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International audience; Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global changes on the six functional groups, in terms of their epidemiology and of the crop losses they cause. Scenario analysis enables qualitative analysis of complex systems, such as plant pathosystems that are evolving in response to global changes, including climate change and technology shifts. It also provides a useful framework for quantitative simulation modeling analysis for plant disease epidemiology.

Le changement climatique structure la réflexion prospective sur la gestion durable des forêts, ses évolutions et les besoins d’innovation associés. L’Office National des Forêts présente ici une lecture de l’état des connaissances et des questions posées, à partir de laquelle il a défini ses priorités R&D: le travail a porté sur les principaux aspects de la gestion durable dans la définition de la Conférence d’Helsinki ; le contexte d’application est celui des forêts publiques françaises de métropole. Vis-à-vis du changement climatique, différents points de vue peuvent être adoptés : (i) impacts, prévention des risques et gestion des crises ; (ii) adaptation de la gestion ; (iii) contribution à l’atténuation via la production de bois ; (iv) continuité/qualité des services écosystémiques. L’analyse ne fait pas apparaître de contradictions entre ces différents points de vue, en revanche elle montre (i) les opportunités offertes par les innovations liées à la bioéconomie ; (ii) la nécessité de mieux expliciter les objectifs poursuivis (notamment dans la gestion de la biodiversité) ; (iii) l’intérêt de concentrer l’effort de R&D et innovation sur une série de leviers permettant une gestion active et diversifiée des forêts, gage de continuité des services écosystémiques, atténuation des risques et sécurisation des approvisionnements à la filière bois., Climate change is a major driver of sustainable forest management change. In this paper, R&D engineers of the French National Forest Service reviewed several aspects of sustainable forest management in the light of climate change, in order to identify research and innovation priorities. Climate change may be addressed with various points of view: (i) impacts, risk prevention and crisis management; (ii) adaptation of forest management; (iii) contribution to mitigation through wood production and use; (iv) continuity and quality of ecosystem services. The state of the art and ongoing questions were outlined, according to the specific challenges of a public service managing 25% of the mainland forest area, supplying 40% of exchanged timber, and particularly concerned by different national and European policies (forestry-wood chain, climate change, biodiversity conservation, energy transition, natural risk mitigation and prevention, water). The horizon scan did not suggest obvious contradictions between the different points of view. It showed (i) the potential opportunities brought by innovations linked to bioeconomy (bio-based production chains and markets); (ii) the need for a more explicit and integrated statement of management objectives, especially those regarding timber use and conservation of biodiversity; (iii) the impact of concentrating R&D investments and innovations to support an active, diversified forest management, condition for continuously providing high-quality ecosystem services, mitigating risks and securing a sufficient supply to the forest industries.

International audience; The marine context of the Lago Mare deposit near Malaga has received agreement as well as its ascription to the third Lago Mare event of Clauzon et al. (2005). This deposit is not a " transitional unit towards normal marine conditions " but followed the marine reflooding of the Mediterranean Basin, allowing the connection with the Dacic Basin (Eastern Paratethys). We show that this Lago Mare event did not result from a climatic change leading to a dilution episode but from a high sea-level connection. Different interpretations on the respective effects of tectonics and eustatism on the sedimentary archives linked to the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC) are once more debated. They depend on (1) the duration assigned to the MSC and its subdivisions, (2) the amplitude of the successive sea level variations, and at last (3) the dimensional (local or regional) view of the MSC. Such discrepancies concern subsidiary matters which cannot mask first order facts and progresses in their knowledge.

EcoAdapt (www.ecoadapt.eu) is an ambitious, complex and demanding action-research project about water security in a context of climate change. The issues the project deals with are also complex and demanding. A central challenge is how to get the investigators, the project partner Model Forest local teams and the relevant local actors in the territorieson the same page. That is why joint knowledge development and shared learning from different sources and ways of knowing is of such strategic importance in EcoAdapt. Moreover, a viable and sustainable community based response to environmental and climaticchallenges requires a critical mass of motivated, informed and concerted local actors. To make good headway in this direction, an arduous but dynamic process has been set into motion resulting in a growing commitment and capacity building among the local actors in the three EcoAdapt territories. The project’s mini and synthesis workshops were building- and stepping-stones in a continuous path of joint learning and capacity development. In the former events the information captured in the base line study was discussed with the locals actors ,while in the second ones, the interest aroused was capitalized upon to form the change agents groups (an essential aspect of the EcoAdapt strategy) and to respond to the demand of more precise and accessible information, by means of a series of field learning activities. This had some promising outcomes such as contributing to a common interest and growing understanding of water as a central watershed ecosystem; widening of the horizon and view towards watershed and landscape management; strengthening of community drinking water systems with regards to its hardware and software (physical infrastructure, local management and governance); growing cooperation among urban and rural groups or between civil society and policy makers around water issues; creating a link between the legal framework and policy making and the processes on the ground. A spiral of learning took place. As people satisfy their curiosity and initial interest they want to know more and understand better, and they become even more investigative as the activity gets geared towards action and towards helping them achieve their needs and aspirations. Learning does not stop and is clearly evolving in the project with regards to aims, content and methods. This proves to be entirely in line with one of the working hypothesis of the project and also with constructivist theories such as meaningful learning. It has been fundamental and very instrumental to induce the formation of multi actor platforms of change agents in the three territories, through which the field learning activities are organized. These new instances are pivotal in the EcoAdapt learning and organization process by the local project partners: due to a broad representation of local groups and institutions, these platforms get grounded and obtain a growing legitimacy in the territory; they fill a real demand by tackling felt needs for local development around water issues and capitalizing human, institutional and financial opportunities and resources; information is spread and debated; trust and chemistry is built and a common language and vision developed; by lowering barriers between groups and institutions transaction costs are lowered and opportunities are taken advantage of to decrease operational costs and achieve higher effectiveness in ongoing or initial action around water issues and management. Hence it is also very cost effective in economic terms. Climate change adaptation is a variant of risk management to secure water, food and other means of living. Management of climate risks is a millenarian old need and practice, but recent climate change tendencies give it a whole new dimension. Traditional knowledge and practice is a good springboard to climate change adaptation, but new science based information and views must be inserted in what people already know, do and want to change (or conserve) to widen their horizon and action alternatives, and create in this way, a solid 5 base for a viable and shared climate change adaptation plan. In that perspective it is essential that the complex issue of climate change is made transparent, understandable and meaningful. This still remains a great challenge in tactical and didactical terms. The systematized experience so far teaches us that it may be necessary to deviate a bit from the project proposal (“description of work”, or DoW) in order to advance towards the project vision. So, in Climate Change Adaptation for Local Development (the project slogan) the relation between both aims is inter-active.Local development can be a starting point for advancing to climate change adaptation and ecological and social resilience. Close observation shows that the prime mover of action by the local actors has not been so much climate change adaptation but securing clean water in sufficient quality and quantity or satisfying other felt local needs and aspirations. And this is not just a matter of climate- but also of legal stress, and a lack of equity and legitimacy. Hence, the internal learning and systematization has fed also the adaptive project management. Looking backwards and reflecting on it, one gets more clarity on how to go forwards to reach the vision. But therefore it is also important to look out of the EcoAdapt box and combine internal reflection with relevant literature and other cases, in order to get more out of the empirical data and process.Hence, much emphasis was put in this working paper on a relevant literature review, whose results merged in a conceptual flow chart, with the philosophy and strategy of EcoAdapt. In chapter VI Analysis and Synthesis the link is made between this flowchart with the process and outcomes of the field learning activities described in much detail in chapter V. Many promising results were found as well as pending challenges which both are inputs for action and strategy in the next two years: momentum must be maintained, advances consolidated and a qualitative jump forward made. One of the lessons learned is the importance of combining tangibles and intangibles in water management to motivate participation of the local actors and enable their learning, organization and governance towards the desired change. It also shows the added value of EcoAdapt and how it gets the most out of its limited financial means. Learning outcomes must be converted into input for strategic development, scaling out and up, policy debate and policy incidence. There is clear evidence that this process has already begun. Distances between actors diminish; policy makers get more involved; people become more knowledgeable on legal and policy matters and want to influence them or make better use of them; joint practice and understanding of water issues go hand in hand; scales of intervention are combined. Scaling up is of strategic importance because community based environment management has a limited effect and does not make much sense if policy makers do not respond correspondingly. So, in order for intervention to be effective it must occur at different scales and be articulated. Both literature and the project practice confirm this need and possibility. It is also clearly foreseen in the project strategy expressed in the theory of change of the DoW. A next central priority will be to incorporate, intelligently and tactically, the planned scenarios and measures of climate change adaptation within the activities and processes already in march in the three sites and organized around perceived local needs and opportunities, while at the same time doing the inverse - insert the ongoing activities in a broader framework. A related central challenge in this perspective will be to stimulate in the coming years, a fruitful debate and clarity on water governance and conflict management in a context of growing water scarcity due to the effects of climate change and other stressors. A debate on ‘’hotter issues’’ is quite feasible as more trust, chemistry and cooperation is built around non conflictive issues during start up activities, like what is going on at the moment. 6 As the literature shows, in the history of humankind, water scarcity does not necessarily lead to conflict and often has been a base for cooperation, social organization and synergy, depending on the rules of the game and the governance institutions in place and functioning. This will become an increasingly important issue in light of viable and robust adaptation plans to be made in the three sites in the course of 2014-2015.

This paper investigates under which conditions implementation of Industry 4.0 in the hospitality sector could help to combat climate change. The paper takes the form of a systematic literature review to examine the main pillars of Industry 4.0 in the hospitality industry and discuss how these technologies could help combat climate change. We propose five conditions under which Industry 4.0 could help to combat climate change. First, in the hospitality industry, increased use of Industry 4.0 technologies induces an increase in energy efficiency and a reduction of GHG. Second, increased use of Industry 4.0 technologies induces a reduction in water consumption and an increase in water use efficiency. Third, increased use of Industry 4.0 technologies induces a reduction in food waste. Fourth, increased use of Industry 4.0 technologies can promote Circular Hospitality 4.0. Fifth, increased use of Industry 4.0 technologies helps to reduce transport and travel. Hospitality Industry 4.0 technologies offer new opportunities for enhancing sustainable development and reducing GHG emissions through the use of environmentally friendly approaches to achieve the Paris Agreement objectives.

BACKGROUND: This dataset relates to the biodiversity census carried out during the Belgica 121 (B121) expedition to the Western Antarctic Peninsula from February to March 2019. One of the aims of the campaign was to explore the surroundings of the Gerlache Strait and to carry out a detailed biodiversity census focusing on inter- and subtidal shallow-water areas using both classic descriptive marine ecology methods, as well as state-of-the art techniques (habitat mapping, genetics, trophic ecology). The biodiversity census was carried out onboard a nimble research vessel, RV Australis. This dataset will offer access to the raw data on biodiversity occurrences, obtained using a range of methods described in this data paper. NEW INFORMATION: New raw biodiversity data for a poorly-sampled region (Western Antarctic Peninsula) with a special focus on shallow ecosystems. ispartof: BIODIVERSITY DATA JOURNAL vol:9 ispartof: location:Bulgaria status: published

Background Scarcity of data on the health impacts and associated economic costs of heat waves may limit the will to invest in adaptation measures. We assessed the economic impact associated with mortality, morbidity, and loss of well-being during heat waves in France between 2015 and 2019. Methods Health indicators monitored by the French national heat wave plan were used to estimate excess visits to emergency rooms and outpatient clinics and hospitalizations for heat-related causes. Total excess mortality and years of life loss were considered, as well as the size of the population that experienced restricted activity. A cost-of-illness and willingness-to-pay approach was used to account for associated costs. Results Between 2015 and 2019, the economic impact of selected health effects of heat waves amounts to €25.5 billion, mainly in mortality (€23.2 billion), minor restricted activity days (€2.3 billion), and morbidity (€0.031 billion). Conclusion The results highlight a significant economic burden on the French health system and the population. A better understanding of the economic impacts of climate change on health is required to alert decision-makers to the urgency of mitigation and to support concrete adaptation actions. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10198-021-01357-2.

Adapting agriculture to climate change is driving the need for the selection and breeding of drought-tolerant crops. The aim of this study was to identify key drought tolerance traits and determine the sequence of their water potential thresholds across three grapevine cultivars with contrasting water use behaviors, Grenache, Syrah, and Semillon. We quantified differences in water use between cultivars and combined this with the determination of other leaf-level traits (e.g. leaf turgor loss point, π TLP), leaf vulnerability to embolism (P50), and the hydraulic safety margin (HSM P50). Semillon exhibited the highest maximum transpiration (Emax), and lowest sensitivity of canopy stomatal conductance (Gc) to vapor pressure deficit (VPD), followed by Syrah and Grenache. Increasing Emax was correlated with more negative water potential at which stomata close (Pgs90), π TLP, and P50, suggesting that increasing water use is associated with hydraulic traits allowing gas exchange under more negative water potentials. Nevertheless, all the cultivars closed their stomata prior to leaf embolism formation. Modeling simulations demonstrated that despite a narrower HSM, Grenache takes longer to reach thresholds of hydraulic failure due to its conservative water use. This study demonstrates that the relationships between leaf hydraulic traits are complex and interactive, stressing the importance of integrating multiple traits in characterizing drought tolerance., The relationships between traits including stomatal regulation, leaf embolism thresholds, and survival time under drought are complex and interactive, stressing the importance of integrating multiple traits in characterizing drought tolerance.

Review of grapevine drought responses and the search for drought-tolerant varieties that can increase the sustainability of viticulture in the context of climate change., Water availability is arguably the most important environmental factor limiting crop growth and productivity. Erratic precipitation patterns and increased temperatures resulting from climate change will likely make drought events more frequent in many regions, increasing the demand on freshwater resources and creating major challenges for agriculture. Addressing these challenges through increased irrigation is not always a sustainable solution so there is a growing need to identify and/or breed drought-tolerant crop varieties in order to maintain sustainability in the context of climate change. Grapevine (Vitis vinifera), a major fruit crop of economic importance, has emerged as a model perennial fruit crop for the study of drought tolerance. This review synthesizes the most recent results on grapevine drought responses, the impact of water deficit on fruit yield and composition, and the identification of drought-tolerant varieties. Given the existing gaps in our knowledge of the mechanisms underlying grapevine drought responses, we aim to answer the following question: how can we move towards a more integrative definition of grapevine drought tolerance?

Extreme climatic events (ECEs) such as droughts and heat waves affect ecosystem functioning and species turnover. This study investigated the effect of elevated CO2 on species’ resilience to ECEs. Monoliths of intact soil and their plant communities from an upland grassland were exposed to 2050 climate scenarios with or without an ECE under ambient (390 ppm) or elevated (520 ppm) CO2. Ecophysiological traits of two perennial grasses (Dactylis glomerata and Holcus lanatus) were measured before, during, and after ECE. At similar soil water content, leaf elongation was greater under elevated CO2 for both species. The resilience of D. glomerata increased under enhanced CO2 (+60%) whereas H. lanatus mostly died during ECE. D. glomerata accumulated 30% more fructans, which were more highly polymerized, and 4-fold less sucrose than H. lanatus. The fructan concentration in leaf meristems was significantly increased under elevated CO2. Their relative abundance changed during the ECE, resulting in a more polymerized assemblage in H. lanatus and a more depolymerized assemblage in D. glomerata. The ratio of low degree of polymerization fructans to sucrose in leaf meristems was the best predictor of resilience across species. This study underlines the role of carbohydrate metabolism and the species-dependent effect of elevated CO2 on the resilience of grasses to ECE., The contrasting resilience of two perennial grasses under future climate scenarios was associated with carbohydrate metabolism, such as fructan polymerization in leaf meristems, that could contribute to plant dehydration tolerance.

Highlights Drought tolerance in the M4 grapevine rootstock genotype could be associated with a higher capability to counteract oxidative stresses by enhancing the accumulation of resveratrol in roots., In light of ongoing climate changes in wine-growing regions, the selection of drought-tolerant rootstocks is becoming a crucial factor for developing a sustainable viticulture. In this study, M4, a new rootstock genotype that shows tolerance to drought, was compared from a genomic and transcriptomic point of view with the less drought-tolerant genotype 101.14. The root and leaf transcriptome of both 101.14 and the M4 rootstock genotype was analysed, following exposure to progressive drought conditions. Multifactorial analyses indicated that stress treatment represents the main factor driving differential gene expression in roots, whereas in leaves the genotype is the prominent factor. Upon stress, M4 roots and leaves showed a higher induction of resveratrol and flavonoid biosynthetic genes, respectively. The higher expression of VvSTS genes in M4, confirmed by the accumulation of higher levels of resveratrol in M4 roots compared with 101.14, was coupled to an up-regulation of several VvWRKY transcription factors. Interestingly, VvSTS promoter analyses performed on both the resequenced genomes highlighted a significantly higher number of W-BOX elements in the tolerant genotype. It is proposed that the elevated synthesis of resveratrol in M4 roots upon water stress could enhance the plant’s ability to cope with the oxidative stress usually associated with water deficit.

Highlight Night and day warming combined with drought affect wood anatomy and survival, reflecting the importance of carbon–water relations for the survival process in Picea mariana saplings., Warming and drought will occur with increased frequency and intensity at high latitudes in the future. How heat and water stress can influence tree mortality is incompletely understood. The aim of this study was to evaluate how carbon resources, stem hydraulics, and wood anatomy and density determine the ability of black spruce saplings to survive daytime or night-time warming (+ 6 °C in comparison with control) in combination with a drought period. Plant water relations, the dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates and starch, mortality rate, and wood anatomy and density of saplings were monitored. Warming, in conjunction with 25 d of water deficit, increased sapling mortality (10% and 20% in night-time and daytime warming, respectively) compared with the control conditions (0.8%). Drought substantially decreased gas exchange, and also pre-dawn and mid-day leaf water potential to values close to –3MPa which probably induced xylem embolism (xylem air entry point, P 12, being on average around –3MPa for this species). In addition, the recovery of gas exchange never reached the initial pre-stress levels, suggesting a possible loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity associated with cavitation. Consequently, mortality may be due to xylem hydraulic failure. Warmer temperatures limited the replenishment of starch reserves after their seasonal minimum. Lighter wood was formed during the drought period, reflecting a lower carbon allocation to cell wall formation, preventing the adaptation of the hydraulic system to drought. Saplings of black spruce experienced difficulty in adapting under climate change conditions, which might compromise their survival in the future.

International audience; To meet the increasing demand of wood biomass worldwide in the context of climate change, developing improved forest tree varieties for high productivity in water-limited conditions is becoming a major issue. This involves breeding for genotypes combining high growth and moderate water loss and thus high water-use efficiency (WUE). The present work provides original data about the genetics of intrinsic WUE (the ratio between net CO2 assimilation rate and stomatal conductance, also estimated by carbon isotope composition of plant material; delta C-13) and its relation to growth in Pinus pinaster Ait. First, heritability for delta C-13 was estimated (0.29) using a 15-year-old progeny trial (Landes provenance), with no significant differences among three sites contrasting in water availability. High intersite correlations (0.63-0.91) and significant but low genotype-environment interactions were detected. Secondly, the genetic architectures of delta C-13 and growth were studied in a three-generation inbred pedigree, introducing the genetic background of a more-drought-adapted parent (Corsican provenance), at ages of 2 years (greenhouse) and 9 years (plantation). One of the quantitative trait loci (QTLs) identified in the field experiment, explaining 67% of the phenotypic variance, was also found among the QTLs detected in the greenhouse experiment, where it colocalized with QTLs for intrinsic WUE and stomatal conductance. This work was able to show that higher WUE was not genetically linked to less growth, allowing thus genetic improvement of water use. As far as is known, the heritability and QTL effects estimated here are based on the highest number of genotypes measured to date.

International audience; We review known and hypothesized effects of nitrogen (N) deposition owing to human activities on the chemistry, organisms, and ecosystem processes of remote oligotrophic freshwaters. Acidification is the best-known effect of N deposition on water chemistry, but additional effects include increased nutrient availability and alteration of the balance between N and other nutrients. Our synthesis of the literature, framed in a comprehensive model for the effects of N deposition on natural ecosystems, shows that all these effects can reduce biological diversity and alter ecosystem processes in remote freshwaters. N deposition is projected to grow worldwide in the near future and will interact with other global changes. Present effects on these fragile ecosystems may be only early signs of more radical impacts ahead.

International audience; Whereas the consequences of global warming at population or community levels are well documented, studies at the cellular level are still scarce. The study of the physiological or metabolic effects of such small increases in temperature (between +2 degrees C and +6 degrees C) is difficult because they are below the amplitude of the daily or seasonal thermal variations occurring in most environments. In contrast, subterranean biotopes are highly thermally buffered (+/-1 degrees C within a year), and underground water organisms could thus be particularly well suited to characterise cellular responses of global warming. To this purpose, we studied genes encoding chaperone proteins of the HSP70 family in amphipod crustaceans belonging to the ubiquitous subterranean genus Niphargus. An HSP70 sequence was identified in eight populations of two complexes of species of the Niphargus genus (Niphargus rhenorhodanensis and Niphargus virei complexes). Expression profiles were determined for one of these by reverse transcription and quantitative polymerase chain reaction, confirming the inducible nature of this gene. An increase in temperature of 2 degrees C seemed to be without effect on N. rhenorhodanensis physiology, whereas a heat shock of +6 degrees C represented an important thermal stress for these individuals. Thus, this study shows that although Niphargus individuals do not undergo any daily or seasonal thermal variations in underground water, they display an inducible HSP70 heat shock response. This controlled laboratory-based physiological experiment constitutes a first step towards field investigations of the cellular consequences of global warming on subterranean organisms.

International audience; Highlights:This paper reviews ways to improve water use efficiency beyond the plant level, across time and space scales, from cells, organs, and plants, to field, farm, and landscape.Abstract:Water scarcity will be one of the main issues of the 21 st century, because of competing needs between civil, industrial, and agriculture use. While agriculture is the largest user of water, its share is bound to decrease as societies develop. Clearly, agriculture needs to become more water efficient. Improving water use efficiency (WUE) at the plant level is important although there is a long way into translating this at the farm/landscape level. As we move up from a cell/organ/plant scale to more integrated scales such as plot, field, farm system, and landscape, other factors need to be considered, including trade-offs, to possibly improve WUE. These include choices of crop variety/species, farm management, landscape design, infrastructure development, ecosystem functions, where human decisions matter. This review is a cross-disciplinary attempt to analyze ways to address WUE at these different scales where metrics of analysis are defined and trade-offs considered. The equations in this perspective paper use similar metrics across scales for an easier connection and are developed to highlight which levers, at different scales, can improve WUE. We also refer to models operating at these different scales to assess WUE. While our entry point is plants and crops, we scale up the analysis of WUE to farm systems and landscapes.

The last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science of estimating the influence of human activities or other factors on the probability and other characteristics of an observed extreme weather or climate event. This is driven by public interest, but also has practical applications in decision-making after the event and for raising awareness of current and future climate change impacts. The World Weather Attribution (WWA) collaboration has over the last 5 years developed a methodology to answer these questions in a scientifically rigorous way in the immediate wake of the event when the information is most in demand. This methodology has been developed in the practice of investigating the role of climate change in two dozen extreme events world-wide. In this paper, we highlight the lessons learned through this experience. The methodology itself is documented in a more extensive companion paper. It covers all steps in the attribution process: the event choice and definition, collecting and assessing observations and estimating probability and trends from these, climate model evaluation, estimating modelled hazard trends and their significance, synthesis of the attribution of the hazard, assessment of trends in vulnerability and exposure, and communication. Here, we discuss how each of these steps entails choices that may affect the results, the common problems that can occur and how robust conclusions can (or cannot) be derived from the analysis. Some of these developments also apply to other attribution methodologies and indeed to other problems in climate science.

Scientific research has shown that there is a direct relationship between global warming and the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases. As far as European countries are concerned, the development of renewable electricity production and the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are two main tools for reducing CO2 emissions and dealing with climate change. The main objective of this doctoral research project is to identify the explanatory factors for CO2 emissions and to explore how the main tools mentioned above can help reduce emissions at French and European level. The central research question of the dissertation consists of four sub-questions, each addressed in one scientific article.The first article evaluates the effectiveness of the first three phases (2005-2019) of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) in reducing fossil fuel CO2 emissions in 248 socio-economic regions from 25 EU ETS Member States. Considering the beginning of each phase as an intervention, the paper adopts an advanced predictive modeling framework to build counterfactual fossil fuel CO2 emissions for each post-intervention period, and analyzes, in time and space, the intervention effect by comparing actual emissions with counterfactual estimates.The second article examines the predictive impact of climate conditions and electricity demand on hourly spot prices of emissions allowances during the first three phases of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) (2005-2019). An original methodology is proposed for constructing European-scale electricity demand and climate indices, and the relationship between those indices and emissions allowances prices is characterized by means of an advanced predictive modeling technique (Extreme Gradient Boosting). The paper contributes to the growing body of literature on the structural determinants of carbon prices in the EU ETS and enhances our understanding of the impact of climate variability-in the provision of renewable energy production-on the most prominent market-based measure to reduce CO2 emissions in Europe.By means of a cutting-edge machine learning-based modeling technique, the third article characterizes the predictive impact of electricity generation from climate-related renewable energy (CRE) sources (wind, solar photovoltaics, and small-scale run-of-river hydroelectricity) on CO2 emissions in the French electric power sector over the 2013-2021 period. The study also identifies the optimal mix of CRE sources for minimizing predicted emissions under four counterfactual scenarios of increased CRE production. The findings of this paper have two major implications for renewable energy development and management in France. First, they provide fresh quantifiable evidence on the conceptual premise that replacing carbon-intensive energy sources with renewable ones reduces CO2 emissions from electricity generation. Second, they cast a new light on the relative importance of each CRE source with regard to emissions reduction in the electricity sector.The fourth article sets out a state-of-the-art interdisciplinary machine learning-based framework for characterizing the impact of climate conditions on hourly CO2 emissions in the French electric power system from January 2013 to December 2020. The findings of this research should make an important contribution to the literature on driving factors for CO2 emissions in the electricity sector, and can provide insight into the sensitivity of power-related emissions to climate change.Overall, this doctoral project contributes to the literature on the environmental effectiveness of two main tools to reduce CO2 emissions and cope with climate change in Europe, namely electricity generation from renewable sources and the European Union Emissions Trading System, as well as the literature on explicative factors behind such emissions.; La recherche scientifique a montré qu'il existe une relation directe entre le réchauffement climatique et l'émission de carbone et d'autres gaz à effet de serre. En ce qui concerne les pays européens, le développement de la production d'énergie électrique à partir des sources renouvelables et le système d'échange de quotas d'émission de l'Union européenne (EU ETS pour son abréviation en anglais) sont deux outils importants pour réduire les émissions de dioxyde de carbone (CO2) et faire face au changement climatique. L'objectif principal de ce projet de recherche doctoral est d'identifier les facteurs explicatifs des émissions de CO2 et d'explorer comment les principaux outils cités ci-dessus peuvent aider à réduire les émissions au niveau français et européen. La problématique centrale de la thèse consiste en quatre sous-questions de recherche, chacune abordée dans un article scientifique.Le premier article évalue l'efficacité environnementale des trois premières phases (2005-2019) de l'EU ETS pour réduire les émissions de CO2 dans 248 régions socio-économiques des États membres de ce système. Considérant le début de chaque phase comme une intervention, cet article adopte une approche de modélisation prédictive avancée pour construire des émissions de CO2 contrefactuelles pour chaque période post-intervention, et analyse, dans le temps et dans l'espace, l'effet de l'intervention en comparant les émissions réalisées avec des estimations contrefactuelles.Le deuxième article examine l'impact prédictif des conditions climatiques et de la demande d'électricité sur les prix spot horaires des quotas d'émission au cours des trois premières phases du système d'échange de quotas d'émission de l'Union européenne (2005-2019). Cette étude propose une méthodologie originale pour construire des indices de demande d'électricité et de climat à l'échelle européenne, et caractérise la relation entre ces indices et les prix des quotas d'émission. Cet article contribue à la littérature croissante sur les déterminants structurels des prix du carbone dans l'EU ETS et améliore notre compréhension de l'impact de la variabilité climatique sur la mesure de marché la plus importante pour réduire les émissions de CO2 en Europe.Le troisième article répond à la question : « Compte tenu d'une augmentation ou d'une diminution de la production d'énergie renouvelable en France, quelle serait l'évolution prévue des émissions dans le secteur de l'électricité ? » et identifie la part optimale de chaque source dans le mix énergétique renouvelable pour minimiser les émissions prévues dans le secteur de l'électricité dans un scénario de production d'électricité renouvelable plus élevée en France sur la période 2013-2021.Le quatrième article adopte une approche interdisciplinaire de pointe basée sur l'apprentissage automatique pour caractériser l'impact des conditions climatiques sur les émissions horaires de CO2 dans le système électrique français de janvier 2013 à décembre 2020. Les résultats de cet article devraient apporter une contribution importante à la littérature sur les facteurs déterminants des émissions de CO2 dans le secteur de l'électricité et peuvent donner un aperçu de la sensibilité des émissions liées à l'énergie au changement climatique.Dans l'ensemble, cette thèse contribue à la littérature sur l'efficacité environnementale de deux principaux outils pour réduire les émissions de CO2 et faire face au changement climatique, c'est-à-dire la production d'énergie électrique à partir des sources renouvelables et le système d'échange de quotas d'émission de l'Union européenne, ainsi que les facteurs explicatifs de ces émissions en Europe.

International audience; Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change and climate extremes in part because they concentrate many activities, people and wealth in limited areas. As a result they represent an important scale for assessment and understanding of climate change impacts. This paper provides a conceptual and methodological framework for urban economic impact assessment of climate change. The focus of the paper is on model-based analysis of future scenarios, including a framing of uncertainty for these projections, as one valuable input into the decision-making process. The paper highlights the main assessment difficulties, methods and tools, and selected examples across these areas. A number of challenges are unique to climate change impact assessment and others are unique to the problem of working at local scales. The paper also identifies the need for additional research, including the need for more integrated and systemic approaches to address climate change as a part of the urban development challenge as well as the need to assess the economic impacts of climate change and response policy at local scale.

International audience; Projected changes in precipitation extremes and their uncertainties are evaluated using an ensemble of global climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). They are scaled by corresponding changes either in global mean surface temperature (ΔGSAT) or in local surface temperature (ΔT) and are expressed in terms of 20-yr return values (RV20) of annual maximum one-day precipitation. Our main objective is to quantify the model response uncertainty and to highlight the regions where changes may not be consistent with the widely used assumption of a Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate of ≈7%/K. When using a single realization for each model, as in the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the assessed inter-model spread includes both model uncertainty and internal variability, which can be however assessed separately using a large ensemble. Despite the overestimated inter-model spread, our results show a robust enhancement of extreme precipitation with more than 90% of models simulating an increase of RV20. Moreover, this increase is consistent with the CC rate of ≈7%/K over about 83% of the global land domain when scaled by (ΔGSAT). Our results also advocate for producing multiple single model initial condition ensembles in the next CMIP projections, to better filter internal variability out in estimating the response of extreme events.

Approximately 10 years ago, convection-permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) emerged as a promising computationally affordable tool to produce fine resolution (1-4 km) decadal-long climate simulations with explicitly resolved deep convection. This explicit representation is expected to reduce climate projection uncertainty related to deep convection parameterizations found in most climate models. A recent surge in CPRCM decadal simulations over larger domains, sometimes covering continents, has led to important insights into CPRCM advantages and limitations. Furthermore, new observational gridded datasets with fine spatial and temporal (similar to 1 km; similar to 1 h) resolutions have leveraged additional knowledge through evaluations of the added value of CPRCMs. With an improved coordination in the frame of ongoing international initiatives, the production of ensembles of CPRCM simulations is expected to provide more robust climate projections and a better identification of their associated uncertainties. This review paper presents an overview of the methodology to produce CPRCM simulations and the latest research on the related added value in current and future climates. Impact studies that are already taking advantage of these new CPRCM simulations are highlighted. This review paper ends by proposing next steps that could be accomplished to continue exploiting the full potential of CPRCMs. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Earth System Models

International audience; The increasing impacts of climate change, coupled with the Greta Thunberg effect, the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, and varied environmental policy documents, are pointing to the need for urgent and cohesive climate action and mitigation frameworks. One potent solution, gaining global acceptance, is that of the Green New Deal (GND), positioned as a radical rethinking of political and economic structures in view of pushing sustainability at the forefront of national, regional, and global issues. With the model rapidly gaining ground in various geographies, and in different forms in view of contextualization needs, there is a need to better understand its evolution, knowledge structures, and trends. This paper thus sets forth to provide an understanding of the evolution and implementation of GND through a bibliometric analysis and science mapping techniques using VOSviewer and CiteSpace to identify the thematic focus of 1174 articles indexed in the Web of Science since 1995. To understand the thematic evolution of the field over time, we divided the study period into three sub-periods, namely 1995–2014, 2015–2019, and 2020–2021. These sub-periods were determined considering important milestones related to GNDs. Term co-occurrence analyses were then conducted to understand thematic focus and associated trends. Also, co-citation analysis and bibliographic coupling were other methods applied to identify major sources, authors, publications, and countries that have made more contributions to the development of research on GNDs. The findings of this paper can help both researchers and policy makers understand the evolution and trends of GNDs to better formulate GNDs strategies and policies in accordance with varying needs and geographies.

Estimating the risk of forest collapse due to extreme climate events is one of the challenges of adapting to climate change. We adapt a concept from ruin theory, which is widely used in econometrics and the insurance industry, to design a growth–ruin model for trees which accounts for climate hazards that can jeopardize tree growth. This model is an elaboration of a classical Cramer–Lundberg ruin model that is used in the insurance industry. The model accounts for the interactions between physiological parameters of trees and the occurrence of climate hazards. The physiological parameters describe interannual growth rates and how trees react to hazards. The hazard parameters describe the probability distributions of the occurrence and intensity of climate events. We focus on a drought–heatwave hazard. The goal of the paper is to determine the dependence of the forest ruin and average growth probability distributions on physiological and hazard parameters. Using extensive Monte Carlo experiments, we show the existence of a threshold in the frequency of hazards beyond which forest ruin becomes certain to occur within a centennial horizon. We also detect a small effect of the strategies used to cope with hazards. This paper is a proof of concept for the quantification of forest collapse under climate change.

International audience; The concept of energy transition is used to describe the evolution of energy systems, but the spatial aspects of those changes are not always considered. This is what this paper intends to do, using Latin America as a case study. In a first step, the paper insists on the importance on inherited energy systems, shaped throughout the 20 th Century, in line with the strengthening of States and public companies. Those systems have been able to bring a wide coverage of energy services in Latin American Countries. The article then moves to the changes that might contribute to an energy transition and a reduction of GHG emission. It shows that in spite of abundant resources for renewable energies and pioneer initiatives, energy transition in still limited. Finally, the paper points out some of the conditions for an energy transition adapted to the Latin American context.; La notion de transition énergétique est mobilisée pour décrire les évolutions des systèmes énergétiques sans toujours prendre en compte leur dimension territoriale. C'est ce que propose cet article en prenant l'Amérique Latine comme cas d'étude. Dans un premier temps il insiste sur le poids des héritages qui ont façonné les systèmes énergétiques du continent au XXe siècle en lien avec l'affirmation des Etats et des compagnies publiques pour fournir une couverture large de services énergétiques. Dans un second temps, l'article analyse les projets pouvant contribuer à une transition énergétique et à une réduction des émissions de GES. Il montre qu'en dépit de ressources abondantes pour les énergies renouvelables et de programmes pionniers, la transition reste encore limitée. Enfin, les conditions d'une transition énergétique adaptée au contexte latino-américain sont présentées Mots clés : Transition énergétique, changement climatique, politiques publiques, énergies renouvelables, territoires.

International audience; Infrastructure assets are essential components to the economical development of modern societies. They are designed to ensure target levels of serviceability and safety on the basis on past experiences and current knowledge on design, construction and maintenance practices. However, changes in climate could modify the lifetime performance of infrastructure by increasing or decreasing failure risks. Therefore, a rational and scientific approach is necessary to deal with the adaptation of existing and new deteriorating infrastructure in a comprehensive way. This keynote paper provides an overview of recent works on this area including: (i) assessment of climate change effects, (ii) adaptation to new environmental conditions for future climate change scenarios and (iii) decision-making under a changing climate. Several examples for different kind of deteriorating infrastructure assets are also presented and discussed in this paper.

Ever since the creation of the WTO, attempts at bringing together the trade and climate regime have failed. This paper reviews attempts at reducing tariffs on products classified as Environmental Goods (EGs), causes of failure in past attempts, and suggests requirements for a meaningful agenda in future attempts. The start is the failure at the negotiations on the Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA) negotiations started in 2014 and abandoned in 2016. Discussion on prospects is around elements that would enter 'EGA-STyle' (EGAST) negotiations among a small group of countries. The paper starts with new descriptive data on the inclusion of provisions in Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) across the world encouraging trade in EGs. However, the presence of these provisions in RTAs has not been reflected in increased bilateral trade in EGs among RTA members, confirming the relevance of continuing to revive momentum to reduce barriers to trade in EGs. Discussion of reasons for failure at the EGA (and earlier at the Doha Round) follow. An EGAST agenda should go beyond the elimination of ‘nuisance tariffs’ to include high energy-efficiency EGs and high-tariff products. The EG list should also include Environmentally Preferable Products. As to the difficult-to-detect Non-tariff Barriers (e.g. non-tariff measures), among which some are protectionist in intent, they should be included in the agenda up for mutual recognition. The paper concludes that EGAST negotiations to reduce barriers to trade in EGs would still be a promising avenue for rapprochement between the trade and climate regimes.

International audience; The purpose of this paper is to clarify the magnitude of the climate challenge we face globally and the role that the four largest greenhouse gas emitters – China, the U.S.A., the European Union and India – could potentially play, if they decided on a “deep collaboration”. As stated in IPCC’s 1.5°C report, the challenge is indeed to bring global emissions down to a level where they could be compensated for by anthropogenic carbon capture from the atmosphere. In this paper, we focus on the abatement of CO2 emissions as they represent two thirds of total GHG emissions3. By doing so, we recognise that confining our data to CO2 ignores other important gases (methane, nitrous oxides, fluorinated gases) and their emission dynamics.The paper proceeds along three stages. In section 2. “Where we stand, a global view”, we recall the dynamics of atmospheric concentrations for two major GHGs, CO2 and methane. In section 3. “Looking back”, we analyse in more detail the trends and bifurcations in the emissions for each of the four constituencies we are considering. Finally, in section 4. “Where we need to go”, we analyse for the same constituencies representative scenarios that will allow us to contrast current developments with more constrained trajectories meeting the Paris commitments and, further on, net zero ambitions.

International audience; Globally, tourism is being deeply impacted by glacial retreat caused by climate change. However, research on stakeholders’ adaptation to climatic change and its threat to the industry on tourism niche is currently inadequate. Thus, through a literature review of 61 glacier peer-reviewed papers, this paper highlights the advancement in research on glacier tourism and provides some basis for understanding stakeholders’ adaptation strategies to climate change. The review shows that glacier tourism research publications increased between 2015 and 2020. It also identifies some impacts of climate change on the glacier tourism industry as well as 27 adaptation strategies to climatic change, which are classified under seven main themes: changes to access, activities, tourism planning, educational activities, temporal substitutions, spatial substitutions, and glacier shrinkage attenuation. We discuss the relevance of the resilience concept in the tourism industry and recommend that tourists’ experiences should be enhanced by applying the findings of research on tourists’ motivations and landscape perception and developing more adaptation-oriented research. The findings suggest that the glacier tourism industry can reduce its vulnerability to climate change through increased collaboration between tourism operators and climate and tourism researchers.

International audience; The need to ensure freshwater security remains sacrosanct to the survival and security of humanity. While various studies on water security continue to draw the world's attention to future threats and risks against humanity's better survival and security-following the current management of our various waterways. It is in this light that this paper proposes to explain why access to water may well be a major stake of conflicts in this 21st century. After debate and discussion, the results that emerge from this paper show that the multiplication of threats arising from climate change, which continues to worsen in this century, coupled with the hybrid policies and activities of various actors at stake, and combined with the singular characteristics of water-including, notably, a resource that guarantees our existence, a scarce resource, an unevenly distributed resource, and a resource that is shared among several states, nationalities and social categories-emerge two fundamental implications. The first is that of the great need for cooperation between riparian states, nationalities and various social categories; and the second is that exhibits the great likelihood of conflicts between them-to the competing uses of the shared water resource and the conquering spirits of one another. By using a few cases of bellicose rhetoric on the Tigris-Euphrates, Jordan, Indus, Syr-Daria, Nile, Congo, Colorado and Rio Grande watersheds, this paper makes a bitter observation of the predominant tendency of the second implication-the conflictual one-over the first-the cooperative one-in this twenty-first century that ostensibly denotes that water should be taken seriously as a major stake of conflicts in this century. Thus, this paper considers that it is important and time for humanity to promote transboundary water cooperation between states and nationalities of shared river basins; and integrated water management in the steps of good governance at all levels, in the sense of avoiding a flare-up of the situation and limiting to the maximum a worsening where the violins do not agree anymore.

Actinobacteria are important bacterial group participating in various ecosystem processes particularly in the decomposition of complex organic compounds. Their abilities enable them to surviving in harsh conditions of oligotrophic habitats like lakes, deserts, cave walls or recalcitrant and resistant litter in soil, where Actinobacteria often dominate. Although certain biotic and abiotic factors were recognized to modulate Actinobacteria incidence in such habitats, the influence of anthropogenic pressure on their communities is scarcely known. The main objective of this thesis is therefore to determine differences of Actinobacteria communities under the direct (the human visitors changing microenvironment of caves, part 1) and indirect (climate change factors like altered precipitation or plant litter quality, part 2) anthropogenic influence in two habitats, plant litter in soil and cave walls, where Actinobacteria play important roles and dominate. In a first part of the thesis we monitored Actinobacteria communities in French limestone caves walls differently affected by humans (pristine versus anthropized caves). For identification of important species like potential pathogens or pigments producing Actinobacteria using amplicon sequencing of environmental DNA (Illumina MiSeq), we firstly used a molecular marker gene hsp65 coding for heat shock protein specific for Actinobacteria. Special attention was payed to anthropogenically most affected Lascaux Cave with Paleolithic paintings. There, a comparison of different rooms differently affected by a human-derived intervention as well as between visual dark marks and unmarked areas on the wall paintings were compared (paper I). In the second part, we monitored litter Actinobacteria communities during a decomposition process under manipulated precipitation (paper IV), on different litter type, quality and origin (papers II, III, IV) in different forests including Mediterranean oak and pine forests (paper IV), mountainous spruce and beech forests (paper III), a beech temperate forest (paper II)) and also one grassland (paper II). Our results show that Actinobacteria communities were strongly dependent to anthropized/pristine status of caves (Part 1) as well as climatic and litter quality changes during the decomposition (Part 2). In caves (Part 1), Actinobacteria community structure indicated the anthropogenic disturbance, because typical pristine and anthropogenic taxa identified according to the hsp65 marker were recovered in relation to an anthropization status (paper I). During decomposition (part 2), we found that Actinobacteria were i) affected by litter type regardless its origin but their dominance on recalcitrant litter type did not result in faster decomposition (papers II, III, IV), ii) not directly affected by climatic conditions (paper III, IV) but were site-specific (papers II, III, IV) with a potential to dominate introduced coniferous forests (papers III, IV), and iii) in decomposition process had opposite strategies to fungi, since were influenced by different conditions than fungi (papers II, III, IV). Overall, Actinobacteria respond to anthropogenic pressure on a community and species level and are also able to adapt to harsh conditions and thus, these changes leading to Actinobacteria persistence in ecosystems., Les actinobactéries sont un groupe bactérien important participant dans plusieurs processus écosystémiques comme la décomposition de composés organiques. Les actinobactéries possèdent des nombreuses capacités leur permettant de survivre dans des conditions difficiles comme celles retrouvées dans des habitats oligotrophes tels que les lacs, déserts, parois des grottes ou la litière végétale récalcitrante du sol où les actinobactéries dominent. Bien que certains facteurs biotiques et abiotiques ont été reconnus comme modulateurs de l'incidence des actinobactéries dans ces écosystèmes, l'influence des conditions changeantes provoquées par la pression anthropique sur leurs communautés reste inconnue. L´objectif principal de cette thèse est donc de déterminer des différences dans les communautés d’actinobactéries sous l’influence anthropique directe (visiteurs humains modifiant le microenvironnement des grottes, partie 1) et indirecte (facteurs liées à des changements climatiques : précipitations ou qualité de la litière végétale, partie 2) dans deux habitats : litière végétale du sol et parois des grottes, où les actinobactéries jouent un rôle important et prédominent. Dans une première partie de la thèse, nous avons suivi les communautés d´actinobactéries dans des parois de grottes calcaires françaises affectées différemment par l´homme (grottes vierges ou anthropisées). Pour la détection d´espèces potentiellement pathogènes ou productrices de pigments à partir d´ADN environnemental (Illumina MiSeq), nous avons utilisé le marqueur moléculaire hsp65 spécifique pour le genre Actinobacteria. Une attention particulière a été portée á la grotte de Lascaux, abritant des peintures paléolithiques et étant une des plus affectées d’un point de vue anthropique. Une comparaison au niveau de plusieurs salles affectées de façon différente par l’intervention humaine ainsi qu´entre zones des mêmes salles avec des marques visuelles d´origine microbienne sur les peintures murales a été faite dans cette grotte (article I). Dans la deuxième partie, nous avons surveillé les communautés d’actinobactéries de la litière végétale au cours d´un processus de décomposition sous conditions modifiées prévues (précipitation modifiée (article IV), différents types, qualités et origines de litière, (articles II, III, IV) dans différentes forêts (chêne méditerranéen et pin (article IV)), épicéa de montagne et hêtre (article III), forêt tempérée de hêtre (article II) et prairie (article II)). Nos résultats montrent que les communautés d’actinobactéries étaient fortement dépendantes du statut anthropisé/vierge des grottes (partie 1) ainsi que des changements climatiques et de qualité des litières pendant la décomposition (partie 2). Dans les grottes (partie 1), la structure des communautés d’actinobactéries a indiqué des perturbations anthropiques, où des taxons typiques d’environnements vierges ou anthropiques comprenant des espèces potentiellement pathogènes (identifiées selon le marqueur hsp65) ont été trouvés ayant un rapport avec l’anthropisation (article I). Lors de la décomposition (partie 2), nous avons constaté que les actinobactéries i) étaient affectées par le type de litière quel que soit son origine, mais leur dominance sur de la litière récalcitrante n´a pas entraîné une décomposition plus rapide (articles II, III, IV), ii) n´étaient pas directement affectés par les conditions climatiques (article III, IV) mais plutôt spécifiques au site (articles II, III, IV) avec du potentiel pour dominer dans des forêts de conifères introduites (articles III, IV), et iii) étaient influencées par des conditions différentes à celles des champignons (articles II, III, IV). Dans l´ensemble, les actinobactéries répondent principalement aux changements anthropiques au niveau de communautés ou d’espèces et sont capables de s 'adapter á ces changements conduisant á leur persistance dans les écosystèmes.

This paper extends the work of Pindyck, R. S. 2012. “Uncertain Outcomes and Climate Change Policy.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 63 (3): 289–303. by taking into consideration a large class of different utility functions of economic agents. As in Pindyck, R. S. 2012. “Uncertain Outcomes and Climate Change Policy.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 63 (3): 289–303, instead of considering a social utility function that is characterized by constant relative risk aversion (C.R.R.A), we use the expo-power utility function of Saha, A. 1993. “Expo-power Utility: A ‘Flexible’ Form for Absolute and Relative Risk Aversion.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 75 (4): 905–13. In fact, depending on the choice of the expo-power utility function parameters, we cover a diverse range of utility functions. Apart from covering the other utility functions that a C.R.R.A omits, the Expo-power utility function permits us to discern if under the other utility-regimes of economic agents, the willingness to pay remains more affected by uncertain outcomes than certain outcomes when we vary the expectation and standard deviation of the temperature’s probability distribution. Our paper has maintained the small-tailed gamma distributions of temperature and economic impact of Pindyck, R. S. 2012. “Uncertain Outcomes and Climate Change Policy.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 63 (3): 289–303. not only because they hinder infinite future welfare losses (for an exponential utility function), but because it is easy to change some moments of the distribution (jointly or holding the others fixed) while studying how uncertainty influences the willingness to pay as explained in Pindyck, R. S. 2012. “Uncertain Outcomes and Climate Change Policy.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 63 (3): 289–303.

PurposeThis paper uses a historical case study, the controversy over the possibility of climatic extremes caused by hydrogen bomb tests on Pacific Ocean atolls during the 1950s, to show how, in a context of few scientific data and high uncertainty, political affiliations and public concerns shaped two types of argumentation, the “energy” and the “precautionary” arguments.Design/methodology/approachSystematic analysis of publications 1954–1956: scientific and semiscientific articles, publications of C.-N. Martin and contemporary newspaper articles, especially from the Asia–Pacific region.FindingsFirst, epistemological and scientific reasoning about the likelihood of extreme natural events aligned to political convictions and pressure. Second, a geographical and social distribution of arguments: the relativizing “energy argument” prevailed in English-language scientific journals, while the “precautionary argument” dominated in popular journals and newspapers published worldwide. Third, while the “energy argument” attained general scientific consensus within two years, it lost out in the long run. The proponents of the “precautionary argument” raised relevant research questions that, though first rejected in the 1950s, later exposed the fallacies of the “energy argument” (shown for the case of the climatologist William W. Kellogg).Originality/valueIn contrast to the existing secondary literature, this paper presents a balanced view of the weaknesses and strengths of two lines of arguments in the 1950s. Further, this historical study sheds light on how once-discarded scientific theories may ultimately be reconsidered in a completely different political and scientific context, thus justifying the original precautionary argument.

International audience; Northern boreal forests are characterized by accumulation of accumulation of peat (e.g., known as paludification). The functioning of northern boreal forest species and their capacity to adapt to environmental changes appear to depend on soil conditions. Climate warming is expected to have particularly pronounced effects on paludified boreal ecosystems and can alter current forest species composition and adaptation by changing soil conditions such as moisture, temperature regimes, and soil respiration. In this paper, we review and synthesize results from various reported studies (i.e., 88 research articles cited hereafter) to assess the effects of climatic warming on soil conditions of paludified forests in North America. Predictions that global warming may increase the decomposition rate must be considered in combination with its impact on soil moisture, which appears to be a limiting factor. Local adaptation or acclimation to current climatic conditions is occurring in boreal forests, which is likely to be important for continued ecosystem stability in the context of climate change. The most commonly cited response of boreal forest species to global warming is a northward migration that tracks the climate and soil conditions (e.g., temperature and moisture) to which they are adapted. Yet, some constraints may influence this kind of adaptation, such as water availability, changes in fire regimes, decomposer adaptations, and the dynamic of peat accumulation. In this paper, as a study case, we examined an example of potential effects of climatic warming on future paludification changes in the eastern lowland region of Canada through three different combined hypothetical scenarios based on temperature and precipitation (e.g., unchanged, increase, or decrease). An increase scenario in precipitation will likely favor peat accumulation in boreal forest stands prone to paludification and facilitate forested peatland expansion into upland forest, while decreased or unchanged precipitation combined with an increase in temperature will probably favor succession of forested peatlands to upland boreal forests. Each of the three scenarios were discussed in this study, and consequent silvicultural treatment options were suggested for each scenario to cope with anticipated soil and species changes in the boreal forests. We concluded that, despite the fact boreal soils will not constrain adaptation of boreal forests, some consequences of climatic warming may reduce the ability of certain species to respond to natural disturbances such as pest and disease outbreaks, and extreme weather events.

Faced with increasing urbanization and uncertainties linked to climate change, the scientific community has integrated the concept of resilience into urban management practices. Once revolutionary, now a buzzword, resilience is a concept that is difficult to transform into an integrated tool that stakeholders accept and adopt. This paper offers a perspective on the different interpretations of resilience, its difficult implementation and the tools that seek to operationalize it. The underlying questions are how these tools are appropriated by urban managers and territorial decision-makers, and how the theoretical concept can be translated into resilient urban development. This research paper reviews the work on resilience and investigates its use and operationalization, comparing two different approaches – organizational (Canada) and holistic (France) – that aim to clarify and operationalize resilience. These theoretical approaches have been combined to create workshops for urban managers so they can move from theoretical results to practical applications.

International audience; Nowadays, human activities are causing an important collapse in global biodiversity while also affecting the global climate considerably. Despite historical agreements on both biodiversity conservation and climate change, humanity keeps changing the face of the planet at an increasing rate. An undisputed factor in global change is the excessive and growing human consumption. On the other hand, it seems that linking humanity's environmental impact with population growth has been quite controversial in the international debate, as if, somehow, biodiversity loss and climate change were unconnected to it. To this purpose, this paper reviews (1) the impacts of continuing human population growth on global biodiversity and climate through the examples of food and energy production, (2) changing perceptions about population growth and (3) the potential solutions that could be used to address this issue. Despite not the only factor, the research reviewed in this paper highlights that continuing population growth plays a substantial global role in the destruction of biodiversity and in climate change, and this role urgently needs more attention in scientific, policy and public circles. Both unsustainable population levels and excessive consumption are part of the equation and must be addressed concurrently in developing and developed countries. Several non-coercive strategies are possible to address the population question, mostly through access to education and contraception, in order to empower women through the basic human right to have children by choice. In any case, although limiting population growth may not be the only solution required to fix current environmental problems, ignoring it is likely to hinder any ecologically sustainable future.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to review the contributions of the special issue papers while presenting four broad research avenues. Design/methodology/approach The paper is based on a review of current literature on climate change and carbon accounting. Findings The authors propose four broad avenues for research: climate change as a systemic and social issue, the multi-layered transition apparatus for climate change, climate vulnerability and the future of carbon accounting. Practical implications The authors connect this study with the requested institutional changes for climate breakdown, making the paper relevant for practice and policy. The authors notably point to education and professions as institutions that will request bold and urgent makeovers. Social implications The authors urge academics to reconsider climate change as a social issue, requiring to use new theoretical lenses such as emotions, eco-feminism, material politics and “dispositifs” to tackle this grand challenge. Originality/value This paper switches the authors’ viewpoint on carbon accounting to look at it from a more systemic and social lens.

International audience; This paper aims to assess the prospects for French climate policies after the Yellow Vests crisis halted the planned increase in the carbon tax. From a large representative survey, we elicit knowledge, perceptions and values over climate change, we examine opinions relative to carbon taxation, and we assess support for other climate policies. Specific attention is given to the link between perceptions of climate change and attitudes towards policies. The paper also studies in detail the determinants of attitudes in terms of political and socio-demographic variables. Among many results, we find limited knowledge but high concern for climate change. We also document a large rejection of the carbon tax but majority support for stricter norms and green investments, and reveal the rationales behind these preferences. Our study entails policy recommendations, such as an information campaign on climate change. Indeed, we find that climate awareness increases support for climate policies but no evidence for the formation of opinions through partisan cues as in the US, suggesting that better access to science could foster support for climate policies.

This paper extends the work of Pindyck by taking into consideration a large class family of different utility functions of economic agents. As in Pindyck, instead of consideringa social utility function that is characterized by constant relative risk aversion (C.R.R.A), we use the expo-power utility function of Saha. In fact, depending on the choice of the expo-power utility function parameters, we cover a diverse range1of utility functions and besides covering the other utility functions that a C.R.R.A omits, Expo-power function permits usto discern if under the other behaviors of economic agents, the willingness to pay remainsmore affected by uncertain outcomes than certain outcomes, when we vary the expectationand standard deviation of the temperature distribution probability. Our paper has maintained the small-tailed gamma distributions of temperature and economic impact of Pindyck, notonly because they hinder infinite future welfare losses (for an exponential utility function), but because it is easy to change some moments of the distribution (jointly or holding the othersfixed) while studying how uncertainty influences the willingness to pay as explained in Pindyck.

In semi-arid areas, many ecosystems and activities depend essentially on water availability. In Morocco, the increase of water demands combined to climate change induced decrease of precipitation put a lot of pressure on groundwater. This paper reports the results of updating and evaluation of groundwater datasets with regards to climate scenarios and institutional choices. The continuous imbalance between groundwater extraction and recharge caused a dramatic decline in groundwater levels (20 to 65 m in the past 30 years). Additionally, Morocco suffers from the degradation in groundwater quality due to seawater intrusion, nitrate pollution and natural salinity changes. Climate data analysis and scenarios predict that temperatures will increase by 2 to 4 &deg, C and precipitation will decrease by 53% in all catchments over this century. Consequently, surface water availability will drastically decrease, which will lead to more extensive use of groundwater. Without appropriate measures, this situation will jeopardize water security in Morocco. In this paper, we zoom on the case the Souss-Massa basin, where management plans (artificial recharge, seawater desalination, and wastewater reuse) have been adopted to restore groundwater imbalance or, at least, mitigate the recorded deficits. These plans may save water for future generations and sustain crop production.

WOS:000541263200027; This paper presents the results of surveys conducted with managers of West African Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and focuses on the threats and the extent to which they are taken into account in the management process. The data and information derived from the surveys are used to provide a reference situation and to develop a complete inventory of threats faced by MPAs in the region. MPA managers identified unmanaged fisheries, coastal erosion, overexploitation of natural resources and pollution as the main threats to the sustainability of MPAs in the region. Climate change, although considered to be diffuse, is also a concern for managers. However, management measures are aimed (predominantly) at preventing overfishing and the overexploitation of terrestrial natural resources. Therefore, coastal erosion, pollution and climate change are only indirectly (and marginally) targeted by these management measures. Moreover, the management measures implemented i.e. monitoring, awareness raising and surveillance are insufficient and mainly aligned with the capacity of the local institutions. However, what is actually needed is more far reaching and adaptive actions to mitigate the current threats. The low financial, technical and human resources largely explain the limited scope of management actions taken. Coupled with the information and data deficit, which increases the inertia regarding threats that have been recurrent for more than a decade, management measures have not been sufficient in managing MPAs in the region. This paper recommends that the links between pressures on MPAs, technical recommendations and resulting management actions must be reinforced.

This PhD takes place in a context of climate change (IPCC 2018) and a general decline in fish species. The objective of this PhD thesis was to define environmental control over the reproduction of the allis shad. Using 4 main studies with several modelling tools (Manly index, BRT model, HoOS model and flirtyShadBrain model), we studied this environmental control and assessed the future impact of climate change.The first step in assessing the impact of habitat changes was to test the influence of environmental factors on shad reproduction (paper #1, paper #2 and the flirtyShadBrain model). We first explored the influence of temperature, then tested several environmental factors on shad reproduction. In practice, we evaluate that the shad is a photoperiodic species. Day length may be the seasonal data that triggers migration, and temperature and flow are used for short-term decisions (final choice to reproduce with social benchmarks). We used this knowledge to explore the potential impact of climate change. According to our multifactorial projections, it would appear that allis shad spawners will not be affected by future global warming for the RCP 2.6 scenario, and that even in the worst case scenario (RCP 8.5), habitat favorability should even increase, although with an earlier favourable period. Thus, climate change does not appear to be a major threat to this species., Cette thèse se place dans un contexte de dérèglement climatique (IPCC 2018) et de déclin généralisé des espèces de poissons. L'objectif de cette thèse était de définir le contrôle environnemental sur la reproduction de la grande alose. A l’aide de 4 études principales avec plusieurs outils de modélisation (l'indice de Manly, le modèle BRT, le modèle HoOS et le modèle flirtyShadBrain), nous avons étudié ce contrôle environnemental et évalué l’impact futur du dérèglement climatique.La première étape pour évaluer l'impact des changements d'habitat a été de tester l'influence des facteurs environnementaux sur la reproduction de l'alose (papier #1, papier #2 et le modèle flirtyShadBrain). Nous avons d'abord exploré l'influence de la température, puis nous avons testé plusieurs facteurs environnementaux sur la reproduction de l'alose. Concrètement, nous évaluons que l’alose est une espèce photopériodique. La durée du jour est peut-être la donnée saisonnière qui déclenche la migration, et la température et le débit sont utilisés pour les décisions à court terme (choix final de se reproduire avec les repères sociaux). Nous avons utilisé ces connaissances pour explorer l'impact potentiel du dérèglement climatique. Selon nos projections multifactorielles, il semblerait que les géniteurs de grande alose ne seront pas touchés par le futur réchauffement de la planète pour le scénario RCP 2.6, et que même dans le pire des scénarios (RCP 8.5), la favorabilité de l'habitat devrait même augmenter avec toutefois une période favorable plus précoce. Ainsi, le changement climatique n'apparaît pas comme une menace majeure pour cette espèce.

International audience; The paper proposes to use the utility theory for the synthesis of multivariate models of assessing the impact of changing climatic conditions and the disaster assessment in the implementation of the socio-economic approach. The work contrasts two situations of environmental impact (external influence) on the society systems. A feature of each of the situations is the duration and intensity of impact, which leads to its unique consequences. Socio-economic approach takes account equally the economic, social and environmental impacts. The paper proposes a universal model to assess the impact of external influences on the system. Considering information technologies that provide a procedure for assessing risks and consequences of natural disasters in socio-economic systems.

International audience; The general public expects relevant, comprehensible and acceptable communication on climate change. Many efforts have been, and are still, being made to make the message clear and comprehensible. This paper focuses on the acceptability of the message by the receiver, to move from awareness of climate change to concrete action, which is seldom discussed in the literature. In order to make a climate change communication assessment, we choose to take as reference the Prochaska’s behavioural stage of change model. Our analysis suggests that taking into account emotions and cognition mechanisms is needed in order to accompany people to better process the information and integrate it to move toward action. This paper highlights different commonly used communication practices and the underlying brain mechanisms involved in each one. A better understanding of those mechanisms should help to improve the message’s receivability in communication about climate change. In turn, it will help to move from individuals knowledge into concrete action. By this way, we hope to provide inspiration to communicators in order to better accompany people in their process from awareness to action.

International audience; Purpose This paper addresses the need for a globally regionalized method for life cycle impact assessment (LCIA), integrating multiple state-of-the-art developments as well as damages on water and carbon areas of concern within a consistent LCIA framework. This method, named IMPACT World+, is the update of the IMPACT 2002+, LUCAS, and EDIP methods. This paper first presents the IMPACT World+ novelties and results and then analyzes the spatial variability for each regionalized impact category. Methods With IMPACT World+, we propose a midpoint-damage framework with four distinct complementary viewpoints to present an LCIA profile: (1) midpoint impacts, (2) damage impacts, (3) damages on human health, ecosystem quality, and resources & ecosystem service areas of protection, and (4) damages on water and carbon areas of concerns. Most of the regional impact categories have been spatially resolved and all the long-term impact categories have been subdivided between shorter-term damages (over the 100 years after the emission) and long-term damages. The IMPACT World+ method integrates developments in the following categories, all structured according to fate (or competition/scarcity), exposure, exposure response, and severity: (a) Complementary to the global warming potential (GWP100), the IPCC Global Temperature Potentials (GTP100) are used as a proxy for climate change long-term impacts at midpoint. At damage level, shorter-term damages (over the first 100 years after emission) are also differentiated from long-term damages. (b) Marine acidification impact is based on the same fate model as climate change, combined with the H + concentration affecting 50% of the exposed species. (c) For mineral resources depletion Responsible editor: Serenella Sala Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi. impact, the material competition scarcity index is applied as a midpoint indicator. (d) Terrestrial and freshwater acidification impact assessment combines, at a resolution of 2°× 2.5°(latitude × longitude), global atmospheric source-deposition relationships with soil and water ecosystems' sensitivity. (e) Freshwater eutrophication impact is spatially assessed at a resolution grid of 0.5°× 0.5°, based on a global hydrological dataset. (f) Ecotoxicity and human toxicity impact are based on the parameterized version of USEtox for continents. We consider indoor emissions and differentiate the impacts of metals and persistent organic pollutants for the first 100 years from longer-term impacts. (g) Impacts on human health related to particulate matter formation are modeled using the USEtox regional archetypes to calculate intake fractions and epidemiologically derived exposure response factors. (h) Water consumption impacts are modeled using the consensus-based scarcity indicator AWARE as a proxy midpoint, whereas damages account for competition and adaptation capacity. (i) Impacts on ecosystem quality from land transformation and occupation are empirically characterized at the biome level. Results and discussion We analyze the magnitude of global potential damages for each impact indicator, based on an estimation of the total annual anthropogenic emissions and extractions at the global scale (i.e., Bdoing the LCA of the world^). Similarly with ReCiPe and IMPACT 2002+, IMPACT World+ finds that (a) climate change and impacts of particulate matter formation have a dominant contribution to global human health impacts whereas ionizing radiation, ozone layer depletion, and photochemical oxidant formation have a low contribution and (b) climate change and land use have a dominant contribution to global ecosystem quality impact. (c) New impact indicators introduced in IMPACT World+ and not considered in ReCiPe or IMPACT 2002+, in particular water consumption impacts on human health and the long-term impacts of marine acidification on ecosystem quality, are significant contributors to the overall global potential damage. According to the areas of concern version of IMPACT World+ applied to the total annual world emissions and extractions, damages on the water area of concern, carbon area of concern, and the remaining damages (not considered in those two areas of concern) are of the same order of magnitude, highlighting the need to consider all the impact categories. The spatial variability of human health impacts related to exposure to toxic substances and particulate matter is well reflected by using outdoor rural, outdoor urban, and indoor environment archetypes. For Bhuman toxicity cancer^impact of substances emitted to continental air, the variability between continents is of two orders of magnitude, which is substantially lower than the 13 orders of magnitude total variability across substances. For impacts of water consumption on human health, the spatial variability across extraction locations is substantially higher than the variations between different water qualities. For regionalized impact categories affecting ecosystem quality (acidification, eutrophication, and land use), the characterization factors of half of the regions (25th to 75th percentiles) are within one to two orders of magnitude and the 95th percentile within three to four orders of magnitude, which is higher than the variability between substances, highlighting the relevance of regionalizing. Conclusions IMPACT World+ provides characterization factors within a consistent impact assessment framework for all region-alized impacts at four complementary resolutions: global default, continental, country, and native (i.e., original and non-aggre-gated) resolutions. IMPACT World+ enables the practitioner to parsimoniously account for spatial variability and to identify the elementary flows to be regionalized in priority to increase the discriminating power of LCA.

The Stern/Nordhaus controversy has polarized the widely disparate beliefs about what to do in order to tackle the climate challenge. To explain differences in results and policy recommendations, comments following the publication of the Stern Review have mainly focused on the role played by the discount rate. A closer look at the actual drivers of the controversy reveals however that Stern and Nordhaus also disagree on two other parameters: technical progress on abatement costs and the climate sensitivity. This paper aims at appraising the relative impacts of such key drivers of the controversy on the social cost of carbon and climate policy recommendations. To this end, we use the flexible integrated assessment model RESPONSE which allows us to compare very diverse worldviews, including Stern and Nordhaus' ones within the same modelling framework and map the relative impacts of beliefs on the three key drivers of the controversy. Furthermore we appraise quantitatively, by means of a linear statistical model, the impacts on results of an extended set of core parameters of RESPONSE. We show that beliefs on long term economic growth, technical progress, the form of the climate damage function and the climate sensitivity have an impact as important as beliefs on pure time preference. Hence, we can qualify the role played by the discount rate in the Stern/Nordhaus controversy and more broadly in the definition of climate policies.

A lot of attention has been given to the importance of riparian zones as a nitrogen buffer during the last 30 years. Expectations were high and have resulted often in mismanagement practices. This paper aims at revisiting during this period the main research advancement, questions generated, and the progress in understanding the role of interactions between land and water in river system functioning. We describe how the seminal papers published in the 1980s on the role of riparian zone as nitrogen buffer have triggered several fundamental and applied questions related to the mechanisms at stake or their long efficiency in different hydrological and climatic contexts. We then address how this local riparian buffer capacity can be evaluated at the small drainage basin scale. We finally touch upon the restoration and protection of riparian zones in the context of climate change and especially its potential role on local and global water fluxes and other key aquatic ecosystem functions.

Este artículo contiene 13 páginas, 4 figuras, 2 tablas., Intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES) encompass fluvial ecosystems that eventually stop flowing and run dry at some point in space and time. During the dry phase, channels of IRES consist mainly of dry riverbeds (DRBs), prevalent yet widely unexplored ecotones between dry and wet phases that can strongly influence the biogeochemistry of fluvial networks. DRBs are often overlooked because they do not strictly belong to either domain of soil or freshwater science. Due to this dual character of DRBs, we suggest that concepts and knowledge from soil science can be used to expand the understanding of IRES biogeochemistry. Based on this idea, we propose that DRBs can be conceptually understood as early stage soils exhibiting many similarities with soils through two main forces: i) time since last sediment transport event, and ii) the development status of stabilizing structures (e.g. soil crusts and/or vascular plants). Our analysis suggests that while DRBs and soils may differ in master physical attributes (e.g. soil horizons vs fluvial sedimentary facies), they become rapidly comparable in terms of microbial communities and biogeochemical processes. We further propose that drivers of DRBs biogeochemistry are similar to those of soils and, hence, concepts and methods used in soil science are transferable to DRBs research. Finally, our paper presents future research directions to advance the knowledge of DRBs and to understand their role in the biogeochemistry of intermittent fluvial networks., This paper resulted from discussions conducted as part of working group 3 “Coupled Aquatic-terrestrial Biogeochemistry in IRES” based upon work from COST Action CA15113 (SMIRES, Science and Management of Intermittent rivers and Ephemeral streams; www. smires.eu) supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). Additional support was provided for MIA by an Alexander von Humboldt Grant (Ref: 1162886) and a Juan de la Cierva Grant (Ref: FJCI-2015-26192), for CM-L by an Early Career Fellowship from the Graduate Research School (GRS) at BTU Cottbus-Senftenberg and by the French Agency for Biodiversity (ONEMA-AFB, Action 13, Colmatage, échange snappe-rivière et processus biogéochimiques), for MA by the Spanish Government (Ref: DISECO CGL-2014-55-405-R) and by a Juan de la Cierva Grant (Ref: IJCI-2015-23500), for NC by a Juan de la Cierva Grant (Ref: FJCI-2014-23064), for SB by Spanish Government (Ref: NICUS CGL-2014-55234-JIN), for RG by the Science and Technology Agency of Murcia Region (SENECA Foundation, Ref: 19525/PI/14), for OS by the SMART joint Doctorate Programme (Science for the MAnagement of Rivers and their Tidal systems, funded by the Erasmus Mundus programme of the European Union) and for Fig. 4. Conceptual framework indicating the degree of similarity in three dimensions of dry riverbeds (DRBs): physical structure, microbial community and biogeochemistry, with soils as a function of two main drivers: (T) time since the last sediment transport event, and (S) development status of stabilizing structures (e.g. biocrusts and/or vascular plants). M.I. Arce et al. Earth-Science Reviews 188 (2019) 441–453 449 DvS by the Spanish Government (Ref: CGL2016-77487-R) and Basque Government (Ref: IT951-16). Symbols for diagrams used in the art work are courtesy of the Integration and Application Network (ian.umces. edu/symbols).

International audience; AbstractKey messageUsing long-term measurements in a mature beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)-dominated forest located in east Belgium, this paper showed that spring and autumn temperature increases during the last two decades led to an earlier end and a shortening of the growing season. These phenological shifts impact negatively but not significantly the forest annual net ecosystem productivity.ContextThe mechanisms controlling temperate forest phenology are not fully understood nor are the impacts of climate change and the consequences for forest productivity.AimsThe aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of how temperate forest phenology and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) interplay and respond to temperature and its evolution.MethodsIndicators of leaf phenology and productivity dynamics at the start and the end of the growing season, as well as combinations of these indicators (length of the growing season), were derived from a long-term (1997–2014) dataset of eddy covariance and light transmission measurements taken over a mature beech-dominated temperate forest.ResultsThe start and the end of the growing season were correlated to spring (and autumn, for the end) temperatures. Despite no trends in annual average temperatures being detected during the observation period, April and November temperatures significantly increased. As a result, an earlier but slower start and an earlier end, inducing a shorter length of the growing season, were observed over the studied period. The first shift positively impacts the mixed forest NEP but is mainly related to the presence of conifers in the subplot. The earlier end of the growing season, more related to beech phenology, negatively impacts the forest NEP. Overall, these two effects partially compensate each other, leading to a non-significant impact on NEP.ConclusionIncreasing temperatures over the 18-year studied period shortened the growing season length, without affecting significantly the mixed forest NEP. However, as beeches are only affected by the earlier end of the growing season, this suggests a phenologically driven beech productivity reduction in the forest.