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Background and Aims: Heart failure (HF) is a significant cause of in-hospital mortality, especially for the elderly admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). This study aimed to develop a web-based calculator to predict 30-day in-hospital mortality for elderly patients with HF in the ICU and found a relationship between risk factors and the predicted probability of death., Methods and Results: Data ( N = 4450) from the MIMIC-III/IV database were used for model training and internal testing. Data ( N = 2,752) from the eICU-CRD database were used for external validation. The Brier score and area under the curve (AUC) were employed for the assessment of the proposed nomogram. Restrictive cubic splines (RCSs) found the cutoff values of variables. The smooth curve showed the relationship between the variables and the predicted probability of death. A total of 7,202 elderly patients with HF were included in the study, of which 1,212 died. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that 30-day mortality of HF patients in ICU was significantly associated with heart rate (HR), 24-h urine output (24h UOP), serum calcium, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), NT-proBNP, SpO 2 , systolic blood pressure (SBP), and temperature ( P < 0.01). The AUC and Brier score of the nomogram were 0.71 (0.67, 0.75) and 0.12 (0.11, 0.15) in the testing set and 0.73 (0.70, 0.75), 0.13 (0.12, 0.15), 0.65 (0.62, 0.68), and 0.13 (0.12, 0.13) in the external validation set, respectively. The RCS plot showed that the cutoff values of variables were HR of 96 bmp, 24h UOP of 1.2 L, serum calcium of 8.7 mg/dL, BUN of 30 mg/dL, NT-pro-BNP of 5121 pg/mL, SpO 2 of 93%, SBP of 137 mmHg, and a temperature of 36.4°C., Conclusion: Decreased temperature, decreased SpO 2 , decreased 24h UOP, increased NT-proBNP, increased serum BUN, increased or decreased SBP, fast HR, and increased or decreased serum calcium increase the predicted probability of death. The web-based nomogram developed in this study showed good performance in predicting 30-day in-hospital mortality for elderly HF patients in the ICU., Competing Interests: ZW was employed by the Pharnexcloud Digital Technology (Chengdu) Co. Ltd. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Wang, Huang, Zhang, Liu, Shu, Duan, Wang, Yin and Cao.)

Background: Short-term readmission for pediatric pulmonary hypertension (PH) is associated with a substantial social and personal burden. However, tools to predict individualized readmission risk are lacking. This study aimed to develop machine learning models to predict 30-day unplanned readmission in children with PH., Methods: This study collected data on pediatric inpatients with PH from the Chongqing Medical University Medical Data Platform from January 2012 to January 2019. Key clinical variables were selected by the least absolute shrinkage and the selection operator. Prediction models were selected from 15 machine learning algorithms with excellent performance, which was evaluated by area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC). The outcome of the predictive model was interpreted by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)., Results: A total of 5,913 pediatric patients with PH were included in the final cohort. The CatBoost model was selected as the predictive model with the greatest AUC for 0.81 (95% CI : 0.77-0.86), high accuracy for 0.74 (95% CI : 0.72-0.76), sensitivity 0.78 (95% CI : 0.69-0.87), and specificity 0.74 (95% CI : 0.72-0.76). Age, length of stay (LOS), congenital heart surgery, and nonmedical order discharge showed the greatest impact on 30-day readmission in pediatric PH, according to SHAP results., Conclusions: This study developed a CatBoost model to predict the risk of unplanned 30-day readmission in pediatric patients with PH, which showed more significant performance compared with traditional logistic regression. We found that age, LOS, congenital heart surgery, and nonmedical order discharge were important factors for 30-day readmission in pediatric PH., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Duan, Shu, Zhao, Xiang, Wang, Huang, Zhang, Xiao, Zhou, Xie and Liu.)

Background: The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of clinical characteristics in elderly patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Methods: The cohort was selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program dating from 2010 to 2015. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using a Cox proportional risk regression model, and a nomogram was constructed to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year prognoses of elderly patients with TNBC. A concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to verify the nomogram. Results: The results of the study identified a total of 5,677 patients who were randomly divided 6:4 into a training set ( n = 3,422) and a validation set ( n = 2,255). The multivariate analysis showed that age, race, grade, TN stage, chemotherapy status, radiotherapy status, and tumor size at diagnosis were independent factors affecting the prognosis of elderly patients with TNBC. Together, the 1 -, 3 -, and 5-year nomograms were made up of 8 variables. For the verification of these results, the C-index of the training set and validation set were 0.757 (95% CI 0.743-0.772) and 0.750 (95% CI 0.742-0.768), respectively. The calibration curve also showed that the actual observation of overall survival (OS) was in good agreement with the prediction of the nomograms. Additionally, the DCA showed that the nomogram had good clinical application value. According to the score of each patient, the risk stratification system of elderly patients with TNBC was further established by perfectly dividing these patients into three groups, namely, low risk, medium risk, and high risk, in all queues. In addition, the results showed that radiotherapy could improve prognosis in the low-risk group ( P = 0.00056), but had no significant effect in the medium-risk ( P < 0.4) and high-risk groups ( P < 0.71). An online web app was built based on the proposed nomogram for convenient clinical use. Conclusion: This study was the first to construct a nomogram and risk stratification system for elderly patients with TNBC. The well-established nomogram and the important findings from our study could guide follow-up management strategies for elderly patients with TNBC and help clinicians improve individual treatment., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Liu, Yue, Huang, Duan, Zhao, Liu and Xiang.)