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The diffusion of renewable energy in the power system implies high supply variability. Lacking economically viable storage options, renewable energy integration is possible thanks to the presence of modern mid-merit fossil-based technologies, which act as back-up capacity. This paper discusses the role of modern fossil-based power generation technologies in supporting renewable energy investments. We study the deployment of these two technologies conditional on all other drivers in 26 OECD countries between 1990 and 2013. We show that moving from the first to the third quartile of the distribution of modern fossil technologies is associated with an increase in yearly renewable energy investment of between 6 and 14 kW per thousand people, on average and ceteris paribus. This is a sizeable effect, considering that average yearly renewable capacity addition in our sample are around 12 kW per thousand people. These findings are robust to different econometric specifications, various definitions of modern fossil technologies and are stronger for wind, which is more intermittent and for which the mismatch between supply and demand is more marked. Our analysis points to the substantial indirect costs of renewable energy integration and highlights the complementarity of investments in different generation technologies for a successful decarbonization process.

This paper analyzes the dynamic behavior of day-ahead spot prices in the German electricity spot market due to positive structural shocks in wind and solar power. It uses a dynamic structural vector autoregressive model to estimate the related structural impulse response functions. The estimates suggest that wind power shocks have a more prolonged negative effect on spot prices than solar power shocks. Significant autocorrelations of wind power for larger lags indicate these results. The total negative merit order effect of a solar power shock is larger when using a reasonable model specification. One reason might be that solar power shocks coincide with demand peaks. However, results regarding the relation of the effects of wind and solar should be dealt with carefully because these results do not hold for all specifications. Past static estimates show differences in the total average negative merit order effects. These estimates might be overstated if wind and solar power dynamics are transferred to the merit order effects.

Governments and network utilities are grappling with how to manage increasing costs of electricity supply, the prospect of distributed generation while still meeting social objectives of access and affordability in remote areas. Due to geographical isolation and dispersed populations, remote Australian communities are generally electrified by distributed networks using diesel generation. This is expensive, environmentally damaging and fails to exploit vast renewable resources available. These communities are often regarded as “low hanging fruit” from a renewable energy deployment perspective. This paper examines why that fruit has not been readily picked in Australia in the context of a case study of three remote West Australian communities. In Western Australia, the local electricity distribution network service provider (DNSP) responsible for regional networks, developed a scheme (the Scheme) to incentivise renewable energy deployment in remote communities. This scheme aims to encourage communities to install renewable energy from the “bottom up” by providing a feed-in tariff capped at $0.50/kW h, to reduce the supply cost and environmental damage from diesel generation. However, to date there has been limited deployment of renewable energy in remote communities. The scheme and viability of renewable energy is assessed for three indigenous communities located in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. These communities are connected to isolated, diesel powered networks. Viability is assessed from the DNSP and community perspectives and incorporates quantitative and qualitative financial, social / human and institutional factors. Renewable energy deployment is found to benefit the DNSP and can also benefit communities subject to their cost of capital and to the imposition of connection charges. However a range of barriers are currently frustrating deployment and a dynamic and adaptive approach that recognises local challenges and provides the communities with a pathway to installation is needed.

The state of Bihar in India has approximately 75 million people with no access to electricity. The government of India has pursued a policy of rural electrification through the provision of centralised coal-fired power which has been unable to resolve the low levels of electrification. Coal supply woes in India have led Indian companies to pursue new coal mines in Australia’s Galilee Basin. The costs of these mining ventures will be high due to the mining infrastructure required and long transport distances to rural India. A high level analysis of mining, transport and power station investment to meet rural demand in Bihar shows that the absolute investment requirement using coal, especially coal sourced from Australia, as an expensive option. Pursuing electrification through village level, renewable energy micro-systems requires lower financing and provides more flexibility. Pollution costs associated with coal-fired generation, employment benefits associated with many village implementations and a rural load unsupported by industry load, show the benefit associated with decentralised, renewable energy electrification.

This paper reports on a cost-effectiveness analysis of four types of water heating systems operating in a situation where there is an unreliable water supply. These systems are electric water heating, a solar water heating system (SWHS) with electricity back-up, the SWHS with an LPG water heater, and an LPG water heater alone. It is found that in the conditions of North Cyprus, an SWHS with an LPG heater back-up is the most cost-effective, most convenient and most environmentally friendly system. The last two systems all have a cost per m 3 of hot water that is approximately 50% of the cost of heating water by electricity. This study finds that in situations where there is a winter or cloudy season, the choice of the source of energy for SWHS׳s back-up during this period is critical for its overall cost-effectiveness. When a pressurized supply of water is available, the cost of heating water is reduced by 20% for the SWHS with LPG back-up and for the heating of water by the LPG heater alone.

"In light of Germany´s transition approaches towards a sustainable energy system this paper examines differences of employment structure and wage differentials between renewable energy establishments and their sector peers. To do so, we have developed a novel data set by linking company-level information from the German Renewable Energy Federation with establishment-level data of the IAB Establishment History Panel. According to our descriptive evidence, there are significant differences in wages and in several other characteristics. Looking at the top-four renewable energy sectors, our estimates show that human capital and other establishment- level characteristics mostly explain the wage differential among manufacturers and energy providers. However, we find a persistent 'renewable energy wage premium' of more than ten percent in the construction installation activities and the architectural and engineering services. We interpret this premium as a positive indirect effect of the promotion of renewable energies for the benefit of employees in renewable energy establishments within these two sectors." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information deutsche Kurzfassung

While wind energy production is relatively free from environmental externalities such as air pollution, it is frequently considered to negatively impact landscapes' visual aesthetic values, thereby inducing negative effects on tourism demand. Existing evidence for Germany indeed points towards a negative relationship between tourism demand and wind turbine construction. However, the existing studies primarily rely on interview data and simple bivariate statistics. In contrast, we make use of secondary statistics on tourism and wind turbine locations at the level of German municipalities. Using spatial panel regression techniques, we confirm a negative relation between wind turbines around municipalities and tourism demand for municipalities not located near the coast. In the latter regions, the relation between wind turbines and tourism demand is more complex.

To meet the increasing global demand for renewable energy, such as wind energy, an increasing number of wind parks are being constructed worldwide. Finding a suitable location requires a detailed and often costly analysis of local wind conditions. Plain average wind speed maps cannot provide a precise forecast of wind power because of the non-linear relationship between wind speed and production. We suggest a new approach to assess the local wind energy potential. First, meteorological reanalysis data are applied to obtain long-term low-scale wind speed data at specific turbine locations and hub heights. Second, the relation between wind data and energy production is determined via a five parameter logistic function using actual high-frequency energy production data. The resulting wind energy index allows for a turbine-specific estimation of the expected wind power at an unobserved location. A map of the wind power potential for Germany exemplifies our approach.

This article examines the efficiency of wind energy production. Using non-convex efficiency analysis, we quantify production losses for 19 wind turbines in four wind parks across Germany. In a second stage regression, we adapt the linear regression results of Kneip, Simar, and Wilson (2015) to explain electricity losses by means of a bias-corrected truncated regression analysis. The results show that electricity losses amount to 27% of the maximal producible electricity. Most of these losses are from changing wind conditions, while 6% are from turbine errors.

We use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) b ounds testing approach for cointegration with structural breaks and the ve ctor error correction model (VECM) Granger causality approach in order to investigate relationships between per capita CO 2 emissions, GDP, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and international trade (exports or imports) for Tunisia during the period 1980-2009. We show the existence of a short-run unidirectional causality running from tra de, GDP, CO 2 emission and non-renewable energy to renewable energy. Our long-run estimates show that non-renewable energy and trade have a positive impact on CO 2 emissions, whereas renewable energy impacts weakly and negatively CO 2 emission when using the model with exports and this impact is statistically insignificant when using the model wi th imports. The inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is not supported graphically and analytically in the long-run. This means that Tunisia has not ye t reached the required level of per capita GDP to get an inverted U-shaped EKC. Our main policy recommendations for Tunisia are the following: (i) to radically reform the subsidies system granted b y the Tunisian government for fossil fuels consumption; (ii) to encourage the use of renewable energy and ener gy efficiency by reinforcing actual projects and regulatory frame work; (iii) to locate ports near exporting industrial zones (or vice versa) to reduce emission of pollution caused by the transport of merchandise; (iv) to elaborate a strategy for maximizing its benefit from renewable energy technology transfer occurring when importing capita l goods; (v) to encourage the creation of renewable energy projects for export to the EU with a proportion of production for national consumption.

In a power system featuring a large share of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) and inflexible thermal generators, efficiency gains on generation costs could be achieved by curtailing the production of RES. However, as RES feature very low variable production costs, over-curtailment can be costly. In this article, we use a stylised analytical model to assess this trade-off. We show that while curtailing RES when their variability is high and the system flexibility is low can reduce generation costs, the different stakeholders (consumers, dispatchable generators, RES) will not necessarily benefit from such measures. As a consequence, generators will opt for a sub-optimal level of curtailment, and this level of curtailment should rather be set by the TSO. Either incentive to provide the TSO with accurate forecasts of RES availability, or alternatively centralised forecasting by the TSO, should then be put into place to solve the resulting problem of asymmetry of information.

This paper (CPB/PBL) uses the computable general equilibrium model WorldScan to analyse interactions between EU’s air pollution and climate change policies. Covering the entire world and seven EU countries, WorldScan simulates economic growth in a neo-classical recursive dynamic framework, including emissions and abatement of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , N2O and CH4) and air pollutants (SO2, NOx, NH3 and PM2.5). Abatement includes the possibility of using end-of-pipe control options that remove pollutants without affecting the emissionproducing activity itself. This paper analyses several variants of EU’s air pollution policies for the year 2020. Air pollution policy will depend on end-of-pipe controls for not more than 50%, thus also at least 50% of the required emission reduction will come from changes in the use of energy through efficiency improvements, fuel switching and other structural changes in the economy. Greenhouse gas emissions thereby decrease, which renders climate change policies less costly. Our results show that carbon prices will fall, but not more than 33%, although they could drop to zero when the EU agrees on a more stringent air pollution policy.

Economic thought on climate policy as an instance of environmental regulation is strongly influenced by the principle of a uniform carbon price. Economists acknowledge that this principle breaks down in a “second-best” world with other distortions, such as taxes and market power in domestic and international markets. However, systematic analysis of this point in the economic climate policy literature is scarce. In the present paper, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) set-up is chosen in order to examine what pattern of differentiated carbon prices emerges as optimal in a second-best world. The CGE model WorldScan, which is considered to be representative of the class of models routinely used for numerical climate policy analysis, produces three main results: First, the optimal pattern of carbon prices is highly differentiated, ranging from almost prohibitive taxes to high subsidies (with a range of more than 1700 euros per ton of CO 2 ). Second, the welfare gain from switching from a uniform price to optimally differentiated prices is enormous, equivalent to a 27% emission reduction for free. Third, the most important drivers of carbon price differentiation are market power in export markets as well as taxes on consumption, intermediate inputs and domestic output. This shows that carbon price differentiation cannot be dismissed as a policy option lightly. However, before translating these findings into concrete policy advice, the relevant features of modelling pre-existing distortions in CGE models need close revision.

Electricity supply is frequently cited as a significant hot spot in life cycle assessment (LCA) results. Despite its importance, however, LCA research continues to overuse simplified methodologies regarding electricity supply modeling. This work aims to demonstrate the usefulness of electricity trade analysis (proposed model) for integrating the short-term dynamics of electricity supply and refining LCA results. Distributed generation using renewable energy is applied as a case study to demonstrate how electricity trade analysis provides more refined estimates when environmental impact abatements are assessed compared with the conventional (simplified) approaches in LCA. Grid-connected photovoltaic panel (3 kWp mono- and poly-crystalline) and micro-wind turbine (1, 10 and 30 kW) environmental impact abatements are investigated by determining the displaced marginal electricity production on an hourly basis. The results indicate that environmental impact abatements calculated using the developed short-term time horizon approach can be significantly different (up to 200% difference) from those obtained using a simplified approach. Recommendations are provided to LCA practitioners to address this issue of differing results.

This study produces an attempt to estimate the cost of future global energy supplies. The approach chosen to address this concern relies on a comparative static exercise of estimating the cost of three energy scenarios representing different energy futures. The first scenario, the business as usual scenario, predicts the future energy-mix based on the energy plans held by major countries. The second scenario is the renewable energy scenario, where as much of the primary energy supply as possible is replaced by renewable energy by 2050. The cost of the renewable energy generating technologies and their theoretical potential are taken into account in order to create a plausible scenario. The third scenario, the nuclear case, is based on the use of nuclear and renewable energy to replace fossil-fuels by 2050. Endogenous learning rates for each technology are modeled using an innovative approach where learning rates are diminishing overtime. It results from the analysis that going fully renewable would cost between −0.4 and 1.5% of the global cumulated GDP over the period 2009–2050 compared to a business as usual strategy. An extensive use of nuclear power can greatly reduce this gap in costs.

R&D is an uncertain activity with highly skewed outcomes. Nonetheless, most recent empirical studies and modeling estimates of the potential of technological change focus on the average returns to research and development (R&D) for a composite technology and contain little or no information about the distribution of returns to R&D – which could be important for capturing the range of costs associated with climate change mitigation policies – by individual technologies. Through an empirical study of patent citation data, this paper adds to the literature on the outcomes of energy R&D by focusing on the behavior of the most successful innovations for six energy technologies, allowing us to determine whether uncertainty or differences in technologies matter most for success. We highlight two key results. First, we compare the results from an aggregate analysis of six energy technologies to technology-by-technology results. Our results show that existing work that assumes diminishing returns but assumes one generic technology is too simplistic and misses important differences between more successful and less successful technologies. Second, we use quantile regression techniques to learn more about patents that have a high positive error term in our regressions – that is, patents that receive many more citations than predicted based on observable characteristics. We find that differences across technologies, rather than differences across quantiles within technologies, are more important. The value of successful technologies persists longer than those of less successful technologies, providing evidence that success is the culmination of several advances building upon one another, rather than resulting from one single breakthrough. Diminishing returns to research activities appear most problematic during rapid increases of research investment, such as experienced by solar energy in the 1970s., National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant 0825915)

For the first time, we apply the wavelet coherence methodology on biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) and a wide range of related commodities (gasoline, diesel, crude oil, corn, wheat, soybeans, sugarcane and rapeseed oil). This way, we are able to investigate dynamics of correlations in time and across scales (frequencies) with a model-free approach. We show that correlations indeed vary in time and across frequencies. We find two highly correlated pairs which are strongly connected at low frequencies - ethanol with corn and biodiesel with German diesel - during almost the whole analyzed period (2003-2011). Structure of correlations remarkably changes during the food crisis - higher frequencies become important for both mentioned pairs. This implies that during stable periods, ethanol is correlated with corn and biodiesel is correlated with German diesel mainly at low frequencies so that they follow a common long-term trend. However, in the crisis periods, ethanol (biodiesel) is lead by corn (German diesel) even at high frequencies (low scales), which implies that the biofuels prices react more rapidly to the changes in their producing factors., 16 pages, 5 figures

We develop a model of competition in the solar panel industry. Solar firms manufacture panels that are differentiated both vertically and horizontally, and compete by setting quantities. The equilibrium of the model is consistent with a set of stylized facts that we document, including variation in prices, markups and market shares across firms. We calibrate the model using a new dataset data on prices, costs and shipments of leading solar companies, as well as solar sales in four leading markets. The calibrated model is applied to evaluate the impact of a decline in the price of polysilicon, a key raw material used in the manufacture of solar panels, on the equilibrium price of solar panels.

Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) recently completed a major study investigating the value of distributed energy (DE; collectively demand management, energy efficiency and distributed generation) technologies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from Australia’s energy sector (CSIRO, 2009). This comprehensive report covered potential economic, environmental, technical, social, policy and regulatory impacts that could result from the wide scale adoption of these technologies. In this paper we highlight the economic findings from the study. Partial Equilibrium modeling of the stationary and transport sectors found that Australia could achieve a present value welfare gain of around $130 billion when operating under a 450 ppm carbon reduction trajectory through to 2050. Modeling also suggests that reduced volatility in the spot market could decrease average prices by up to 12% in 2030 and 65% in 2050 by using local resources to better cater for an evolving supply-demand imbalance. Further modeling suggests that even a small amount of distributed generation located within a distribution network has the potential to significantly alter electricity prices by changing the merit order of dispatch in an electricity spot market. Changes to the dispatch relative to a base case can have both positive and negative effects on network losses.

As building-integrated photovoltaic (PV) solutions can meet around one-third of electricity demand in Germany and China, both countries are interested in exploring this potential. PV technologies have demonstrated significant price reductions, but large-scale global application of PV requires further technology improvements and cost reductions along the value chain. We analyze policies in Germany and China, including deployment support, investment support for manufacturing plants and R&D support measures, and we survey the industrial actors they can encourage to pursue innovation. While deployment support has been successful, investment support for manufacturing in these nations has not been sufficiently tied to innovation incentives, and R&D support has been comparatively weak. The paper concludes with a discussion of the opportunities for global policy coordination.

Understanding fossil fuel supply behaviour is crucial for interpreting carbon leakage and assessing the potential effectiveness of border measures in climate policy. In most computable general equilibrium models, this fossil fuel supply is derived from a constant elasticity of substitution production function, in which a natural resource is treated as a fixed factor. We show that this leads to endogenously decreasing supply elasticities and sharply increasing marginal leakage rates for large coalitions that have ambitious emissions targets, particularly when fuel exporters participate in the coalition. We propose an alternative production function that has a constant elasticity of fuel supply, which results in more stable leakage rates and a different share of trade-related leakage. The role of this model variation for the assessment of border measures in climate policy turns out to be limited. In those cases where the model versions differ most (i.e. large coalition, ambitious targets), border measures have a small effect anyway.

This paper examines the roles of futures prices of crude oil, gasoline, ethanol, corn, soybeans and sugar in the energy-grain nexus. It also investigates the own- and cross-market impacts for the lagged grain trading volume and the open interest in the energy and grain markets. According to the results, the conventional view, for which the impacts are from oil to gasoline to ethanol to grains in the energy-grain nexus, does not hold well in the long run because the oil price is influenced by gasoline, soybeans and oil. Moreover, gasoline is preceded by only the oil price, and ethanol is not foreshadowed by any of the prices. However, in the short run, a two-way feedback in both directions exists in all markets. The grain trading volume effect across oil and gasoline is more pronounced in the short-run than in the long-run, satisfying both the overconfidence/disposition and the new information hypotheses across markets. The results for the ethanol open interest show that money flows out of this market in both the short- and long-run, but no results suggest across market inflows or outflows to the other grain markets.

This paper estimates household preferences for ethanol (E85) as a gasoline (E10) substitute. I develop a theoretical model linking the shape of the ethanol demand curve to the underlying distribution among households of willingness to pay for ethanol. I estimate the model using instrumental variables techniques and data from many retail fueling stations. I find that a $0.10-per-gallon increase in ethanol's price relative to gasoline leads to a 12–16% decrease in the quantity of ethanol demanded. My findings imply that preferences for ethanol are heterogeneous and that a substantial fraction of households are willing to pay a premium for the fuel. This reduces substantially the simulated efficiency cost of an ethanol content standard, since some households choose ethanol without large subsidies, mitigating deadweight losses.

This study develops and examines physical energy intensity indicators in five industrial sub-sectors—iron and steel, aluminum, textiles, paper, and cement—and investigates mitigation options for energy related CO 2 emissions (during 1991–2005). Decomposition analysis has been employed to separate the structural effect (share of different products in the sector) from pure intensity effect (efficiency increase through technical improvement) for each industry. The results show that the combined effect (considering both structural and intensity effects together) on both iron and steel and paper and pulp industries is negative while it is positive for aluminum and textiles. The intensity effect for all the industries, barring textiles, is negative showing improvement in energy efficiency; iron and steel in particular, has seen a decrease of 134 PJ in energy consumption owing to improvements in efficiency. However, energy intensity in textiles has risen by 47 PJ due to increased mechanization. Structural effect is positive in aluminum and iron and steel industries indicating a movement towards higher energy-intensive products. In the case of aluminum, positive structural effect dominates over negative intensive effect whereas negative intensive effect dominates iron and steel industry. The paper helps in designing policies for improving productivity and reduce energy consumption in India's manufacturing sector.

In the past years biofuels have received increased attention since they were believed to contribute to rural development, energy security and to fight global warming. It became clear, though, that bioenergy cannot be evaluated independently of the rest of the economy and that national and international feedback effects are important. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely employed in order to study the effects of international climate policies. The main characteristic of these models is their encompassing scope: Global models cover the whole world economy disaggregated into regions and countries as well as diverse sectors of economic activity. Such a modelling framework unveils direct and indirect feedback effects of certain policies or shocks across sectors and countries. CGE models are thus well suited for the study of bioenergy/biofuel policies. One can currently find various approaches in the literature of incorporating bioenergy into a CGE framework. This paper gives an overview of existing approaches, critically assesses their respective power and discusses the advantages of CGE models compared to partial equilibrium models. Grouping different approaches into categories and highlighting their advantages and disadvantages is important for giving a structure to this rather recent and rapidly growing research area and to provide a guidepost for future work.

To point out the direction and focus of future international climate negotiations, this paper discusses how far developing country commitments can go in an immediate post-2012 climate regime. The paper argues that developing country commitments are most unlikely to go beyond the defined polices and measures in this timeframe. On this basis, the paper suggests that, rather than attempting the unrealistic goal, international climate negotiations may instead need to initially frame the post-2012 developing country participation in terms of certain policies and policies that I envisioned a decade ago. This conclusion does not change, as Barack Obama becomes the U.S. President and the Democrats have regained control over both U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. However, it should be emphasized that his stance on climate issues and how ambitious U.S. commitments would be under his administration are going to be critical for developing countries to take bold steps themselves and to even agree to reflect those national commitments in a global deal.

Asia has truly experienced spectacular economic growth over the past 15 years. However, this economic progress has come at a high cost. It has led to unprecedented environmental consequences. The ecological footprint shows that, despite the fact that one-fifth of the population in Asia still lives on less than US$ 1 per day (PPP-adjusted), the region is already living beyond its ecological carrying capacity. The region is facing a dilemma. On the one hand, continued economic growth is needed to alleviate the poverty of the two-thirds of the world’s poor living in this region. On the other hand, that economic growth will further place tremendous strains on the natural environment. In order to extricate itself from this difficult position, the region needs to shift the conventional pattern of “develop first and then treat the pollution” to a different trajectory of sustainable development. To that end, this paper examines a variety of policy responses at national, regional and international levels to deal with growing concerns about the environmental challenges in Asia in order to help to put the region on a more sustainable development path. In the context of national responses, special attention is paid to the following issues: coordination between the central and local governments, market-based environmental instruments and industrial policies, tougher emissions standards for mobile and stationary sources and for fuel quality, policies to promote energy efficiency and the use of clean energy and biofuels, the integration of environmental policies with economic and sectoral policies, and engagement of the private sector through e.g., ecolabelling, green government procurement, corporate ratings and disclosure programs, and drawing the support of financial institutions to promote improved corporate environmental performance. It is concluded that having the right policy mix, coupled with strengthened cooperation at national, local and regional levels, will ensure continuing economic growth in the region without compromising its limited ecological carrying capacity and environmental quality.

International audience; In the midwestern United States, ethanol produced from corn is mixed with gasoline to meet clean air standards. Allocating land to produce clean fuel means taking away land from farming. We examine a model in which a scarce fossil fuel (e.g., oil) causes pollution but may be substituted by a clean fuel produced from land. Methodologically, we extend the Hotelling model to consider a substitute produced in the agricultural sector. We discover a range of prices within which the land-based fuel may substitute for the fossil fuel. When land is abundant, the supply of the clean fuel may exhibit multiple discontinuities. Environmental regulation may cause food production and farm prices to remain constant for a period of time.

This paper presents a method for evaluating investments in decentralized renewable power generation under price un certainty. The analysis is applicable for a client with an electricity load and a renewable resource that can be utilized for power generation. The investor has a deferrable opportunity to invest in one local power generating unit, with the objective to maximize the profits from the opportunity. Renewable electricity generation can serve local load when generation and load coincide in time, and surplus power can be exported to the grid. The problem is to find the price intervals and the capacity of the generator at which to invest. Results from a case with wind power generation for an office building suggests it is optimal to wait for higher prices than the net present value break-even price under price uncertainty, and that capacity choice can depend on the current market price and the price volatility. With low price volatility there can be more than one investment price interval for different units with intermediate waiting regions between them. High price volatility increases the value of the investment opportunity, and therefore makes it more attractive to postpone investment until larger units are profitable.

In the past decade, innovations in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have fueled a boom in the production of natural gas (as well as oil) from geological formations – primarily deep shales – in which hydrocarbon production was previously unprofitable. Impacts on U.S. fossil fuel production and the U.S. economy more broadly have been transformative, even in the first decade. The boom has been accompanied by concerns about negative externalities, including impacts to air, water, and quality of life in producing regions. We describe the economic benefits of the shale gas boom, including direct market impacts and positive externalities, providing back-of-the-envelope estimates of their magnitude. The paper also summarizes the current science and economics literatures on negative externalities. We conclude that the likely scope of economic benefits is extraordinarily large, and that continued research on the magnitude of negative externalities is necessary to inform risk-mitigating policies.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed regulations to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2)from existing fossil electricity generators in its proposed Clean Power Plan rule under section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act. The proposal is based on the best system of emissions reductions (BSER) and calls for states to develop plans to achieve reductions that are demonstrated to be equivalent to those attained by the application of BSER to each state. Policy options from which states may choose are not restricted - the BSER and state plans are distinct from one another. This primer describes the different types of incentive-based comprehensive policies that states could adopt and how policy design features can address particular objectives including overall cost-effectiveness, distributional consequences for electricity consumers and producers, administrative costs, and emissions of other pollutants. We also elucidate some trade-offs that state policymakers will face as they develop their plans for Clean Power Plan compliance.

Renewable energy consumption has been identified as a potential solution to the intermittent power supply in Ghana. Recently, a Renewable Energy Act has been passed which has a target of 10% of renewable energy component in Ghana’s energy mix by 2020. Whilst effort is been made to enhance supply through feed in tariffs, education and tax reduction on renewable energy related equipment, there is the need to understand the drivers of renewable energy demand. In this study, the general unrestricted model through Autometrics is used to estimate the determinants of renewable energy demand in Ghana. The results indicate that both economic factors and non-economic affect the demand for renewable energy. In addition, the underlying energy demand trend exhibits energy using behaviour. The study recommends that economic factors such as consumer subsidies should be considered when promoting renewable energy demand.

This paper aims at characterizing the conditions of wind power deployment in order to infer a carbon price level that would provide wind power with comparable advantage over fossil fuel technologies as effective wind support policies. The analysis is conducted on Danish data from 2000 to 2010, i.e. after market liberalization took place in 2000. Probit technique is used to analyze the connection of new turbines to the grid each month and tobit analysis is employed on the additional capacity installed monthly. I find that the level and type of the support policy are the dominant drivers of deployment. Electricity price impact is not visible. The investment cost impact is not significant either, but the effect of the interest rate, although not visible in the probit analysis, is significant in the tobit analysis. The number of turbines already installed, that is taken as a proxy for the sites availability, does not have any significant effect either. A feed-in tariff significantly brings more wind power in than a premium policy. The fact that the support policy is a feed-in tariff rather than a premium increases the additional capacity installed monthly by up to several tens MW. The additional capacity installed monthly increases by up to thousand kW for each additional e/MWh of support. If the policy is a premium, I find that 24 e/MWh of support in addition to electricity price is needed to observe the connection of new turbines to the grid with a 0.5 probability. I convert this support level into a carbon price of 28 e/ton if wind power competes with coal, and 50 e/t if it competes with gas.

We develop a dispatch and investment model to study the role of power storage and other flexibility options in a greenfield setting with high shares of renewables. The model captures multiple system values of power storage related to arbitrage, dispatchable capacity, and reserves. In a baseline scenario, we find that power storage requirements remain moderate up to a renewable share of around 80%, as other options on both the supply side and demand side also offer flexibility at low cost. Yet storage plays an important role in the provision of reserves. If the renewable share increases to 100%, the required capacities of power storage and other technologies increase strongly. As long-run parameter assumptions are highly uncertain, we carry out a range of sensitivity analyses, for example, with respect to the costs and availabilities of storage and renewables. A common finding of these sensitivities is that – under very high renewable shares – the storage requirement strongly depends on the costs and availability of other flexibility options, particularly on biomass availability. We conclude that power storage becomes an increasingly important element of a transition towards a fully renewable-based power system. Power storage gains further relevance if other potential sources of flexibility are less developed. Supporting the development of power storage should thus be considered a useful component of policies designed to safeguard the transition towards renewables.

We analyze the interactions between different renewable support schemes and the benefits of real-time pricing (RTP) using a stylized economic model with a detailed demand-side representation calibrated to the German market. We find that there are considerable differences between a market premium on energy and capacity regarding wholesale prices, support levies and market values, which are all related to induced negative wholesale prices in case of the former. This comes along with overall higher welfare as it allows RTP consumers to increase their consumption in periods of high renewable availability. Moreover, increasing RTP shares also incurs higher welfare gains in case of a premium on energy, with the deployment-relevant group of consumers that switch from a flat-rate tariff to RTP benefiting most. Our analysis thus puts the widespread notion that higher market values are instrumental for the deployment of high shares of RES into perspective.

Electricity from renewable sources avoids the disadvantages of conventional power generation (air pollution, greenhouse gases, nuclear risk) but often meets with local resistance due to visual, acoustic, and odor nuisance. We use representative panel data on the subjective well-being of 36,475 individuals in Germany, 1994 - 2012, for identifying and valuing the local externalities from wind, solar and biomass plants. While the well-being effects of windturbines refer mainly to initial installations and tend to dissipate over time, the effects of solar and biomass plants build up gradually as their number and capacity rises. In a spatial perspective, power generation from biomass creates negative spillovers to adjacent localities that are absent in the case of wind power.

Germany changed renewable remuneration for wind power from a fixed Feed-In Tariff (FIT) to a floating Market Premium Scheme (MPS) in 2012. One aim of this adjustment was to better align the supply of generated wind electricity with the demand for it, e.g. through more system-friendly wind turbine technology choices. In energy systems with a high share of variable renewable energies, such turbines produce a higher share of their production at lower wind speeds and thus can reduce the need for alternative flexibility options like back-up capacity, storage, grid extensions and demand side measures. However, based on a wind power investment model, I show that the MPS fails to convey strong enough incentives to project developers to significantly alter their investment decisions as long as these base their investments on current electricity market price profiles and are limited by their access to risk-averse project finance. One reform proposal to support the installation of system-friendly turbines is a change in the production volume-based benchmark approach which plays an integral part in both the fixed FIT and the MPS. The investment model indicates that such a revised policy can incentivize the deployment of moderately more system-friendly wind power technologies at some locations. An alternative option is to shift to a production value-based benchmark approach. It directly reflects the future additional market value of system-friendly turbines in today's remuneration structure. Thus, this approach sets incentives also for investors without perfect foresight - or with financing constraints - to deploy more system-friendly turbines that meet the requirements of power systems with increasing shares of wind power.

We explore the relationship between low-carbon objectives and the strategic security of electricity in the context of the UK electricity system. We consider diversity of fuel source mix to represent one dimension of security—robustness against interruptions of any one source—and apply two different diversity indices to the range of electricity system scenarios produced by the UK government and independent researchers. Our results show that low-carbon objectives are uniformly associated with greater long-term diversity in UK electricity generation. With reference to data on wind generation we also consider the impact of source variability on a second dimension of security—the reliability of generation availability. We conclude that this does not undermine our fundamental conclusion that low-carbon scenarios are associated with greater strategic security of supply in UK electricity. We discuss reasons for this result, explore sensitivities, and briefly discuss possible policy instruments associated with diversity and their limitations.

In 2002 the German Parliament decided to exempt biofuels from the gasoline tax to increase their competitiveness compared to conventional gasoline. The policy to promote biofuels is being justified by their allegedly positive effects on climate, energy, and agricultural policy goals. An increased use of biofuels would contribute to sustainable development by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and the use of non-renewable resources. The paper takes a closer look at bio-ethanol as a substitute for gasoline. It analyzes the underlying basic German, European, and worldwide conditions that provide the setting for the production and promotion of biofuels. It is shown that the production of bio-ethanol in Germany is not competitive and that imports are likely to increase. Using energy and greenhouse-gas balances we then demonstrate that the promotion and a possible increased use of bio-ethanol to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions are economically inefficient and that there are preferred alternative strategies. In addition, scenarios of the future development of the bio-ethanol market are derived from a model that allows for variations in all decisive variables and reflects the entire production and trade chain of bio-ethanol, from the agricultural production of wheat and sugar beet to the consumption of bio-ethanol in the fuel sector.

This paper estimates a dynamic model of interfuel substitution for Swedish heating plants. We use the cost share linear logit model developed by Considine and Mount [Considine, T.J., Mount, T.D., 1984. The use of linear logit models for dynamic input demand systems. Review of Economics and Statistics 66, 434–443]. All estimated own-price elasticities are negative and all cross-price elasticities are positive. The estimated dynamic adjustment rate parameter is small, however, increasing with the size of the plant and time, indicating fast adjustments in the fuel mix when changing relative fuel prices. The estimated model is used to illustrate the effects of two different policy changes.

Over the last years Turkey has been increasingly associated in the international political and economic debate with concepts such as “gas corridor” and “gas hub”. This characterization of Turkey is clearly mainly due to its unique geographical position at the crossroads the Caspian region, the Middle East and Europe. In particular, this argument is often advanced in the political discussion on the rise of Turkey as a leading regional power and in the debate on the future prospects for the EU-Turkey relations. However, by going beyond the political slogans and by focusing on the concrete gas realities around Turkey this picture could be seriously put into question. The aim of this paper is to explore the real potential role of Turkey in the regional gas markets, firstly focusing on the current situation of gas producing countries around Turkey and then moving to the future prospects of gas cooperation in the region. To this end, the paper will provide an assessment of both the current situation and outlook of gas markets in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iraq, Iran, Israel and Cyprus, subsequently providing a discussion of the future prospects of the Southern Gas Corridor and of the potential Eastern Mediterranean Gas Corridor. This analysis will indicate that Turkey will hardly have the potential to become a regional gas hub in the medium term (up to 2020-2025). However, Turkey could have the potential to play an important role in the regional gas markets in the longer term (after 2025-2030) if a number of infrastructural, commercial and political barriers described in the paper are overcome and -last but not the least- if the EU gas demand recovers and the EU market actually needs more natural gas supplies.

Energy has been at the core of the EU integration since its inception. However, following the path of a shooting star, the key role of energy gradually declined over time, to the level of being basically left out from the Treaties, at least up to Lisbon. The EU has struggled to circumnavigate this “energy-gap” of the Treaties by legislating on energy-related issues by making use of its shared competences in the areas of internal market and environment. However, this effort has resulted in a very fragmented EU energy policy, also characterized by the absence of a major element: security of energy supply. After the 2014 Ukraine crisis a new momentum has emerged in the EU about the urgent need of creating a truly European energy policy, with both the new President of the EU Council and the new EU Commission calling for the creation of a EU Energy Union. This paper argues that the EU should seize this historical opportunity to fill the main long-lasting gap of its energy policy: security of energy supply. To this end, the paper proposes a set of new actions that might be undertaken in this field, also outlying that the most feasible option to the development of a new EU Energy Union seems to be the formation -through a scheme of differentiated integration- of a smaller coalition of Member States committed to quickly advance the integration of their energy policies under the principle that only by acting together the EU will be able to meet the growing energy challenges of the future.

This paper analyzes the trade-offs for using feed-in tariffs or tenders to remunerate different scales of solar photovoltaics (PV) projects. In recent years, European countries increasingly combined feed-in tariffs for small renewables systems with tenders for large installations. This study develops an analytic framework to quantify deployment effectiveness of responsive feed-in tariff adjustment mechanisms across project scales and to compare specific cost effectiveness factors of feed-in tariffs and tenders for PV plants with their dynamic cost trends. To assess deployment effectiveness, an analytic model is used to simulate installations and feed-in tariffs for different project sizes. Then semi-structured interviews with German and French project developers are conducted to identify additional factors to be considered for a comparison of feed-in tariffs and tenders, and to explore how different remuneration schemes impact cost of capital and transaction costs. The paper finally discusses the relative merits of feed-in tariffs and tenders.

We study the performance under uncertainty of three renewable energy policy instruments: Tradable Renewable Quota (TRQ), Feed-In-Tariff (FIT), and Feed-In-Premium (FIP). We develop a stylized model of the electricity market, where renewables are characterized by a positive learning externality, which the regulator aims to internalize. Assuming shocks on the fossil-based electricity supply, renewables supply, or on total electricity demand, we analytically derive the conditions determining the instruments’ relative welfare ranking. Although we generally confirm the key role of the slopes of marginal benefits and costs associated with the policy, the specific ranking depends on which type of uncertainty is considered, and whether shocks are permanent or transitory. However, a high learning rate generally favours the FIT, while TRQ is mostly dominated by the other two instruments. These results are confirmed in a numerical application to the US electricity market, in which the FIP emerges as the most robust overall choice and TRQ as the least robust.

The future diffusion of photovoltaic systems relies heavily on the ability of utilities and policy-makers to properly valorize such volatile renewable energy-sources technologies. We conduct a discrete choice experiment to investigate which types of business models for photovoltaic systems could bring the highest utility to the Italian households. Our focus is not just on the costs and benefits of a photovoltaic system, but also on features like system control and maintenance, the duration of the electricity supply contract, as well as preferred channels of purchase and installation. Most importantly, we also include alternatives with battery storage. The data analysis – based on the Hierarchical Bayes estimation technique – reveals credible preferences for PV photovoltaic systems with battery storage facilities controlled by the utility or solutions characterized by lower investment costs. Multivariate analysis of variance coupled with the estimation of a random effects model with mixture of normal distributions suggests the presence of some heterogeneity across adopters and knowledgeable non-adopters, the latter particularly involving risk perception. Sensitivity analysis provides additional evidence in favor or these findings. On the basis of the results, we provide utilities and policy-makers with final recommendations.

We present a theory of limit-pricing monopoly in non-renewable-resource production. Facing a very inelastic demand, an oil monopoly seeks to induce the highest price that does not destroy its demand, unlike the conventional Hotellian analysis: The monopoly tolerates some ordinary substitutes to its oil but deters high-potential ones. With limit pricing, policy-induced extraction changes do not obey the usual logic. For example, oil taxes have no effect on current oil production. Extraction increases when high-potential substitutes are promoted, but can be effectively reduced by supporting ordinary substitutes. The carbon tax not only applies to oil; it also penalizes its ordinary (carbon) substitutes, whose market shares are taken over by the monopoly. Thus, the carbon tax ambiguously affects current and long-term oil production and carbon emissions.

markdownabstract__Abstract__ Growing concern for climate change and rising scarcity of fossil fuels prompted governments to stimulate the development of renewables. This paper empirically tests whether feed-in tariff (FIT) policies have been effective in the development of photovoltaic solar (PV), explicitly taking into account structure and consistency of FITs. Panel data estimations are employed for 30 OECD member countries over the period 1990-2011. We find a positive effect of the presence of a FIT and the development of a country’s share of PV in the electricity-mix. This effect increases if policies are consistent. Tariff height is the most important characteristic of a FIT, but other characteristics such as cost level, duration of contract and restrictions on capacity levels can also not be neglected if the goal is to increase effectiveness of FITs.

Asia’s burgeoning energy demand has stimulated interest in photovoltaics, wind power, and unconventional gas (shale gas, tight gas, coal-bed methane, and coal-mine methane). For each of these, the resource, current status, future prospects, environmental implications, investment and infrastructure requirements, and risks are examined. Shale gas has revolutionized North American gas supply, but may develop slowly in Asia due to challenging geological conditions, lack of geological data, dense populations, and pipeline and service industry limitations. In the People’s Republic of China (PRC), with technically recoverable resources estimated at 20 gigatons of oil equivalent (20% of the world total), significant production may start around 2017–2020, followed 5 years later by India and possibly Pakistan, which have much smaller resources. Even by 2035, unconventional gas is unlikely to supply more than 4%–8% of primary energy in the PRC, India, and Indonesia. Environmental concerns include methane emissions during combustion and production, water and land requirements, and water contamination. The solar resource is excellent across developing Asia; the wind resource is strong in Afghanistan, the PRC, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Viet Nam. Levelized costs of electricity are higher for wind and photovoltaics than for domestic gas and coal, and low-cost hydro and nuclear, although by 2020 to 2030 the renewables will beat imported gas and coal, and higher-cost nuclear and hydro. To supply around 10% of developing Asia’s electricity in 2035, an investment of $900 billion would be required for wind and $1.4 trillion for photovoltaics, excluding infrastructure upgrades. The PRC and India are already world leaders in wind and photovoltaics.

This white paper explores a range of potentially attractive partnerships, including those between established US industry members, the entrepreneurial CE (clean energy) community, and the financial industry. These partnerships, include those that can leverage a wide range of entrepreneurial and industry resources that are needed to promote the development and commercialization of innovative new technologies - partnerships that in turn can lead to accelerated, global utilization of CE, as well as US global leadership for the CE industry. The need for these partnerships is discussed within the context of the growing interest in CE, driven in large part by the anticipated strong, global growth in energy demand, as well as by the need for a spectrum of other long term (e.g. environmental) benefits from CE. The impacts of the rapidly changing investment and the market environment for innovative CE technologies, are also explored. The strong need for multifaceted enabling partnerships and resources are found to go well beyond those corresponding to financing, and includes for example, expertise on markets and market creation, and product development. In addition, deep resource levels are often especially needed in the pursuit of high potential, next generation CE innovative supply technologies that require costly technology development. Such is the case for example, where sophisticated manufacturing approaches are needed to exploit promising, and high performance, material combinations along with novel and complex technology based hardware. Further, access to adequate resources for the needed, high cost, technology development is increasingly less likely to be available from traditional partners such as VCs and their limited partners. Of the key potential partners explored, Strategic Industry Partners (SIPs) are found to be particularly intriguing - they have the most robust range of appropriate resources to potentially benefit from these partnerships while also helping to fill the void in the commercialization food chain for technology development, where VC funding is not available. SIPs also play a broad enabling role for the growth of the entrepreneurial US based, CE industry. Moreover, SIPs also have the required stature and influence to impact global markets as well as to promote global US leadership in CE, while also contributing to the dialogue around public-private partnerships. While SIPs have stringent requirements for partnering, as well as intense competition for their resource investments, successfully pursuing mutually attractive partnerships with SIPs should be well worth the required effort.

The central pillar of European climate policy, the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), is currently under scrutiny, as the allowance price is persistently low at around 5€/tCO2. The cap was met and emissions actually declined in recent years, ensuring the environmental effectiveness of the scheme. However, the low price may affect the long-term cost-effectiveness of the instrument by reducing the incentive for investment and deployment of low carbon technologies. No significant increase in the allowance price is expected before 2020, and probably not beyond, without reform. While the reasons for the price decline are controversial, empirical analysis shows that only a small portion of price fluctuations can be explained by factors such as the economic crisis, renewable deployment or international offsets. Therefore, it is likely that political factors and regulatory uncertainty have played a key role in the price decline. As a consequence, any reform of the EU ETS has to deliver a mechanism that reduces such uncertainty and stabilizes expectations of market participants. The Market Stability Reserve proposed by the EU Commission is unlikely to address the current problem of price uncertainty and insufficient dynamic efficiency. The key element of the alternative reform proposal described in this paper is to set a price collar in the EU ETS with lower and upper boundaries. This is likely to reinforce the long-term credibility and reliability of the price signal. In addition, a price for GHG emissions not covered by the EU ETS has to be set. If additional market failures prevent the market from functioning efficiently, specific policy instruments related to innovation and technology diffusion should be implemented in addition to carbon pricing. Carbon leakage could be addressed through tailor-made trade policies. In parallel, increasing the coalition of countries included in the carbon pricing should remain a priority. This reform package would bring the EU ETS back to life, while avoiding a relapse into potentially costly and inefficient national climate and energy policies.