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Recent studies have shown that spring land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) over the high elevation areas in the western US (WUS) have significant impacts on the downstream summer droughts/floods in North America. In this paper, both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction—Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) general circulation model (GCM) and the weather research and forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) are employed, where RCM scenarios utilized initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the corresponding NCEP-GFS scenarios. Here we use a late spring flood in the US Southern Great Plains (SGP) case to examine whether simulation of the LST/SUBT downstream effects is sensitive to the domain size choice, change in dynamical cores within the same model, as well as to the representation of surface processes parameterizations. Although all RCM experiments with different settings simulate reasonably geographical patterns of observed LST and precipitation anomalies, we found that the choice of the domain size is crucial for proper downscaling the LST/SUBT downstream effects to accurately produce the observed precipitation/LST anomalies over the SGP/WUS, respectively, along with the associated large-scale features. The southern boundary location has been identified to be crucial in producing the SGP Low Level Jet strength, which in turn brings more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to the SGP and thereby resulting in a better simulation of the precipitation anomaly in that area. The sensitivity of the simulation of the LST/SUBT downstream effect to dynamical cores is assessed by inter-comparing the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and the Advanced Research WRF dynamic cores. We find NMM was better at generating the large-scale eastward wave train, a crucial process associated with the LST/SUBT downstream effect. Meanwhile, this study also shows that the LST/SUBT downstream effects were not significantly dependent on the surface process parameterizations, although the Simplified Simple Biosphere model version 3 (SSiB3) highlighted a better performance over SSiB2.

This paper evaluates multi-decadal simulations of the UCLA version of Climate Forecast System version 2, in which the default Noah land surface model has been replaced with the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version-2. To examine the influence of the atmosphere–ocean (AO) interaction on the variability, two different simulations were conducted: one with interactive ocean component, and the other constrained by the prescribed sea surface temperature. We evaluate the mean seasonal climatology of precipitation and temperature, along with the model’s ability to reproduce atmospheric variability at different scales over the globe, including extratropical modes of atmospheric variability, and long-term trends of global and hemispheric temperature and regional precipitation. Here, we particularly selected two monsoon regions, East Asia and West Africa, where the simulation of multi-decadal variations which has heretofore been a challenging task, to examine decadal variation of monsoon precipitation. In general, temperature anomaly trends were better captured than those of precipitation in both simulations. Results suggest that the AO interaction, represented as latent heat flux, contributes to improve reproducibility of global-wide climatology, extratropical modes of atmospheric variability, and variability in the multi-decadal climate simulation, as well as for inter-decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon.

The population of the Sahel region of West Africa has approximately doubled in the past 50 years, and could potentially double again by the middle of this century. This has led to the northward expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural savanna, leading to widespread land use -land cover change (LULCC). Because there is strong evidence of significant surface-atmosphere coupling in this region, one of the main goals of the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation project phase II is to provide basic understanding of LULCC on the regional climate, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the seasonal variability of the West African Monsoon to LULCC. The prescribed LULCC is based on the changes from 1950 through 1990, representing a maximum feasible degradation scenario in the past half century. It is applied to 5 state of the art global climate models (GCMs) over a 6-year simulation period. Multiple GCMs are used because the magnitude of the impact of LULCC depends on model-dependent coupling strength between the surface and the overlying atmosphere, the magnitude of the surface biophysical changes, and how the key processes linking the surface with the atmosphere are parameterized within a particular model framework. Land cover maps and surface parameters may vary widely among models; therefore a special effort was made to impose consistent biogeophysical responses of surface parameters to LULCC using a simple experimental setup. The prescribed LULCC corresponds to degraded vegetation conditions, which mainly cause increases in the Bowen ratio and decreases in the surface net radiation, and result in a significant reduction in surface evaporation (upwards of 1 mm day−1 over a large part of the Sahel). This, in turn, mainly leads to less moisture convergence and precipitation over the LULCC zone. The overall impact is a rainfall reduction with every model, which ranges across models from 4 to 25 % averaged over the Sahel, and a southward shift of the rainfall peak in three of the five models which evokes a precipitation dipole pattern which is consistent with the observed pattern for dry climate anomalies over this region. The African Easterly Jet shifts equator-ward, although the strength of this change varies considerably among the models. In most of the models, the main factor causing diabatic cooling of the upper troposphere and enhanced subsidence over the region of LULCC is the reduction of convective heating rates linked to reduced latent heat flux and moisture flux convergence. In broad agreement with previous studies, the impact of degradation on the regional climate is found to vary among the different models, however, the signal is stronger and more consistent between the models here than in previous inter-comparison projects. This is likely related to our emphasis on prioritizing a consistent impact of LULCC on the surface biophysical properties.

This study investigates the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS date of burning product was implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF-NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was imposed through lower ground albedo for a period after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground condition deterioration increased mean surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground, which in turn caused a decrease in monthly surface net radiation. On average, the wildfire-season albedo increase was approximately 6.3 % over the Sahel. The associated decrease in surface available energy caused a drop in surface sensible heat flux to the atmosphere during the dry months of winter and early spring, which gradually transitioned to a more substantial decrease in surface evapotranspiration in April and May that lessened throughout the rainy season. Overall, post-fire land condition deterioration resulted in a decrease in precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa, associated with the weakening of the West African monsoon progression through the region. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was observed in the burned area simulations, which played a dominant role in reducing precipitation in the area, especially in the months preceding the monsoon onset. The areas with the largest precipitation impact were those covered by savannas and rainforests, where annual precipitation decreased by 3.8 and 3.3 %, respectively. The resulting precipitation decrease and vegetation deterioration caused a drop in gross primary productivity in the region, which was strongest in late winter and early spring. This study suggests the cooling and drying of atmosphere induced by burned areas caused the strengthening of subsidence during pre-onset and weakening of upward atmospheric motion during onset and mature stages of the monsoon leading to a waning of convective instability and precipitation. Monthly mid-tropospheric vertical wind showed a strengthening of downward motion in winter and spring seasons, and weakening of upward movement during the rainy months. Furthermore, precipitation energy analysis revealed that most of precipitation decrease originated from convective events, which supports the hypothesis of reduced convective instability due to wildfires.

The climatic effects of dust aerosols in North Africa and South/East Asia have been investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model, NCEP/GCM/SSiB (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model) and the three-dimensional aerosol data simulated by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. GCM simulations show that due to the scattering and absorption of solar radiation by dust particles, surface temperature decreases over both regions, accompanied by a reduced sensible heat flux. However, precipitation responses are different in these two regions. Due to differences in dust location and the associated heating with respect to the rainfall band and circulation, the effect of dust could either enhance or suppress precipitation. Over the North Africa region where dust particles are mainly located to the north of rainfall band, heating of the air column by dust particles forces a stronger ascent motion over dust layers, which induces an anomalous subsidence (or a weakened upward motion) and suppressed cyclonic circulation to its south where precipitation reduces. Furthermore, both humidity and cloud decrease due to the heating in the middle troposphere (semi-direct effect). In South/East Asia, dust particles are located in the upper troposphere over the major rainfall band during the monsoon season, especially Southwest India and the coastal area of Bay of Bengal. Heating of the air column increases upward motion and strengthens cyclonic circulation. Humidity also increases due to the draw-in of the low level moist air. Therefore, cloud and precipitation increase over South/East Asia associated with dust effect. During the pre-monsoon season, when dust particles are located to the north of the monsoon rainfall band, the heating effect results in shifting precipitation northward. The heating of air column due to dust particles, not surface cooling, plays the major role in precipitation changes. The anomalous upward motion over dust regions will induce a subsidence to its south and subsequently reduce precipitation over that region. Therefore, the responses of circulation and precipitation to aerosol forcing depend on the relative location of dust aerosols with respect to rainfall band, which may explain the fact that contradictory results exist regarding whether the aerosol effect would enhance or suppress precipitation. The dust induced change in precipitation is actually more of redistribution rather than the simple action of increase or decrease.

Recurrent drought and associated heatwave episodes are important features of the US climate. Many studies have examined the connection between ocean surface temperature changes and conterminous US droughts. However, remote effects of large-scale land surface temperature variability, over shorter but still considerable distances, on US regional droughts have been largely ignored. The present study combines two types of evidence to address these effects: climate observations and model simulations. Our analysis of observational data shows that springtime land temperature in northwest US is significantly correlated with summer rainfall and surface temperature changes in the US Southern Plains and its adjacent areas. Our model simulations of the 2011 Southern Plains drought using a general circulation model and a regional climate model confirm the observed relationship between land temperature anomaly and drought, and suggest that the long-distance effect of land temperature changes in the northwest US on Southern Plains droughts is probably as large as the more familiar effects of ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability. We conclude that the cool 2011 springtime climate conditions in the northwest US increased the probability of summer drought and abnormal heat in the Southern Plains. The present study suggests a strong potential for more skillful intra-seasonal predictions of US Southern Plains droughts when such facts as ones presented here are considered.

© 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Two important factors that control snow albedo are snow grain growth and presence of light-absorbing impurities (aerosols) in snow. However, current regional climate models do not include such processes in a physically based manner in their land surface models. We improve snow albedo calculations in the Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) land surface model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM), by incorporating the physically based SNow ICe And Radiative (SNICAR) scheme. SNICAR simulates snow albedo evolution due to snow aging and presence of aerosols in snow. The land surface model is further modified to account for deposition, movement, and removal by meltwater of such impurities in the snowpack. This paper presents model development technique, validation with in situ observations, and preliminary results from RCM simulations investigating the impact of such impurities in snow on surface energy and water budgets. By including snow-aerosol interactions, the new land surface model is able to realistically simulate observed snow albedo, snow grain size, dust in snow, and surface water and energy balances in offline simulations for a location in western U.S. Preliminary results with the fully coupled RCM show that over western U.S., realistic aerosol deposition in snow induces a springtime average radiative forcing of 16W/m2 due to a 6% albedo reduction, a regional surface warming of 0.84°C, and a snowpack reduction of 11mm.

Land use and land cover (LULC) over Africa have changed substantially over the last 60 years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties of model simulated response in the African monsoon system and Sahel precipitation due to LULC change using a set of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature. The relationship between the model responses to LULC change and the climatologists of the control simulations is also examined. Simulations that are climatologically too dry or too wet compared to observations and reanalyses have weak response to land use change because they are in moisture or energy limited regimes respectively. The ones that lie in between have stronger response to the LULC changes, showing a more significant role in land–atmosphere interactions. Much of the change in precipitation is related to changes in circulation, particularly to the response of the intensity and latitudinal position of the African Easterly Jet, which varies with the changes in meridional surface temperature gradients. The study highlights the need for measurements of the surface fluxes across the meridional cross-section of the Sahel to evaluate models and thereby allowing human impacts such as land use change on the monsoon to be projected more realistically.

Regional climate models (RCMs) have been developed and extensively applied for dynamically downscaling coarse resolution information from different sources, such as general circulation models (GCMs) and reanalyses, for different purposes including past climate simulations and future climate projection. Thus far, the nature, the methods, and a number of crucial issues concerning the use of dynamic downscaling are still not well understood. The most important issue is whether, and if so, under what conditions dynamic downscaling is really capable of adding more information at different scales compared to the GCM or reanalysis that imposes lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) to the RCMs. There are controversies regarding the downscaling ability. In this review paper we present several factors that have consistently demonstrated strong impact on dynamic downscaling ability in intraseasonal and seasonal simulations/predictions and future projection. Those factors include setting of the RCM experiment (e.g. imposed LBC quality, domain size and position, LBC coupling, and horizontal resolution); as well as physical processes, mainly convective schemes and vegetation and soil processes that include initializations, vegetation specifications, and planetary boundary layer and surface coupling. These studies indicate that RCMs have downscaling ability in some aspects but only under certain conditions. Any significant weaknesses in one of these aspects would cause an RCM to lose its dynamic downscaling ability. This paper also briefly presents challenges faced in current RCM dynamic downscaling and future prospective, which cover the application of coupled ocean-atmosphere RCMs, ensemble applications, and future projections. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

This study explores the role of vegetation biophysical processes (VBPs) in the structure and evolution of the South American monsoon system (SAMS) with an emphasis on the precipitation field. T e approach is based on comparing ensemble simulations by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction general circulation model (GCM) in which the land surface parameterization in one ensemble includes an explicit representation of vegetation processes in the calculation of surface fluxes while the other does not [GCM/Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB) and GCM/Soil, respectively], but with similar monthly mean surface albedo and initial soil moisture. The ensembles consist of five pairs of 1-yr integrations differing in the initial conditions for the atmosphere. The results show that, during the austral summer, consideration of explicit vegetation processes does not alter the monthly mean precipitation at the planetary scale. However, at continental scales, GCM/SSiB produces a more successful simulation of SAMS than GCM/Soil. The improvement is particularly clear in reference to the seasonal southward displacement of precipitation during the onset of the SAMS and its northward merging with the intertropical convergence zone during the monsoon mature stage, as well as better monthly mean austral summer precipitation over the South American continent. The changes in surface water and energy balances and circulation in October (monsoon onset) and December (the start of the monsoon mature stage) were analyzed for a better understanding of the results and mechanisms involved. It was found that the major difference between the simulations is in the partitioning of latent heat and sensible heat fluxes (i.e., different Bowen ratio), which produced different latitudinal and longitudinal thermal gradients at the surface. A stronger sensible heat flux gradient between continent and ocean in the GCM/SSiB simulation helped generate an enhanced ventilation effect, which lowered moist static energy (MSE) over the northeast coast of South America leading to stronger counterclockwise turning of the low-level wind from the Atlantic Ocean toward the continent during the premonsoon and early monsoon stages, modifying moisture flux convergence (MFC). It was further identified that the seasonality of savanna and shrublands to the south and east of the Amazon rain forest contributed to the variability of heating gradients and influenced the SAMS onset and, its northward merge with the ITCZ at the early monsoon mature stage. The comparison of the differences between precipitation, evaporation, advection of MSE, and MFC based on simulations using two different land parameterizations suggested that the VBP modulated the surface water budget, but its impact on precipitation was determined by the changes in circulation via changes in heat gradient and MSE.