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Climate change and particularly warming are significantly impacting marine ecosystems and the services they provided. Temperature, as the main factor driving all biological processes, may influence ectotherms metabolism, thermal tolerance limits and distribution species patterns. The joining action of climate change and local stressors (including the increasing human marine use) may facilitate the spread of non-indigenous and native outbreak forming species, leading to associated economic consequences for marine coastal economies. Marine aquaculture is one among the most economic anthropogenic activities threatened by multiple stressors and in turn, by increasing hard artificial substrates at sea would facilitate the expansion of these problematic organisms and face negative consequences regarding facilities management and farmed organisms' welfare. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are considered powerful tools for forecasting the future occurrences and distributions of problematic species used to preventively aware stakeholders. In the current study, we propose the use of combined correlative SDMs and mechanistic models, based on individual thermal performance curve models calculated through non-linear least squares regression and Bayesian statistics (functional-SDM), as an ecological relevant tool to increase our ability to investigate the potential indirect effect of climate change on the distributions of harmful species for human activities at sea, taking aquaculture as a food productive example and the benthic cnidarian Pennaria disticha (one of the most pernicious fouling species in aquaculture) as model species. Our combined approach was able to improve the prediction ability of both mechanistic and correlative models to get more ecologically informed "whole" niche of the studied species. Incorporating the mechanistic links between the organisms' functional traits and their environments into SDMs through the use of a Bayesian functional-SDM approach would be a useful and reliable tool in early warning ecological systems, risk assessment and management actions focused on important economic activities and natural ecosystems conservation.

Special issue Vectors of change in the marine environment.-- 11 pages, 7 figures, 1 table, supplementary data https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.01.002, Investigations on sexual reproduction of jellyfish are essential to understanding mechanisms and patterns of outbreaks formation. Pelagia noctiluca (Forskål, 1775) (Scyphozoa) is known as the predominant jellyfish species with direct development in Western and Central Mediterranean Sea. In this paper we used integrated morphometric, histological, and biochemical approaches to investigate the annual reproductive biology of P. noctiluca from the Strait of Messina (South Thyrrenian Sea), a key proliferation area for this species due to favourable temperatures and high productivity. From November 2011 to September 2012, P. noctiluca sexual reproduction occurred throughout the year, with two seasonal peaks (autumn, spring) of spawning and embryonic development. Gonads of female P. noctiluca were characterized by a large amount of mature eggs of small size (diameter < 200 μm) during high food availability, whereas fewer, larger eggs (diameter > 200 μm) were detected during low availability of prey. Two morphometric indexes were applied: the Gonad-Somatic Index (GSI, gonadal/somatic tissue dry weight ratio) and Fecundity Index (FI, n° eggs mm−2 * gonadal dry weight). The FI showed longer spawning periods than the GSI, providing a better causal-mechanistic explanation for the year-round occurrence of P. noctiluca in the Strait of Messina. Protein contents of the gonads changed seasonally, with the highest concentrations during the pre-spawning periods. We suggest that investigations on jellyfish sexual reproduction can provide biological information relevant for understanding mechanisms of jellyfish blooms as well as for the management of coastal zones affected by outbreaks of gelatinous species, The research leading to these results received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under Grant Agreement No. 266445 for the project Vectors of Change in Oceans and Seas Marine Life, Impact on Economic Sectors (VECTORS – http://www.marine-vectors.eu)