Search

BackgroundThe Rho-kinase (ROCK) inhibitor Fasudil has shown symptomatic and disease-modifying effects in Parkinson’s disease (PD) models in vitro and in vivo. In Japan, Fasudil has been approved for the treatment of subarachnoid haemorrhage since 1995 and shows a favourable safety profile.Objectives/designTo investigate the safety, tolerability, and symptomatic efficacy of ROCK-inhibitor Fasudil in comparison to placebo in a randomized, national, multicenter, double-blind phase IIa study in patients with PD.Methods/analysisWe plan to include 75 patients with at least ‘probable’ PD (MDS criteria), Hoehn and Yahr stages 1–3, and age 30–80 years in 13 German study sites. Patients must be non-fluctuating and their response to PD medication must have been stable for 6 weeks. Patients will be randomly allocated to treatment with the oral investigational medicinal product (IMP) containing either Fasudil in two dosages, or placebo, for a total of 22 days. As primary analysis, non-inferiority of low/high dose of Fasudil on the combined endpoint consisting of occurrence of intolerance and/or treatment-related serious adverse events (SAEs) over 22 days will be assessed in a sequential order, starting with the lower dose. Secondary endpoints will include tolerability alone over 22 days and occurrence of treatment-related SAEs (SARs) over 22 and 50 days and will be compared on group level. Additional secondary endpoints include efficacy on motor and non-motor symptoms, measured on established scales, and will be assessed at several timepoints. Biomaterial will be collected to determine pharmacokinetics of Fasudil and its active metabolite, and to evaluate biomarkers of neurodegeneration.Ethics/registration/discussionAfter positive evaluation by the competent authority and the ethics committee, patient recruitment started in the 3rd quarter of 2023. ROCK-PD is registered with Eudra-CT (2021-003879-34) and clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05931575). Results of this trial can pave way for conducting extended-duration studies assessing both symptomatic efficacy and disease-modifying properties of Fasudil.

IntroductionBased on two diagnostic accuracy studies in high-prevalence settings, two distinctly different combinations of cut-off values have been recommended to identify persons at risk for somatic symptom disorder (SSD) with the combination of the Patient-Health Questionnaire-15 (PHQ-15) and the Somatic Symptom Disorder—B Criteria Scale (SSD-12). We investigated whether the reported sensitivity and specificity of both recommended cut-off combinations are transferable to primary care.MethodsIn a cross-sectional study, 420 unselected adult primary care patients completed PHQ-15 and SSD-12. Patients scoring ≥9 and ≥ 23 (recommended cut-off combination #1) or ≥ 8 and ≥ 13 (recommended cut-off combination #2) were considered test-positive for SSD, respectively. To assess the validity of the reported sensitivity and specificity in different low- to high-prevalence settings, we compared correspondingly expected proportions of test positives to the proportion observed in our sample.ResultsBased on combination #1, 38 participants (9%) were found to be test positive, far fewer than expected, based on the reported values for sensitivity and specificity (expected minimum frequency 30% with a true prevalence ≥1%). This can only be explained by a lower sensitivity and higher specificity in primary care. For combination #2, 98 participants (23%) were test positive, a finding consistent with a true prevalence of SSD of 15% or lower.DiscussionOur analyzes strongly suggest that the sensitivity and specificity estimates reported for combination #1 are not applicable to unselected primary care patients and that the cut-off for the SSD (≥23) is too strict. Cut-off combination #2 seems more applicable but still needs to be tested in studies that compare screening findings by questionnaires with validated diagnostic interviews as reference standards in primary care populations.

Non-linear regression modeling is common in epidemiology for prediction purposes or estimating relationships between predictor and response variables. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression is one such method, for example, highly relevant to Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis. RCS regression uses third-order polynomials joined at knot points to model non-linear relationships. The standard approach is to place knots by a regular sequence of quantiles between the outer boundaries. A regression curve can easily be fitted to the sample using a relatively high number of knots. The problem is then overfitting, where a regression model has a good fit to the given sample but does not generalize well to other samples. A low knot count is thus preferred. However, the standard knot selection process can lead to underperformance in the sparser regions of the predictor variable, especially when using a low number of knots. It can also lead to overfitting in the denser regions. We present a simple greedy search algorithm using a backward method for knot selection that shows reduced prediction error and Bayesian information criterion scores compared to the standard knot selection process in simulation experiments. We have implemented the algorithm as part of an open-source R-package, knutar.

Background: In chronically ill patients, medication adherence during implementation can be crucial for treatment success and can decrease health costs. In some populations, regression models do not show this relationship. We aim to estimate subgroup-specific and personalized effects to identify target groups for interventions.Methods: We defined three cohorts of patients with type 1 diabetes (n = 12,713), type 2 diabetes (n = 85,162) and hyperlipidemia (n = 117,485) from German claims data between 2012 and 2015. We estimated the association of adherence during implementation in the first year (proportion of days covered) and mean total costs in the three following years, controlled for sex, age, Charlson’s Comorbidity Index, initial total costs, severity of the disease and surrogates for health behavior. We fitted three different types of models on training data: 1) linear regression models for the overall conditional associations between adherence and costs, 2) model-based trees to identify subgroups of patients with heterogeneous adherence effects, and 3) model-based random forests to estimate personalized adherence effects. To assess the performance of the latter, we conditionally re-estimated the personalized effects using test data, the fixed structure of the forests, and fixed effect estimates of the remaining covariates.Results: 1) our simple linear regression model estimated a positive adherence effect, that is an increase in total costs of 10.73 Euro per PDC-point and year for diabetes type 1, 3.92 Euro for diabetes type 2 and 1.92 Euro for hyperlipidemia (all p ≤ 0.001). 2) The model-based tree detected subgroups with negative estimated adherence effects for diabetes type 2 (-1.69 Euro, 24.4% of cohort) and hyperlipidemia (-0.11 Euro, 36.1% and -5.50 Euro, 5.3%). 3) Our model-based random forest estimated personalized adherence effects with a significant proportion (4.2%–24.1%) of negative effects (up to -8.31 Euro). The precision of these estimates was high for diabetes type 2 and hyperlipidemia patients.Discussion: Our approach shows that tree-based models can identify patients with different adherence effects and the precision of personalized effects is measurable. Identified patients can form target groups for adherence-promotion interventions. The method can also be applied to other outcomes such as hospitalization risk to maximize positive health effects of an intervention.

Understanding immune responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is crucial to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a multiplex approach, serum IgG responses against the whole SARS-CoV-2 proteome and the nucleocapsid proteins of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) were measured in SARS-CoV-2-infected donors and healthy controls. COVID-19 severity strongly correlated with IgG responses against the nucleocapsid (N) of SARS-CoV-2 and possibly with the number of viral antigens targeted. Furthermore, a strong correlation between COVID-19 severity and serum responses against N of endemic alpha- but not betacoronaviruses was detected. This correlation was neither caused by cross-reactivity of antibodies, nor by a general boosting effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection on pre-existing humoral immunity. These findings raise the prospect of a potential disease progression marker for COVID-19 severity that allows for early stratification of infected individuals.

Burns are leading causes of mortality and morbidity, including prolonged hospitalization, disfigurement, and disability. Erythropoietin (EPO) is a well-known hormone causing erythropoiesis. However, EPO may play a role in healing acute and chronic wounds due to its anti-inflammatory and pro-regenerative effects. Therefore, the large, prospective, placebo-controlled, randomized, double-blind, multi-center clinical trial “EPO in Burns” was initiated to investigate the effects of EPO versus placebo treatment in severely burned patients. The primary endpoint of “EPO in Burns” was defined as the time elapsed until complete re-epithelialization of a defined split skin graft donor site. Additional analyses of post hoc defined subgroups were performed in view of the primary endpoint. The verum (n 45) and control (n 39) groups were compared with regard to the time it took for study wounds (a predefined split skin graft donor site) to reach the three stages of wound healing (re-epithelialization levels). In addition, the effects of gender (females n 18) and concomitant medications insulin (n 36), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (n 41), and vasopressor agents (n 43) were tested. Life tables were used to compare study groups (EPO vs. placebo) within subgroups. The Cox regression model was applied to evaluate interactions between the study drug (EPO) and concomitant medications for each re-epithelialization level. Using our post hoc defined subgroups, we observed a lower chance of wound healing for women compared to men (in terms of hazard ratio: hr100%: 5.984 [95%-CI: (0.805–44.490), p = 0.080]) in our study population, regardless of the study medication. In addition, results indicated an earlier onset of re-epithelialization in the first days of EPO treatment (EPO: 10% vs. Placebo: 3%). Moreover, the interpretation of the hazard ratio suggested EPO might have a positive, synergistic effect on early stages of re-epithelialization when combined with insulin [hr50%: 1.307 (p = 0.568); hr75%: 1,199 (p = 0.715)], as well as a stabilizing effect on critically ill patients [reduced need for vasopressors in the EPO group (EPO: 44% vs. Placebo 59%)]. However, additional high-quality data from clinical trials designed to address these endpoints are required to gain further insight into these effects.

Background and Purpose: To identify factors associated with prior stroke at presentation in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO).Methods: We studied cross-sectional data from the International PFO Consortium Study (NCT00859885). Patients with first-ever stroke and those with prior stroke at baseline were analyzed for an association with PFO-related (right-to-left shunt at rest, atrial septal aneurysm, deep venous thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, and Valsalva maneuver) and PFO-unrelated factors (age, gender, BMI, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, migraine, coronary artery disease, aortic plaque). A multivariable analysis was used to adjust effect estimation for confounding, e.g., owing to the age-dependent definition of study groups in this cross-sectional study design.Results: We identified 635 patients with first-ever and 53 patients with prior stroke. Age, BMI, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, coronary artery disease, and right-to-left shunt (RLS) at rest were significantly associated with prior stroke. Using a pre-specified multivariable logistic regression model, age (Odds Ratio 1.06), BMI (OR 1.06), hypercholesterolemia (OR 1.90) and RLS at rest (OR 1.88) were strongly associated with prior stroke.Based on these factors, we developed a nomogram to illustrate the strength of the relation of individual factors to prior stroke.Conclusion: In patients with CS and PFO, the likelihood of prior stroke is associated with both, PFO-related and PFO-unrelated factors.

Non-invasive risk stratification of cardiac patients has been the subject of numerous studies. Most of these investigations either researched unique risk predictors or compared the predictive power of different predictors. Fewer studies suggested a combination of a small number of non-invasive indices to increase the accuracy of high-risk group selection. To advance non-invasive risk assessment of cardiac patients, we propose a combination score (termed the Polyscore) of seven different cardiac risk stratifiers that predominantly quantify autonomic cardiovascular control and regulation, namely the slope of heart rate turbulence, deceleration capacity of heart rate, non-invasively assessed baroreflex sensitivity, resting respiration frequency, expiration triggered sinus arrhythmia, post-ectopic potentiation of systolic blood pressure, and frequency of supraventricular and ventricular ectopic beats. These risk stratification tests have previously been researched and their dichotomies defining abnormal results have been derived from previous reports. The Polyscore combination was defined as the number of positive tests among these seven risk predictors, giving a numerical scale which ranges from 0 (all tests normal) to 7 (all tests abnormal). The Polyscore was tested in a population of 941 contemporarily treated survivors of acute myocardial infarction (median age 61 years, 182 females) of whom 72 (7.65%) died during a 5-year follow-up. In these patients, all the risk predictors combined in the Polyscore were assessed during in-hospital 30-min simultaneous non-invasive recordings of high-frequency orthogonal electrocardiogram, continuous blood pressure and respiration. Compared to Polyscore 0 stratum, the hazard ratios of mortality during follow-up increased almost exponentially in strata 1 through 7 (vs. stratus 0, the hazard ratios were 1.37, 1.96, 7.03, 15.0, 35.7, 48.2, and 114, in strata 1 to 7, respectively; p < 0.0001). This allowed selecting low-risk (Polyscore ≤ 2), intermediate risk (Polyscore 3 or 4) and high-risk (Polyscore ≥ 5) sub-groups of the population that differed greatly in the Kaplan–Meier probabilities of mortality during follow-up. Since the Polyscore was derived from recordings of only 30-min duration, it can be reasonably applied in different clinical situations including population-wide screening. We can therefore conclude that the Polyscore is a reasonable method for cardiac risk stratification that is ready for prospective validation in future independent studies.

In adult’s burn injuries belong to the top 15 causes of injury. Annually more than a million patients receive specialized treatment. Improving burned patients’ outcomes is still a challenge. Effects of erythropoietin (EPO) are reported to be pro-angiogenic, pro-regenerative, anti-inflammatory, immunomodulatory and hypoxia/ischemia protective. Study objectives were to demonstrate cytoprotective and regenerative effects of EPO in burned patients in terms of improved wound healing, reduced morbidity and mortality. This was a prospective, placebo-controlled, randomized, double-blind trial. The trial was conducted in 13 specialized burn care centers in Germany. Adult Patients with 2b° or 3° burn injuries were included. Patients received state of the art burn care including obligatory split skin graft transplantation. Study medication was EPO or placebo every other day for 21 days. Between 12/08 and 06/14, 116 patients were randomized, 84 received study medication (EPO 45, Placebo 39). Primary endpoint analysis revealed inconclusive results, as only a minority of patients reached the primary endpoint [100% re-epithelialization: EPO: 23% (9/40); Placebo 30% (11/37)]. Several secondary endpoints such as SOFA score (morbidity), EPO level in blood and wound healing onset revealed clinical, and statistically significant results in favor of the EPO group. Adverse Events (AEs) and Severe Adverse Events (SAEs) were in expected ranges; AEs EPO: 80%, (36/45), Placebo: 77%, (30/39); SAEs EPO: 24%, (11/45), Placebo: 24%, (8/39). Out of 84 patients two died, one per group, thus mortality was lower than expected. Results (SOFA score) indicate a lower morbidity of the EPO group, suggesting pro-regenerative effects of EPO in burned patients. Higher EPO levels might influence the faster onset of re-epithelialization in the first 10 days of the treatment. Both effects could reveal new therapeutic options.Clinical Trial Registration: ISRCT Number: ISRCTN95777824 and EudraCT Number: 2006-002886-38, Protocol Number: 0506.

Introduction: Worldwide, incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) have increased over the last decades. We present a systematic epidemiological study with recent prevalence and incidence rates of MS in Bavaria.Methods: Incidence and prevalence of MS stratified by gender, age groups and region were analyzed by data records from 2006 to 2015 of more than 10 million people insured by the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians. Official statistics of the German Federal Ministry of Health provided the size of the general population. Future prevalence was estimated with a predictive model.Results: From 2006 to 2015 prevalence of MS in Bavaria increased from 171 per 100,000 to 277 per 100,000, while incidence rates remained relatively stable (range 16–18 per 100,000 inhabitants with a female to male ratio between 2.4:1 and 2:1). Incidence and prevalence were higher in urban than urbanized and rural areas. The prevalence is expected to increase to 374 per 100,000 in 2040 with the highest prevalence rates between 50 and 65 years.Conclusion: The prevalence of MS in Bavaria is among the highest worldwide and will further rise over the next two decades. This demonstrates a need to strengthen healthcare provision systems due to the increasing numbers of particularly older patients with MS in the future.