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Background and Objectives: Acute kidney injury (AKI) that results from ischemia is a common clinical syndrome and correlates with high morbidity and mortality among hospitalized patients. However, a clinical tool to predict mortality risk of ischemic AKI is not available. In this study, we aimed to develop and validate models to predict the 30-day and 1-year mortality risk of hospitalized patients with ischemic AKI., Methods: A total of 1,836 admissions with ischemic AKI were recruited from 277,898 inpatients admitted to three affiliated tertiary general hospitals of Central South University in China between January 2015 and December 2015. Patients in the final analysis were followed up for 1 year. Study patients were randomly divided in a 7:3 ratio to form the training cohort and validation cohort. Multivariable regression analyses were used for developing mortality prediction models., Results: Hepatorenal syndrome, shock, central nervous system failure, Charlson comorbidity index (≥2 points), mechanical ventilation, renal function at discharge were independent risk factors for 30-day mortality after ischemic AKI, while malignancy, sepsis, heart failure, liver failure, Charlson comorbidity index (≥2 points), mechanical ventilation, and renal function at discharge were predictors for 1-year mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of 30-day prediction model were 0.878 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.849-0.908) in the training cohort and 0.867 (95% CI: 0.820-0.913) in the validation cohort. The AUROCs of the 1-year mortality prediction in the training and validation cohort were 0.803 (95% CI: 0.772-0.834) and 0.788 (95% CI: 0.741-0.835), respectively., Conclusion: Our easily applied prediction models can effectively identify individuals at high mortality risk within 30 days or 1 year in hospitalized patients with ischemic AKI. It can guide the optimal clinical management to minimize mortality after an episode of ischemic AKI., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Wang, Yan, Zhang, Deng, Luo, Wang and Duan.)

Background: Sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) is common in critically ill patients, which is associated with significantly increased mortality. Existing mortality prediction tools showed insufficient predictive power or failed to reflect patients' dynamic clinical evolution. Therefore, the study aimed to develop and validate machine learning-based models for real-time mortality prediction in critically ill patients with SA-AKI., Methods: The multi-center retrospective study included patients from two distinct databases. A total of 12,132 SA-AKI patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) were randomly allocated to the training, validation, and internal test sets. An additional 3,741 patients from the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) served as an external test set. For every 12 h during the ICU stays, the state-of-the-art eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to predict the risk of in-hospital death in the following 48, 72, and 120 h and in the first 28 days after ICU admission. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were calculated to evaluate the models' performance., Results: The XGBoost models, based on routine clinical variables updated every 12 h, showed better performance in mortality prediction than the SOFA score and SAPS-II. The AUCs of the XGBoost models for mortality over different time periods ranged from 0.848 to 0.804 in the internal test set and from 0.818 to 0.748 in the external test set. The shapley additive explanation method provided interpretability for the XGBoost models, which improved the understanding of the association between the predictor variables and future mortality., Conclusions: The interpretable machine learning XGBoost models showed promising performance in real-time mortality prediction in critically ill patients with SA-AKI, which are useful tools for early identification of high-risk patients and timely clinical interventions., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Luo, Yan, Duan, Kang, Deng, Liu, Wu and Wu.)