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The objective of this study was to evaluate risks related to introduction of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) to farmed cervid herds in Minnesota (MN), Pennsylvania (PA), and Wisconsin (WI). This was the first study to evaluate risk factors related to multiple pathways of CWD transmission to farmed cervid herds. Participating herds in this case-control study included 22 case and 49 control herds identified through participation in the respective mandatory State CWD herd program. Data was voluntarily collected from white-tailed deer (WTD) study herds using a questionnaire and state animal health agency databases. Univariable analyses identified associations between CWD-positive herds and variables representing different transmission pathways, including direct contact with infected farmed cervids (imported from a herd that later tested positive for CWD) odds ratio (OR):7.16, 95 % confidence intervals (CI):1.64-31.21 and indirect contact with infected wild cervids (access of domestic cats to pens or feed storage area) OR:4.07, 95 % CI:1.35-12.26, observed evidence of mammalian scavengers inside or outside of fenceline in the previous 12 months OR:6.55, 95 % CI:1.37-31.32, ≤ 5 km distance to nearest detected CWD-positive wild cervid OR:3.08, 95 % CI:1.01-9.39, forested area crosses the perimeter fenceline OR:3.54, 95 % CI:1.13-11.11, ≤ 0.3 m distance of water source to fenceline OR:4.71, 95 % CI:1.60-13.83, and water source shared with wild cervids (running or standing water) OR:4.17, 95 % CI:1.34-12.92. Three variables from univariable analyses that represented different biological transmission pathways were placed in a Firth's penalized maximum likelihood multivariable logistic regression to evaluate associations between transmission pathway and CWD herd infection status. For the issue of low sample size and overfitting, 95 % CIs for estimated coefficients for the three variables were computed via bootstrapping of 10,000 independent bootstrap samples. The three biological variables were significantly associated with herd CWD infection status: imported cervids from a herd that later tested positive for CWD (OR:5.63; 95 % CI:1.1-28.2), ≤ 0.3 m distance of cervid water source to perimeter fenceline (OR:4.83; 95 % CI:1.5-16.1), and ≤ 5 km distance to nearest detected CWD-positive wild cervid (OR:4.10; 95 % CI:1.1-15.2). The risk factors associated with CWD herd status identified in this study indicated the importance of transmission through direct contact pathways with infected cervid herds (introduction of cervids from herds later identified as CWD-infected) and indirect contact pathways with infected wild cervids that could be related to other animals through the perimeter fence. Further studies are needed to confirm and clarify understanding of indirect pathways to allow development of improved biosecurity practices to prevent CWD introduction to cervid herds., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Prevention and control of infectious diseases in livestock is dependent upon perceived risk and susceptibility, including the prevention of between-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis through introductions of cattle to susceptible herds. To examine how perceived risk and susceptibility can help to inform policymaking in disease surveillance and control, we used factorial surveys to profile risk perceptions of cattle producers. We found that government indemnity and slaughtering policy did not impact the cattle purchasing behavior of producers who responded to our survey, but rather through other attributes such as the reliability or reputation of the seller. In addition, we identified significant production type and gender differences in purchasing behavior and risk perception. Finally, clustering analysis revealed a group of high-risk respondents characterized as experienced and very dedicated owners of established medium to large size herds. With the increasing availability of business data, assessment of producer's behavior, personalities and attitudes allows policymakers to understand the needs of cattle producers and develop tailored programs that will improve producer cooperation with government agencies., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Scott Wells reports financial support was provided by University of Minnesota Twin Cities., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Chronic wasting disease is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that affects cervids with a clinical picture of muscle wasting in infected animals. The objective of this study was to quantify movement patterns of farmed cervids in the state of Minnesota as a model for identifying potential disease mitigation points. Time aggregated network analysis was performed on data consisting of 1221 intra-state cervid movements from farms located within Minnesota (n = 432 farms). Intra-state movements accounted for 48.2 % of all documented movements (2578) in Minnesota from 2013 to 2018; the remaining movements were inter-state. Annual networks were sparse in nature with low graph densities (6.9 × 10 -4 - 1.4 × 10 -3 ) and transitivity (0.06-0.12). Frequency of movements increased significantly (p < 0.05) in the months of September and October before decreasing in November, which coincided with the breeding and hunting seasons. Some of these contacts were as far as 500 km apart. The median length of infection chains for CWD positive farms was estimated to be 5.0 and 6.0 farms in-and out-going infection chains, respectively. A k-test analysis demonstrated that the observed median number of infected farms directly connected to other infected farms was 2.0, which was significantly higher than a fortuitous event (p = 0.002). Movements of cervids between farms were largely unpredictable with very low edge overlap (mean 0.02 %) from year to year, suggesting that persistent commercial relationships among farms were rare. In conclusion, long distance trade movements present a risk for spread of chronic wasting disease in Minnesota. The sparse networks and unpredictable farm contacts could be because cervid production is not as vertically integrated as other species-differentiated and established industries, such as swine or poultry. Our analytical approach can be used to understand chronic wasting disease in other states in the U.S. and North America in general., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

In the United States, slaughter surveillance combined with other measures has effectively maintained a very low prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). However, bTB continues to be sporadically detected, causing substantial economic burden to the government and cattle producers. To detect the infection earlier and reduce sudden economic losses, additional risk-based surveillance of live animals might be more cost-effective than slaughter surveillance alone to detect and prevent bTB infection. The objective of this study was to evaluate alternative risk-based surveillance strategies targeting high-risk herds to complement slaughter surveillance in a region with very low bTB prevalence. We developed an integrated within- and between-herd bTB transmission model with simulated premises-level cattle movements among beef and dairy herds in Minnesota for 10 years. We constructed ten risk-based surveillance strategies for beef herds and dairy herds, and predicted the epidemiological outcomes and costs for each strategy in combination with slaughter surveillance. Our models showed that slaughter surveillance alone resulted in low risk of between-herd transmission with typically small outbreak sizes, and also cost less compared to alternative risk-based surveillance measures. However, risk-based surveillance strategies could reduce the time to detect infection and the time to reach disease freedom by up to 9 months. At a higher initial prevalence, alternative risk-based surveillance could reduce the number of infected herds and shorten the time to disease freedom by almost 3 years (34-35 months). Our findings suggest that risk-based surveillance could detect infection more quickly and allow affected regions to reach disease freedom faster. If the bTB status of the affected regions changes after an outbreak happens, the reduced time to disease freedom could reduce the economic impact on the affected region., (Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic disease of cattle caused by infection with the Mycobacterium bovis. While bTB prevalence in Uruguay has been low (<11 outbreaks/year) for the past 50 years as a consequence of a national control program, annual incidence increased in 2011 through 2013-15, 26 and 16 infected herds each year, raising concerns from livestock stakeholders and the government. The goal of this study was to assess the spatial dynamics of bTB in Uruguay from 2011 to 2013 and the association between bTB and potential demographic and movement risk factors at the herd level using data provided by the Uruguayan Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture, and Fisheries. Clustering of incident outbreaks was assessed using the Cuzick-Edwards' test and the Bernoulli model of the spatial scan statistic, and a conditional multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess risk factors associated with bTB in a subset of Uruguayan dairy farms. Significant (P<0.05) global clustering was detected in 2012, while high-risk local clusters were detected in southwestern (2011, 2012, 2013), northwestern (2012), and southeastern (2012) Uruguay. Increased risk of bTB in different regions of Uruguay suggests a potential role of animal movements in disease dissemination. Larger herds, higher numbers of animals purchased, and incoming steers to the farm were associated with increased odds of breaking with bTB, in agreement with previous studies but also suggesting other additional sources of risk. These results will contribute to enhanced effectiveness of bTB control programs in Uruguay with the ultimate objective of preventing or mitigating the impact of the disease in the human and animal populations of the country., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Movement of livestock between premises is one of the foremost factors contributing to the spread of infectious diseases of livestock. In part to address this issue, the origin and destination for all cattle movements in Uruguay are registered by law. This information has great potential to be used in assessing the risk of disease spread in the Uruguayan cattle population. Here, we analyze cattle movements from 2008 to 2013 using network analysis in order to understand the flows of animals in the Uruguayan cattle industry and to identify targets for surveillance and control measures. Cattle movements were represented as seasonal and annual networks in which farms represented nodes and nodes were linked based on the frequency and quantity of cattle moved. At the farm level, the distribution of the number of unique farms each farm is connected to through outgoing and incoming movements, as well as the number of animals moved, was highly right-skewed; the majority of farms had few to no contacts, whereas the 10% most highly connected farms accounted for 72-83% of animals moved annually. This extreme level of heterogeneity in movement patterns indicates that some farms may be disproportionately important for pathogen spread. Different production types exhibited characteristic patterns of farm-level connectivity, with some types, such a dairies, showing consistently higher levels of centrality. In addition, the observed networks were characterized by lower levels of connectivity and higher levels of heterogeneity than random networks of the same size and density, both of which have major implications for disease dynamics and control strategies. This represents the first in-depth analysis of farm-level livestock movements within South America, and highlights the importance of collecting livestock movement data in order to understand the vulnerability of livestock trade networks to invasion by infectious diseases., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Our objective was to summarize information on the diagnostic accuracy, in terms of test sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp), for bovine tuberculosis (bTb) tuberculin skin tests as currently used in the United States. Meta-analyses including Se and Sp estimates from field studies of bTb tuberculin tests conducted in North American cattle were conducted to provide a distribution of estimates and central tendency for Se and Sp of the caudal fold tuberculin (CFT) and serial interpretation of the CFT and comparative cervical tuberculin (CFT-CCT) tests. In total, 12 estimates for CFT and CFT-CCT test Se and Sp were identified from seven publications matching inclusion criteria. Estimates for CFT test Se ranged from 80.4% to 93.0% and CFT test Sp from 89.2% to 95.2%. Estimates for CFT-CCT test Se ranged from 74.4% to 88.4% and CFT-CCT test Sp ranged from 97.3% to 98.6%. These distributions of test Se and Sp are intended to provide a more realistic representation for U.S. bTb skin tests than previously reported. Estimation and discussion of herd-level CFT and CFT-CCT test parameters is also included. These results should be considered at the herd and individual animal level when evaluating results from tuberculin skin test results in North American cattle herds., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The objective was to detect presence of calves excreting Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in their feces as a consequence of being born to MAP fecal culture positive (vs. negative) dams. For each cow that was about to calf, approximately 10g of feces was collected manually by the herdsmen from the rectum using a disposable plastic examination sleeve within 48-72h prior to actual calving. Between 1 and 3d of birth, herd personnel collected approximately 10g of fecal samples followed by monthly visits to the farm at which time 10g of fecal samples were again collected by study investigators from each calf at approximately 30, 60 and 90d of age. Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis was recovered from 8% (5/60) of the cows that gave birth to calves. However, MAP was not recovered from any of the fecal samples (0/240) collected from study calves. Findings of the present study suggest lack of evidence for fecal excretion of MAP in calves born to fecal culture positive (vs. negative) dams in a heavily infected herd., (Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Epidemiologic information, including animal characteristics (e.g., observable risk factors or clinical signs) predisposing to animal disease, is frequently used for design of targeted surveillance systems, but this information is infrequently used for population inference. In this study, we report the evaluation of use of epidemiologic information for population inference in targeted surveillance in three animal disease scenarios. We adapted sampling theory using Monte Carlo methods to determine target population sample size to detect disease with 95% confidence, using information from the epidemiologic parameters risk ratio and fraction of the population with the characteristic. These parameters and their uncertainties were derived from a reference population. The next step was to use a second (sampled) population to evaluate effects of sampling the targeted population. The focus of the study was on estimation of prevalence. Our results showed that if one is less certain of the epidemiologic parameters, a rational decision is to model the input parameter distributions reflecting this uncertainty, thereby increasing the sample size above the minimum needed for the detection of the disease with a known confidence. Targeted surveillance is appropriate for prevalence estimation when one has representative and justifiable estimates of key epidemiologic parameters.

Surveys of animal populations are often designed to either demonstrate freedom from disease or to estimate parameters that describe the population, such as disease prevalence, proportion of vaccinated animals, or average animal weight and value. Targeted surveillance is a sampling approach where animals are selected for testing based on the presence of characteristics that indicate a higher probability of disease. This approach can substantially reduce the sample size that is required to demonstrate freedom from disease, but inferences about other population parameters are generally not possible because the sample design often lacks the properties required for making inferences in a traditional survey sample. Determining which animals to sample can also be difficult when either more than one characteristic exists or the characteristic is a continuous attribute, such as age or weight. Poisson sampling is an unequal probability sampling design that can provide efficiencies similar to targeted surveillance while allowing inferences for other population parameters. The adaptation of Poisson sampling to animal surveys is described. A simulation study, based on sampling a flock of sheep, is used to demonstrate the reductions in sample size that are possible with Poisson sampling. The study showed that the sample size required for a flock-level sensitivity of 0.95 when using Poisson sampling was less than half that required when using simple random sampling. The performance of estimators for prevalence of scrapie and distribution of genotypes are also compared.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of single cow calving pens that are cleaned between calvings vs. multiple cow calving pens for the prevention of calf diarrhea (scours), respiratory disease (pneumonia) and morbidity attributable to any cause. Every other pregnant cow or heifer was moved to either the single cow calving pen (treatment) or the multiple cow calving pen (control) within 48-72 h prior to actual calving. The calves born in the single cow calving pens were assigned to the treatment group while the calves born in the multiple calving pens were assigned to the control group. Fecal materials, placental remains, and any other conspicuous dirt were removed from the single cow calving pens between each calving prior to the introduction of the next pregnant cow. The calves were then separated from their dams within 2h of birth. Multiple cow calving pens were managed as usual at the producers' discretion. Upon birth, the calf managers monitored each enrolled calf for signs of diarrhea, pneumonia plus other morbidity up to 90 d of age. The effects of single cow calving pens (vs. multiple cow calving pens) that are cleaned between calvings on the risk of neonatal calf diseases were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression models. Risk of diarrhea (OR=0.93, P=0.75), pneumonia (OR=1.23, P=0.64), and morbidity due to any cause (OR=0.93, P=0.74) were not significantly different between calves born in single cow vs. multiple cow calving pens. The current study found that, given the management situation evaluated, calves born in single cow calving pens were no different than calves born in multiple cow calving pens with respect to calf diseases risk. Long-term follow-up of the calves enrolled in the present study is ongoing to determine the efficacy of single cow calving pen use for the possible prevention of transmission of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in Holstein calves.

Targeted sampling is an increasingly popular method of data collection in animal-based epidemiologic studies. This sampling approach allows the user to exclusively choose samples from subpopulations that have a higher likelihood of the disease of interest. This is achieved by selecting animals from a subpopulation that exhibits some characteristic that indicates a higher probability of the presence of the disease. Inferences drawn from a targeted sample require information regarding the epidemiology of the disease under surveillance, which is generally not known with certainty. This study describes estimators for both the detection of disease and the estimation of prevalence when targeted sampling is employed. Modifications of these estimators are provided that account for the uncertainty in the parameters that describe the epidemiology of the disease. Results of a simulation study are provided to illustrate the effect of the uncertainty in these parameters.

We developed a stochastic simulation model to compare the herd sensitivity (HSe) of five testing strategies for detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) in Midwestern US dairies. Testing strategies were ELISA serologic testing by two commercial assays (EA and EB), ELISA testing with follow-up of positive samples with individual fecal culture (EAIFC and EBIFC), individual fecal culture (IFC), pooled fecal culture (PFC), and culture of fecal slurry samples from the environment (ENV). We assumed that these dairies had no prior paratuberculosis-related testing and culling. We used cost-effectiveness (CE) analysis to compare the cost to HSe of testing strategies for different within-herd prevalences. HSe was strongly associated with within-herd prevalence, number of Map organisms shed in feces by infected cows, and number of samples tested. Among evaluated testing methods with 100% herd specificity (HSp), ENV was the most cost-effective method for herds with a low (5%), moderate (16%) or high (35%) Map prevalence. The PFC, IFC, EAIFC and EBIFC were increasingly more costly detection methods. Culture of six environmental samples per herd yielded >or=99% HSe in herds with >or=16% within-herd prevalence, but was not sufficient to achieve 95% HSe in low-prevalence herds (5%). Testing all cows using EAIFC or EBIFC, as is commonly done in paratuberculosis-screening programs, was less likely to achieve a HSe of 95% in low than in high prevalence herds. ELISA alone was a sensitive and low-cost testing method; however, without confirmatory fecal culture, testing 30 cows in non-infected herds yielded HSp of 21% and 91% for EA and EB, respectively.

Our objectives were to identify associations between clinical or subclinical diseases and subsequent culling because of clinical Johne's disease (JD) or the detection of fecal shedding of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis (Map) after 305 days in milk (DIM). A total of 1297 cows from two Minnesota dairies were enrolled in the study. From study cows, fecal samples were obtained prior to calving (close-up period) and after at least 305 DIM or at the time of leaving the herd (sold/dead). Between 3 and 21 DIM, blood samples were obtained for serum betahydroxybutyrate (BHB) and serum total-protein testing. Body-condition score (BCS) was evaluated during the close-up period, between 3 and 21 DIM, and at the end of lactation. The diagnosis time (DIM) of clinical disease events (culling because of JD clinical signs, ketosis, lameness, mastitis, displacement abomasum, injury, metritis, milk fever, pneumonia, and retained placenta) was recorded. Sixty-six cows were culled because of JD clinical signs (CCDJ) with average DIM of 209. CCDJ was associated with event of pneumonia (n=131) (OR=3.0, 95% CI=1.0-6.0) and level of fecal shedding (light: OR=13.0, 95% CI=5.3-30.0; moderate: OR=34.0, 95% CI=13.0-89.0; heavy: OR=66.0, 95% CI=26.0-171.0). Detection of fecal shedding at the end of the lactation (n=79) was associated only with event of pneumonia (OR=2.0, 95% CI=1.0-4.0).

Lactation performance of cows infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) was previously studied using only serum ELISA as a diagnostic method. This study evaluated on two dairy farms in Minnesota, USA the lactation performance (measures of health, production, reproduction, and survival) of cows shedding Map in feces before calving and of cows culled with clinical signs consistent with Johne's disease (JD) during the subsequent lactation. Fecal samples were collected from 1052 cows within 21 day before calving and tested for Map with bacterial culture. Producers' observed signs of clinical disease (milk fever, retained placenta, metritis, ketosis, displaced abomasum, lameness, mastitis, pneumonia, and JD) and production and reproduction data were recorded for each cow. The association between fecal shedding or clinical JD and lactation performance was evaluated. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association with any clinical and subclinical diseases as the outcome. General linear model was used to evaluate the association with milk production, and survival analysis techniques were used to evaluate the association with days in the study before culling and days from calving to conception. In 84 cows (8% of 1052 cows) fecal samples were positive for Map (46% light, 26% moderate, and 28% heavy shedders). In multivariable analysis, light, moderate, and heavy fecal shedding cows produced on average 537, 1403, and 1534 kg, respectively, less milk per lactation and 1.4, 5.2, and 7.5 kg, respectively, less milk per day than fecal negative cows. Fecal culture positive cows were less likely to be bred and conceive. In the multivariable analysis the 56 cows culled with presumed JD produced approximately 1500 kg/lactation or 5 kg/day less than all other cows. The negative economic impact implied by decreased lactation performance in cows shedding Map or with clinical JD may motivate producers to implement programs to control Map infection and subsequent JD.

The objectives of this study were to: (1) characterize Minnesota dairy herds participating in a Johne's disease control program (JDCP) based on herd size, milk production, and clinical Johne's disease (JD) history, (2) evaluate if change in farm management practices, expressed in risk assessment (RA) total score, is associated with the change between the first and most recent ELISA test herd seroprevalence or change in clinical JD culling rate, and (3) identify farm factors associated with ELISA seroprevalence. A total of 1234 RA, performed between January 2000 and February 2004, were available for analysis from 714 dairy herds. ELISA test results from herd sampling between 2000 and 2004 were obtained from the Minnesota board of animal health (MBAH) database, and were available for 474 herds. Both the first and the most recent ELISA test results for herds with more than one RA were available for 262 herds. Mean herd size and mean annual milk production per cow was higher in JDCP dairy herds (161 milking cows) than either all Minnesota dairy herds or Minnesota dairy herd improvement association (DHIA) herds. For herds with more than one RA available, the most recent RA total score was significantly lower (mean 11% less) than the first. The change in RA total score (and any RA subtotal scores) between the first and most recent RA was not associated with the change between the first and the most recent ELISA within-herd seroprevalence or the change in JD culling rate between the first and most recent RA. The most recent ELISA test results were positively associated with postweaned heifer score and JD culling rate. The RA score was not found to be an effective tool for the prediction of ELISA seroprevalence.