1. Evaluating a Cox marginal structural model to assess the comparative effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroids versus no inhaled corticosteroid treatment in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
- Author
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Katarina Hedman, Mario Ouwens, Céline Quélen, Jennifer K Quint, U. Rigney, and Claudia Cabrera
- Subjects
Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Exacerbation ,Epidemiology ,Marginal structural model ,Muscarinic Antagonists ,Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive ,Adrenal Cortex Hormones ,Internal medicine ,Administration, Inhalation ,Humans ,Medicine ,Adrenergic beta-2 Receptor Agonists ,Retrospective Studies ,Asthma ,COPD ,biology ,business.industry ,Retrospective cohort study ,Lama ,biology.organism_classification ,medicine.disease ,Confidence interval ,Models, Structural ,Clinical trial ,Female ,business - Abstract
Purpose To evaluate the potential of a Cox marginal structural model (MSM) to estimate the time-varying causal inference of a known clinical trial association where the effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroid- (ICS-) versus non-ICS-containing treatments has been compared in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods This retrospective study from 2006 to 2016 used linked data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics mortality. A Cox MSM, incorporating a new-user design, was deemed capable of replicating a clinical trial-like pathway. Repeated outcomes for exacerbation events and stabilised weights were used to include time-varying and fixed covariate exposures. Results Of 45,958 patients, 55% were male; 52% had moderate COPD. ICS-treated patients had a higher incidence of comorbid asthma than non-ICS-treated patients. Adjusted hazard risk ratios for any exacerbation event: ICS/long-acting β2-agonist (LABA) versus long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA), 1.07 (95% confidence interval 1.04-1.10); ICS/LABA versus LABA/LAMA, 1.05 (1.00-1.10); ICS/LABA/LAMA versus LAMA, 1.04 (1.01-1.06); ICS/LABA/LAMA versus LABA/LAMA 1.02 (0.97-1.07). Conclusions The Cox MSM was not able to fully demonstrate results consistent with the previously established benefits of ICS-containing treatments seen in clinical trials. Future studies should continue to investigate causal inference methods and their capability to estimate the long-term outcomes of treatment in COPD.
- Published
- 2022
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