1. Reassessing forest products demand functions in Europe using a panel cointegration approach
- Author
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Olivier Damette, Paul Rougieux, Laboratoire d'Economie Forestière (LEF), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée (BETA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), French Ministry of Agriculture E 21/2014 Greater Nancy area, French National Research Agency, Agence Nationale de la Recherche [Lab of Excellence ARBRE] ANR-11-LABX-0002-01, AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Université de Lorraine (UL)-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and ANR-11-LABX-0002,ARBRE,Recherches Avancées sur l'Arbre et les Ecosytèmes Forestiers(2011)
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,UNIT-ROOT TESTS ,produit à base de bois ,cointégration ,TIME-SERIES ,FINITE-SAMPLE PROPERTIES ,WOOD ,PAPERBOARD ,7. Clean energy ,JEL: L - Industrial Organization/L.L7 - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction/L.L7.L73 - Forest Products ,0502 economics and business ,Econometrics ,Economics ,Heterogenous panels ,050207 economics ,panel ,050205 econometrics ,Consumption (economics) ,INCOME ,JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C2 - Single Equation Models • Single Variables/C.C2.C23 - Panel Data Models • Spatio-temporal Models ,Cointegration ,produit forestier ,05 social sciences ,durabilité ,HETEROGENEOUS PANELS ,ECONOMETRICS ,Object (computer science) ,sustainability ,[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance ,JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q1 - Agriculture/Q.Q1.Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis • Prices ,13. Climate action ,PRICE ELASTICITIES ,forest product ,europe ,CROSS-SECTION - Abstract
In a panel of European countries, we analyse paper products, sawnwood and wood panels consumption data. With this object, we use a classical demand model where national consumption depends on real GDP and real prices. In contrast to previous panel estimations in the literature, we highlight non-stationarity time series which can lead to spurious regressions. We explicitly take into account the issue by using recent panel cointegration techniques. Cointegration is present for printing paper and fibreboard, though less clear cut for other products.Then we estimate demand elasticities and find that GDP elasticities are significantly lower than estimates from the literature. Finally, we simulate the implications of modified demand elasticities by using a partial equilibrium model of the forest sector. For most products, changes in elasticities would lead to lower projected demand and lower prices over a 20-year time horizon. Lower demand for solid wood and wood fibre would lead to less tensions with fuel wood- and wood-based chemical markets. In a context of rising interest for renewable bio-based products, updated long-term demand models contribute to the analysis of the forest sector’s sustainability.
- Published
- 2018
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