1. Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment
- Author
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Mikhail A. Semenov, Benjamin Dumont, T. Palosuo, Stefan Fronzek, Davide Cammarano, Reimund P. Rötter, Pierre Stratonovitch, Jukka Höhn, Miroslav Trnka, Frank Ewert, Ignacio J. Lorite, Jaromir Krzyszczak, Zacharias Steinmetz, Alfredo Rodríguez, Julien Minet, A.J.W. de Wit, Timothy R. Carter, Fulu Tao, Holger Hoffmann, Petr Hlavinka, Thomas Gaiser, Iwan Supit, C. Nendel, Marco Bindi, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Françoise Ruget, John R. Porter, Samuel Buis, Altaaf Mechiche-Alami, Roberto Ferrise, Yu Chen, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Marcos Lana, Piotr Baranowski, Nina Pirttioja, María Luisa Cuenca Montesino, František Jurečka, ETSIAAB, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), University of Florence (UNIFI), Junta de Andalucia, Andalusian Agricultural Research Institute (IFAPA), Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Natural Resources Institute Finland, Institute of Agrophysics, Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [Nouvelle-Calédonie]), Dpt. AgroBioChem & Terra, Bayer SA NV, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Gembloux], Université de Liège, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz (INRES), Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Global Change Research Institute CAS, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Rothamsted Research, RIFCON GmbH, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), TROPAGS, Department of Crop Sciences, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, INIA, MACSUR01-UPM,D.M. 24064/7303/15,(MINECO, CGL2012-38923-C02-02,decisions: 277276 and 277403,project IGA AF MENDELU no. 7/2015,LO1415 NAZV QJ1310123, BIOSTRATEG1/271322/3/NCBR/2015 and GyroScan, contract number BIOSTRATEG2/298782/11/NCBR/2016, European Project: 603416, Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), Instituto Andaluz de Investigación y Formación Agraria y Pesquera (IFAPA), Natural resources institute Finland, Mendel University in Brno (MENDELU), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence (UniFI), Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Global Change Research Centre (CzechGlobe), Lund University [Lund], University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), and Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
- Subjects
Mediterranean climate ,Irrigation ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] ,ta1171 ,Water en Voedsel ,Climate change ,Agricultural engineering ,01 natural sciences ,Crop model ensemble ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Mediterranean cropping system ,2. Zero hunger ,WIMEK ,Water and Food ,Phenology ,04 agricultural and veterinary sciences ,Vernalization ,ta4111 ,15. Life on land ,Soil type ,Climate Resilience ,Agronomy ,Klimaatbestendigheid ,13. Climate action ,Wheat adaptation ,040103 agronomy & agriculture ,0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries ,Environmental science ,Animal Science and Zoology ,Rainfed ,Adaptation ,Sensitivity analysis ,Agronomy and Crop Science ,Cropping ,AOCK concept - Abstract
This work was financially supported by the Spanish National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA, MACSUR01-UPM), the Italian Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (D.M. 24064/7303/15) through FACCE MACSUR − Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security, a FACCE JPI knowledge hub; MULCLIVAR, from the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO, CGL2012-38923-C02-02); the Academy of Finland (decisions: 277276 and 277403), the EU FP7 IMPRESSIONS project (grant agreement no. 603416), the NORFASYS project (decision nos. 268277 and 292944) and PLUMES project (decision nos. 277403 and 292836); project IGA AF MENDELU no. 7/2015 with the support of the Specific University Research Grant provided by the Ministry of Education, Youth Sports of the Czech Republic; the Ministry of Education, Youth Sports of the Czech Republic within the National Sustainability Programme I (NPU I), grant number LO1415 NAZV QJ1310123 the Polish National Centre for Research and Development in frame of the projects: LCAgri, contract number BIOSTRATEG1/271322/3/NCBR/2015 and GyroScan, contract number BIOSTRATEG2/298782/11/NCBR/2016.; Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the “According to Our Current Knowledge” (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.
- Published
- 2017
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