1. Accurate outcome prediction after neo-adjuvant radio-chemotherapy for rectal cancer based on a TCP-based early regression index.
- Author
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Fiorino C, Passoni P, Palmisano A, Gumina C, Cattaneo GM, Broggi S, Di Chiara A, Esposito A, Mori M, Ronzoni M, Rosati R, Slim N, De Cobelli F, Calandrino R, and Di Muzio NG
- Abstract
Background and Purpose: An early tumor regression index (ERI
TCP ) was previously introduced and found to predict pathological response after neo-adjuvant radio-chemotherapy of rectal cancer. ERITCP was tested as a potential biomarker in predicting long-term disease-free survival., Materials and Methods: Data of 65 patients treated with an early regression-guided adaptive boosting technique (ART) were available. Overall, loco-regional relapse-free and distant metastasis-free survival (OS, LRFS, DMFS) were considered. Patients received 41.4 Gy in 18 fractions (2.3 Gy/fr), including ART concomitant boost on the residual GTV during the last 6 fractions (3 Gy/fr, Dmean : 45.6 Gy). Chemotherapy included oxaliplatin and 5-fluorouracil (5-FU). T2-weighted MRI taken before (MRIpre ) and at half therapy (MRIhalf ) were available and GTVs were contoured (Vpre , Vhalf ). The parameter ERITCP = -ln[(1 - (Vhalf /Vpre ))Vpre ] was calculated for all patients. Cox regression models were assessed considering several clinical and histological variables. Cox models not including/including ERITCP (CONV_model and REGR_model respectively) were assessed and their discriminative power compared., Results: At a median follow-up of 47 months, OS, LRFS and DMFS were 94%, 95% and 78%. Due to too few events, multivariable analyses focused on DMFS: the resulting CONV_model included pathological complete remission or clinical complete remission followed by surgery refusal (HR: 0.15, p = 0.07) and 5-FU dose >90% (HR: 0.29, p = 0.03) as best predictors, with AUC = 0.75. REGR_model included ERITCP (HR: 1.019, p < 0.0001) and 5-FU dose >90% (HR: 0.18, p = 0.005); AUC was 0.86, significantly higher than CONV_model (p = 0.05). Stratifying patients according to the best cut-off value for ERITCP and to 5-FU dose (> vs <90%) resulted in 47-month DMFS equal to 100%/69%/0% for patients with two/one/zero positive factors respectively (p = 0.0002). ERITCP was also the only variable significantly associated to OS (p = 0.01) and LRFS (p = 0.03)., Conclusion: ERITCP predicts long-term DMFS after radio-chemotherapy for rectal cancer: an independent impact of the 5-FU dose was also found. This result represents a first step toward application of ERITCP in treatment personalization: additional confirmation on independent cohorts is warranted., Competing Interests: None.- Published
- 2019
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