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Volcanic unrest at large calderas, led by the complex interaction between the degassing of the shallow magma reservoir and the overlying hydrothermal system, occurs at intervals of 10–100 years. Even if only a minority of bradyseismic crises ends with an eruption, discriminating between pre-eruptive and non-eruptive signals is fundamental for defining levels of alert. Our study explores the possible link between recent episodes of major unrest at the Campi Flegrei caldera, located in the densely inhabited area near the city of Naples (Italy), and the astronomical forcing arising from both lunisolar tides and Earth’s rotation. We analyze seismic data at Mount Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei sites and find significant correlation between the multiyear variation of the seismic energy and the tidal part of the strain, whereas the correlation with the rotational part from polar motion and length-of-day variations is more elusive. The near-zero time-lag between strain and seismicity suggests a rapid response of the seismicity to the excitation. We discuss how our findings are line with previous works evidencing how the decompression of the low-viscosity, mafic magma reservoir results in a rapid release of dissolved volatiles which in turn produces an abrupt acceleration in the Campi Flegrei caldera geochemical and geophysical signals.

Volcano dynamics results from an interplay between internal and external processes spanning different time scales. Unravelling how such processes interact may provide key insights into the mechanisms that may lead to the destabilization of the volcanoes and eruption, a critical information to forecast hazards. Studies dealing with tidal influence on volcanoes fall within this context, yet the cause-effect relationship between tides and eruptions is still poorly understood. In the present study, we investigate the tidal influence on two nearby volcanoes, Ischia and Campi Flegrei (Italy), characterized by intense hydrothermal activity. We analyze the seismic tremor of hydrothermal origin recorded by four seismic stations between January and June 2020 by using Singular Spectrum Analysis. We detect up to five long term tidal periodicities ranging from ∼5 to ∼29 days. The results indicate that the seismic tremor is modulated by Earth tides at both volcanoes. In addition, differences in phase and amplitude modulation between the response of both hydrothermal systems to tidal forcing reveal specific features related to the tremor source and to properties of the surrounding medium. These phenomena indicate an interplay between solid Earth and the dynamics of these two volcanoes. Similar approaches on hydrothermal systems at volcanoes would contribute to better characterize the hydrothermal circulation and their evolving conditions that may represent a precursor of a new phase of activity.

Volcanoes are complex systems whose dynamics is the result of the interplay between endogenous and exogenous processes. External forcing on volcanic activity by seasonal hydrological variations can influence the evolution of a volcanic system; yet the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. In the present study, we analyse ground tilt, seismicity rates and rainfall amount recorded over 6 years (2015–2021) at Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, two volcanic areas located in the south of Italy. The results indicate that at both volcanoes the ground deformation reflects the seasonality of the hydrological cycles, whereas seismicity shows a seasonal pattern only at Campi Flegrei. A correlation analysis on shorter time scales (days) indicates that at Vesuvius rain and ground tilt are poorly correlated, whereas rain and earthquakes are almost uncorrelated. Instead, at Campi Flegrei precipitations can affect not only ground deformation but also earthquake rate, through the combined action of water loading and diffusion processes in a fractured medium, likely fostered by the interaction with the shallow hydrothermal fluids. Our observations indicate a different behavior between the two volcanic systems: at Vesuvius, rain-induced hydrological variations poorly affect the normal background activity. On the contrary, such variations play a role in modulating the dynamics of those metastable volcanoes with significant hydrothermal system experiencing unrest, like Campi Flegrei.

Ground deformation at Campi Flegrei has fuelled a long-term scientific debate about its driving mechanism and its significance in hazard assessment. In an active volcanic system hosting a wide hydrothermal circulation, both magmatic and hydrothermal fluids could be responsible, to variable degrees, for the observed ground displacement. Fast and large uplifts are commonly interpreted in terms of pressure or volume changes associated with magma intrusion, while minor, slower displacement can be related to shallower sources. This work focuses on the deformation history of the last 35 years and shows that ground deformation measured at Campi Flegrei since 1985 is consistent with a poroelastic response of a shallow hydrothermal system to changes in pore pressure and fluid content. The extensive literature available for Campi Flegrei allows constraining system geometry, properties, and conditions. Changes in pore pressure and fluid content necessary to cause the observed deformation can then be calculated based on the linear theory of poroelasticity. The predicted pore pressure evolution and fluid fluxes are plausible and consistent with available measurements and independent estimates.

The calculation of the magnitude of an eruption needs the accurate estimate of its deposit volume. This is particularly critical for ignimbrites as no methods for their volume calculations and associated errors and uncertainties are consolidated in the literature, although invariably the largest magnitude eruptions on Earth are made of ignimbrites. The 39.8 ka Campanian Ignimbrite (CI) eruption is the largest of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). The global cooling following the CI eruption and its widespread tephra affected the paleoenvironment and the migration of hominids in Europe at that time. Despite the large number of studies, the estimates of the Dense Rock Equivalent volume of the CI range between 60 and 300 km3, because of the lack of clear and reproducible methods for its calculation. Here we present a new calculation of the volume of the CI, grounded on a clear and reproducible method that can be applied universally and which provides an accurate estimation of the volume of the deposits on ground and their uncertainties and errors, allowing a strong base for further estimates of the amount of deposits eroded, covered, elutriated, which are essential for the final computation of the eruption magnitude. In order to calculate the CI volume, we reconstructed the first total isopach map of the pyroclastic density current deposit preserved on land, developed through a method that reconstructs the paleo-topography during the eruption, which is reproducible for all topographically controlled ignimbrites and allows the calculation of well-defined uncertainties in the on-land ignimbrite deposits. The preserved total extra-caldera bulk volume of the ignimbrite is estimated at 68.2 ± 6.6 km3. The total pyroclastic density current deposit volume is then corrected for erosion, ash elutriation, the intracaldera deposit volume, and the volume of tephra deposited in the sea, whereas volumes of the basal fallout deposits are taken from other studies. The total Dense Rock Equivalent volume of the eruption is 181–265 km3, whose range accounts for errors and uncertainties. This value corresponds to a mass of 4.7–6.9 × 1014 kg, a magnitude (M) of 7.7–7.8 and a volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 7.

Large volcanic eruptions are frequently triggered by the intrusion of hot primitive magma into a more evolved magma-chamber or -mush zone. During intrusion into the cooler mush zone, the basaltic magma undergoes crystallization, which in turn can release heat and volatiles to the mush. This should cause a drop in bulk mush-viscosity, potentially leading to its mobilization and even eruption. The non-linear changes in the transport properties of both magmas during this interaction also modulate how the magmas accommodate deformation during both interaction and ascent. As such, this interaction represents a complex disequilibrium phenomenon, during which the material properties guiding the processes (dominantly viscosity) are in constant evolution. This scenario highlights the importance of non-isothermal sub-liquidus processes for the understanding of natural magmatic and volcanic systems and underlines the need for a rheological database to inform on, and to model, this interaction process. Here we present new experimental data on the disequilibrium rheology of the least evolved end-member known to be involved in magma mixing and eruption triggering as well as lava flow processes in the Phlegrean volcanic district (PVD). We measure the melt's subliquidus rheological evolution as a function of oxygen fugacity and cooling rate and map systematic shifts in its rheological “cut off temperature; Tcutoff” (i.e., the point where flow ceases). The data show that (1) the rheological evolution and solidification behavior both depend on the imposed cooling-rate, (2) decreasing oxygen fugacity decreases the temperature at which the crystallization onset occurs and modifies the kinetics of melt crystallization and (3) the crystallization kinetics produced under dynamic cooling are significantly different than those observed at or near equilibrium conditions. Based on the experimental data we derive empirical relationships between the environmental parameters and Tcutoff. These empirical descriptions of solidification and flow may be employed in numerical models aiming to model lava flow emplacement or to reconstruct the thermomechanical interaction between basalts and magma mush systems. We further use the experimental data in concert with existing models of particle suspension rheology to derive the disequilibrium crystallization kinetics of the melt and its transition from crystallization to glass formation.

Two machine learning algorithms were applied to three multivariate datasets acquired at Solfatara volcano. Our aim was to find an unbiased and coherent synthesis among the large amount of data acquired within the crater and along two orthogonal vertical NNE- and WNW-trending cross-sections. The first algorithm includes a new approach for a soft K-means clustering based on the use of the silhouette index to control the color palette of the clusters. The second algorithm which uses the self-organizing maps incorporates an alternative method for choosing the number of nodes of the neural network which aims to avoid the need for downstream clustering of the results of the classification. Both methods achieved an objective characterization of the shallow hydrothermal system of the volcano, enhancing and highlighting subtle geophysical anomalies likely correlated to structural pathways of deep magmatic degassing. Comparison between the results of K-means and self-organizing maps on the datasets with the largest number of nodes confirms that, with respect to the K-means, self-organizing maps compress the data in a way that better highlights finer details of the original data. However, the choice of the coloring scheme of the neurons is critical for an effective visualization of the results. Unsupervised integration of the three multivariate datasets allowed us to spatially correlate, with a high-degree of confidence, the geophysical anomalies recorded at the surface of the crater with those recorded at the subsurface along the two cross-sections. it also allowed us to associate those anomalies to different hydrothermal features such as shallow gas-saturated and water-saturated zones and their underlying fractures/faults feeding system. Our results suggest that the main shallow structural patterns, which influence the hydrothermal dynamics at Solfatara volcano, remained substantially unchanged in the last 13 years. Our approach shows that the use of clustering methods to interpret multivariate data reduces interpretation uncertainties and achieves an improved understanding of the complex dynamics occurring in volcanoes.

The magnetotelluric (MT) method is useful for monitoring geophysical processes because of a large dynamic depth range. In this paper, a feasibility study of employing continuous MT observations to monitor hydrothermal systems for both volcanic hazard assessment and geothermal energy exploitation is presented. Sensitivity of the MT method has been studied by simulating spatial and temporal evolution of temperature and gas saturation distributions in a hydrothermal system, and by calculating the MT response at different time steps. Two possible scenarios have been considered: the first is related to an increase in the fluid flow rate at the system source, the second is associated to an increase in the permeability of the rocks hosting the hydrothermal system. Numerical simulations have been performed for each scenario, and the sensitivity of the MT monitoring has been analyzed by evaluating the time interval needed to observe significant variations in the MT response. This study has been applied to the hydrothermal system of the Campi Flegrei (CF; Southern Italy) and it has shown that continuous MT measurements are not sensitive enough to detect a significant increase in the source fluid flow rate over time intervals less than 10 years. On the contrary, if the permeability of the upwelling zone increases, a measurable change in the MT response occurs over a time interval ranging from 6 months to 3 years, depending on the extent of the permeability increase. Such findings are promising and suggest that continuous MT observations in active volcanic areas can be useful for imaging volcano–hydrothermal system activity.

This study presents a new method for producing long-term hazard maps for pyroclastic density currents (PDC) originating at Campi Flegrei caldera. Such method is based on a doubly stochastic approach and is able to combine the uncertainty assessments on the spatial location of the volcanic vent, the size of the flow and the expected time of such an event. The results are obtained by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified invasion model based on the box model integral approximation. Temporal assessments are modeled through a Cox-type process including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Mean and percentile maps of PDC invasion probability are produced, exploring their sensitivity to some sources of uncertainty and to the effects of the dependence between PDC scales and the caldera sector where they originated. Conditional maps representative of PDC originating inside limited zones of the caldera, or of PDC with a limited range of scales are also produced. Finally, the effect of assuming different time windows for the hazard estimates is explored, also including the potential occurrence of a sequence of multiple events. Assuming that the last eruption of Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) marked the beginning of a new epoch of activity similar to the previous ones, results of the statistical analysis indicate a mean probability of PDC invasion above 5% in the next 50 years on almost the entire caldera (with a probability peak of ~25% in the central part of the caldera). In contrast, probability values reduce by a factor of about 3 if the entire eruptive record is considered over the last 15 kyr, i.e., including both eruptive epochs and quiescent periods.