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Observations facilitate model evaluation and provide constraints that are relevant to future predictions and projections. Constraints for uninitialized projections are generally based on model performance in simulating climatology and climate change. For initialized predictions, skill scores over the hindcast period provide insight into the relative performance of models, and the value of initialization as compared to projections. Predictions and projections combined can, in principle, provide seamless decadal to multi-decadal climate information. For that, though, the role of observations in skill estimates and constraints needs to be understood in order to use both consistently across the prediction and projection time horizons. This paper discusses the challenges in doing so, illustrated by examples of state-of-the-art methods for predicting and projecting changes in European climate. It discusses constraints across prediction and projection methods, their interpretation, and the metrics that drive them such as process accuracy, accurate trends or high signal-to-noise ratio. We also discuss the potential to combine constraints to arrive at more reliable climate prediction systems from years to decades. To illustrate constraints on projections, we discuss their use in the UK's climate prediction system UKCP18, the case of model performance weights obtained from the Climate model Weighting by Independence and Performance (ClimWIP) method, and the estimated magnitude of the forced signal in observations from detection and attribution. For initialized predictions, skill scores are used to evaluate which models perform well, what might contribute to this performance, and how skill may vary over time. Skill estimates also vary with different phases of climate variability and climatic conditions, and are influenced by the presence of external forcing. This complicates the systematic use of observational constraints. Furthermore, we illustrate that sub-selecting simulations from large ensembles based on reproduction of the observed evolution of climate variations is a good testbed for combining projections and predictions. Finally, the methods described in this paper potentially add value to projections and predictions for users, but must be used with caution. All authors were supported by the EUCP project funded by the European Commission's Horizon 2020 programme, Grant Agreement number 776613. JM was also supported by the french ANR MOPGA project ARCHANGE and by the EU-H2020 Blue Action (GA 727852) and 4C projects (GA 821003). MGD also received funding by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness grant reference RYC-2017-22964. Peer Reviewed "Article signat per 14 autors/es: Gabriele C. Hegerl, Andrew P. Ballinger, Ben B. B. Booth, Leonard F. Borchert, Lukas Brunner, Markus G. Donat, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Glen R. Harris, Jason Lowe, Rashed Mahmood, Juliette Mignot, James M. Murphy, Didier Swingedouw and Antje Weisheimer"

Managing for the Future: Understanding the Relative Roles of Climate and Fishing on Structure and Dynamics of Marine Ecosystems.-- 20 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables, supplementary material https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.00540/full#supplementary-material.-- All datasets generated for this study are included in the article/Supplementary Material, This paper presents a new, updated, temporally dynamic Ecosim model for the Southern Benguela (1978–2015) by capturing recent advancements in our understanding of the dynamics and newly available data series from an additional decade of research in the region. The paper documents the model development and the thinking behind incorporating a newly available upwelling index, and observed fishing effort as important drivers of modeled ecosystem dynamics. The most sensitive predator-prey interactions were identified and vulnerabilities (of prey to predators) were estimated to improve model fit to field observations under each scenario. Sardine interactions with prey and predators were consistently found to be sensitive interactions in model fitting, accounting for at least 40% of the most sensitive trophic interactions in the southern Benguela modeled food web. Model fits to data were improved by a total of 85% reduction in sum of squares when upwelling effects on large phytoplankton availability to zooplankton and small pelagic fish was incorporated, geographic shifts in sardine distribution were captured by means of altered availability of sardine to predators, corresponding vulnerabilities of prey to predators were estimated, and an additional, small, hypothetical forcing function was fitted to small phytoplankton production. African penguin and Cape gannet fits to data series were improved by incorporating a recently published bird Food Availability Index, although model fits of several fish groups then deteriorated, emphasizing the need for additional empirical species-specific functional response studies. Attempts at fitting the full area model to either west coast or south coast time series did not improve overall model fits, highlighting limitations of the current non-spatialized model in describing coast-specific dynamics. This study shows promise in unraveling the observed dynamics of the Benguela upwelling ecosystem, and points to the importance of exploring spatially disaggregated approaches, in particular the new foraging habitat capacity of the Ecospace approach, to improve our understanding of processes whereby variability in upwelling influences dynamics of the Southern Benguela ecosystem. This is important in reconciling knowledge needed to manage fisheries and to protect marine biodiversity by means of ecosystem-based management in South Africa, and to advance management advice under future scenarios of climate change, Funding for this study through the South African Research Chairs Initiative, funded by DSI and administered by NRF, through the Research Chair in Marine Ecology and Fisheries (Grant No. 65238) is also gratefully acknowledged. In addition, this work is also a contribution to the EU-Horizon 2020 project “TRIATLAS” (Grant No. 817578) and the One Ocean Hub, With the funding support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S), of the Spanish Research Agency (AEI)

Ocean acidification (OA) is a serious consequence of climate change with complex organism-to-ecosystem effects that have been observed through field observations but are mainly derived from experimental studies. Although OA trends and the resulting biological impacts are likely exacerbated in the semi-enclosed and highly populated Mediterranean Sea, some fundamental knowledge gaps still exist. These gaps are at tributed to both the uneven capacity for OA research that exists between Mediterranean countries, as well as to the subtle and long-term biological, physical and chemical interactions that define OA impacts. In this paper, we systematically analyzed the different aspects of OA research in the Mediterranean region based on two sources: the United Nation’s International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Ocean Acidification International Coordination Center (OA-ICC) database, and an extensive survey. Our analysis shows that 1) there is an uneven geographic capacity in OA research, and illustrates that both the Algero-Provencal and Ionian sub-basins are currently the least studied Mediterranean areas, 2) the carbonate system is still poorly quantified in coastal zones, and long-term time-series are still sparse across the Mediterranean Sea, which is a challenge for studying its variability and assessing coastal OA trends, 3) the most studied groups of organisms are autotrophs (algae, phanerogams, phytoplankton), mollusks, and corals, while microbes, small mollusks (mainly pteropods), and sponges are among the least studied, 4) there is an overall paucity in socio-economic, paleontological, and modeling studies in the Mediterranean Sea, and 5) in spite of general resource availability and the agreement for improved and coordinated OA governance, there is a lack of consistent OA policies in the Mediterranean Sea. In addition to highlighting the current status, trends and gaps of OA research, this work also provides recommendations, based on both our literature assessment and a survey that targeted the Mediterranean OA scientific community. In light of the ongoing 2021-2030 United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development, this work might provide a guideline to close gaps of knowledge in the Mediterranean OA research. Systematic Review Registration: https://www.oceandecade.org/., The IAEA is grateful for the support provided to its Marine Environment Laboratories by the Government of the Principality of Monaco. This is a contribution of the IAEA’s Ocean Acidification International Coordination Centre (OA-ICC), a project generously funded through the Peaceful Uses Initiative of the IAEA. The authors would like to thank the OA-ICC for supporting the OA Med-Hub in expanding its activities and visibility. MG and PZ acknowledge funding from MINECO (BIOCAL Project - PID2020-113526RB-I00.

Globally important services are supported by Southern Ocean ecosystems, underpinned by the structure, function, and dynamics of complex interconnected and regionally distinctive food webs. These food webs vary in response to a combination of physical and chemical processes that alter productivity, species composition and the relative abundance and dynamics of organisms. Combined with regional and seasonal variability, climate-induced changes and human activities have and are expected to continue to drive important structural and functional changes to Southern Ocean food webs. However, our current understanding of food web structure, function, status, and trends is patchy in space and time, and methods for systematically assessing and comparing community-level responses to change within and across regional and temporal scales are not well developed. Insights gained from food web modelling studies—ranging from theoretical analyses of ecosystem resilience and adaptation, to qualitative and quantitative descriptions of the system—can assist in resolving patterns of energy flow and the ecological mechanisms that drive food web structure, function, and responses to drivers (such as fishing and climate change). This understanding is required to inform robust management strategies to conserve Southern Ocean food webs and the ecosystem services they underpin in the face of change. This paper synthesises the current state of knowledge regarding Southern Ocean pelagic food webs, highlighting the distinct regional food web characteristics, including key drivers of energy flow, dominant species, and network properties that may indicate system resilience. In particular, the insights, gaps, and potential integration of existing knowledge and Southern Ocean food web models are evaluated as a basis for developing integrated food web assessments that can be used to test the efficacy of alternative management and policy options. We discuss key limitations of existing models for assessing change resulting from various drivers, summarise priorities for model development and identify that significant progress could be made to support policy by advancing the development of food web models coupled to projected biogeochemical models, such as in Earth System models. Fil: McCormack, Stacey A.. University of Tasmania; Australia Fil: Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica. University of Tasmania; Australia Fil: Trebilco, Rowan. University of Tasmania; Australia Fil: Griffith, Gary. University of Princeton; Estados Unidos Fil: Hill, Simeon L.. British Antarctic Survey; Reino Unido Fil: Hoover, Carie. Dalhousie University Halifax; Canadá Fil: Johnston, Nadine M.. British Antarctic Survey; Reino Unido Fil: Marina, Tomas Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas; Argentina Fil: Murphy, Eugene J.. British Antarctic Survey; Reino Unido Fil: Pakhomov, Evgeny A.. University of British Columbia; Canadá Fil: Pinkerton, Matt. National Institute Of Water And Atmospheric Research.; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Plagányi, Éva. University of Tasmania; Australia Fil: Saravia, Leonardo Ariel. Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento; Argentina Fil: Subramaniam, Roshni C.. University of Tasmania; Australia Fil: Van de Putte, Anton P.. Université Libre de Bruxelles; Bélgica. Katholikie Universiteit Leuven; Bélgica Fil: Constable, Andrew J.. University of Tasmania; Australia

Buildings play a vital role in reaching the targets stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. Increasing the use of wood in construction is a proposed upcoming strategy to reduce the embodied greenhouse gas emissions of buildings. This study examines existing life cycle assessments of wooden buildings. The aim is to investigate embodied greenhouse gas emission results reported, as well as methodological approaches applied in existing literature. The study applies the protocol for Systematic Literature Reviews and finds 79 relevant papers. From the final sample, the study analyses 226 different scenarios in-depth in terms of embodied emissions, life cycle assessment method, life cycle inventory modelling and biogenic carbon approach. The analysis shows that the average reported values of embodied greenhouse gas emissions of wooden buildings are one-third to half of the embodied emissions reported from buildings in general. Additionally, from the analysis of the final sample we find that the majority of wooden building life cycle assessments apply similar methods and often leave out biogenic carbon from the assessment or simply do not declare it. This implies that the focus on variability in the different methods applied in wooden building life cycle assessments needs to be increased to establish the relationship between methodological choices and embodied emissions of wooden buildings. Further, transparency and conformity in biogenic carbon accounting in life cycle assessments is essential to enhance comparability between life cycle assessment studies and to avoid distortions in embodied GHG emission results., Frontiers in Built Environment, 7, ISSN:2297-3362

Southern Ocean ecosystems are globally important. Processes in the Antarctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and the Southern Ocean directly influence global atmospheric and oceanic systems. Southern Ocean biogeochemistry has also been shown to have global importance. In contrast, ocean ecological processes are often seen as largely separate from the rest of the global system. In this paper, we consider the degree of ecological connectivity at different trophic levels, linking Southern Ocean ecosystems with the global ocean, and their importance not only for the regional ecosystem but also the wider Earth system. We also consider the human system connections, including the role of Southern Ocean ecosystems in supporting society, culture, and economy in many nations, influencing public and political views and hence policy. Rather than Southern Ocean ecosystems being defined by barriers at particular oceanic fronts, ecological changes are gradual due to cross-front exchanges involving oceanographic processes and organism movement. Millions of seabirds and hundreds of thousands of cetaceans move north out of polar waters in the austral autumn interacting in food webs across the Southern Hemisphere, and a few species cross the equator. A number of species migrate into the east and west ocean-basin boundary current and continental shelf regions of the major southern continents. Human travel in and out of the Southern Ocean region includes fisheries, tourism, and scientific vessels in all ocean sectors. These operations arise from many nations, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, and are important in local communities as well as national economic, scientific, and political activities. As a result of the extensive connectivity, future changes in Southern Ocean ecosystems will have consequences throughout the Earth system, affecting ecosystem services with socio-economic impacts throughout the world. The high level of connectivity also means that changes and policy decisions in marine ecosystems outside the Southern Ocean have consequences for ecosystems south of the Antarctic Polar Front. Knowledge of Southern Ocean ecosystems and their global connectivity is critical for interpreting current change, projecting future change impacts, and identifying integrated strategies for conserving and managing both the Southern Ocean and the broader Earth system. © Copyright © 2021 Murphy, Johnston, Hofmann, Phillips, Jackson, Constable, Henley, Melbourne-Thomas, Trebilco, Cavanagh, Tarling, Saunders, Barnes, Costa, Corney, Fraser, Höfer, Hughes, Sands, Thorpe, Trathan and Xavier. This work was supported by the UK RI- Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) ALI-Science Southern Ocean ecosystems project of the BAS Ecosystems Programme. EH was supported by the United States National Science Foundation Grant OPP-1643652. SH was supported by the United Kingdom Natural Environment Research Council through Grant NE/K010034/1. CF was also supported by a Rutherford Discovery Fellowship from the Royal Society of New Zealand (RDF-UOO1803) and by the New Zealand Antarctic Science Platform (Project 3). SC was also supported by the Australian Fisheries Research Development Corporation through Grant FRDC2018/133. JH was supported by ANID (FONDAP-IDEAL 15150003) and FONDECYT (Regular 1211338). ICED also co-supported JH attendance at the MEASO workshop. JX was supported by the strategic program of MARE (Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre), financed by the Foundation for Science and Technology,Portugal (UIDB/04292/2020).

Global climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and flooding. This is the primary way many individuals experience climate change, which has led researchers to investigate the influence of personal experience on climate change concern and action. However, existing evidence is still limited and in some cases contradictory. At the same time, behavioral decision research has highlighted the importance of pre-existing values and beliefs in shaping how individuals experience changes in environmental conditions. This is in line with theories of motivated reasoning, which suggest that people interpret and process information in a biased manner to maintain their prior beliefs. Yet, the evidence for directional motivated reasoning in the context of climate change beliefs has recently been questioned. In the current paper, we critically review the literature on the interrelationships between personal experience of local weather anomalies, extreme weather events and climate change beliefs. Overall, our review shows that there is some evidence that local warming can generate climate change concern, but the capacity for personal experience to promote action may rely upon the experience first being attributed to climate change. Rare extreme weather events will likely have limited impact on judgments and decisions unless they have occurred recently. However, even recent events may have limited impact among individuals who hold strong pre-existing beliefs rejecting the reality of climate change. We identify limitations of existing research and suggest directions for future work.

Behavioural scientists have been studying public perceptions to understand how and why people behave the way they do towards climate change. In recent times, enormous changes to behaviour and people’s interactions have been brought about by the worldwide coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, unexpectedly and indefinitely; some of which have environmental implications (e.g., travelling less). An innovative way to analyse public perceptions and behaviour is with the use of social media to understand the discourse around climate change. This paper focuses on assessing changes in social media discourse around actions for climate change mitigation over time during the global pandemic. Twitter data were collected at three different points during the pandemic: February (time 1), June (time 2), and October 2020 (time 3). By using machine learning techniques, including recurrent neural networks (RNN) and unsupervised learning Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modelling, we identified tweets mentioning actions to mitigate climate change. The findings identified topics related to “government actions,” “environmental behaviours,” “sustainable production,” and “awareness,” among others. We found an increase in tweets identified as “action tweets” relating to climate change for time 2 and time 3 compared with time 1. In addition, we found that the topic of energy seemed to be of relevance within the public’s perceptions of actions for climate change mitigation; this did not seem to change over time. We found that the topic of “government actions” was present across all time points and may have been influenced by political events at time 1, and by COVID-19 discourse at times 2 and 3. Moreover, topic changes over time within Twitter indicated a pattern that may have reflected restrictions on mobility as these tended to focus on individual and private sphere behaviours rather than group and public sphere behaviours. Changes in topic patterns may also reflect an increase in salience of certain behaviours (e.g., shopping), which may have received increased attention due to lockdown restrictions. Considering restrictions and adaptability challenges people face in times of a global pandemic may help to identify how to support sustainable behaviour change and the likely persistence of these changes.

On April 17, 2019, the University of Bristol became the first university in the United Kingdom (UK) to declare a climate emergency. Against a backdrop of high visibility and public concern about climate change, as well as climate emergency declarations from other sectors, another 36 UK universities followed suit over the next year. This paper explores what these climate emergency declarations show about how UK universities are responding to climate change and wider sustainability concerns, as well as how they view and present themselves in relation to this. Critical Discourse Analysis of the declarations allowed for in-depth scrutiny of the purpose and wider social context of the documents, demonstrating that they function as promotional statements, as presenting a collective voice, and showing a commitment from the universities to action. We argue that while these provide the potential for advancing sustainability within the sector, the tendency to use declarations as publicity and promotional material does detract from new commitments and action. The research contributes to the discussion around the role of universities as institutions with a responsibility both to act on climate change and to shape the broader societal response to it. It also provides insights as to how future research can evaluate universities in relation to their commitments and strategies, and provides suggestions to help ensure they live up to the promises and intentions that they have publicly made.

22 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables, supplementary material https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.584445/full#supplementary-materia, Understanding the vulnerability of marine calcifiers to ocean acidification is a critical issue, especially in the Southern Ocean (SO), which is likely to be the one of the first, and most severely affected regions. Since the industrial revolution, ~30% of anthropogenic CO2 has been absorbed by the global oceans. Average surface seawater pH levels have already decreased by 0.1 and are projected to decline by ~0.3 by the year 2100. This process, known as ocean acidification (OA), is shallowing the saturation horizon, which is the depth below which calcium carbonate (CaCO3) dissolves, likely increasing the vulnerability of many resident marine calcifiers to dissolution. The negative impact of OA may be seen first in species depositing more soluble CaCO3 mineral phases such as aragonite and high-Mg calcite (HMC). Ocean warming could further exacerbate the effects of OA in these particular species. Here we combine a review and a quantitative meta-analysis to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge about skeletal mineralogy of major taxonomic groups of SO marine calcifiers and to make projections about how OA might affect a broad range of SO taxa. We consider a species' geographic range, skeletal mineralogy, biological traits, and potential strategies to overcome OA. The meta-analysis of studies investigating the effects of the OA on a range of biological responses such as shell state, development and growth rate illustrates that the response variation is largely dependent on mineralogical composition. Species-specific responses due to mineralogical composition indicate that taxa with calcitic, aragonitic, and HMC skeletons, could be at greater risk to expected future carbonate chemistry alterations, and low-Mg calcite (LMC) species could be mostly resilient to these changes. Environmental and biological control on the calcification process and/or Mg content in calcite, biological traits, and physiological processes are also expected to influence species-specific responses, We are grateful for support to publish this paper from The Pew Charitable Trusts. We acknowledged support of the publication fee by the CSIC Open Access Publication Support Initiative through its Unit of Information Resources for Research (URICI). BF was supported by a postdoctoral contract Juan de la Cierva-Incorporación (IJCI-2017-31478) of Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, With the funding support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S), of the Spanish Research Agency (AEI)

Este artículo contiene 30 páginas, 14 figuras., The Mediterranean community represented in this paper is the result of more than 30 years of EU and nationally funded coordination, which has led to key contributions in science concepts and operational initiatives. Together with the establishment of operational services, the community has coordinated with universities, research centers, research infrastructures and private companies to implement advanced multi-platform and integrated observing and forecasting systems that facilitate the advancement of operational services, scientific achievements and mission-oriented innovation. Thus, the community can respond to societal challenges and stakeholders needs, developing a variety of fit-for-purpose services such as the Copernicus Marine Service. The combination of state-of-the-art observations and forecasting provides new opportunities for downstreamservices in response to the needs of the heavily populatedMediterranean coastal areas and to climate change. The challenge over the next decade is to sustain ocean observations within the research community, to monitor the variability at small scales, e.g., the mesoscale/submesoscale, to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability in the circulation, and thus establish the decadal variability, understand and correct the model-associated biases and to enhance model-data integration and ensemble forecasting for uncertainty estimation. Better knowledge and understanding of the level ofMediterranean variability will enable a subsequent evaluation of the impacts and mitigation of the effect of human activities and climate change on the biodiversity and the ecosystem, which will support environmental assessments and decisions. Further challenges include extending the science-based added-value products into societal relevant downstream services and engaging with communities to build initiatives that will contribute to the 2030 Agenda and more specifically to SDG14 and the UN’s Decade of Ocean Science for sustainable development, by this contributing to bridge the science-policy gap. The Mediterranean observing and forecasting capacity was built on the basis of community best practices in monitoring and modeling, and can serve as a basis for the development of an integrated global ocean observing system.

Source at https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00331. The ocean capacity to store carbon is crucial, and currently absorbs about 25% CO2 supply to the atmosphere. The ability to store carbon has an economic value, but such estimates are not common for ocean environments, and not yet estimated for the Arctic Ocean. With the severe climatic changes in the Arctic Ocean, impacting sea ice and potentially the vertical carbon transport mechanisms, a projection of future changes in Arctic Ocean carbon storage is also of interest. In order to value present and evolving carbon storage in the changing Arctic marine environment we combine an ocean model with an economic analysis. Placing a value on these changes helps articulate the importance of the carbon storage service to society. The standing stock and fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon from the atmosphere, rivers, shelves and through the gateways linking to lower latitudes, and to the deep of the Arctic Ocean are investigated using the physically chemically biologically coupled SINMOD model. To obtain indications of the effect of climate change, trajectories of two IPCC climate scenarios RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 from the Max Planck Institute were used for the period 2006–2099. The results show an increase in the net carbon storage in the Arctic Ocean in this time period to be 1.0 and 2.3% in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Most of this increase is caused by an increased atmospheric CO2 uptake until 2070. The continued increase in inorganic carbon storage between 2070 and 2099 results from increased horizontal influx from lower latitude marine regions. First estimates of carbon storage values in the Arctic Ocean are calculated using the social cost of carbon (SCC) and carbon market values as two outer bounds from 2019 to 2099, based on the simulated scenarios. We find the Arctic Ocean will over the time period studied increase its storage of carbon to a value of between €27.6 billion and €1 trillion. This paper clearly neglects a multitude of different negative consequences of climate change in the Arctic, but points to the fact that there are also some positive counterbalancing effects.