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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to attempt to analyze the situation and trend of China's energy consumption structure and predict it. Design/methodology/approach – Starting from the situation of China's energy consumption structure, a quadratic programming model is created to analyze the trend of it. A homogeneous Markov chain is chosen to predict China's energy consumption structure with the data collected from China's Statistical Yearbook. Finally, the implication of the prediction is explained. Findings – The results are convincing: the substitution of different energies are found, China will not enter the oil era, natural gas and non-fossil energy will rapidly develop. Practical implications – The results of this article can provide an important basis for the government to make a non-fossil energy development plan and energy policies. Originality/value – The paper succeeds in revealing and predicting China's energy consumption structure by quadratic programming and homogeneous Markov chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]