6 results on '"land use land cover change"'
Search Results
2. Predicting the impact of land management decisions on overland flow generation: Implications for cesium migration in forested Fukushima watersheds
- Author
-
Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R, Steefel, Carl I, Williams, Kenneth H, and Birkholzer, Jens T
- Subjects
Hydrology ,Engineering ,Earth Sciences ,Life on Land ,Land use land cover change ,Risk management ,Watershed hydrology ,Critical zone ,Erosion ,Fukushima Dai-ichi ,CESD-Clean Water ,Applied Mathematics ,Civil Engineering ,Environmental Engineering ,Civil engineering ,Applied mathematics - Abstract
The effects of land use and land cover (LULC) change on environmental systems across the land surface's “critical zone” are highly uncertain, often making prediction and risk management decision difficult. In a series of numerical experiments with an integrated hydrologic model, overland flow generation is quantified for both present day and forest thinning scenarios. A typhoon storm event in a watershed near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant is used as an example application in which the interplay between LULC change and overland flow generation is important given that sediment-bound radionuclides may cause secondary contamination via surface water transport. Results illustrate the nonlinearity of the integrated system spanning from the deep groundwater to the atmosphere, and provide quantitative tools when determining the tradeoffs of different risk-mitigation strategies.
- Published
- 2018
3. Predicting the impact of land management decisions on overland flow generation: Implications for cesium migration in forested Fukushima watersheds
- Author
-
Siirila-Woodburn, ER, Steefel, CI, Williams, KH, and Birkholzer, JT
- Subjects
Land use land cover change ,Risk management ,Watershed hydrology ,Critical zone ,Erosion ,Fukushima Dai-ichi ,Environmental Engineering ,Applied Mathematics ,Civil Engineering - Abstract
The effects of land use and land cover (LULC) change on environmental systems across the land surface's “critical zone” are highly uncertain, often making prediction and risk management decision difficult. In a series of numerical experiments with an integrated hydrologic model, overland flow generation is quantified for both present day and forest thinning scenarios. A typhoon storm event in a watershed near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant is used as an example application in which the interplay between LULC change and overland flow generation is important given that sediment-bound radionuclides may cause secondary contamination via surface water transport. Results illustrate the nonlinearity of the integrated system spanning from the deep groundwater to the atmosphere, and provide quantitative tools when determining the tradeoffs of different risk-mitigation strategies.
- Published
- 2018
4. The regional impact of Land-Use Land-cover Change (LULCC) over West Africa from an ensemble of global climate models under the auspices of the WAMME2 project
- Author
-
Boone, Aaron Anthony, Xue, Yongkang, De Sales, Fernando, Comer, Ruth E, Hagos, Samson, Mahanama, Sarith, Schiro, Kathleen, Song, Guoqiong, Wang, Guiling, Li, S, and Mechoso, Carlos R
- Subjects
Life on Land ,Climate Action ,African monsoon ,Land use land cover change ,Land degradation ,Climate simulations ,Land surface models ,Land-atmosphere coupling ,Atmospheric Sciences ,Oceanography ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences - Abstract
The population of the Sahel region of West Africa has approximately doubled in the past 50 years, and could potentially double again by the middle of this century. This has led to the northward expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural savanna, leading to widespread land use -land cover change (LULCC). Because there is strong evidence of significant surface-atmosphere coupling in this region, one of the main goals of the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation project phase II is to provide basic understanding of LULCC on the regional climate, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the seasonal variability of the West African Monsoon to LULCC. The prescribed LULCC is based on the changes from 1950 through 1990, representing a maximum feasible degradation scenario in the past half century. It is applied to 5 state of the art global climate models (GCMs) over a 6-year simulation period. Multiple GCMs are used because the magnitude of the impact of LULCC depends on model-dependent coupling strength between the surface and the overlying atmosphere, the magnitude of the surface biophysical changes, and how the key processes linking the surface with the atmosphere are parameterized within a particular model framework. Land cover maps and surface parameters may vary widely among models; therefore a special effort was made to impose consistent biogeophysical responses of surface parameters to LULCC using a simple experimental setup. The prescribed LULCC corresponds to degraded vegetation conditions, which mainly cause increases in the Bowen ratio and decreases in the surface net radiation, and result in a significant reduction in surface evaporation (upwards of 1 mm day−1 over a large part of the Sahel). This, in turn, mainly leads to less moisture convergence and precipitation over the LULCC zone. The overall impact is a rainfall reduction with every model, which ranges across models from 4 to 25 % averaged over the Sahel, and a southward shift of the rainfall peak in three of the five models which evokes a precipitation dipole pattern which is consistent with the observed pattern for dry climate anomalies over this region. The African Easterly Jet shifts equator-ward, although the strength of this change varies considerably among the models. In most of the models, the main factor causing diabatic cooling of the upper troposphere and enhanced subsidence over the region of LULCC is the reduction of convective heating rates linked to reduced latent heat flux and moisture flux convergence. In broad agreement with previous studies, the impact of degradation on the regional climate is found to vary among the different models, however, the signal is stronger and more consistent between the models here than in previous inter-comparison projects. This is likely related to our emphasis on prioritizing a consistent impact of LULCC on the surface biophysical properties.
- Published
- 2016
5. Modelling land use and land cover changes in California’s landscapes
- Author
-
Moanga, Diana Antoaneta
- Subjects
Environmental science ,Environmental management ,Environmental studies ,California ,Environment ,GIS ,Land system science ,Land use land cover change ,Land use modelling - Abstract
Land use land cover change (LULCC) patterns are constantly changing the Earth’s surface. Growing population numbers and an increased demand for housing, energy and food have not only expanded the human footprint into natural ecosystems but have also accelerated LULCC processes. Climate-driven land cover changes due to prolonged droughts and shifts in temperatures and precipitation patterns have also influenced the spatial configuration of land uses, and the distribution of ecological communities. Natural and anthropogenic forces along with their feedbacks and interdependencies are major drivers of global environmental change. Land use dynamics affect the distribution, composition, condition and vulnerability of ecosystems, influence soil properties and impact the livelihoods of people dependent on the productivity and health of the land and its natural resources. Given future climate uncertainties and increased resource demands, it is important to study land use change itself, understand the drivers behind land cover changes and assess the impacts of LULCC processes on socio-ecological systems. This dissertation investigates the causes and effects of land cover changes across various ecosystems in California, exploring the linkages between human activities and landscape changes. The first chapter provides a general overview of the framework that motivated my research, showcasing ways through which land system science as a field has improved our understanding of the world. The second chapter examines the role that land markets can play in conservation. Land conversion from natural vegetation to other uses such as development or agricultural uses is a dominant trend in California and results in habitat fragmentation, loss of natural ecosystems, loss of ecosystem services, and atmospheric carbon (C) emissions. To investigate the effects that conservation purchases have on C emissions and loss of vegetation, I analyze 73 conservation easements owned by the California State Coastal Conservancy (SCC). I develop counterfactual scenario simulations that show likely outcomes of land cover changes in the absence of conservation actions and calculate the benefits of protecting these lands in terms of avoided C emissions and avoided vegetation loss. I base my counterfactual scenario simulations on expert opinions gathered through property-specific appraisal reports provided by the SCC. I combine the information found in these reports with a comprehensive analysis of land cover changes in the vicinity of the areas studied to develop likely pathways of rural development and/or agricultural conversion. In this chapter I show that measuring the benefits of conservation purchases through the development of counterfactuals reveals that many of the properties purchased by the SCC did not experience a high risk of being converted to development and/or agricultural uses. A second important finding highlights that the location of the property and its vegetation significantly influence the likelihood of conversion and associated avoided carbon emissions. In particular high-carbon ecosystems, such as redwood forests, are less likely to become developed than lower-carbon ecosystems, such as grasslands. In my third chapter, I study one of the natural disturbances ingrained in the history of California: wildfire. With a landscape that is both fire prone as well as fire adapted, California often experiences active fire seasons. Recent years have been marked by large, catastrophic fire events that have burned hundreds of thousands of acres, destroying everything in their path, and affecting numerous communities and ecosystems. Fire modelling efforts help us better understand fire behavior and predict future fire occurrences. Conceptualizing fire-risk in fire prone landscapes and mapping how this risk will evolve through time are key components in effectively managing forest ecosystems, while minimizing and mitigating the impacts of large wildfire events. Yet, understanding the results of fire models can be challenging and difficult to represent using traditional geographic techniques. Since most of the variables that influence fire behavior are space and time variant, in this chapter, I propose a new approach of interpreting modeled wildfire predictions in 3D - across a continuum of space and time. Using modeled wildfire data created by Westerling (2018) and geographic information systems (GIS) space time mining capabilities (the Space Time Cube and Emerging Hot Spots Analysis functions), I identify different categories of wildfire hot spots and cold spots across California for different time periods, between 2000 and 2100. Furthermore, I show how wildfire patterns affect communities located at the wildland urban interface, and how wildfire hot spot patterns change across California’s ecoregions. To aid in the understanding of modeled wildfire activity, I create 3D visualizations to capture the evolution of fire activity. Adopting a space-time approach and identifying areas where fire threat is predicted to increase in the future can help prioritize high risk areas and direct fuel reduction and fire prevention efforts to vulnerable areas. In the fourth chapter, I investigate the effects of land cover changes in agricultural landscapes and study the main drivers behind these changes within one of the top agricultural producing counties in California – Kern County. I document the factors that influence landowners’ decisions to allocate their land in one of four main categories (nut trees, fruit trees, field & vegetable crops, and barren & rangeland). To achieve this goal, I build a series of multinomial logit models with panel data. At the parcel level, I analyze the effect of variables such as: parcel characteristics (size, slope, elevation), and parcel location (distance to: urban areas, roads, canals, wells, and protected lands) on land use transitions across a 10-year time interval (between 2008 and 2018). I further study the ways in which climatic variables might influence land use transitions among the four categories previously defined by documenting any noticeable trends in land cover changes associated with the extensive drought that California has experienced between 2012-2016. A better understanding of the drivers behind land use transitions is important in developing sustainable and resilient land management practices. For example, the change from annual crops to perennial crops (such as the expansion of almond orchards) has numerous repercussions for water use and for the environment. In addition to this, modelling land use transitions enables the development of predictive models that show what future land cover might look like. This is especially relevant in the context of climate variability (such as changes in the number of frost days), water shortages (depletion of groundwater resources), and increased temperatures. Throughout this dissertation, I explore ways in which geospatial techniques and land use modelling approaches can be used to provide a roadmap for environmental policy and land management. In the final chapter of this dissertation (Chapter 5), I discuss potential policy implications, highlight avenues for future research, and provide suggestions for adaptive management. Statistical and spatial land use modelling techniques can document the tradeoffs and feedbacks of land conversion and provide key insights on land cover dynamics. This information can be further used to reach conservation goals, improve management of working landscapes, and enhance ecosystem resilience to climate-related stressors.
- Published
- 2020
6. The regional impact of Land-Use Land-cover Change (LULCC) over West Africa from an ensemble of global climate models under the auspices of the WAMME2 project
- Author
-
Boone, AA, Boone, AA, Xue, Y, De Sales, F, Comer, RE, Hagos, S, Mahanama, S, Schiro, K, Song, G, Wang, G, Li, S, Mechoso, CR, Boone, AA, Boone, AA, Xue, Y, De Sales, F, Comer, RE, Hagos, S, Mahanama, S, Schiro, K, Song, G, Wang, G, Li, S, and Mechoso, CR
- Abstract
The population of the Sahel region of West Africa has approximately doubled in the past 50 years, and could potentially double again by the middle of this century. This has led to the northward expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural savanna, leading to widespread land use -land cover change (LULCC). Because there is strong evidence of significant surface-atmosphere coupling in this region, one of the main goals of the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation project phase II is to provide basic understanding of LULCC on the regional climate, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the seasonal variability of the West African Monsoon to LULCC. The prescribed LULCC is based on the changes from 1950 through 1990, representing a maximum feasible degradation scenario in the past half century. It is applied to 5 state of the art global climate models (GCMs) over a 6-year simulation period. Multiple GCMs are used because the magnitude of the impact of LULCC depends on model-dependent coupling strength between the surface and the overlying atmosphere, the magnitude of the surface biophysical changes, and how the key processes linking the surface with the atmosphere are parameterized within a particular model framework. Land cover maps and surface parameters may vary widely among models; therefore a special effort was made to impose consistent biogeophysical responses of surface parameters to LULCC using a simple experimental setup. The prescribed LULCC corresponds to degraded vegetation conditions, which mainly cause increases in the Bowen ratio and decreases in the surface net radiation, and result in a significant reduction in surface evaporation (upwards of 1 mm day−1 over a large part of the Sahel). This, in turn, mainly leads to less moisture convergence and precipitation over the LULCC zone. The overall impact is a rainfall reduction with every model, which ranges across models from 4 to 25 % averaged over the Sahel, and a southwa
- Published
- 2016
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