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Background: Predominant explanations of the victim-offender overlap tend to focus on shared causes, such as (low) self-control or risky lifestyles. Such explanations bypass the possibility of a causal link between victimization and offending. We draw on developmental psychology and criminological research to propose and test the hypothesis that victimization induces what we refer to as a short-term mindset, i.e., an orientation towards the here-and-now at the expense of considering the future, which in turn increases offending. Methods: We test this mediation hypothesis using structural equation modeling of longitudinal data from a representative sample of urban youth from the city of Zurich, Switzerland (N = 1,675). Results: In line with our preregistered predictions, we find that short-term mindsets mediate the effect of victimization on offending, net of prior levels of offending and short-term mindsets, and other controls. Conclusions: We discuss implications for criminological theory and interventions. Keywords: longitudinal; structural equation models; short-term mindsets; future uncertainty; adversity; victim-offender overlap

Background Short-term mindsets interfere with the consideration of future consequences and therefore predict negative behaviors. We developed a smartphone-based intervention aiming to increase a future-oriented mindset and personal goal attainment by strengthening future self-identification and stimulating episodic future thinking. The aims of the study are 1) to examine users' experiences with the application and their treatment adherence, 2) to examine the effectiveness of the intervention, and 3) to explore which intervention modules generate the strongest changes in key outcomes. Methods First-year university students (N = 166) will be randomly assigned to two conditions: 1) the smartphone-based intervention, or 2) a goal-setting control group. The intervention consists of three week-long modules. Data will be collected at the start of the intervention, at weekly intervals during the intervention, immediately after the intervention, and at 3-month follow-up (and at parallel time points for the control group). We will assess users' experiences, application usage data, primary intervention outcomes (e.g., self-defeating behavior, future orientation, future self-identification), and secondary intervention outcomes (e.g., psychosocial wellbeing, self-efficacy). Discussion The study will provide information about users' experiences with the application, the intervention's general effectiveness, and which intervention modules show most promise. This information will be used to further develop the application and optimize this novel intervention. Trial registration The trial is registered in the Netherlands Trial Register (number: NL9671) on 16 August 2021.