Search

Background: Preventive therapy for tuberculosis reduces the risk of disease in people who have been infected but who are not sick. Countries with a high burden of tuberculosis that are expanding preventive therapy use must decide how tuberculosis infection testing should be used for risk stratification among household contacts of patients with tuberculosis., Methods: We modelled the risks of tuberculosis disease and severe adverse events, comparing the following two preventive therapy strategies: preventive therapy for all household contacts, or preventive therapy for only household contacts with a positive tuberculin skin test (TST) result. We used data from clinical trials and literature on tuberculosis natural history to model outcomes, assuming different preventive therapy regimens, ages, and TST positivity prevalence., Findings: Assuming 25% prevalence of TST positivity among 1000 household contacts aged 0-17 years, a treat-all approach with isoniazid and rifapentine compared with a treat-TST-only approach led to 13 fewer incident tuberculosis cases (IQR -5 to -18) and four additional severe adverse events (2 to 6). With rifampicin, the difference was 11 fewer incident tuberculosis cases (-3 to -17) and two additional severe adverse events (1 to 3). For adults, a treat-all approach led to fewer incident tuberculosis cases, and additional adverse events increased with age. Assuming 25% prevalence of TST positivity among adult contacts, a treat-all approach would lead to around two fewer tuberculosis cases per 1000 contacts for all regimens; the number of additional severe adverse events ranged from seven (IQR 5 to 8) for 18 to 34-year-olds treated with rifampicin to 63 (50 to 74) for people older than 64 years treated with isoniazid and rifapentine. A rifampicin-only regimen was associated with the fewest additional severe adverse events (seven [IQR 5 to 8] per 1000 adults aged 18-34 years and 35-64 years, and 17 [9 to 23] per 1000 adults older than 64 years)., Interpretation: Based on the available data, giving preventive therapy to all household contacts would probably reduce the incidence of tuberculosis cases in high-burden settings. Adverse events could be minimised by using non-isoniazid regimens and, in adults older than 18 years, focusing treatment on individuals with a positive infection test., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and UK Department for International Development., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Tuberculosis is recognised as a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children, with most cases in children going undiagnosed and resulting in poor outcomes. Household contact management, which aims to identify children with active tuberculosis and to provide preventive therapy for those with HIV or those younger than 5 years, has long been recommended but has very poor coverage globally. New guidelines include widespread provision of preventive therapy to children with a positive tuberculin skin test (TST) who are older than 5 years., Methods: In this mathematical modelling study, we provide the first global and national estimates of the impact of moving from zero to full coverage of household contact management (with and without preventive therapy for TST-positive children older than 5 years). We assembled data on tuberculosis notifications, household structure, household contact co-prevalence of tuberculosis disease and infection, the efficacy of preventive therapy, and the natural history of childhood tuberculosis. We used a model to estimate households visited, children screened, and treatment courses given for active and latent tuberculosis. We calculated the numbers of tuberculosis cases, deaths, and life-years lost because of tuberculosis for each intervention scenario and country., Findings: We estimated that full implementation of household contact management would prevent 159 500 (75% uncertainty interval [UI] 147 000-170 900) cases of tuberculosis and 108 400 (75% UI 98 800-116 700) deaths in children younger than 15 years (representing the loss of 7 305 000 [75% UI 6 663 000-7 874 000] life-years). We estimated that preventing one child death from tuberculosis would require visiting 48 households, screening 77 children, giving 48 preventive therapy courses, and giving two tuberculosis treatments versus no household contact management., Interpretation: Household contact management could substantially reduce childhood disease and death caused by tuberculosis globally. Funding and research to optimise its implementation should be prioritised., Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health, Fulbright Commission, Janssen Global Public Health., (Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Tuberculosis in children is increasingly recognised as an important component of the global tuberculosis burden, with an estimated 1 million cases in 2015. Although younger children are vulnerable to severe forms of tuberculosis disease, no age-disaggregated estimates of paediatric tuberculosis mortality exist, and tuberculosis has never been included in official estimates of under-5 child mortality. We aimed to produce a global mortality burden estimate in children using a complementary approach not dependent on vital registration data., Methods: In this mathematical modelling study, we estimated deaths in children younger than 5 years and those aged 5-14 years for 217 countries and territories using a case-fatality-based approach. We used paediatric tuberculosis notification data and HIV and antiretroviral treatment estimates to disaggregate the WHO paediatric tuberculosis incidence estimates by age, HIV, and treatment status. We then applied systematic review evidence on corresponding case-fatality ratios., Findings: We estimated that 239 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 194 000-298 000) children younger than 15 years died from tuberculosis worldwide in 2015; 80% (191 000, 95% UI 132 000-257 000) of these deaths were in children younger than 5 years. More than 70% (182 000, 140 000-239 000) of deaths occurred in the WHO southeast Asia and Africa regions. We estimated that 39 000 (17%, 23 000-73 000) paediatric tuberculosis deaths worldwide were in children with HIV infections, with 31 000 (36%, 19 000-59 000) in the WHO Africa region. More than 96% (230 000, 185 000-289 000) of all tuberculosis deaths occurred in children not receiving tuberculosis treatment., Interpretation: Tuberculosis is a top ten cause of death in children worldwide and a key omission from previous analyses of under-5 mortality. Almost all these deaths occur in children not on tuberculosis treatment, implying substantial scope to reduce this burden., Funding: UNITAID, National Institutes of Health, and National Institute for Health Research., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)