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PurposeThis study aimed to identify driving factors of safety attitudinal ambivalence (AA) and explore their influence. Construction workers' intention to act safely can be instable under conflicting information from safety management, co-workers and habitual unsafe behaviour. Existing research explained the mechanism of unsafe behaviours as individual decisions but failed to include AA, as the co-existence of both positive and negative attitude.Design/methodology/approachThis study applied system dynamics to explore factors of construction workers' AA and simulate the process of mitigating the ambivalence for less safety behaviour. Specifically, the group model building approach with eight experts was used to map the causal loop diagram and field questionnaire of 209 construction workers were used to collect empirical data for initiating parameters.FindingsThe group model building identified five direct factors of AA, namely the organisational safety support, important others' safety attitude, emotional arousal, safety production experience and work pressure, with seven feedback paths. The questionnaire survey obtained the initial values of the factors in the SD model, with the average ambivalence at 0.389. The ambivalence between cognitive and affective safety attitude was the highest. Model simulation results indicated that safety experience and work pressure had the most significant effects, and safety experience and positive attitude of co-workers could compensate the pressure from tight schedule and budget.Originality/valueThis study provided a new perspective of the dynamic safety attitude under the co-existence of positive and negative attitude, identified its driving factors and their influencing paths. The group model building approach and field questionnaire surveys were used to provide convincible suggestions for empirical safety management with least and most effective approaches and possible interventions to prevent unsafe behaviour with tight schedule and budget.

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate the latent interrelationships of causes and effects of design deficiencies (DDs) and to identify the most crucial ones by considering the interactions among them.Design/methodology/approachFirst, through a comprehensive literature review, the most critical causes of DDs were identified. The review eventuated in a list of 22 causes and 12 effects, which were categorized into six groups. Second, through the rules of system dynamics and the interactions between the causes and effects were modeled and illustrated using causal loop diagrams (CLDs). With the aid of semi-structured interviews with 20 competent experts, the resultant CLDs were also validated. Third, the opinions of 54 experts, who were chosen from the Iranian community of clients and consultants, were solicited concerning the degree of influence which each factor (causes or effects) exerts on others. Finally, the social network analysis (SNA) approach was deployed to analyze and prioritize factors based on the gathered data from experts.FindingsSNA results indicated that factors such as “design firms' staff rework” and “design firms' loss of reputation” are the most central factors affecting DDs. The model results also identified that factors such as “schedule variance”, “workload” and “lack of quality control and supervision during the design phase” have the highest overall impact on DDs. In the end, some recommendations to address major factors and links were also put forward. Overall, more communications between the pair of stakeholder groups and continuous learning from project experiences are believed to be the main strategies.Originality/valueIt is believed that this study has provided a comprehensive understanding of causal mechanisms among factors, which can assist project managers of different parties (clients, contractors and consulting firms) in taking more effective actions to ameliorate the quality of design documents.

PurposePharmaceutical donations are a practical approach to increase medicine availability during disasters such as disease outbreaks. However, often donated pharmaceuticals are inappropriate and unsuitable. This convergence of inappropriate pharmaceuticals is a severe operational challenge and results in environmental hazards. This study explores the pharmaceutical supply chains (PSCs) during a disease outbreak to relieve the negative impact of the material convergence problem (MCP).Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts a situation-actors-process learning-action-performance (SAP-LAP) linkage framework to understand the PSC dynamics. The problem-solving component of the SAP-LAP analysis provides the strategies catering to MCP. The findings from the SAP-LAP helped to develop the causal loop diagram (CLD). This study conducts several experiments on the proposed strategies by integrating CLD into a stock and flow diagram. Later, a disease outbreak case study accessed the pharmaceutical donations effect on PSC performance.FindingsThe study synthesises and evaluates propositions and strategies to incorporate circular economy (CE) principles in PSC. This study proposed two strategies; one to sort and supply and the other to sort, supply and resell. The reuse policy improves humanitarian organisations' finances in the simulation study. This study verified the operational improvement of PSC by reducing the transport and storage burden due to MCP.Originality/valueThis study comprehensively approaches the issue of drug donation and uniquely produced several propositions for incorporating a CE perspective in PSC. The study also proposed a unique simulation approach to model the donation arrivals in response to a disease outbreak using susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered modelling.

Purpose Increasingly adopted by various governments for infrastructure development, public-private partnerships (PPPs) have become a popular procurement delivery system, outperforming other systems. However, PPPs have been especially criticised due to the lack of sustainability aspect during the development and implementation of the projects. In India, similar critiques have been raised, as these qualities have inhibited the development of society and increased the time and cost overrun in the development of PPP projects. This paper, therefore, aims to address the sustainability issues in PPPs and systematically analyses from the perspective of the principles of sustainable development. Design/methodology/approach Based on literature review and focussed interviews with stakeholders in India, a qualitative system dynamics (SD) model using causal loop diagramming is developed to propose the inclusion of various strategies in the PPP procurement process, which can enhance the sustainability of the PPP process. Finally, the integration of these strategies in the current PPP procurement process has been highlighted in the form of the introduction of new mechanisms and policies and modification of the existing mechanism and procurement policies. Findings The paper first highlights key sustainability issues in the PPP procurement process and suggests 34 strategies to address the issues. The modelling approaches and the proposed strategies, along with their interrelationships, could help the PPP decision makers in implementing responsive policies in bringing sustainable development in the PPP procurement process. Research limitations/implications The SD model developed is based on limited data, primarily focussed on PPP procurement practices in the context of infrastructure development in India. Developing the model with the analysis of a wider range of data and constructing a customised model can take broader perspectives into account. Social implications Adoption of the identified strategies can facilitate the inclusion of sustainability practices in the development of infrastructure projects, which are even procured using private finance. Originality/value Studies on how to promote sustainable infrastructure development when procured through the PPP route are in the nascent stage. This study, therefore, extends the current body of knowledge on infrastructure projects implementation through PPPs from financial engineering and risk management to a sustainability perspective.

PurposeSystem dynamics (SD) is emerging as a powerful approach to understand, analyse, simulate and predict complex and dynamic business processes. In particular, it is true in the process of business model innovation (BMI) and not only as a computational approach. Due to the visual and diagrammatic tools employed by SD, innovation managers overcome humans' mental limitations and improve knowledge management in the BMI. This paper discloses the value of SD's visual tools, i.e. causal loop diagrams and stock and flow diagrams, to contribute to the “Knowldege Visualization” research line, and promote the application of SD as a powerful approach to support decisions in BMI.Design/methodology/approachGiven the explorative nature and the “how” question driving the research, the methodology involved is a single, holistic case study. In particular, the case is about a business model (BM) diversification, in which an information and communication technology service provider has added to its existing business model a new BM based on a digital multi-sided platform, for passengers transportation.FindingsThe diagrammatic tools of SD, that is causal loop diagrams and stock and flow diagrams, allowed entrepreneurs to overcome the complexity of the business parameters concurring in the design of the BM.Originality/valueThe value of this research is in the exploratory approach and in the originality of the perspective by which SD is analysed: the visual knowledge perspective.

Purpose Poor quality of design documents and Design Deficiencies (DDs) are critical factors that can potentially cause time and cost overrun and lead to project failure. Despite the importance of this issue, few studies have been conducted to explore the underlying relations among the causes and effects of DDs, and it is not clear how they exert influence on each other. However, it is imperative to have a clear understanding of their interrelationships so as to devise intervention strategies. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to explore these causes and effects. Design/methodology/approach To this aim, a qualitative system dynamics model was provided to visualize how various factors interact with one another. The model was developed and validated by drawing on the expertise of industry-related experts. The key causes and effects of the DDs were identified through the investigation of the model. Findings It was concluded that design management of project and the composition of design teams are critical. The obtained results also showed that more attention should be paid to the enhancement of knowledge circulation and communication within design firms and increasing the awareness of managers and owners from the technical consequences of their managerial decisions. Research limitations/implications It is worth mentioning that the design process could be deeply affected by the quality, frequency and strength of relationships among the project’s parties. Early involvement of contractors, for example, can significantly contribute to enhancing design quality. This study investigates factors’ interactions in projects delivered using the traditional design-bid-build method. As relationships between the project’s parties could be different in various project delivery methods, further research is indeed needed to assess factors’ interactions in projects delivered using other methods. Originality/value It is believed that the proposed model by providing a better insight into the connections of causes and effects could aid project managers of different parties with planning the strategies to reduce DDs and mitigate their effects.

Purpose Empirical evidence suggests that many triggers influence poor cost performance in highway projects, whereas previous studies about the cost overrun triggers stem from a positivist standpoint supported by conventional statistical techniques, thus disregarding the sophisticated interactions and overall dynamics of the triggers. This study contends for a paradigm shift in investigating and understanding cost overrun triggers by adopting a holistic perspective through the lens of system thinking. This study aims to contend for a paradigm shift in investigating and understanding cost overrun triggers by adopting a holistic perspective through the lens of system thinking. Design/methodology/approach Semi-structured interviews with industry stakeholders in Nigeria were conducted buttressed by textual data from literature sources and project documents. Data analysis based on a developed data compatible coding framework and causal relations from textual data sources was used to develop a causal loop diagram depicting the interactions of the triggers which were validated by experts. Findings The analysis of the causal loop diagrams (CLDs) allowed identification of action points used to suggest changes for improved cost-effective highway project delivery. Among the suggested interventions are ensuring the provision of adequate funding prior to contract award will result in timely delivery of projects and indeed delivering key projects at the contractual agreed budget. This can be achieved through ensuring strict adherence to the provisions of Section 4 (2) (b) of the Nigerian Public Procurement Act, 2007 which stipulates that no contract should be awarded if funds are not available from the onset. Research limitations/implications The study was limited to only highway infrastructure projects in Nigeria and as such caution must be taken before using the outcome of the study to other context within Nigeria and beyond. Practical implications From a practical point of view, the causal model demonstrates that this study is capable of being used to make pragmatic decisions regarding policy leverages about improving cost performance in highway projects provision in the Nigerian highway infrastructure sector of the construction industry. Moreover, it will aid a clear understanding of the key influencing triggers of cost overrun by the relevant stakeholders within the highway sector of the industry. Originality/value The hybrid-based approach applied in the development of CLDs in this study is expected to provide new insight into understanding the linkages, interactions, feedbacks and processes among the key cost overrun triggers and suggesting leverages for cost performance improvement within the philosophy of system thinking.

PurposeThe challenges facing the productivity of Nigeria's refineries have generated much academic discourse. This study was carried out to develop a causal loop model showing the interrelationships of the multiple factors driving the poor performance of the refineries. Using a framework of political, economic, social and technical (PEST) factors, the developed model helped identify leverage points for policy intervention in the system.Design/methodology/approachA mixed-method approach was adopted to collect quantitative data from 118 refinery workers and qualitative data from 14 participants polled from the various Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) subsidiaries. The quantitative data were analysed through structural equation modelling (SEM) to prioritise the more significant factors, while the qualitative data were analysed by content analysis to further validate the questionnaire findings and provide clearer contexts for the operationalisation of the factors.FindingsThe structural equation model identified several PEST factors such as government interference, political indecision, funding issues, spare parts costs, pipeline vandalism, oil theft, maintenance issues as some of the significant factors affecting the performance of the refineries. The interviews validated these findings and provided richer contexts on how these factors operate within system. A causal loop model was developed based on these findings to identify key leverage points upon which policy intervention through best practice, management autonomy and stakeholder satisfaction was proposed to address these challenges.Research limitations/implicationsThe study uncovers that the factors which affect the performance of the refineries have significant multiple interrelationships, the understanding of which is crucial for developing effective solutions by policymakers.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study lay important foundations for a deeper understanding of how PEST factors interact to drive suboptimal performance across NNPC refineries.Originality/valueThe causal loop model developed in this study provides a new approach to viewing and analysing the associated factors affecting the performance of Nigeria's refineries from a non-linear perspective.

Purpose It is significant to assess the societal trust toward the new advancements in multi-hazard early warnings (MHEW) with the focus on disaster risk reduction (DRR). Based on this, the purpose of this paper is to examine the extent of societal trust behavior along with the parameters such as mode of communication and institutions of issuing early warnings (EWs). Design/methodology/approach A field questionnaire survey was conducted to identify the extent of societal trust. This was conducted in ten selected Grama Niladari divisions in Sri Lanka based on a developed hazard matrix. The fuzzy logic approach was applied to examine the trust level of collected 323 responses obtained through this. The analysis was done based on the responses on mobile-based platforms in EW and the credibility level of the warnings received through different institutions. Findings The analyzed survey responses indicated that society has a higher extent of trust toward the EWs disseminated through mobile-based platforms. Moreover, these represent a strong positive correlation among the societal trust level and the level of importance of EW dissemination through mobile-based platforms. Further, in terms of trusted stakeholders in issuing EW alerts, Disaster Management Center, Sri Lanka Police and Media ranked the highest in the Sri Lankan context. Overall, findings were visually mapped through the causal loop diagrams (CLDs). Practical implications In enhancing the effectiveness of the existing MHEW mechanism, the policy implications could be done, based on the results obtained from this research study. These could be altered with the implementation of DRR strategies with a community focus. Originality/value The fuzzy logic approach was used in the determination of the societal decision-making on the extent of trust level. Fuzzy triangulation is mainly applied in the interpretation of the results. Further, overall parameters that determine the community trust on MHEW are represented through CLDs through system dynamics application.

PurposeThis study aims to describe the compounding factors in a complex emergency, which exacerbate a cholera epidemic among vulnerable populations due to supply chain disruptions. Basic needs such as food, medicine, water, sanitation and hygiene commodities are critical to reduce the incidence rate of cholera and control the spread of infection. Conflicts cause damage to infrastructure, displace vulnerable populations and restrict the flow of goods from both commercial and humanitarian organizations. This study assesses the underlying internal and external factors that either aggravate or mitigate the risk of a cholera outbreak in such settings, using Yemen as a case study.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts a system dynamics methodology to analyze factors that influence cholera outbreaks in the context of the Yemeni Civil War. A causal loop diagram with multiple components was constructed to represent the complexities of humanitarian situations that require critical decision-making. The model was built using data from humanitarian organizations, non-governmental organizations and practitioners, along with literature from academic sources. Variables in the model were confirmed through semi-structured interviews with a field expert.FindingsCompounding factors that influenced the cholera outbreak in Yemen are visualized in a causal loop diagram, which can improve the understanding of relationships where numerous uncertainties exist. A strong link exists between humanitarian response and the level of infrastructure development in a country. Supply chains are affected by constraints deriving from the Yemeni conflict, further inhibiting the use of infrastructure, which limits access to basic goods and services. Aligning long-term development objectives with short-term humanitarian response efforts can create more flexible modes of assistance to prevent and control future outbreaks.Research limitations/implicationsThe model focuses on the qualitative aspects of system dynamics to visualize the logistics and supply chain-related constraints that impact cholera prevention, treatment and control through humanitarian interventions. The resulting causal loop diagram is bounded by the Yemen context; thus, an extension of the model adapted for other contexts is recommended for further study.Practical implicationsThis study presents a systematic view of dynamic factors existing in complex emergencies that have cause-and-effect relationships. Several models of cholera outbreaks have been used in previous studies, primarily focusing on the modes and mechanisms of transmission throughout a population. However, such models typically do not include other internal and external factors that influence the population and context at the site of an outbreak. This model incorporates those factors from a logistics perspective to address the distribution of in-kind goods and cash and voucher assistance.Social implicationsThis study has been aligned with six of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), using their associated targets in the model as variables that influence the cholera incidence rate. Recognizing that the SDGs are interlinked, as are the dynamic factors in complex humanitarian emergencies, the authors have chosen to take an interdisciplinary approach to consider social, economic and environmental factors that may be impacted by this research.Originality/valueThis paper provides an insight into the underlying inter-relations of internal and external factors present in the context of a cholera outbreak in a complex crisis. Supply chains for food; water, sanitation and hygiene; and health products are crucial to help prevent, control and treat an outbreak. The model exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain, which may offer guidance for decision makers to improve resilience, reduce disruptions and decrease the severity of cholera outbreaks.

Purpose This paper aims to identify those factors, which will improve the collaboration between industrialised housebuilding (IHB) companies and their subcontractors within continuous improvement (CI) programmes. These factors will enhance the supply chain (SC) efficiency and productivity, eliminating obstacles when designing, implementing and managing CI programmes within IHB SC. Design/methodology/approach An explorative case study with a mixed-method approach was conducted within an IHB SC. To collect data, participant observation and guided interviews were applied. A stakeholder analysis was conducted to structure their guiding principles. A causal loop diagram (CLD) analysis was used to model the effects on and relationships within a SC and their impact on the involvement of subcontractors. Findings The influences on the stakeholders and the guidelines under which they work are defined. Potential conflicts of interest between stakeholders are identified. A CLD is used to model a better understanding of system behaviour impacting on the relationships within the SC and on subcontractor involvement. The results provide a number of factors that need to be considered when designing, implementing and managing a CI programme. Research limitations/implications The research suggests better ways to use subcontractors’ specific knowledge of on-site processes such that productivity and efficiency are enhanced. Improvements within the construction supply chain (CSC) will, in the future, not be limited to small improvement gains at company level. Originality/value This paper extends the body of knowledge in CSC management by revealing factors important for designing, implementing and managing CI programmes, which enables the successful involvement of subcontractors in CI on SC level.

PurposeThe more contemporary views on managing projects recommend stakeholder engagement as an important part of the process. Challenges have been reported when attempting to involve project stakeholders in a construction project due to the complexity of the processes. In projects such as refurbishment projects, the efforts to incorporate end users' needs and preferences into spatial environmental functions increase the complexity of stakeholder engagement during the journey of the project. This paper presents a unique technique used to integrate different tools within the system enquiry methodology in modelling the project stakeholder engagement process for refurbishment projects.Design/methodology/approachAiming to address the problem, system dynamics (SD) has been selected as the most suitable method for modelling the dynamic behaviour of this complex system over time. A tool known as a rich picture diagram (RPD) is proposed as the precursor of the development of a causal loop diagram (CLD) to facilitate a more holistic abstraction for applicable solutions. An example of a single case study involving the refurbishment of a higher education building project is presented to explain the analysis undertaken in the process of developing the CLD that models the dynamic behaviour within end-user stakeholder engagement.FindingsThis paper demonstrates the complementarity capabilities of the soft and hard systems of enquiry in modelling stakeholder's dynamics within the refurbishment construction contexts. The RPD soft system tool was found useful to congregate diverse stakeholder expressions and experiences of a complex system in a holistic manner. Subsequently, the development of the CLD was fully guided by the information and relationship captured and presented in the RPD to yield a representative system model. Furthermore, this paper also reports the dynamics of the actors, situations, events and their inter-relationship found in the presented refurbishment project.Originality/valueThis paper enriches the techniques within the system enquiry methodology by integrating hard and soft system tools for dynamic process modelling purposes. This is particularly achieved by utilizing the RPD as the precursor of SD that provides a useful way for researchers and stakeholders to fully understand the dynamics and develop robust systemic interventions to optimize end-user stakeholder engagement during the journey of refurbishment projects, particularly of higher education buildings.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to apply a systems thinking methodology to analyse Indonesia’s new and renewable energy (NRE) electricity sector to describe the complex interrelations between its actors and variables, identify the systemic patterns and formulate recommendations for the policymakers. Design/methodology/approach Systems thinking methodology is used to observe the NRE electricity system and compile the corresponding data into a meaningful diagram to describe and recommend solutions for the sector’s issues. Causal loop diagram is used as the main method in this study with a deeper analysis of system archetypes to uncover the system behaviour. Soft system methodology and critical system heuristic are used partially to clarify the system boundaries, cultivate the perspective of the involved actors and problem categorization. Findings A comprehensive diagram is developed to present interrelation between all the components within the NRE electricity sector in Indonesia and the expected impact of any act or change to the entire system. Based on the causal interrelations between variables, typical systemic patterns or archetypes are used to identify unproductive patterns towards achieving the NRE electricity sector objectives. Originality/value The findings provide an initial outlook on the variables and systemic patterns within the system as a critical consideration in the decision-making process and policy development for the NRE electricity sector.

PurposeThis paper investigates the policy changes made towards infrastructure public–private partnerships (PPPs). The purpose of this study is to empirically identify the policy risks associated with the development of PPPs and to assess their impacts on the projects.Design/methodology/approachA case study of the policy changes that have been implemented for PPPs in China over the past seven years has been undertaken and is presented in this study. The causal loop diagrams are applied to assess and illustrate the potential impacts of the risks as a result of such changes on PPPs.FindingsA sequence of the policy risks, which relate to PPP risk allocation, contract management and implementation, payment and abatement mechanisms and financing, has been identified. It is also found that the identified risks will generate significant but negative impacts on PPPs, leading to an ineffective project delivery, low revenue, poor service quality and even contract breach.Practical implicationsThis research provides the private-sector entities that will embark on PPPs with an insight into managing and controlling policy risks over the project's lifecycle.Originality/valuePPPs have been critical for infrastructure development worldwide. Nevertheless, they have been a controversy, as many of them were subjected to poor outputs. Consequently, a variety of political mechanisms has been implemented to enhance the governance for PPPs. Policy can bring not only benefits but also risks and, however, policy risks of PPPs with a particular assessment for their potential impacts have received limited attention. Therefore, the study presented in this paper will contribute to the identification and assessment of policy risks within the context of PPPs.

Purpose Research on sustainability has progressed from a singular focus on one aspect to a simultaneous focus on more than one aspect of the triple bottom line. However, there is a dearth of research that explains why sustainability-related decisions in business often do not bear the expected results. Research that provides managers with a tool to achieve environmental sustainability of logistics without compromising the economic sustainability is scarce. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to bridge the above gaps and to explore the factors that affect investment in technology to balance environmental and economic sustainability of logistics. A model based on system dynamics approach explains the simultaneous interplay of these factors. Simulating the model helps the managers of logistics function decide the size of investment in technology, to achieve environmental efficiency without negatively influencing the economic performance. Design/methodology/approach A model based on system dynamics approach explains the simultaneous interplay of these factors. Simulating the model helps the managers of logistics function decide the size of investment in technology, to achieve ecological efficiency without compromising with the economic performance. Findings Collaboration with regulatory authorities and with players within the same industry and across industries is a must so that eco-logistics does not become an economic burden for businesses. The decision to invest in technology for eco-logistics is further accentuated if the technology promises some added economic benefits. Research limitations/implications From a theoretical perspective, the research has added to the less extensive literature on system dynamics modelling, which is a mixed methodology, combining both qualitative and quantitative techniques. The research is also one of the few attempts that have attempted to simultaneously study more than one aspects of sustainability in business, quantitatively through simulation. Simulation was demonstrated through a single case study, Future works can aim to apply the causal loop diagram to firms in varied sectors. Practical implications The managers can use the causal loop diagram to assess the environmental performance of logistics and decide on appropriate level of investment to balance ecological and economic performance of logistics. Originality/value The causal loop diagram has been developed through primary data collection via semi-structured interviews. The results were validated by presenting them to respondents to ensure they represent their view points. The results are, therefore, practical and original. This research does not build upon an existing data set or aims to test the applicability of any existing model. The model for this research has been developed from the grass-roots level.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the humanitarian service management categories that influence long-term transformation within complex community-based service ecosystems. Design/methodology/approach This study utilizes mixed methods to present a dynamic model that provides insight into the complexities of supplying, distributing and transporting charitable resources to underserved communities. The interdisciplinary study draws on the theory of service-dominant logic and service science, presents critical elements of transformative service research and uses system dynamics approach to propose a visual causal loop model. Findings This study develops a dynamic model for studying humanitarian service and value propositions in underserved communities. This paper combines the extant literature to emphasize key humanitarian service categories that influence, and are influenced by, service exchanges within community-based contexts. Research limitations/implications This paper is limited in providing quantitative methods in analyzing the case study data. However, the research is still helpful in providing acumen via the causal loop diagram to specifically look into each variable and see their cause and effect relationships in the community-based ecosystem. The research represents an opportunity to model the humanitarian aid and relief scenarios to help make more effective decision-making interventions. Practical implications The model serves as a managerial tool to determine critical services that optimize resource utilization within the community-based service ecosystems. Insights from this research are broadly applicable to the contexts of humanitarian logistics and supply chain management (HLSCM) solutions for community-based ventures. Originality/value This paper conceptualizes how the management of service-for-service exchanges, logistics services and charitable donation management provides transformational humanitarian services and value propositions within underserved communities. This study further provides fundamental contributions by addressing research gaps in the HLSCM domain by supporting service research and the community-based context.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate critical barriers hindering the adoption of green supply chain management (GSCM) and the opportunities that can be exploited with such an implementation in the construction industry of developing countries. It also devises strategies to avoid critical barriers in implementation and exploit opportunities for a better overall environmental performance of the construction industry. Design/methodology/approach This research relies upon an extensive literature review; data are collected from 163 professionals and 15 interviews of field professionals from 11 developing countries are conducted. The barriers and opportunities are synthesized through literature review and then data are collected over their significance from the construction professionals through an online survey. To highlight the interconnectedness of the critical barriers and opportunities, a causal loop framework is developed. Furthermore, expert opinion is sought to develop the strategies. Findings This research integrates information from different sources and provides a holistic view of the current situation of GSCM in developing countries. In total, 34 barriers and 23 opportunities are extracted from literature. The top 4 barriers fall under the “involvement and support” category, whereas the top four opportunities fall under the “environmental” category. Furthermore, the strategies to implement GSCM include suitable policies by top management to incorporate practices such as innovative green design, green procurement, green packaging, green distribution and even end-of-life management, which play a vital role in emission reduction. Originality/value This research is a first attempt at evaluating the barriers and opportunities facing GSCM in the construction sector of the developing countries. The findings encourage the stakeholders in adopting GSCM practices by presenting a clear picture of the potential benefits that can be exploited by implementing the proposed strategies to eliminate critical barriers in the construction industry.

Purpose Cloud computing (CC) services have given a tremendous boost to the creation of efficient and effective solutions. With developing countries at a slow pace of adoption, this research aims to identify factors and their interrelationships influencing the adoption of CC in a developing country context. The developing countries are enjoying numerous benefits from CC services; however, its low adoption is still a question in developing economies; hence, the authors have selected the context of information and communication technology (ICT) firms in India. Design/methodology/approach The qualitative research method is used where experts from thirteen ICT firms in India are interviewed. Findings Sixteen factors, twenty-eight subfactors, and 25 interrelationships are revealed through content analysis. Further, causal loop diagrams are proposed to display the behavior of cause and effect of these factors from a system's perspective. This will help to understand the relationships among the factors in order to enhance the speed of CC adoption. Possible financial loss and resistance to change are found as the key barriers to adoption. The proposed interrelationships can guide both policymakers and service providers for designing effective CC policies. Originality/value This is the first scholarly work that identifies interrelationships among factors and subfactors, thereby providing a holistic picture to decision-makers while making a choice on whether to adopt cloud services or continue with on premise data centers and servers.

Purpose To improve robustness of a dairy supply chain (SC) against corruption, the purpose of this paper is to propose a systemic model of a corruption impacted dairy SC, exposing relationships among SC operations, risks and the impact of corruption. Design/methodology/approach Cases from the dairy industry in New Zealand (NZ) are used for thematic analysis of interview data collected from participants at senior levels of NZ dairy firms. Based on these and other inputs from literature, a systemic model is built subsequently. Findings Mitigating certain risks can significantly alleviate the impact of corruption, an external factor, on supply chain performance (SCP). The causal loop diagram (CLD) developed here brings out the modifying effect of corruption on dairy risks and SCP. Practical implications The illustration of the CLD helps business managers better understand the interactions among risk variables and explains the systemic reasons for SC vulnerability. Originality/value This is the first paper to construct a holistic system to comprehensively reveal the interactions of supply chain risks (SCRs) and the impact of corruption. Also, by utilizing SCR interactions, this study indicates a pathway to mitigate the negative effects of corruption through improving dairy SC robustness.

Purpose This paper aims to model different causal relations among factors interacting with labour productivity in order to recognize the most important factors influencing and influenced by it. Design/methodology/approach Top 60 factors affecting labour productivity were determined and grouped into 5 major groups by reviewing previous research and interviewing relevant experts. The interactions of factors were modelled using system dynamics (SD) approach. The resulting causal loop diagrams obtained from SD were then applied for identifying the most crucial factors influencing and influenced by labour productivity through the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. The impact of factors on each other was finally determined based on the opinions of 63 experts selected from the Iranian construction industry. Findings The results indicated that factors such as fatigue, lack of labour motivation and lack of skill are the most influencing, and factors such as schedule delay and inflation in the cost of execution are the most influenced by labour productivity. In the end, a set of recommendations to improve construction labour productivity was also presented. Originality/value The main contribution of the study is proposing a novel method which is capable of providing insights into how causes and effects of construction labour productivity are interrelated. Furthermore, the proposed method makes this study distinct from previous research in the light of prioritizing factors and offering recommendations according to the interrelationships among factors.

Purpose The international community recognizes the role of entrepreneurship education in fostering economic growth and sustainable development. However, preparing the next generation of entrepreneurs is not an easy task, since today’s complexity requires the creation of skills and capabilities for which the traditional programs reveal their inadequacy. Some scholars remark how entrepreneurship education and entrepreneurial intention are not necessarily related and, in line with policy makers’ concerns, call for educational programs more routed in financial skills’ enhancement. The purpose of this paper is to explore the potential of system dynamics (SD) for entrepreneurial education, investigating the relationships between financial and entrepreneurial skills’ formation and business development. Design/methodology/approach The paper introduces the main elements of SD, describes literature streams of SD applications fitting the entrepreneurial education spheres and proposes an SD’ insight model based on selected literature and declined in terms of stock-and-flow and causal loop structures. Findings The study provides a causal model capturing the links between the processes of entrepreneurial skill formation and firms’ start-ups and closures. Such model introduces a double effect of financial literacy on entrepreneurial orientation and locates the contribution of simulated entrepreneurial decisions in formal and informal educational contexts. Originality/value The paper displays how SD can contribute to entrepreneurship and presents an original causal model highlighting the accumulation of financial and non-financial skills through education and experience, their impact on business development and the usefulness of SD methodology for skill achievement.

Purpose This research aims to examine the smelter industry’s investment competitiveness in Indonesia as well as to find solutions to improve its competitive advantage for the nation. Design/methodology/approach This research applies a sequential mixed-methods approach with a second quantitative phase building on an initial first qualitative phase. The qualitative phase is conducted by interviews to find the root causes of problems as well as solutions to gain smelter industries’ competitiveness. The quantitative phase is conducted by a system dynamics model. A descriptive causal loop diagram is created based on interviews and focus group discussions to describe the problems. The concept of competitive advantage of a nation from Porter’s diamond model is applied in this research. Findings The results reveal the complexity of smelter industries in Indonesia. The paper also addresses the causes of problems and interaction of variables using a causal loop diagram. To gain the smelter industry’s competitiveness, this paper suggests the potential policy development to increase competitiveness of the smelter industry such as policy for different fiscal incentives to each different mineral, effective export duty and exploration obligation. Practical implications The result of this study provides a good basis for government in making policy to improve the competitive advantage of the smelter industry investment in Indonesia. Originality/value This is the first research on smelter industry competitiveness that applies Porter’s diamond model and system dynamics model to find solutions in designing appropriate policy to gain competitiveness.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present a capability maturity model (CMM) developed to implement continuous improvement in small and medium scale construction companies (SMSCC) in Nigeria.Design/methodology/approachA multi-strategy approach involving qualitative studies of SMSCC in Nigeria was conducted. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with purposively selected construction experts in Nigeria to identify variables essential for continuous improvement in SMSCC. Data collected were thematically analysed using NVIVO. Subsequently, a system thinking approach is employed to design and develop the CMM for implementing continuous improvement SMSCC, by exploring possible relationships between the variables established.FindingsCMM provided a five-level approach for the inclusion of investigated variables such as team performance; culture; structure; post-project reviews, financial risk management, waste management policy and cost control. These variables are factors leading to continuous improvement in SMSCC, implementable within a six to seven and a half years’ timeline.Practical implicationsThe system thinking model revealed cogent archetypes in the form of reinforcing loops that can be applied in developing the performance of SMSCC. Continuous improvement is feasible. However, it takes time to implement. Further longitudinal studies on the cost of implementing continuous improvement through CMM a knowledge transfer project can be initiated.Originality/valueA methodical strategy for enhancing the effectiveness and operations of SMSCC in developing countries can be extracted from the causal loop diagram and the CMM.

Purpose Systemic risks affect financial market participants in many ways. However, the literature insists firmly that they are and, in fact, should be of little concern to (private) banks (as opposed to regulators). The purpose of this paper is to argue for the relevance of systemic risks for private banks as opposed to regulators only by making use of causal loop models as being traditionally used in the discipline of systems dynamics. In contrast to the starting point for all common risk-management frameworks in banks, which is the classification of risks into risk categories, the authors show that risk has been compartmentalized too much and provide a strong case for a really holistic approach. Design/methodology/approach Systems thinking, causal loop models and conceptual approach. Findings Relevance of systemic risks for private banks as opposed to regulators only. In contrast to the starting point for all common risk-management frameworks in banks, which is the classification of risks into risk categories, the authors show that risk has been compartmentalized too much and provide a strong case for a really holistic approach, which stems from using explanatory models such as causal loop diagrams. On top of that more explanatory models ought to be used for risk management purposes while banks currently rely too much on statistical-descriptive approaches. Originality/value Integration of systems thinking into risk management, which is novel: in contrast to the starting point for all common risk-management frameworks in banks, which is the classification of risks into risk categories, the authors show that risk has been compartmentalized too much and provide a strong case for a really holistic approach.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the crowd stampede risk mechanism from the perspective of systems thinking. Design/methodology/approach Causal loop diagram is drawn to outline the non-linear interactions among complex factors across the whole system and dissect the contributory factors of crowd stampede accident. To systematically construct the theoretical framework and find fundamental solutions, co-word analysis with Citespace is used to get the critical data. An agent-based simulation using Pathfinder is conducted to develop a spatial model for the Shanghai Stampede Accident that happened in 2014. Findings The causal loop diagram is formed to not only illustrate the symptomatic solutions with a quick fix but also dissect the fundamental solutions through an underlying systemic analysis. The simulation shows that crowd stampede experiences an interactive process of accumulation, trigger, delay, break and diffusion of risk factors within the crowd system. A linkage effect among the multidimensional characters of individuals and the system accelerates the stampede risk deterioration. There exists delay of the result of effect from the deep-level measure. Practical implications A top-down approach is offered to policymakers for crowd stampede risk protocol design and synergic emergency control that may reduce the risk of the stampede. Originality/value In this study, SDFT paradigm is proposed as the critical solution for the crowd stampede accident. In addition, a chain effect of energy and a linkage effect within the crowd system is illustrated for in-depth understanding of crowd stampede risk.

PurposeThe study aims to summarise the literature on cancer care pathways at the diagnostic and treatment phases. The objectives are to find factors influencing the delivery of cancer care pathways; to highlight any interrelating factors; to find gaps in the literature concerning areas of research; to summarise the strategies and recommendations implemented in the studies.Design/methodology/approachThe study used a qualitative approach and developed a causal loop diagram to summarise the current literature on cancer care pathways, from screening and diagnosis to treatment. A total of 46 papers was finally included in the analysis, which highlights the recurring themes in the literature.FindingsThe study highlights the myriad areas of research applied to cancer care pathways. Factors influencing the delivery of cancer care pathways were classified into different albeit interrelated themes. These include access barriers to care, hospital emergency admissions, fast track diagnostics, delay in diagnosis, waiting time to treatment and strategies to increase system efficiency.Originality/valueAs far as the authors know, this is the first study to present a visual representation of the complex relationship between factors influencing the delivery of cancer care pathways.

PurposeContinual cost reduction of overhead costs of building projects can realign the concept of post-contract cost control towards value-driven construction projects and stakeholders’ satisfaction. This study synthesised and analysed the viable continuous improvement measures critical for waste reduction during the execution phase of a building project.Design/methodology/approachA review of existing literature facilitated a list of continuous improvement measures. This literature review findings enabled a Likert-scale questionnaire which was administered to two-hundred and fifty (250) small- and medium-scale construction companies (SMSCC) in Nigeria. Multiple linear regression statistical tests deduced the significant cost reduction measure from which a causal loop diagram was designed to indicate continuous improvement measures during the execution phase of a building project.FindingsCogent construction activities associated with overhead costs were deduced from the statistical tests as being payment of suppliers and sub-contractors and purchase orders. An all-inclusive casual loop model for cost reduction through waste minimisation in construction projects as a viable oriented mechanism for meeting clients' requirements was developed.Practical implicationsThe causal loop continuous improvement model recognised external and internal factors which are crucial for SMSCC to focus on for their organisational growth and performance enhancement.Originality/valueA focus on non-physical waste in construction organisations potentially addresses behavioural challenges for continuous improvement.

Purpose Hyperconnectivity and supercooperation among partners within the mobile value chain are crucial factors for sustainable growth of the mobile ecosystem. This study aims to identify the complex structure of hyperconnectivity and supercooperation underlying revenue sharing practices and the actions and reactions of Chinese mobile video triads. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the causal loop diagram and system dynamics simulation to demonstrate the feedback causal structure wherein the revenue sharing (RS) rule adjustments trigger interactions among participants (e.g., MNOs, SPs and CPs) in mobile video service triads, leading to fluctuations in the number of mobile video users and total revenue in the mobile video value chain. Findings Change of RS rules among value chain participants is an incentive for achieving the sustainability of the mobile ecosystem, as examined using a system dynamics (SD) simulation. However, from the perspective of a tri-partite mobile value chain, the “accidental adversary” system archetype caused by adjustment of RS rules has an unintended negative impact on counterparts in the mobile ecosystem value chain. Originality/value This study analyzes a complex feedback causal structure based on structural interdependencies among growth, limiting and relaxing loops in the Chinese mobile video ecosystem. The result of SD simulation suggests strategic alternatives such as the “growth and underinvestment” systems archetype to overcome “limits to growth”. Moreover, this study explores the accidental adversary archetype in complex and complicated mobile service triads as an impediment to achieving sustainability of the mobile ecosystem.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the complexities involved in implementing continuous improvement (CI) initiatives in public sector organisations. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on a case study of a private sector organisation based in New Zealand and its efforts in implementing CI activities in its public sector clients. In total, 12 semi-structured interviews were followed by group model building exercises based on system dynamics that led to the development of a systems model. Findings CI initiatives using public-private partnerships were successful in steadily improving the operational excellence and end-user satisfaction in this case. But client satisfaction was only increasing at a much slower rate. The underlying structure responsible for this behaviour was captured using a causal loop model and explained using seven interacting feedback loops. Research limitations/implications The major limitation of this research is that it is confined to one private sector organisation and its public sector clients. Thus, the generalisability cannot be utilised for future reference. Practical implications This paper illustrates the development of strategic initiatives based on a participative model building approach. It provides a practical method for initiating long-term structural changes while managing CI activities in public sector organisations. Originality/value This paper contributes a New Zealand case of public-private partnerships for implementing CI initiatives. It illustrates a systems approach to analyse the complexities involved in implementing CI initiatives in public sector organisations.

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to define the best deployment alternatives for a public protection and disaster relief (PPDR) mobile network service – the implementation alternatives being either a dedicated network, a commercial network or a hybrid of the two network types. The selection criteria are based on the social benefits that the PPDR mobile service is expected to bring to society. The critical parameters are population density and service availability, which both directly relate to the socioeconomic benefits achieved by providing broadband (BB) mobile services in various demographic areas. Design/methodology/approach A causal loop model has been developed to define the socioeconomic benefits of the PPDR network, the parameters being population density, service availability, socioeconomic value of the service and the costs of the network. The network solution alternatives are studied using the Finnish PPDR network as a reference – analysing various areas of the country with differing population densities from remote, rural and more densely populated suburban and urban areas. Findings Socioeconomic value is a common measure for assessing the value of governmental investments; population density has a strong impact on the optimum deployment alternatives as the socioeconomic value is directly proportional to this variable. The flat nationwide fee of the mobile users means that the users are subsidised in sparsely populated areas – and overcharged in densely populated areas. This is the main reason why the commercial network seems to be most feasible in rural areas, whereas the dedicated network works best in urban areas. Based on the case study, the commercial network is most preferable up to the point when the population density reaches 50-125 persons/km2. After that point, the dedicated network becomes more appropriate. Proposals are being made to improve the availability of the commercial networks enabling them to serve as a PPDR network: ensuring priority functionality and a protected power supply; allowing PPDR subscribers the exclusive use of one of the 700 MHz spectrum bands in restricted, critical areas; and extending use of the existing narrowband PPDR network in areas where communication availability is crucial. Originality/value On the one hand, the financing of BB PPDR mobile networks is an unresolved issue in many countries. On the other hand, the ability of commercial BB networks to provide better quality of service is improving, making viable the alternative to subscribe for radio service from a commercial operator. Therefore, the feasibility study on how to provide an optimum mobile BB service for PPDR organisations is of real value at this time.

Purpose The intervention of many different organizations during the post-disaster housing reconstructions could also influence the sustainability of the overall socio-ecology of the affected areas. Different approaches in design, selection of building materials and construction technologies deployed in pursuit of disaster resiliency may cause undesirable adverse circumstances to the surroundings, which escalate its susceptibility to future calamities. Therefore, this paper aims to identify relevant key indicators which interpret construction sustainability in a post-disaster housing reconstruction context, and to further investigate the dynamic interactions of these indicators on the socio-ecological system to achieve holistic sustainable post-disaster housing reconstructions. Design/methodology/approach Methodology was divided into three main stages. The first stage involved content analysis of related research materials, whereas the second stage was allocated for empirical data collection from case study and interview sessions. Data obtained from the first and second stage were then used to develop a causal loop diagram in the third stage to identify dynamic interrelationships between the indicators and the variables within a post-disaster reconstruction system. Findings From our results, the nexus of sustainability and disaster resilience is apparent and it is imperative to comprehend their dynamic interactions. The impacts of post-disaster reconstructions on the socio-ecological system are significant. Therefore, the adaptation of integrated sustainable construction approach in the housing reconstruction practice through system thinking will foster a holistic approach in the decision-making process and could reduce environmental damage. This also strengthens the interrelated socio-ecological systems, thus reinforcing disaster resilience in the built environment. Originality/value This research looks into the adaptation of integrated sustainable construction approach in the housing reconstruction practice through systems thinking approach. This will foster a holistic approach in the decision-making process and could reduce environmental damage. This also strengthens the interrelated socio-ecological systems, thus reinforcing disaster resilience in the built environment. This paper also looks into identifying relevant key indicators that interpret construction sustainability, which incorporate environmental, social and economic factors pertaining to the context of post-disaster housing reconstruction in Kuala Krai, Kelantan. The dynamic interrelationships and causal impacts between the indicators with other variables within the system were also established.

Purpose The causal relationships between factors related to building information modelling (BIM) adoption in the Thai architectural and engineering design industry are presented. A model is proposed to explain and forecast the adoption behaviours in the industry. This paper aims to define and compare policies for the adoption of BIM using a company case study. Design/methodology/approach The system dynamics (SD) approach was used. Four companies were selected as case studies for formulating a causal loop diagram. One of the companies was chosen for collecting the quantitative data for the SD model simulation during a ten-month study period. Tests of model validation were conducted for confirmation of, and confidence in, the model. Findings An SD model was formulated for studying BIM adoption. Four policies of BIM adoption were defined to compare with the normal operating business for the company and used as the case study. The quantitative outputs of the SD model revealed that BIM training was the best choice to optimise company performance. Research limitations/implications The case studies comprised architectural and engineering design companies in Thailand; therefore, the findings may not be generalisable to other Thai construction organisations or to other countries. Practical implications The methodology and findings can be used as guidelines for other organisations or countries that are considering BIM adoption to improve their operations. Originality/value The paper highlights the optimum policy for BIM adoption to achieve efficient and effective implementation.

Purpose This research paper expects to discover the causal relationships between hedonic value and certain factors by using the concept of system dynamics, which is a process-oriented method that can deal with a large number of variables and a higher-order non-linear system. Thus, this research paper’s purposes are to explore the degree of customer delight on re-patronizing intention, investigate the importance of word-of-mouth (WOM) on re-patronizing intention of new customers and discover the gap between service recovery and customer expectation. Design/methodology/approach This research aims to propose a holistic framework to investigate the factors influencing patronizing and re-patronizing intention by utilizing system dynamics. System dynamics uses simulation to investigate the complex economic system in the society; furthermore, it deals with the decision-making problem. The features of system dynamics include non-linearity, information feedback, time delay and dynamic complexity. Findings The result showed that customer hedonic value is a major influence. The authors discovered that customer delight, WOM, service recovery and re-patronizing intention are interrelated. The analysis shows hedonic value indirectly influenced customer delight during service experiential process. The result also indicated that a high hedonic value influenced WOM efficiently. Originality/value This research aims to understand customer hedonic experience and the important factors that influence service experience. The authors used the concept of system dynamics to analyze the proposed model. A causal loop diagram was used to present the relationships among variables. The results reveal that hedonic value is the most critical factor that influences all the other factors. Customers who experience more hedonic value will accelerate the speed of delivery and amount of WOM. The service experience processes of customer delight, WOM and service recovery will affect the customers’ hedonic value and ultimately affect customers’ re-patronizing intention.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the leverage points in the Vietnamese coffee supply chain (SC) that would be used for increasing competitive advantages of the product. Design/methodology/approach A sequential approach by combining two established modelling techniques (causal loop diagram and Bayesian belief networks) was applied to identify the leverage points in the Vietnamese coffee SC for increasing the competitive advantages of the product. Data for the study were collected from a series of workshops and in-depth interviews with numerous relevant stakeholders of the coffee industry in the central highland of Vietnam. Findings The systems’ archetypes were developed and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify potential factors that can increase the competitive advantages of coffee production. The results indicate that higher investment in all elements of the coffee SC will lead to an enhanced competitive advantage. Originality/value Supply chain management (SCM) has become a potentially valuable method for improving competitive advantages, as competition is no longer only between organizations but also among SCs. Therefore, this research focus on enhancing the competitive advantages of production via SCM.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how public health and systems science methods can be combined to examine the structure and behavior of Afghanistan’s routine childhood immunization system to identify the pathways through which health system readiness to deliver vaccination services may extend beyond immunization outcomes. Design/methodology/approach Using findings from an ecological study of Afghanistan’s immunization system and a literature review on immunization program delivery, the routine immunization system was mapped using causal loop diagrams. Next, a stock-and-flow diagram was developed and translated to a system dynamics (SD) model for a system-confirmatory exercise. Data are from annual health facility assessments and two cross-sectional household surveys. SD model results were compared with measured readiness and service outcomes to confirm system structure. Findings Readiness and demand-side components were associated with improved immunization coverage. The routine immunization system was mapped using four interlinking readiness subsystems. In the SD model, health worker capacity and demand-side factors significantly affected maternal health service coverage. System readiness components affected their future measures mostly negatively, which may indicate that the reinforcing feedback drives current system-structured behavior. Originality/value The models developed herein are useful to explore the potential impact of candidate interventions on service outcomes. This paper documents the process through which public health and systems investigators can collaboratively develop models that represent the feedback-driven behavior of health systems. Such models allow for more realistically addressing health policy and systems-level research questions.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for complex interconnected structure of various factors interacting with delay in order to identify the most important factors influencing and influenced by delay based on their interrelations. Design/methodology/approach Reviewing literature and interviewing with local experts selected from the Iranian construction industry, top 58 delay factors were identified and categorized into six major groups. The interrelations among these factors were, then, modeled using the system dynamics (SD) approach. The resulting causal loop diagrams obtained from SD were used subsequently for identifying the most significant factors influencing and influenced by delay through the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. The impact of factors on each other was finally determined based on the opinions of 63 experts selected from the Iranian community of consultants, contractors, and clients. Findings According to the analysis, eight out of the 58 factors were identified as the most influencing factors on delay, and nine factors were found to be the most influenced factors by delay in the field of delay analysis. The study also concluded that factors related to labors are the most important and influential factors. In addition, factors related to client were the most influencing factors and external-related factors were the least important ones. At the end, some recommendations to reduce variation of delay in the construction projects are presented as well. Originality/value Considering the interconnected structure of the factors, the paper identifies the most important factors interacting with time delay in construction projects.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a new model for studying the patron’s satisfaction level over time for library systems. For this purpose, it is necessary to identify the key factors that are influential in nature. Thereafter, this paper explains and shows the procedure used for developing the causal loop diagram, the flow diagram, mathematical modelling and the simulation of the problem. A sample problem is used to show the applicability of the proposed model. Because the proposed methodology allows management to look into the patrons’ satisfaction level over time, it makes a significant contribution to the literature of the library and information management, as well as dynamic simulation modelling. Design/methodology/approach This paper is written based on the studies and observations from scientific journals and reports. For model development purposes, the author has used the concept of systems thinking and systems dynamics to model the complex systems and simulate that using Vensim computer simulation software. Findings As the trend of patron’s satisfaction shows, it is possible to improve the satisfaction level over time to a level above 60 per cent from 48 per cent over the simulation running periods. Meanwhile, the level of donation is up from 10 to 40 per cent in the same period as the satisfaction level has been studied. Because this is the first paper that looks into such important variables over time using systems dynamics, it makes significant contribution to the field of library and information management. Originality/value In almost all library models for patron’s satisfaction calculation, the proposed models are static and can find this value for a point of time rather than over a long period of time. In this paper, a system with an initial value of patron’s satisfaction level was used, and by taking all key factors into consideration, the author has developed a system that calculates patron’s satisfaction trend over time. Also, the proposed dynamic model is able to determine the level of donations that patrons can make to the library over time.

Purpose This study aims to seek to advance a system dynamics-discrete event hybrid simulation modelling concept useful for taking improvement decisions where one needs to consider the interactions between human factors and process flow elements in lean manufacturing systems. Design/methodology/approach A unique approach is taken to hybrid simulation modelling where the whole problem situation is first conceptualized using a causal loop diagram and stock and flow diagram, before transmitting to a hybrid simulation model. The concept is intended to simplify the simulation modelling process and make the concept pliable for use in various types of lean manufacturing problem situations. Findings The hybrid simulation modelling concept was applied to a lean manufacturing case where quality performance was sporadic mainly because of production pressures. The hybrid modelling concept revealed a solution that advanced full compliance with lean and one that required changes in job scheduling policies to promote both continuous improvement and throughput increases. Research limitations/implications Because non-tangible aspects of lean were objectively assessed using the hybrid modelling concept, the study is an advancement towards establishing a credible link between human resource aspects of lean and the performance of an organization. Practical implications The applied hybrid model enabled managers in the plant navigate the trade-off decision they often face when choosing to advance production output ahead of continuous improvement practices. Originality/value System dynamics-discrete event hybrid simulation modelling is a rarity in lean manufacturing systems.

Purpose This paper aims to provide a preliminary systemic portrayal of risk relationships in the context of critical infrastructures (CIs) during disasters and assess the adequacy of the Hyogo Framework in addressing such relationships and the resultant cascading effects. Design/methodology/approach Using a systems thinking approach, this study views CIs as complex systems operating in the context of broader societies and disaster conditions. Using a causal loop diagramming technique, relationships across a large number of variables are mapped to capture pathways for cascading effects across CIs. This theoretical understanding is supplemented by cascading effects seen during the 2011 Japanese disaster. The Hyogo Framework indicators are mapped both to causal variables and disaster events to identify gaps. Data on cascading effects were collected from journals, news articles and reports by governments and NGOs. Findings The Hyogo Framework does not address facilitation by the host country of international aid during disasters; identification of infrastructure interdependencies and prioritization planning for recovery operations; national risk assessments that account for interrelated disasters; and private sector’s need to understand CIs’ dependencies and establish robust continuity plans that account for potential infrastructure failures. Originality/value This paper is the first attempt to assess the Hyogo Framework’s potential in addressing risk relationships and cascading effects. The knowledge provided in the paper is derived from the synthesis of previous cascading effects’ literature and examination of a real-life disaster. Findings are applicable to any disaster risk reduction initiative that seeks to anticipate and mitigate risk relationships and their implications for CIs during disasters.

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to provide researchers with a better understanding of the cultural impact on information processing in virtual learning environment. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses a causal loop diagram to depict the cultural impact on information processing in the virtual human resource development (VHRD) learning platform. This study takes a theoretical approach and examines current literature pertaining to VHRDs, virtual worlds (VWs), system dynamics, causal loop diagrams (CLDs) and cross-cultural studies. Findings – This study provides a conceptual model to describe and discuss the cultural impact on information processing in VHRD. Research limitations/implications – Literature has begun to reflect the concerns with cultural impact in VHRD; however, research is still in the beginning stages. This study proposes a conceptual model of information processing that includes the cultural impact. Future work based on this study will continue to test and improve the conceptual model. Practical implications – The conceptual model accounts for the complexities of the interaction between internal and external information processing systems. Instructional designers or educators can apply this conceptual model to understand the impact of culture on information process during training programs in the VHRD environment. With this model, they could provide an effective or efficient training programs for their trainees. Social implications – The conceptual model adopts a systemic viewpoint to describe the cultural impact on VHRD. For future studies, researchers could adopt this conceptual model to further illustrate the association between understanding information processing and recognizing the cultural impact on information processing. Originality/value – This study provided a framework for HRD researchers and practitioners to detect challenges and opportunities to work with cultural impact on information processing in VHRD. Instructional designers or educators could utilize this model to understand the process, and further offer an effective or efficient training programs for their trainees.

Purpose – Interventions to support gender equality in organisations are often unsuccessful. Stakeholders disagree about the causes and problem definition of gender equality or pay lip service to the principle of gender equality, but fail to implement gender equality in practice. The purpose of this paper is to examine participatory modelling as an intervention method to support stakeholders in: reaching a shared problem definition and analysis of gender inequality; and identifying and implementing policies to tackle gender inequality. Design/methodology/approach – The authors apply participatory modelling in case studies on impediments to women’s careers in two Dutch universities. Findings – This study shows that participatory modelling supported stakeholders’ identification of the self-reinforcing feedback processes of masculinity of norms, visibility of women and networking of women and the interrelatedness between these processes. Causal loop diagrams visualise how the feedback processes are interrelated and can stabilise or reinforce themselves. Moreover, they allow for the identification of possible interventions. Research limitations/implications – Further testing of the causal loop diagrams by quantifying the stocks and the flows would validate the feedback processes and the estimated effects of possible interventions. Practical implications – The integration of the knowledge of researchers and stakeholders in a causal loop diagram supported learning about the issue of gender inequality, hereby contributing to transformative change on gender equality. Originality/value – The originality of the paper lies in the application of participatory modelling in interventions to support gender equality.

Purpose – This paper aims to discuss a model for diffusion of innovation among the professionals of primary health-care centers in Finland. The authors answer partially to one of the important questions of the policymakers titled “How primary health-care centers can move toward systems that continuously improve their innovation?”. Design/methodology/approach – A systematic-qualitative framework based on an action research is presented to assess dynamics of diffusion of innovation in the primary health-care centers in Finland. Findings – The authors conceptualize the innovation systems of primary health-care systems by three different diagrams: subsystem diagram, policy structure diagram and causal loop diagram. The investigation reviews innovation process of Finnish professionals (staffs, nurses and doctors) in the frame of a systematic-qualitative analysis. The relationships and consequences of decisions and policies are discussed with a new way of thinking in the health-care sector studies. Originality/value – The implemented systematic-qualitative research in this article is an innovative approach in the innovation studies of the health-care systems.

Purpose – This paper aims to analyse whether and how the Development Plan and Policies of Slovenian Tourism (SiPlan) could be improved systematically and systemically, enabling more comprehensive management of innovation. Design/methodology/approach – The data were obtained within a comprehensive national innovation study. Data analysis was performed in four phases. In the initial phase, a link between the innovation project and SiPlan was established. In the next phase, which of the innovation factors are significantly correlated with the tourism destination development concept was identified. In the third phase, further policy potential for improving the innovation factors was identified. In the last phase, a systems approach was applied to develop a qualitative systems model, a causal loop diagram, taking into consideration the empirically identified strengths and weaknesses of the current SiPlan and other pertinent factors. Findings – The results of empirical research indicate that SiPlan represents a valuable, but not optimum development model of Slovene tourism development. Therefore, the authors propose a qualitative tourism development model based on the research results and a systems dynamics methodology. Originality/value – The work is important from the scientific point of view, i.e. as a methodology and research results that could be applied in further research activities. In addition, the results could be usefully used by policy makers by way of focusing on the most influential factors: policies that have a potential for the systems (holistic) and socially responsible development of tourism in Slovenia.

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to present a system dynamic model for studying the interconnections between human weight and health problems which cause various problems throughout life.Design/methodology/approachThe paper reviews key points about system thinking, its theories, and system dynamics. Models in the form of causal loops presenting the interconnections between weight factor and health problems are developed and discussed. Thereafter, a flow model of the problem is constructed and deaths caused by heart attack are studied under two situations of regular and taught cases. The paper identifies key health problems related to weight by using causal loops that demonstrate the whole picture of the situation.FindingsWith the aid of systems thinking and dynamic modeling researchers can study the impacts of weight on the generation of various health problems such as heart disease, high blood pressure, blood sugar, knee problems and more. This study shows that teaching people about their health will have a significant impact on the number of deaths related to heart attack.Practical implicationsWith the model proposed here various studies can be carried out that relates weight to health issues. A sample situation is presented where deaths related to heart attack are simulated.Originality/valueThis article makes a significant contribution to the health study issues due to the fact that it shows how a factor such as weight can impact on hearth attacks, blood pressure, and blood sugar, to mention a few. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study that relates weight to health problems using systems thinking concepts and system dynamic and it therefore make a significant contribution to the health literature.

PurposeThe collapse of the sub‐prime mortgage market parallels several earlier failures within the financial services sector, begging the question why the lessons of past failures were not learned. Throughout history from the tulip bulb crisis of the 1600s to the most recent economic crisis, decision‐makers keep making the same mistakes. This occurs in part because of a failure to recognize similarities between past and current events. This conceptual paper aims to use systems dynamics tools to examine the crisis and illustrate how seemingly independent events are linked.Design/methodology/approachThe paper provides a fundamental review of systems thinking concepts and uses a tool of systems dynamics, causal loop diagrams (CLD), to provide a visualization of the dynamics of the sub‐prime market collapse over time. This approach provides insights that traditional analytic methods do not, which should be beneficial in understanding future cases where speculative demand drives behavior.FindingsThe paper uses the CLD tool to understand the evolution of the recent financial crisis. It finds that the dynamics of the collapse closely mirror many historic financial disasters (the paper cites several) and proposes the fundamental CLD of this phenomenon be elevated to a special category of the “limits to growth” archetype model. The paper makes this recommendation in the hope it will allow investors and policy makers to quickly recognize future speculative events when they happen again.Originality/valueThis paper argues that, despite the surface level uniqueness and complexity of the recent economic collapse, there is an underlying simplicity that links the recent collapse with speculative boom/busts going back over 400 years. The representation that the paper develops applies the language of systems thinking to the most recent financial crisis. A mental model of this system and the corresponding systems structure can be used to not only understand what happened, but also inform decision‐makers when similar speculative behavior occurs in the future.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of the effects of fuel efficiency improvements on four‐wheeler ownership, fuel consumption, fuel imports and emissions for personal transportation in the context of India. The paper also aims to measure the rebound effect induced by this policy.Design/methodology/approachThe paper relies on a system dynamics model to analyse the problem. A causal loop model was developed initially, which was transformed to a stock and flow diagram. Simulation was carried out to capture the effects of fuel efficiency improvements in the four‐wheeler sector of India.FindingsThe study has revealed that a policy of fuel efficiency improvements is favourable to the Indian four‐wheeler sector growth, but this policy could result in an increase in fuel consumption and therefore a corresponding increase in the fuel imports and emissions in the country. This policy also induces direct rebound effect that adds up to the already alarming fuel consumption levels.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is limited to four‐wheeler passenger cars in India and gasoline as the transport fuel.Originality/valueThe paper offers a system dynamics model that can aid the government, vehicle manufacturers, and environment protection groups to further analyse policies regarding fuel efficiency improvements, fuel price adjustments, four‐wheeler ownership, energy consumption and emission, and to obtain some useful policy insights before those policies are implemented.

Purpose – The aim of this article is to propose a model to study the expenses of an RFID‐based library system. For this purpose risk‐benefit factors using causal loop concepts are studied and identified. Then, a flow diagram is developed and the mathematical formulation of the proposed model is presented and used for simulation purposes.Design/methodology/approach – This paper is written based on research and observations from scientific journals and reports. For this purpose key elements of risks and benefits of radio frequency identification in library services are identified. For model development purposes the concepts of systems thinking and system dynamics are employed. The systems thinking perspective is used as a tool to relate key factors of risks and benefits, and system dynamics are used to simulate the model of the problem.Findings – Systems thinking can provide an efficient way to analyze the risks, benefits, and the risk‐benefit phenomena of systems. The use of system dynamics allows us to lo...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to employ a system dynamics approach to develop a mathematical model for managing magnitude and risk factors of injuries in a manufacturing industry. This is to provide the decision makers with a systemic‐strategy to capture the transition of industries, especially manufacturing, into world‐class safe workplaces.Design/methodology/approach – An accident investigation register was administered to capture needed data to estimate the model parameters and identify risk factors of injuries. The principle of system dynamics (SD) was employed to identify the relevant safety‐related components and their interrelationships. Applying the concept of causality analysis, causal loop and SD flow diagrams indicating how prevention activities may eliminate hazardous conditions were delineated and a mathematical model to predict the main variables involved in manufacturing safety programme was formulated.Findings – The validity of the model was demonstrated using the observed data fr...

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present a model for a comprehensive and integrated approach to managing interface conflict from the early stages of a dam construction project.Design/methodology/approachA case study methodology is adopted. Following comprehensive literature review, qualitative data were gathered from case studies through interviews conducted on the Middle Marsyangdi Hydroelectric Project (MMHEP) dam project in Nepal. Causal loop diagrams on the typical evolution of key indicators of interface conflict were then developed and a simulate‐able model of interface conflict was derived using system dynamic modeling technique. The model was then simulated to derive viable policies for future management of dam construction projects in developing countries.FindingsThe study reveals that interface conflicts at the construction stage of projects are caused mainly by lack of effective Environmental Impact Assessment, public participation and mutual consultation, on timely basis and accurate information from the early stages of projects. The system dynamic model is able to replicate general behavior of evolution of interface conflict in a dam construction project. Furthermore, the study explored three viable policies to avoid and minimize interface conflict in the construction stage of a dam project. The policies were tested and demonstrated to be useful in improving the value of projects to stakeholders. It is demonstrated that a combination of policies is better than adopting a single policy to stakeholder management.Originality/valueThe paper demonstrates the utility of system dynamics as a modeling tool for understanding the dynamics of conflicts on dam construction projects. The model should be helpful to policy makers on large projects, especially those likely to be subject to social and environmental conflict. Policies derived from the model have the potential of being used to assess and take proactive measures to manage conflicts effectively and efficiently from early in a project's life.