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This study presents an ex post evaluation of the accuracy of long-term macroeconomic forecasts presented by economics researchers. The economic growth and inflation forecasts for the next ten years are biased upward. Economic growth forecasts by academic researchers are less upwardly biased than those by professional forecasters in private institutes and that by the government. However, the upward bias of academic researchers specializing in macroeconomics and economic growth is larger than those in the other research fields. These results indicate that long-term economic forecasting involves significant uncertainty, even for economists.

This study, using monthly micro data on firms’ forecasted and realized production quantities, presents new evidence of the uncertainty of production forecasts. Forecast errors are heterogeneous among individual manufacturers. Firms operating in the information and communications technology-related industries, firms producing investment goods, and smaller firms exhibit greater forecast uncertainty. Forecast uncertainty is greater in the contractionary phases of the business cycle. The uncertainty measures that are calculated from the micro data can predict macroeconomic fluctuations. Additionally, the explanatory power of quantitative uncertainty measures is stronger than that of qualitative measures.

This study, using Japanese firm-level data, presents empirical findings on innovation in the service sector and the role of patents and trade secrets. Service firms have fewer product innovations than manufacturing firms do, but the productivity of innovative service firms is very high. Service firms have a low propensity to hold patents, but their holding of trade secrets is comparable to that of manufacturing firms. Product/service innovations have positive relationships with holding patents and trade secrets in both industries, but a positive association of process innovations is found only with holding trade secrets in the manufacturing industry.

Five novel vitamin D analogues ( 2a , 2b , 3a , 3b and 4 ) bearing an aromatic side chain have been designed and synthesized in a convergent manner. The requisite CD-ring synthons ( 10a–c ) were prepared from C22 aldehyde ( 5 ) using four- or five-step procedures. Using turbo-Grignard reagents allowed aromatic side chains with a polar functional moiety to be installed in a single step with excellent yields. A preliminary biological evaluation using bovine thymus vitamin D receptor (VDR) suggested that incorporating a carboxylic acid instead of the C25-hydroxy group had a positive effect on the VDR affinity compared with the corresponding esters.

This study presents evidence on the relationship between employer-provided training and productivity. The important contributions of this study are its comparison of the relative contribution of training to productivity and wages and its distinction between manufacturing and service firms. The results indicate that training significantly contributes to the labor productivity, particularly for firms in the service sector. The elasticities of productivity and wages to training stock are similar in size, meaning that the returns to firms’ training investments are shared by their workers in proportion to the wage share of the value-added.

This study uses data from firm surveys to present new findings on firms’ strategies for price/quality competition and on the relationship between competition strategy and various firm characteristics, including profitability and productivity. First, the results indicate that a relatively large number of firms adopt a quality competition strategy, particularly firms operating in the service industries. Second, firms adopting a quality competition strategy tend to have highly educated employees, invest in intangible assets, such as R&D and advertising, and show a higher probability of innovating. Third, the profitability and productivity of firms adopting a quality competition strategy is higher than that of firms adopting a price competition strategy, although the difference in productivity according to competition strategy should be interpreted with caution.

This study, based on an original survey of Japanese firms, analyzes the productivity of firms that used relief policy measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. The productivity of firms using these relief measures was lower than that of non-user firms prior to the pandemic, suggesting that inefficient firms have been affected seriously. The result cautions against the excessive and prolonged relief policies.

Manufacturing firms in advanced countries are servitizing alongside the deepening of the global value chain. In this respect, “factoryless goods producers” (FGPs) are attracting attention from economics researchers. This study, using firm-level data, presents findings on Japanese FGPs. In this study, FGPs are defined as non-manufacturing firms that outsource manufacturing processes entirely to other firms. Although the large majority of FGPs are classified in ICT or wholesale industries, some FGPs belong to retail or services industries. FGPs are larger and have higher productivity and wages compared with non-FGPs, invest more intensively in intangible assets, including research and development, and have relatively larger headquarters functions.

This study, using data from an original survey covering both public and private firms in Japan, presents evidence on uncertainties over economic policies, their effects on managerial decisions, and firms’ evaluations of the government’s numerical targets related to economic policies. The results indicate that Japanese firms perceive uncertainty over certain economic policies, such as the social security system, tax policy, fiscal expenditure, and international trade policy. Policy uncertainties have substantial effects on managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and hiring of regular employees. Medium- to long-term numerical targets related to the government’s economic policies are perceived to be difficult to achieve.

This study, using data from a representative quarterly business survey in Japan, constructs measures of business uncertainty, presents empirical findings about the time-series properties of business uncertainty measures, and analyzes the relationship between these measures and investments. The results show, first, that business uncertainty heightened at the time of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, but the effect of an increase in the consumption tax rate on business uncertainty was small. Second, manufacturing and small companies tend to face higher business uncertainty than non-manufacturing and large companies. Third, we detect a negative association between business uncertainty and investments.

Japan is known for its low level of female engagement in senior positions. This study analyzes the determinants of the presence and number of female directors among Japanese companies. We find that, first, listed and long-established companies, subsidiaries of parent companies, and unionized companies tend not to have female directors. Second, owner-managed companies are likely to have female directors and CEOs. Third, we find no evidence of tokenism among Japanese companies, whereby female-led companies do not appoint additional females as directors. To increase the number of female executives and directors substantially, creation of new businesses is essential.

Headquarters play an important role in modern companies, but the downsizing of headquarters is often advocated as a way to improve organizational efficiency. Using a panel of Japanese companies for the period 2001–2011, this paper empirically analyzes the determinants of the size of headquarters functions and their relationship with productivity. The cross-sectional dispersion of the size of headquarters functions is very large even within an industry. The complication of businesses leads to smaller headquarters. Headquarters functions contribute positively to a company's TFP. Headquarters functions and ICT network have a complementary role for productivity.

This study presents evidence on the impact of outside directors on firms’ investment behavior and performance with a focus on the recent quasi-natural experiment that rapidly increased the number of outside directors in listed firms. Using a panel of Japanese firms, we compare listed and unlisted firms and conduct instrumental variable estimations to examine causal relationships. The results indicate that the rapid increase in the number of outside directors among listed firms did not promote active investments or risk-taking behavior. In addition, it had no significant impacts on the profitability and productivity of the firms.

Using data on a large number of Japanese firms, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between family ownership of firms and productivity growth and survival. The results show that the annual productivity growth rate of family firms is approximately 2% slower than that of non-family firms. Because family firms attach importance to firm survival as a managerial objective, their probability of survival over a six-year period is 5–10% higher than that of non-family firms. The difference in performance between family and non-family firms is found to be limited to unlisted firms.

The achievement of both sustainable economic growth and reductions in CO2 emissions has been an important policy agenda in recent years. This study, using novel establishment-level microdata from the Energy Consumption Statistics, empirically analyzes the effect of urban density on energy intensity in the service sector. According to the analysis, the efficiency of energy consumption in service establishments is higher for densely populated cities. Quantitatively, after controlling for differences among industries, energy efficiency increases by approximately 12% when the density in a municipality population doubles. This result suggests that, given a structural transformation toward the service economy, deregulation of excessive restrictions hindering urban agglomeration, and investment in infrastructure in city centers would contribute to environmentally friendly economic growth.

Objective To evaluate the risk factors for new-onset overactive bladder (OAB) in older subjects. Methods The present study enrolled 4427 subjects aged ≥65 years who had participated in the Fujiwara-kyo study. The prevalence of OAB at baseline and 1 year later was evaluated using the OAB symptom score questionnaire. The incidence and remission rate of OAB were calculated. We identified the risk factors for OAB by evaluating the difference in characteristics (including sex, age, body mass index, life style, comorbidities, depressive status, metabolic syndrome, and sum of voiding symptoms) between those with and without new-onset OAB. In addition, the independent risk factors were determined by multivariate analysis. Results Of the 4427 subjects, 3685 completely replied to the self-administrated questionnaires at baseline and 1 year later. The incidence and remission rate of OAB was 11.9% and 29.8%, respectively. The male/female ratio, sum of voiding symptoms, alcohol consumption and smoking, hypertension, and depressive status in subjects with new-onset OAB, were significantly greater than those in subjects without new-onset OAB. A multivariate analysis, including sex (odds ratio 2.0, P < .0001), sum of voiding symptoms (odds ratio 1.1, P < .0001), and depressive status (odds ratio 1.8, P < .0001) were independent factors for new-onset OAB in older subjects. Conclusion The results of the present study have demonstrated that male sex, the sum of voiding symptoms, and depression were independent factors for new-onset OAB. It is necessary to determine whether the treatment of patients with voiding symptoms or depression controls for new-onset OAB.

Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) are different types of dementia. However, their clinical symptoms partially overlap and differential diagnosis is occasionally difficult. There is need for additional diagnostic criteria to reliably differentiate between these two conditions. Meanwhile, several imaging studies have showed inconsistent results between DLB and AD. The aim of this study was to use a tractography-based analysis to elucidate white matter alterations in subjects with DLB compared to those with AD and to controls. An understanding of the white matter connectivity differences between AD, DLB and controls will be helpful for differential diagnosis and an understanding of the pathophysiology. Twenty-six subjects with DLB, 26 with AD and 26 controls underwent magnetic resonance diffusion tensor imaging and neuropsychological assessment. Diffusion tensors were computed and fiber-tract maps were created using "dTV II" software. We measured mean fractional anisotropy (FA) values along the uncinate fasciculus (UNC), the inferior occipitofrontal fasciculus (IOFF) and the inferior longitudinal fasciculus (ILF). Both subjects with DLB and AD had lower FA values for the bilateral UNC than controls. Subjects with DLB exhibited significantly lower FA values on both sides of the IOFF and the left side of the ILF than those of controls. Although there were no significant differences between subjects with DLB and AD for any measurements, those with DLB exhibited lower FA values especially in visual-related white matter. These different changes in white matter tracts among groups could be helpful for differential diagnosis and an understanding of the pathophysiology.

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between labor union and firm performance in areas such as productivity and profitability by using data on more than 4000 Japanese firms, ranging from listed large firms to unlisted SMEs, in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sector. The presence of labor unions has statistically and economically significant positive effects on firm productivity. Unions' effects on wages are also positive, their magnitude being slightly larger than those on productivity. The decrease in the number of employees is greater at unionized firms than at non-unionized firms. The difference in employment growth is mainly attributable to the change in the number of part-time workers. In order to enhance productivity, close cooperation between management and unions is essential.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the relationship between demand fluctuations and productivity of service industries. Specifically, by using unique establishment-level data on service industries in Japan, this paper estimates production functions for six narrowly defined personal-service industries. In almost all the examined service industries, statistically and economically significant negative effects of demand variation on establishment-level productivity are found. This result suggests dispersing holidays may have positive effects on the productivity of service industries.

This paper, using Japanese firm-level data, presents findings about innovative activities in the service sector and the role of patents and trade secrets on innovation. According to the analysis, first, service firms have fewer product innovations than do manufacturing firms, but the productivity of innovative service firms is very high. Second, service firms have a low propensity for holding patents, but their holding of trade secrets is comparable to that of the manufacturing firms. Third, patents and trade secrets have positive relationships with product innovations, and the effects are quantitatively similar in magnitude, in both the manufacturing and the service sectors. On the other hand, a positive relationship between trade secrets and process innovations is found only in the manufacturing sector. These results suggest a pivotal role of the law protecting trade secrets on innovation and productivity growth in the service sector.

A novel full-length human cDNA homologous to Glia Maturation Factor-beta (GMF-beta) gene was isolated. Sequence analysis of the entire cDNA revealed an open reading frame of 426 nucleotides with a deduced protein sequence of 142 amino acid residues. The deduced amino acid sequences of its putative product is highly homologous to human GMF-beta (82% identity) and named for GMF-gamma. Northern blot analysis indicated that a message of 0.9 kb long, but not 4.1 kb of GMF-beta, is predominantly expressed in human lung, heart, and placenta.

Background: Angiopoietin-1 (Ang1) is a critical angiogenic factor for vascular maturation and enhances vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-induced angiogenesis in a complementary manner. Previously, we reported that adenoviral vector mediated Ang1 gene therapy clearly promoted myocardial angiogenesis and reduced infarct size in a rat acute myocardial infarction (AMI) model. However, the alternative gene delivery method must explore for clinical application of myocardial Ang1 gene therapy, because of toxicity and inflammatory nature of adenoviral vector. Naked plasmid injection is the safest and convenient method for cardiovascular gene therapy and we have reported that naked CA (CMV enhancer/Chicken β-actin promoter)-promoter can bring remarkable myocardial transgene expression following naked CA-plasmid injection. Therefore, we attempted naked Ang1 plasmid gene therapy for rat AMI model and evaluated myocardial angiogenesis and effects for the remodeling following AMI.

Background: Sendai virus (SeV), a rodent respiratory virus considered non-pathogenic for humans, is a negative-strand RNA virus, classified as a type I parainfluenza virus belonging to the family Paramyxoviridae. Recently, efficient gene transduction into various primary cultured cells and tissues by a recombinant Sendai virus vector (SeVV) has been reported. However, the feasibility of using SeVV in the context of myocardial gene therapy was not evaluated. In the present study, we evaluated SeVV-mediated gene-transfer into cardiomyocytes in vitro and in vivo

Introduction: We have reported that NKH477, a water-soluble forskolin derivative, prolongs allograft survival in rat orthotopic lung transplantation. For the first time, we investigated the in vivo mechanisms of action of NKH477. Methods: Left lungs of Lewis recipients were orthotopically replaced by those from Brown-Norway (BN) donors on day 0. The recipient rats were untreated or treated daily with NKH477 (orally, 3 mg/kg, day 0-10). Untreated (n59) or NKH-treated (n56) allografts were monitored daily by chest roentogenographs to determine survival time with Prop’s method. The grafts and spleens were harvested on day 3 or 5 from untreated or NKHtreated recipients (n55 in each group). Mesenteric lymph nodes (MLNs) were harvested on day 5 from untreated or NKH-treated recipients (n52 in each group). The grafts were homogenized to determine expression of IFN-g, IL-2, IL-4 and IL-10 by ELISA. Expression of the cytokines was evaluated in the spleens with immunohistochemical staining. MLN cells were cultured in vitro for 72 hours with or without x-irradiated BN splenocytes. The cell proliferation was determined by [3H]thymidine incorporation. Results: NKH477 monotherapy extended the survival time of allografts from 4 days to 9.5 days (p,0.01). IFN-g and IL-10 expression was markedly up-regulated at day 3 and at day 5 in the untreated allografts. The NKH477 therapy potently inhibited the upregulation of both cytokines in the allografts at day 3 (p,0.05). Although expression of IL-2 as well as IL-10 in the spleens of untreated recipients increased after the transplantation, expression of both cytokines at day 5 was clearly less in the spleens of NKH477-treasted recipients (p,0.05). When the MLN cells were cultured alone or in the presence of x-irradiated BN splenocytes, the cell proliferation was inhibited in NKH-treated recipients as compared to untreated recipients. Conclusion: These results suggest that NKH477 exerts an antiproliferative effect in vivo with an altered cytokine profile to prolong allograft survival in rat orthotopic lung transplantation.