Search

Objective: Background incidence rates are routinely used in safety studies to evaluate an association of an exposure and outcome. Systematic research on sensitivity of rates to the choice of the study parameters is lacking. Materials and Methods: We used 12 data sources to systematically examine the influence of age, race, sex, database, time-at-risk, season and year, prior observation and clean window on incidence rates using 15 adverse events of special interest for COVID-19 vaccines as an example. For binary comparisons we calculated incidence rate ratios and performed random-effect meta-analysis. Results: We observed a wide variation of background rates that goes well beyond age and database effects previously observed. While rates vary up to a factor of 1,000 across age groups, even after adjusting for age and sex, the study showed residual bias due to the other parameters. Rates were highly influenced by the choice of anchoring (e.g., health visit, vaccination, or arbitrary date) for the time-at-risk start. Anchoring on a healthcare encounter yielded higher incidence comparing to a random date, especially for short time-at-risk. Incidence rates were highly influenced by the choice of the database (varying by up to a factor of 100), clean window choice and time-at-risk duration, and less so by secular or seasonal trends. Conclusion: Comparing background to observed rates requires appropriate adjustment and careful time-at-risk start and duration choice. Results should be interpreted in the context of study parameter choices.

In the mid-1980s, there was a rise in incidence rates of childhood brain tumors (CBT) in the United States that appeared to stabilize at a higher rate in the early 1990 s. An updated analysis of the pattern of CBT over the past 2 decades, with commentary on whether the elevated incidence rate has continued, is past due. We used Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data to examine trends in incidence of CBT from 1973 through 2009. We examined age-adjusted incidence rates (AAIRs) and secular trends for all malignant brain tumors combined (SEER classification) by histologic tumor type and anatomic site. The incidence of CBT remained stable from 1987 to 2009 [annual percent change (APC) = 0.10; 95 % confidence intervals (CI) -0.39 to 0.61] with an AAIR for all CBT of 3.32 (95 % CI 3.22-3.42). The stability of rates in these two decades contrast the change that occurred in the mid-1980s (1983-1986), when the incidence of CBT increased by 53 % (APC = 14.06; 95 % CI 4.05-25.0). From 1983 to 1986, statistically significant rate increases were observed for pilocytic astrocytoma, PNET/medulloblastoma, and mixed glioma. Further, the rate of increase in pilocytic astrocytoma was similar to the rate of decrease for astrocytomas NOS from 1981 to 2009, suggesting a change from a more general to more specific classification. After the increase in rates in the mid-1980s, rates of CBT over the past two decades have stabilized. Changes in incidence rates of subtypes of tumors over this time period reflect changes both in classification of CBT and in diagnostic techniques.

BackgroundThe racial/ethnic disparities in prostate cancer rates are well documented, with the highest incidence and mortality rates observed among African-Americans followed by non-Hispanic Whites, Hispanics, and Asian/Pacific Islanders. Whether socioeconomic status (SES) can account for these differences in risk has been investigated in previous studies, but with conflicting results. Furthermore, previous studies have focused primarily on the differences between African-Americans and non-Hispanic Whites, and little is known for Hispanics and Asian/Pacific Islanders.ObjectiveTo further investigate the relationship between SES and prostate cancer among African-Americans, non-Hispanic Whites, Hispanics, and Asian/Pacific Islanders, we conducted a large population-based cross-sectional study of 98,484 incident prostate cancer cases and 8,997 prostate cancer deaths from California.MethodsData were abstracted from the California Cancer Registry, a population-based surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) registry. Each prostate cancer case and death was assigned a multidimensional neighborhood-SES index using the 2000 US Census data. SES quintile-specific prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates and rate ratios were estimated using SEER*Stat for each race/ethnicity categorized into 10-year age groups.ResultsFor prostate cancer incidence, we observed higher levels of SES to be significantly associated with increased risk of disease [SES Q1 vs. Q5: relative risk (RR) = 1.28; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25-1.30]. Among younger men (45-64 years), African-Americans had the highest incidence rates followed by non-Hispanic Whites, Hispanics, and Asian/Pacific Islanders for all SES levels. Yet, among older men (75-84 years) Hispanics, following African-Americans, displayed the second highest incidence rates of prostate cancer. For prostate cancer deaths, higher levels of SES were associated with lower mortality rates of prostate cancer deaths (SES Q1 vs. Q5: RR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.92-0.94). African-Americans had a twofold to fivefold increased risk of prostate cancer deaths in comparison to non-Hispanic Whites across all levels of SES.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that SES alone cannot account for the greater burden of prostate cancer among African-American men. In addition, incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer display different age and racial/ethnic patterns across gradients of SES.

The aim of the study was to determine age- and race-related, and overall incidence rates of insulin-requiring diabetes in adults in the US military.Electronic records for admissions to US military and Tricare hospitals during 1990–2005 and visits to military clinics during 2000–2005 were identified using the Career History Archival Medical and Personnel System at the Naval Health Research Center, San Diego, CA, USA. Population data were obtained from the Defense Manpower Data Center and Defense Medical Epidemiology Database.In men there were 2,918 new cases of insulin-requiring diabetes in 20,427,038 person-years at ages 18–44 years (median age 28 years) for a total age-adjusted incidence rate of 17.5 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 16.4–18.6). Incidence rates were twice as high in black men as in white men (31.5 vs 14.5 per 100,000, p

ObjectiveTo estimate age-specific incidence rates of AD in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA).BackgroundThe BLSA is a volunteer cohort of normal subjects followed longitudinally with biennial evaluations at the Gerontology Research Center of the National Institute on Aging.MethodsSubjects are 1236 participants (802 men, 434 women) in the BLSA with longitudinal follow-up between January 1985 and May 1998. The average length of follow-up was 7.5 years, with participants evaluated every 2 years by physical, neurologic, and neuropsychological examinations. Using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 3rd ed., revised and National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke-Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria, the authors diagnosed dementia and AD.ResultsThe authors diagnosed 155 cases of dementia, of which 114 (74%) were AD. Incidence rates of AD increased with age from an estimated 0.08% per year (95% CI 0.00 to 0.43) in the 60 to 65 age group to an estimated 6.48% per year (95% CI 5.01 to 8.38) in the 85+ age group for men and women combined. The doubling time of incidence rates was estimated to be approximately 4.4 years and the median time of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to diagnosis of AD was estimated to be 4.4 years. There was a trend for women to have higher incidence rates than men and for fewer years of education to be associated with higher incidence rates; however, these effects were not significant.ConclusionIncidence rates for AD in the BLSA are consistent with published rates in other studies. The longitudinally followed subjects of the BLSA offer a unique opportunity to prospectively investigate the antecedents of AD.