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We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between -5.9% and 10.6%. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2-4%) in the tropical belt (30°N-30°S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0, and found a 2.3% decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 to 5.5% for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9% for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960-2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does.

Previous multi-model intercomparisons have shown that chemistry-climate models exhibit significant biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We investigate annual-mean tropospheric column ozone in 15 models participating in the SPARC/IGAC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate/International Global Atmospheric Chemistry) Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). These models exhibit a positive bias, on average, of up to 40-50% in the Northern Hemisphere compared with observations derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument and Microwave Limb Sounder (OMI/MLS), and a negative bias of up to ~30% in the Southern Hemisphere. SOCOLv3.0 (version 3 of the Solar-Climate Ozone Links CCM), which participated in CCMI, simulates global-mean tropospheric ozone columns of 40.2 DU - approximately 33% larger than the CCMI multi-model mean. Here we introduce an updated version of SOCOLv3.0, "SOCOLv3.1", which includes an improved treatment of ozone sink processes, and results in a reduction in the tropospheric column ozone bias of up to 8 DU, mostly due to the inclusion of N 2 O 5 hydrolysis on tropospheric aerosols. As a result of these developments, tropospheric column ozone amounts simulated by SOCOLv3.1 are comparable with several other CCMI models. We apply Gaussian process emulation and sensitivity analysis to understand the remaining ozone bias in SOCOLv3.1. This shows that ozone precursors (nitrogen oxides (NO x ), carbon monoxide, methane and other volatile organic compounds) are responsible for more than 90% of the variance in tropospheric ozone. However, it may not be the emissions inventories themselves that result in the bias, but how the emissions are handled in SOCOLv3.1, and we discuss this in the wider context of the other CCMI models. Given that the emissions data set to be used for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project includes approximately 20% more NO x than the data set used for CCMI, further work is urgently needed to address the challenges of simulating sub-grid processes of importance to tropospheric ozone in the current generation of chemistry-climate models.

Major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Due to their relevance for the troposphere-stratosphere system, several previous studies have focused on their potential response to anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to a decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs, and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. Here we revisit the question of future SSWs changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative. From analyzing future integrations we find no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs over the 21 st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of SSWs. Changes in other SSWs characteristics, such as their duration and the tropospheric forcing, are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21 st century.