second mover, even when the value of the project is the same for both firms. A monopolist rejects more projects, and adopts ones of higher average quality compared to the duopolist. Duopolists select too few projects compared to their jointly optimal behavior. We extend the model to allow for externalities, asymmetry, and n>2n>2 firms.

International audience; The context and the policy objective guiding the liberalisation of the electricity industry have changed significantly over recent decades. Policy priorities in favour of decarbonisation and maintaining security of supply have taken centre stage on the policy agenda in many countries. The emergence of new decentralised and variable technologies and the change toward fixed cost technologies have profound implications for market dynamics.

International audience; The economic growth of developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, requires affordable and reliable access to energy. Furthermore, in a context of global climate change, this access needs to be sustainable, resilient to weather and economic shocks, and equitable. This special issue is the follow up of the annual conference organized by the Climate Economics Chair on “Climate Energy and Development”. It regroups selected papers that shed light on the complex issue of improving access to energy in developing countries in an environmentally friendly and equitable way.

We analyze pay-as-you-go (PAYG) contracts subscribed by 10,120 consumers living in Benin (Sub-Saharan Africa) to purchase solar kits or panels for lighting and charging services. PAYG are flexible loans that allow fees payment through mobile banking. Most of the PAYG consumers live in well electrified areas (Cotonou, Porto Novo, Abomey Calavi, in the coastal zone). By estimating a very simple multinomial logit model, we find that these customers have a high probability to enroll in PAYG contracts. Living in urban and peri-urban areas, they use solar devices to substitute expensive and often unreliable grid electricity services. Consumers located in more periferic and less electrified areas (Savalou) have a low probability to default, as the substitution effect is weaker. Overall, in our case study, PAYG targets credit worthy consumers, in order to decrease the investment risk of the company providing solar devices. These results cast some doubts as to whether PAYG bridges the “last mile” electrification gap.

International audience; We empirically examine the role of shopping costs in consumer shopping behavior in a context of competing differentiated supermarkets that supply similar product lines. We develop and estimate a model of demand in which consumers can purchase multiple products from multiple stores in the same week, and incur transaction costs of dealing with supermarkets. We show that a similar model without shopping costs predicts a larger proportion of multistop shoppers and overestimates own-price elasticities and product markups. Further, we use our model along with a model of competition between supermarkets to study two practices that are commonly used by supermarkets: product delisting and loss-leader pricing. We show that the presence of shopping costs makes product delisting less profitable whereas it makes loss-leader pricing more profitable compared to a context in which consumers do not incur shopping costs.

I propose a new systemic-risk score to identify and regulate systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) by using an alternative weighting scheme based on volatility to aggregate all systemic-risk facets. Following a portfolio management approach, I equalize the risk contribution of each systemic-risk component to the cross-sectional volatility of my smart systemic-risk scores. To discriminate between several systemic-risk scores, I apply an axiomatic framework to express supervisor preferences among systemic-risk scores. Such preferences are based on the expected value of the cross-sectional dispersion of systemic-risk scores over the years.

By reasoning of composite indexes, several empirical tests have been implemented to compare countries on a macroeconomic scale for their vulnerability but rarely for their resilience. The results, based on different computation methods, do not systematically deal with sustainable development, though sustainable development has surged as a field of major interest in the last few decades. This paper develops a generic method to compute a composite index of vulnerability propensity and resilience capacity from a sustainable development perspective. A worldwide application shows that vulnerability and resilience are both policy responsive. There is then no determinism for a country to remain vulnerable or resilient. For any country and for any situation, from the worst to the ideal, the state of vulnerability-resilience may be an uncontrolled vulnerability, a contained vulnerability, a limited resilience or a built resilience. Contrary to the conclusion generally shared by scholars in development economics, Small Island Developing States are not specifically more prone to vulnerability than other countries.

International audience

International audience; In this article we focus on the so-called back-loading policy adopted by the European Commission to increase the carbon market price. This environmental measure consists of removing a share of the allowances allocated for a given period in order to reallocate some or all of them later on. To analyze the impact of the permits back-loading, we determine the CO2 price equilibrium with and without the policy measure, considering not only the market for permits but also the output market of regulated sectors. We propose a two-period model, where the market for permits is perfectly competitive, and the output market can be either competitive or oligopolistic. First, we define the condition under which banking from one period to another is optimal. This condition, that is the absence of arbitrage opportunities (AOA), depends not only from the period initial allocation but also on production market fundamentals. When this condition is satisfied, the market for emission is shown intertemporally efficient. Second, we point out that the back-loading measure may create inefficiencies or leave unaffected the permits price, if it alters the AOA.

This paper sheds light on the role of family networks in the dynamics of a West African labour market, i.e. in the transitions from unemployment to employment, from wage employment to self-employment, and from self-employment to wage employment. It investigates the effects of three dimensions of the family network on these transitions: its structure, the strength of ties and the resources embedded in the network. For this purpose, we use a first-hand survey conducted in Ouagadougou on a representative sample of 2000 households. Using event history data and very detailed information on family network, we estimate proportional hazard models for discrete-time data. We find that family networks have a significant effect on the dynamics of workers in the labour market and that this effect differs depending on the type of transition and the considered dimension of the family network. The network size appears to not matter much in the labour market dynamics. Strong ties however play a stabilizing role by limiting large transitions. Their negative effect on transitions is reinforced with high level of resources embedded in the network.

We analyze the relationship between Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) and external donors, with the aim of contributing to the debate on “mission drift” in microfinance. We assume that both the donor and the MFI are pro-poor, possibly at different extents. Borrowers can be (very) poor or wealthier (but still unbanked). Incentives have to be provided to the MFI to exert costly effort to identify the more valuable projects and to choose the right share of poorer borrowers (the optimal level of poor outreach). We first concentrate on hidden action. We show that asymmetric information can distort the share of very poor borrowers reached by loans, thus increasing mission drift. We then concentrate on hidden types, assuming that MFIs are characterized by unobservable heterogeneity on the cost of effort. In this case, asymmetric information does not necessarily increase the mission drift. The incentive compatible contracts push efficient MFIs to serve a higher share of poorer borrowers, while less efficient ones decrease their poor outreach.

The Earth is an evolutionary system that can be viewed as a Socio-Ecological System built around Monetary relations (SESM) because of the coupling of the Anthropocene Era with globalization. Given the simultaneous (environmental-economic) risks of "total uncertainty" and "systemic aftermath", several paradigmatic turns are required. Ecological economics is a cutting-edge field that tackles this issue. An integrative framework involving co-evolutionary modelling offers methods for addressing the regulation issue that arises from the significant uncertainty driven by global economic and ecological risks. We tackle the issue of adaptive policy for SESM regulation by answering the call for paradigmatic turns, which leads us to support tychastic vs. stochastic uncertainty, in time adaptation vs. optimal belated solutions, viability vs. stationary equilibrium, and interdisciplinarity and participatory processes in modelling and policy action. We describe step by step how to conceive SESM modelling through the lens of the mathematical viability theory (MVT), and we argue that this lens, when adjusted for anticipatory and adaptive governance (AAG), is relevant to examining sustainability for complex adaptive SESMs from a local or global perspective.

International audience; The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importers and oil-exporters. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series. We use the frequency approach proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973), that is the evolutionary co-spectral analysis. This method allows us to distinguish between short-run and medium-run dependence. In order to complete our study by analysing long-run dependence, we use the cointegration procedure developed by Engle and Granger (1987). We find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters׳ markets than in the importers׳ ones.

International audience; The need to collect data on governance-related issues has been growing since the 1990s. Demand gained momentum in 2015 with the adoption of SDG16 worldwide and Agenda 2063 in Africa. African countries played a key role in the adoption of SDG16 and are now leading the process of collecting harmonised household data on Governance, Peace and Security (GPS). Yet the possibility has recently been raised that sensitive survey data collected by government institutions are potentially biased due to self-censorship by respondents. This paper studies the potential bias in responses to what are seen as sensitive questions, here governance issues, in surveys conducted by public organisations. We compare Afrobarometer (AB) survey data, collected in eight African countries by self-professed independent institutions, with first-hand harmonised GPS survey data collected by National Statistics Offices (NSOs). We identify over 20 similarly worded questions on democracy, trust in institutions and perceived corruption. We first compare responses from AB survey respondents based on who they believe the survey sponsor to be. No systematic response bias is found between respondents who believe the government to be behind the AB survey and those who consider it to be conducted by an independent institution. Our estimations suggest that the observed residual differences are due to a selection bias on the observables, which is mitigated by propensity score matching procedures. The absence of a systematic self-censorship or attenuation bias is further evidenced by means of an experimental design, whereby responses from GPS surveys conducted by NSOs (the treatment) are compared with AB surveys sponsored by reportedly independent bodies. Our results provide evidence, at much higher levels of precision than other existing data sources, of the capacity and legitimacy of government-related organisations to collect data on governance as a matter of national interest and sovereignty.

National audience; Health expenditure growth is mostly driven by the dynamic of medical innovations and not by population ageing. Do we spend too much, or not enough, for health care? To answer to such a question, one needs an evaluation in monetary units of the value of health and longevity gains obtained as a counterpart of health expenditures. Computations implemented for the United States of America show that benefits due to health care are much larger than their costs. Instead of conceiving health expenditure as a cost to reduce, there is an urgent need in France for a public debate about their optimal level, i.e. the level in accordance with citizen preferences. However, gains in efficiency play a key role: to favor citizen adherence to taxes that finance equality in coverage, it is of major importance to improve efficiency in health care provision and public decision regarding treatments that are reimbursed.; La croissance des dépenses de santé résulte principalement de la dynamique des innovations médicales, et non du vieillissement démographique. Dépensons-nous trop, ou pas assez, pour la santé ? Répondre à une telle question nécessite d’évaluer en unités monétaires la valeur créée par les gains en santé et en longévité obtenus en contrepartie de ces dépenses. Pour les États-Unis, les résultats obtenus suggèrent que les gains associés aux dépenses de soins seraient très largement supérieurs à leur coût. Au lieu de concevoir d’emblée les dépenses de santé comme un coût à comprimer, il est urgent d’organiser, en France, un débat public sur leur niveau désirable, c’est-à-dire conforme aux préférences collectives. Mais il est crucial de gagner en efficience : afin de favoriser l’adhésion des citoyens aux prélèvements obligatoires nécessaires à un système de couverture équitable, il faut améliorer l’organisation du système de soins et les arbitrages sur le panier de soins remboursés.

France experienced the demographic transition before richer and more educated countries. This paper offers a novel explanation for this puzzle that emphasizes the diffusion of culture and information through internal migration. It tests how migration affected fertility by building a decennial bilateral migration matrix between French regions for 1861-1911. The identification strategy uses exogenous variation in transportation costs resulting from the construction of railways. The results suggest the convergence towards low birth rates can be explained by the diffusion of low-fertility norms by migrants, especially by migrants to and from Paris.

International audience; Financial transfers from parents to their adult children are a growing trend in contemporary societies, and this study investigates the relation of those transfers to their beneficiaries' health in France. In the 2005 nationally representative Gender and Generation Survey, nearly 6% of the subjects aged 25–49 years reported having received financial transfers during the last 12 months. Subjects who had achieved intergenerational upward mobility as well as those who had remained in the upper class were more likely to receive transfers, suggesting that parents rewarded those of their children who achieved most social success. After adjusting for a wide range of socio-demographic factors, subjects who had been given large transfers were much more likely to report very good health than subjects who had not been given anything. Findings were interpreted within the framework of sociological research on intergenerational transfers and that of lifecourse epidemiology.

International audience

International audience; This study investigates the relation between early life conditions and adult obesity in France, using a rich data set collected through the 2003 nationally representative Life History Survey. No salient factor emerged in men, while in women, after controlling for current socio-demographic characteristics, a relation was found between obesity and the following factors: father's occupation (OR=3.2 for women whose father was a clerical worker, versus those whose father was in a higher-level occupation); experience of economic hardship in childhood (OR=2.0), and; high parity (OR=2.1 for parities of more than 3 versus parity of 1). Neither early family history nor mother's working status surfaced as significant factors. Those findings highlight a definite gender pattern, with a strong association between early disadvantage and obesity in women, but not in men. Potential mechanisms are discussed, particularly the "habitus", the "thrifty phenotype" and the "feast-famine" hypotheses, and possible interactions with childbearing and motherhood. An integration of social and biological perspectives is needed to reach a better understanding of the processes involved, and to achieve progress in primary and secondary prevention.

International audience; BackgroundHome care for patients with multiple sclerosis relies largely on informal caregivers (ICs).MethodsWe assessed ICs objective burden (Informal Care Time, ICT) and ICs subjective burden (Zarit Burden Inventory, ZBI) and their explanatory factors.ResultsICs (n = 99) were spouses (70%), mean age 52 years, assisting disabled patients with a mean Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) of 5.5, with executive dysfunction (mean DysExecutive Questionnaire [DEX] of 25) and a duration of MS ranging from 1 to 44 years. Objective burden was high (mean ICT = 6.5 hours/day), mostly consisting of supervision time. Subjective burden was moderate (mean ZBI = 27.3). Multivariate analyses showed that both burdens were positively correlated with higher levels of EDSS and DEX, whereas co-residency and IC's female gender correlated with objective burden only and IC's poor mental health status with subjective burden only. When considering MS aggressiveness, it appeared that both burdens were not correlated with a higher duration of MS but rather increased for patients with severe and early cognitive dysfunction and for patients classified as fast progressors according to the Multiple Sclerosis Severity Scale.ConclusionMS disability course and IC's personal situation must be evaluated to understand the burden process and to implement adequate interventions in MS.

Using a four-country Mundell–Fleming model including portfolio and wealth effects, we explore the question whether some types of policy coordination could improve the outcomes of a financial shock like the Asian crisis. Time-consistent equilibria are computed: a Nash equilibrium, a target zone regime and a coalition solution. The best equilibrium for all authorities except the US government is the European coalition. Introducing a Stability Pact in Europe does not alter this result. Introducing a Fed less conservative than the ECB or the BoJ provokes a change in US preferences: both authorities give priority to the target zone regime.

We measure the impact of negative environmental, social and governance news oncorporate bond prices and credit default swap premiums for the Eurozone market. Eachfirm is affected at least by one piece of news related to its environmental, social andgovernance practices. Each news is then flagged with an indicator of importance. Ab-normal bond returns are computed by subtracting return from a matching portfolio to the return of the observed bond return. Abnormal credit default swap return is calculated with a regression of the observed bond return on an equiweighted index that isconstructed to transpose our bond universe on the credit default swap market. Severalparametric and non parametric tests do not show any significant impact of these negative events as a whole on corporate bond prices, even though there is evidence of some impact of two subcategories of social events. When considering all events, we find a slight but counter-intuitive decrease of the credit default swap premium within the 5following days of the event.REMARK: We did finish the database and have now more than 2000 events associated to 212 firms. Unfortunately, the calculation of the matching portfolios takes moretime than we expected due to the various constraints. However, we joined the first results for the credit default swap market (Table 7). It does not change the results we found with our subsample of 85 firms.

Systemic risk measures generally aim to identify systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) that would allow regulators to allocate macro-prudential capital requirements in order to reduce risk stemming from such institutions. Among widely-cited are the measures of tail dependence in financial institutions’ equity returns, such as ΔCoVaR of Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011) and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) of Acharya et al. (2010). This paper compares nonlinear and linear approaches to modeling return dependence in the estimation of the ΔCoVaR and MES. Our results show that while the refined and complicated estimation techniques are able to produce more accurate value of institution’s systemic risk contribution they do not greatly improve in terms of identifying SIFIs compared to simpler linear estimation method. Modeling dependence linearly sufficient to identify and rank SIFIs.

This paper addresses a lack of evidence on the impact of performance pay in the public sector by evaluating a pilot scheme of incentives in a major government agency. The incentive scheme was based on teams and covered five different targets, measured with varying degrees of precision. We use data from the agency's performance management system and personnel records, plus matched labour market data. We focus on three main issues: whether performance pay matters for public service workers, what the team basis of the scheme implies, and the impact of the differential measurement precision. We show that the use of performance pay did have a significant effect on the main quality measure (job placements), but that there was significant heterogeneity of response. This heterogeneity was patterned as one would expect from a free rider versus per monitoring perspective. We found that the incentive had a substantial positive effect in small teams, and a negative response in large teams. We found little impact of the scheme on quality measures, and we interpret this as due to the differential measurement technology. We show that the scheme in small teams had non-trivial effects on output, and our estimates suggest that the use of incentive pay is much more cost effective than a general pay rise.

International audience; We study the inflation hedging ability of individual stocks. While the poor inflation hedging ability of the aggregate stock market has long been documented, there is considerable heterogeneity in how individual stock returns covary with inflation. Stocks with good inflation-hedging abilities since 1990 have had higher returns, on average, than stocks with low inflation betas and tend to be drawn from the Oil and Gas and Technology sectors. However, we show that the time variation of stock inflation betas is substantial. This makes it difficult to construct portfolios of stocks that are good inflation hedges out of sample. This is true for portfolios constructed on past inflation betas, sector portfolios, and portfolios constructed from high-paying dividend stocks.

We derive several popular systemic risk measures in a common framework and show that they can be expressed as transformations of market risk measures (e.g., beta). We also derive conditions under which the different measures lead to similar rankings of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs). In an empirical analysis of US financial institutions, we show that (1) different systemic risk measures identify different SIFIs and that (2) firm rankings based on systemic risk estimates mirror rankings obtained by sorting firms on market risk or liabilities. One-factor linear models explain most of the variability of the systemic risk estimates, which indicates that systemic risk measures fall short in capturing the multiple facets of systemic risk.